The new Corona virus, should we worry?

GopherJake

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Nope, just a believer in Science.
How's that science you and the fucking idiot president "uses" working for the death count in the US due to Covid compared to other countries? Want to know what kills an economy? 2000 people dying every day due to a disease the president has downplayed (criminally) since day one.
 

bga1

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No one has said testing doesn't matter. People have said broad, asymptomatic testing isn't a goal




You try so hard. But critical thinking just isn't your bag. You are able to spot small problems that fit your belief system, you can find the pimple on an elephants arse but you can't see the big picture. You are blinded 100% by your agenda.
 

bga1

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How's that science you and the fucking idiot president "uses" working for the death count in the US due to Covid compared to other countries? Want to know what kills an economy? 2000 people dying every day due to a disease the president has downplayed (criminally) since day one.
You have become just unbelievably stupid. I give you credit, you have worked hard at it. You will be at Howie level within months if you stay on this trajectory.
 

BarnBurner

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Only if they win. They will continue their tantrum for 4 more years otherwise. It is who they are. They plan to ruin this country one way or another.

Most Dems are moderates but they are sissies and they are controlled by the 5-10% hard left. They are scared to death of being verbally punished by their leftist minders.
And YOUR Repubs are as bad or worse.
 

GopherJake

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You have become just unbelievably stupid. I give you credit, you have worked hard at it. You will be at Howie level within months if you stay on this trajectory.
Completely non-substantive post. Pretty typical. Do you have anything useful to add? Are you satisfied with the federal response and daily death count in the US compared to other countries, BGA? Do you think folks in nursing homes are going to die anyway, so who cares? Do you think folks that think there is value in mask wearing are coming to take all your rights away? Have you ever marched through Target with a bunch of fucking idiots claiming oppression because the store you chose to enter of your own free will is asking you to comply by quite reasonable government regulations?
 

bga1

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As of Tuesday (Sep 15, 2020) and per Worldometers data, the US just passed 200K deaths (200,174, actually), The last daily 1,174 deaths pushed us over the top, on a total of 6,787,640 cases.

If we go back three weeks (to Aug 25) in order to offset for average time between case detection and conditional death, we had 5,954,346 cases as of then.

That means that right now, the US has an overall offset-adjusted Case Fatality Rate of 200,174 / 5,954,346=3.36%.

That stat, of course, is tilted to the high side by states like New York and New Jersey.

Maybe I'll compute the same stat, state by state, just for grins.

We can compare the current overall (offset-adjusted) CFR of 3.36% to the marginal (offset-adjusted) CFR for various points in time.

Currently, the marginal (offset-adjusted) CFR = 1.71%. That's just a little over half of the overall statistic shown above. This is based on a two-week sample to largely eliminate noise from the statistic.

We can repeat this computation for the two weeks ending April 14 - fairly near the beginning of the US pandemic (but not so far back that we have insufficient data). At that point in time, the marginal (offset-adjusted) CFR = 44.5%. Now in digesting that number, one must realize that at that point in time we had hardly any testing at all, and the only people being tested were the infections that were already (by that time) severe enough to be in a hospital, so that the definition of a "case" at that point amounted to a "severe case." Nevertheless, just think of this: Between April 14 and now (Sept 15) we have reduced the (offset-adjusted) marginal Case Fatality Rate by a factor of 26, from 44.5% down to 1.71% !

In other words, for those first few severe cases (especially the nursing-home cases in New York, thank you governor Cuomo) back in the April time frame, you had about a 50/50 coin-flip's chance of Covid being a death sentence for you. [Or to do an estimated breakdown by age, at that time if the infected person was in a nursing home or otherwise of nursing-home age, you probably had about a 90% chance of a death sentence; whereas if the infected person was younger you probably had about a 10% chance of a death sentence; based on an appoximate equal mixture of those two age groups.] But currently, if you catch a (diagnosed) case of Covid (in North Dakota, say), you have only about a 1.71% chance of dying from it (and its comorbidities). That's the (offset-adjusted) marginal CFR. If you guess that there's maybe 8X more actual infections than detected cases these days (a figure used in a recent report) - thanks to lots of mild or asymptomatic cases that don't get tested - then the (offset-adjusted) marginal Infection Fatality Risk (IFR) is about 0.214% right now (maybe about 4 to 5 times worse than the flu).

