The new Corona virus, should we worry?

balds

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Correct. 60-90% of our cases are really "cases". Add that to the database cross-referencing and the shenanigans with multi-cause death certificates and likely 50% or more of our Covid deaths are really "Covid Deaths".
 

JimmyJamesMD

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Its awesome that a trillion dollar industry with billions of dollars on the line gets to self administer its own tests. No need for any oversight.

That being said, two points. If they were turning positives into negatives, no biggie, because nobody is getting violently sick or dying. Second, i think its a big scam. So good for the NFL.

And no baseball deaths or violently ill.

No wonder the NFL said no thanks to bubbles. They know the ruse.

Please use your intuition, people. Its a better indicator of whats actually going on.
 

BarnBurner

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Its awesome that a trillion dollar industry with billions of dollars on the line gets to self administer its own tests. No need for any oversight.

That being said, two points. If they were turning positives into negatives, no biggie, because nobody is getting violently sick or dying. Second, i think its a big scam. So good for the NFL.

And no baseball deaths or violently ill.

No wonder the NFL said no thanks to bubbles. They know the ruse.

Please use your intuition, people. Its a better indicator of whats actually going on.
This.

Where are the mask police and the virtuous ones slamming this sham? Yes you g......
 

JimmyJamesMD

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Wow! This is as I expected. We would have something similar here had we not screwed up New York and New Jersey so badly and if we would have skipped the lockdowns. Instead we will have a retarded reduction in the mortality rate because of the long fruitless flattening effort.

So two things:

What happens to deaths if these failed states never incorporate their failed nursing home strategies? Sending old people to die.

Second, and this ties into the first, we saw that graphic of demographics by age range, and the IFR.

The 70+ was ~5%. Has anyone seen a breakdown of 70-79, 80-89, and 90+? My guess is that the majority of those 5% fatalities come from 80+.
 

justthefacts

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So is MN and WI. Yet MN has significantly more restrictions in place than SD or WI.

More proof the statewide restrictions do nothing.
This post is 6 days old.

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BarnBurner

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So two things:

What happens to deaths if these failed states never incorporate their failed nursing home strategies? Sending old people to die.

Second, and this ties into the first, we saw that graphic of demographics by age range, and the IFR.

The 70+ was ~5%. Has anyone seen a breakdown of 70-79, 80-89, and 90+? My guess is that the majority of those 5% fatalities come from 80+.
You notice justnofacts has not touched that one........ever. And wont.
 

Bad Gopher

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A little over a week ago, my younger daughter reported that she'd tested positive. She and her teammates are tested weekly per NCAA protocols. She's now gotten through her quarantine period symptom free...which means that she either had it or she didn't (it could have been a false positive).

A couple days after getting her test results, her roommate came down with symptoms and subsequently got a positive test--even though my daughter had been strictly quarantining in her bedroom with her roommates delivering food to her and using the other bathroom.

She's not sure where she caught it or whether her roommate's infection was related to her or not...or even if she had it or not. That's how there can be such mystery surrounding a situation: you have to account for the possibility of a false positive. Ironically, if it WAS a false positive, the danger would be her catching it from her roommate instead of the other way around.

As far as who she caught it from (if she even had it), her hypothesis is the professor for her one in-person class, who lectured without a face covering with my daughter in the front row of the classroom and later admitted to being sypmtomatic.

I've told her to assume it was a false positive and to continue to exercise caution.
 

justthefacts

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A little over a week ago, my younger daughter reported that she'd tested positive. She and her teammates are tested weekly per NCAA protocols. She's now gotten through her quarantine period symptom free...which means that she either had it or she didn't (it could have been a false positive).

A couple days after getting her test results, her roommate came down with symptoms and subsequently got a positive test--even though my daughter had been strictly quarantining in her bedroom with her roommates delivering food to her and using the other bathroom.

She's not sure where she caught it or whether her roommate's infection was related to her or not...or even if she had it or not. That's how there can be such mystery surrounding a situation: you have to account for the possibility of a false positive. Ironically, if it WAS a false positive, the danger would be her catching it from her roommate instead of the other way around.

As far as who she caught it from (if she even had it), her hypothesis is the professor for her one in-person class, who lectured without a face covering with my daughter in the front row of the classroom and later admitted to being sypmtomatic.

I've told her to assume it was a false positive and to continue to exercise caution.

The bolded parts seem inconsistent with the last sentence.
 

MplsGopher

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A little over a week ago, my younger daughter reported that she'd tested positive. She and her teammates are tested weekly per NCAA protocols. She's now gotten through her quarantine period symptom free...which means that she either had it or she didn't (it could have been a false positive).