Conclusion #1: If you're going to get infected with Covid, then it's better to get infected in September in North Dakota than to get infected in April in New York !

Conclusion #2a: Given the caliber of Covid treatment currently available, the risk of death if you get a case of Covid is, on average, about 4 or 5 times greater than if you catch the flu. Conclusion #2b: However, the risk versus age + comorbidity spectrum of Covid makes the chances of Covid death much more severe than for flu within the old and obese and comorbid. Conclusion #2c: If you catch Covid but do not die, there are a much higher percentage of survivors that have severe ongoing health issues than for the flu.

Conclusion #3: If we could (magically) largely eliminate the fatso epidemic and the comorbidity epidemic among Americans, then Covid could be reduced in its level-of-harm to only about the magnitude of the flu (but subject to 2b and 2c, above). Although there is no magic bullet for this, should there not be a multi-billion-dollar (free to the populace) government-sponsored crash program to achieve the goal of massively reducing the fatso epidemic and the comorbidity epidemic among Americans?

So we've gotten Covid much closer to the flu in severity, yet not nearly close enough to the flu to treat it lightly. And, of course, a Covid vaccine will not likely arrive until about the end of the year. Yet we have made large strides in the right direction.

Conclusion #4: We should be talking about marginal CFR and marginal IFR, not total CFR and total IFR. The latter should be saved for the history books. The former are what we should be using right now to drive policy.

Yet (and does anybody else find this rather odd?) we have never ever heard people like Fauci or Birx or Osterholm talk about marginal CFR or marginal IFR. That makes me think that we have a bunch of total clowns leading this Covid circus.
It is less dangerous than the flu under age 65. As I have said from the beginning, protect the elderly and the ill and go on living and we would have been far, far better off today. Yes it is a fatty epidemic as well.

Sweden is there. They are done with this baloney. As I said months ago. Once they figured out their nursing homes they have done very, very well.
 

short ornery norwegian

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Interesting story in the Strib this week. The County manager for Ramsey County tested positive. He goes into detail about the issues he encountered in trying to get his family tested.

a couple excerpts:

O’Connor said that his family had to go to three different locations to get his wife, his two young sons and himself tested.

“The mantra, particularly that’s been said at the federal level, that if you need a test you can easily get one, remains removed from the living reality … that I experienced,” O’Connor told the board.

He said he didn’t pull any strings with Ramsey County Public Health but rather navigated the system through his family’s county employee health plan.

It was eye-opening, he said: the half-dozen calls he had to make, the limited testing sites for kids, the confusing websites, the shortage of available appointments and the disconnect between the state’s testing recommendations and what is actually offered.

“We kept getting told, ‘We are not testing asymptomatic children,’ ” he said.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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How's that science you and the fucking idiot president "uses" working for the death count in the US due to Covid compared to other countries? Want to know what kills an economy? 2000 people dying every day due to a disease the president has downplayed (criminally) since day one.
Trump doesn't know Science, I'm not sure why you're putting me in that category. 2000 people haven't died in a day since May 7th. Cases and deaths are increasing again in places that did 'well'. They are not increasing in places that did 'bad' like Sweden.

Death's are 10% higher than expected so far this year, with the vast majority of those being 70+. The 10% also continues to drop. That also includes deaths via other ailments, which are way up, thanks to the shutdowns.


At the beginning 'young/healthy people need to stay home for a few weeks to protect the at risk, and weren't at risk.' Young people were never considered at risk, and it has been rare that they've had issues. The data has been clear since the beginning for who is at risk and who is not, that hasn't changed.

The only thing that has changed is the response to this disease by politicians.
 

JimmyJamesMD

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Trump doesn't know Science, I'm not sure why you're putting me in that category. 2000 people haven't died in a day since May 7th. Cases and deaths are increasing again in places that did 'well'. They are not increasing in places that did 'bad' like Sweden.

Death's are 10% higher than expected so far this year, with the vast majority of those being 70+. The 10% also continues to drop. That also includes deaths via other ailments, which are way up, thanks to the shutdowns.


At the beginning 'young/healthy people need to stay home for a few weeks to protect the at risk, and weren't at risk.' Young people were never considered at risk, and it has been rare that they've had issues. The data has been clear since the beginning for who is at risk and who is not, that hasn't changed.

The only thing that has changed is the response to this disease by politicians.
Politicians being political
 

bga1

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Completely non-substantive post. Pretty typical. Do you have anything useful to add? Are you satisfied with the federal response and daily death count in the US compared to other countries, BGA? Do you think folks in nursing homes are going to die anyway, so who cares? Do you think folks that think there is value in mask wearing are coming to take all your rights away? Have you ever marched through Target with a bunch of fucking idiots claiming oppression because the store you chose to enter of your own free will is asking you to comply by quite reasonable government regulations?
Yes I am satisfied. We have an obese population - 36-40% obese and obesity is number one in predicting mortality with this (other than age of course). We would have done much better were it not for the Dem governors locking people down. We could be done with this now.

Our death count (which is heavily faked up for political and money purposes) is right there with the rest of the world in terms of death per million even though we are one of the fattest nations in the world.

New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut average 1615 deaths per million- the rest of the US averages 472 deaths per million.

Comparing to European nations, France locked down hard and now is getting a second wave. They are at 475 and will hit 600+ before it is over. Belgium was bad, Italy is at about 600, Spain, all of Europe got hit and the only nation that was able to slow the deaths was Germany and they are in near revolt over the lock downs. Germany has half the obesity rate we do.

US number of deaths involving covid 19 and pneumonia but excluding the regular flu= 81,691
US number of deaths involving covid 19 182,095 (yes that includes the 81,691 figure)

There are really 81,691 deaths that we actually believe died from covid. The rest died WITH covid. Big, big difference and the hospitals have been incentivized for political reasons to classify cases as covid...they get paid more for these cases.

False positives may well account for many of the 100k plus who died "with covid".

There is a lot of junk science going on with this disease because of the politics of the left.

This is not a Trump problem unless you have severe TDS - which you have. TDS symptoms include a lack of reasoning ability.
 
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bga1

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Interesting story in the Strib this week. The County manager for Ramsey County tested positive. He goes into detail about the issues he encountered in trying to get his family tested.

a couple excerpts:

O’Connor said that his family had to go to three different locations to get his wife, his two young sons and himself tested.

“The mantra, particularly that’s been said at the federal level, that if you need a test you can easily get one, remains removed from the living reality … that I experienced,” O’Connor told the board.

He said he didn’t pull any strings with Ramsey County Public Health but rather navigated the system through his family’s county employee health plan.

It was eye-opening, he said: the half-dozen calls he had to make, the limited testing sites for kids, the confusing websites, the shortage of available appointments and the disconnect between the state’s testing recommendations and what is actually offered.

“We kept getting told, ‘We are not testing asymptomatic children,’ ” he said.
Who runs this state anyway!!!???? Oh I forgot....it's Walz.

Do you realize what would happen if they tested asymptomatic kids? Well, for one thing, the disease would look a lot less deadly because kids don't die from it. Another would be that the test sites would be over run with helicopter safety moms testing their kids weekly.
 

short ornery norwegian

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stirring the pot just for fun:

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, told a Senate committee Wednesday it would likely be summer or fall of 2021 before most American could be vaccinated for COVID-19 and pushed for the continued use of masks calling them a “powerful public health tool.”

Redfield made the comments while testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies.

“These facemasks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have,” Redfield said. “I might even go so far as to say that this facemask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine.”

Redfield said he hopes all Americans will embrace masks saying, “we have clear scientific evidence that they work.”

“We haven’t got the acceptance, the personal responsibility that we need for all Americans to embrace this face mask,” Redfield said while hold up his mask.
 

JimmyJamesMD

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Interesting story in the Strib this week. The County manager for Ramsey County tested positive. He goes into detail about the issues he encountered in trying to get his family tested.

a couple excerpts:

O’Connor said that his family had to go to three different locations to get his wife, his two young sons and himself tested.

“The mantra, particularly that’s been said at the federal level, that if you need a test you can easily get one, remains removed from the living reality … that I experienced,” O’Connor told the board.

He said he didn’t pull any strings with Ramsey County Public Health but rather navigated the system through his family’s county employee health plan.

It was eye-opening, he said: the half-dozen calls he had to make, the limited testing sites for kids, the confusing websites, the shortage of available appointments and the disconnect between the state’s testing recommendations and what is actually offered.