A couple days after getting her test results, her roommate came down with symptoms and subsequently got a positive test--even though my daughter had been strictly quarantining in her bedroom with her roommates delivering food to her and using the other bathroom.

She's not sure where she caught it or whether her roommate's infection was related to her or not...or even if she had it or not. That's how there can be such mystery surrounding a situation: you have to account for the possibility of a false positive. Ironically, if it WAS a false positive, the danger would be her catching it from her roommate instead of the other way around.

As far as who she caught it from (if she even had it), her hypothesis is the professor for her one in-person class, who lectured without a face covering with my daughter in the front row of the classroom and later admitted to being sypmtomatic.

I've told her to assume it was a false positive and to continue to exercise caution.
How about an antibody test?
 

Bad Gopher

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The bolded parts seem inconsistent with the last sentence.
Well, it's really kind of a chicken-and-egg question: who's actually had it, and where did it come from? I think the only thing we know with a high degree of confidence is that her roommate did have it, as evidenced by the characteristic symptoms (lack of smell and taste).
 

justthefacts

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Well, it's really kind of a chicken-and-egg question: who's actually had it, and where did it come from? I think the only thing we know with a high degree of confidence is that her roommate did have it, as evidenced by the characteristic symptoms (lack of smell and taste).
I suppose that if she already executed her quarantine, acting as thought it's a false positive (and thus she doesn't have any immunity) is actually the safe bet.
 

bga1

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This post is 6 days old.

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South Dakota has 223 deaths, Minnesota over 2000. Deaths per million 246- Minny - 347. Is the goal to stop deaths or infections? For you, the goal is to emphasize whatever is bad....at least until after the election. Dishonesty is your thing.

By the way, the South Dakota site says that their positivity is 13% as of now 14% and long run is over 9%.
In So. Dak they don't have lefties that run to the test site once a week. If they go - they are sick.
 
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short ornery norwegian

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MN Covid-19 Update - Tues, Sept 29

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Tests 98,447 +815. (5.3% positive test rate).

health-care workers with positive cases 10,361 +90.

Cases no longer needing isolation 88,380 +1,050.

Active Cases 8,047 -246.

Deaths 2,020 +5.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,449 +2.

Total patients Hospitalized (cumulative) 7,633 +87.

Total patients in ICU (cumulative) 2,219 +18.

Total Tests processed 2,017,350 +15,257.

Number of people tested 1,406,578 +8,713.
 

bga1

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MN Covid-19 Update - Tues, Sept 29

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Tests 98,447 +815. (5.3% positive test rate).

health-care workers with positive cases 10,361 +90.

Cases no longer needing isolation 88,380 +1,050.

Active Cases 8,047 -246.

Deaths 2,020 +5.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,449 +2.

Total patients Hospitalized (cumulative) 7,633 +87.

Total patients in ICU (cumulative) 2,219 +18.

Total Tests processed 2,017,350 +15,257.

Number of people tested 1,406,578 +8,713.
Thanks for doing this. I am so curious why they changed to cumulative on the hospital and ICU patients.... What's up with that? :unsure:
 

justthefacts

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South Dakota has 223 deaths, Minnesota over 2000. Deaths per million 246- Minny - 347. Is the goal to stop deaths or infections? For you, the goal is to emphasize whatever is bad....at least until after the election. Dishonesty is your thing.

By the way, the South Dakota site says that their positivity is 13% as of now 14% and long run is over 9%.
In So. Dak they don't have lefties that run to the test site once a week. If they go - they are sick.

Positivity precedes hospitalizations and deaths. We went over this when people were pretending the spike in the Sun Belt was fine and cool
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Positivity precedes hospitalizations and deaths. We went over this when people were pretending the spike in the Sun Belt was fine and cool

Like when the Sun Belt had 2-3 more times the number of cases than the north did in the spring, but only 1/2-1/3 of the deaths?
 

GophersInIowa

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Like when the Sun Belt had 2-3 more times the number of cases than the north did in the spring, but only 1/2-1/3 of the deaths?
You don’t think testing overall increased since the spring?

We’ve known for awhile that the tests are probably too sensitive and we’re seeing false positives. Lots of medical and scientific experts have been saying that. A majority of the false positives are happening from people with no symptoms, not the people getting very sick. It’s still about trends and weekly/monthly averages, not daily numbers.
 

bga1

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Positivity precedes hospitalizations and deaths. We went over this when people were pretending the spike in the Sun Belt was fine and cool
The spike in the Sun Belt had to happen. You have to reach herd immunity. You can do it over a few months, or you can do it over a year, but you are going to have to do it. How much damage do you want to do to people's lives (livelihood, mental health, physical health)? The longer you flatten the worse the consequences. That's why the flatteners, the lock down Nazis, are so interested in pumping up the death and positive testing stats, it is the only way they can maintain control. Stoke the fear.
 

bga1

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You don’t think testing overall increased since the spring?