“We kept getting told, ‘We are not testing asymptomatic children,’ ” he said.

Hmmm, i wonder why that is
 

KillerGopherFan

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How exactly does Trump "pressure" the B1G to play?
I'd like to think the B1G realized from the multiple sports doing it successfully that it can be done.
More likely, they just decided they couldn't do w/o the $.
I give DT 0.0% of the credit for the B1G deciding to play again. As it should be.
Trump was using it as a political tool to gain favor with people that think they should play. He repeated it frequently. He support the parents that wanted a return to play.

Public pressure. Peer pressure from other leagues playing. Parent and player pressure. It all works on those in power to satisfy its fans, parents, and players.

And yes, the money when you see other leagues playing.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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stirring the pot just for fun:

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, told a Senate committee Wednesday it would likely be summer or fall of 2021 before most American could be vaccinated for COVID-19 and pushed for the continued use of masks calling them a “powerful public health tool.”

Redfield made the comments while testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies.

“These facemasks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have,” Redfield said. “I might even go so far as to say that this facemask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine.”

Redfield said he hopes all Americans will embrace masks saying, “we have clear scientific evidence that they work.”

“We haven’t got the acceptance, the personal responsibility that we need for all Americans to embrace this face mask,” Redfield said while hold up his mask.
So now we wear masks to protect ourselves? And they are more effective than a vaccine?

It's getting hard to keep up with how fast COVID 'Science' changes
 

KillerGopherFan

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So now we wear masks to protect ourselves? And they are more effective than a vaccine?

It's getting hard to keep up with how fast COVID 'Science' changes
Redfield is an idiot. If it weren’t for the election coming up, he would‘ve been fired long ago. If Trump is re-elected on Nov 3, expect him to depart shortly thereafter.
 

BarnBurner

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I guess covid concerns are secondary to $$$$. I am sure the chorus of virtuous gh posters will bash the Big 10.......
 

Spoofin

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I guess covid concerns are secondary to $$$$. I am sure the chorus of virtuous gh posters will bash the Big 10.......
Well, that's not fair. I'm happy the B1G is going to play. I thought it was dumb to cancel the season. However, I also think it is $$$$ that is driving this decision --- so covid concerns are secondary to $$$$.
 

Bad Gopher

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Have they set a date when all these deep state traitors are arrested and mass executed?
 

Bad Gopher

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Withholding disaster support or public health support (especially during a killer pandemic) from blue states is essentially executing your political opponents.
 

GophersInIowa

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It is less dangerous than the flu under age 65. As I have said from the beginning, protect the elderly and the ill and go on living and we would have been far, far better off today. Yes it is a fatty epidemic as well.

Sweden is there. They are done with this baloney. As I said months ago. Once they figured out their nursing homes they have done very, very well.
Sweden still has certain restrictions in place. One area they did very well with is restricting large gatherings. No big events, church services, etc. The US has done a terrible job with that. Those things have an affect on the threshold to reach some kind of herd immunity (R0 <1). Limiting situations where one person can spread it to many people makes it easier to reach that point.
 

bga1

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Sweden still has certain restrictions in place. One area they did very well with is restricting large gatherings. No big events, church services, etc. The US has done a terrible job with that. Those things have an affect on the threshold to reach some kind of herd immunity (R0 <1). Limiting situations where one person can spread it to many people makes it easier to reach that point.
No masks. :)

Certain states have done a terrible job stopping riots and protests.

Church in Sweden is not much of a thing- unfortunately. They are pretty much going about business as usual.
 

GophersInIowa

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US number of deaths involving covid 19 and pneumonia but excluding the regular flu= 81,691
US number of deaths involving covid 19 182,095 (yes that includes the 81,691 figure)

There are really 81,691 deaths that we actually believe died from covid. The rest died WITH covid. Big, big difference and the hospitals have been incentivized for political reasons to classify cases as covid...they get paid more for these cases.
How are you coming to this conclusion from that info? All it means is 81k listed both COVID and pneumonia listed on the death certificate. Not everyone that dies of COVID gets pneumonia. We know over 90% of the death certificates list COVID as the underlying cause of death. Meaning it was what got things going towards death.
 
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