We’ve known for awhile that the tests are probably too sensitive and we’re seeing false positives. Lots of medical and scientific experts have been saying that. A majority of the false positives are happening from people with no symptoms, not the people getting very sick. It’s still about trends and weekly/monthly averages, not daily numbers.
Deaths. New York- 1800 deaths per million. Florida- 600 deaths per million
 

justthefacts

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Like when the Sun Belt had 2-3 more times the number of cases than the north did in the spring, but only 1/2-1/3 of the deaths?

I said positivity, not cases, and the difference is crucial.

0fzsJVX.png


I should warn you that Spoofin will soon be here to castigate you for using the "c" word.
 

justthefacts

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The spike in the Sun Belt had to happen. You have to reach herd immunity. You can do it over a few months, or you can do it over a year, but you are going to have to do it. How much damage do you want to do to people's lives (livelihood, mental health, physical health)? The longer you flatten the worse the consequences. That's why the flatteners, the lock down Nazis, are so interested in pumping up the death and positive testing stats, it is the only way they can maintain control. Stoke the fear.

This inevitability argument would make more sense if there weren't such a wide disparity in outcomes between states. You can't simultaneously claim that Walz completely bungled the nursing home situation and also that massive outbreaks are inevitable given that Minnesota is currently 28th in most deaths per million. If Minnesota did really poorly, and massive spikes are inevitable, why aren't more people dead in MN?

Also, NY has started to tick back up in positivity now that they've opened up a bit. If they haven't reached herd immunity, how many people are going to need to die for the US to reach it.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Thanks for doing this. I am so curious why they changed to cumulative on the hospital and ICU patients.... What's up with that? :unsure:

Here's some info from a Strib article today (9-29). does not directly address your question, but has some good info about admissions and ICU capacity.


Hospital admissions for COVID-19 have risen to a level not seen in Minnesota since the start of June.

The latest figures released Tuesday by the Minnesota Department of Health showed a total of 380 admissions to hospitals for COVID-19 in the seven-day period ending Saturday, and 64 admissions last Wednesday alone. That is the highest single-day admission total since May 26, when the first wave of severe COVID-19 in Minnesota had just peaked and the state reported 78 hospital admissions.

The Health Department switched last week from reporting the total number of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients to the total number of daily new admissions. Admission numbers include people who arrived at hospitals for other or unknown problems but were then diagnosed with COVID-19.

Delayed reporting creates a lag in the admissions data, with the eight reported so far on Monday likely to increase in the coming days when hospitals provide more numbers and confirm more infections in admitted patients through diagnostic testing.

The latest hospital admission figures also showed 112 admissions in the seven-day period ending Saturday into intensive care units due to patients suffering breathing problems or other complications from their infections. That was the highest one-week tally since June 1.

Capacity data on Minnesota's pandemic response dashboard showed on Tuesday that 1,071 of 1,222 available ICU beds were filled with patients who have COVID-19 or unrelated medical or surgical needs.

That rate of ICU usage is common in Minnesota, even without a pandemic. The state dashboard also lists 936 standby ICU beds that could be readied if necessary.

The dashboard also lists that 432 ventilators are in use by COVID-19 and other patients to maintain adequate oxygen supply. Another 2,879 ventilators are on hand if needed in an emergency.
 

Livingat45north

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Positivity precedes hospitalizations and deaths. We went over this when people were pretending the spike in the Sun Belt was fine and cool
Let's just say that Minnesota had a policy in place where they went around door-to-door and offered testing to people that otherwise would have never asked for a test to be conducted. These people being tested showed no COVID symptoms, weren't planning to go to the hospital or clinic to be tested, and didn't think they had COVID. As such, wouldn't you think there'd be a pretty high probability that the test would come back negative? Now, let's say South Dakota happened to not have such a "door-to-door-lets-test-everyone" policy and instead they just tested people that thought they may have COVID or may have been exposed to someone with COVID. Do you think there would be a higher probability for those tests to indeed come back positive? One dataset populated with a sample of people that had no concern for having COVID, and a second dataset populated with samples of people that had a high concern they have COVID. Just curious -- please share your wisdom with us on this on why the positive test rates between the two sets of disparate data are so "crucial".
 
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