The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Wally

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I’m not arguing about masks working. I’m arguing about your assertion that if we all wore masks the virus would have simply passed over us and left us all alone. To that I say bull crap. Virus’s don’t like the heat and they don’t live outdoors very well. That is why we have seen decreases in cases nation wide through out the summer. Do you get hot spots yes, but they can be directly tied to an activity. I suspect that once it get cooler and people are inside more the cases will rise nation wide. This is a virus that won’t go away and is something we will have to deal with the rest of our lives. There will be a corona virus shot every fall and sometimes it will work sometimes it won’t. No different than a flu shot. Hopefully people developed antibodies in them to make it less contagious or at least to lessen the severity.
Yes it's never going away now, I agree. But if we actually were serious with masks we could probably keep it at inconsequential levels until a vaccine gets developed.

The flu is a much different virus in that it rapidly mutates and multiple stains usually circulate simultaneously. That's why the vaccine may not work. Covid doesn't have a mechanism to rapidly mutates like the flu, which hopefully will allow an easier vaccine. The main concern is the durability of immunity from vaccine as other coronaviruses don't seem to infer durable long lasting immunity. But sure we will all die someday so fuck it...
 

CutDownTheNet

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Dont ever stop. Also take an appropriate level of magnesium to ensure your body absorbs the vitamin d you are taking
Thanks for that magnesium-to-absorb-D tip - I had not heard.

Aside from that, there's another more direct reason to take sufficient magnesium (I take 500 mg/day on top of the 50 mg in the multivitamin, but the USDA 100% recommendation is 400 mg). Magnesium is critical for the "electronics" (so to speak) of the heart to work properly and prevent atrial fibrillation (AFib). AFib is a possible result if you perhaps should get Covid-19 (in the later stages). There can be a lengthening of the last stage of the heart-beat due to coronairus. At one point there was worry that HCQ might cause this, but those were studies that improperly tested HCQ in very late stage studies, and now it seems nearly certain those were Covid side effects not HCQ side effects.

Anyway, I had first-hand experience with this about 4 years ago when I was diagnosed with AFib and they wanted to do an outpatient procedure in which they lowered a pair of electrodes down your throat and then turned on the juice to (supposedly) shock your heart back into the correct rhythm. This didn't sound very fun, and when I asked the doctor what are the odds on this procedure and he said there's "only" 1% chance of dying, I wasn't thrilled by those odds, so I cured myself via an Internet search and magnesium. I learned that magnesium is critical to proper heart rhythm, and in the end, all I had was an extreme deficiency of magnesium. As soon as I loaded up on magnesium, the problem went away. I've been on magnesium ever since. Sometimes the doctors are FoS.
What doses do you recommend for these? Also, my MD has me taking 1000mg Niacinamide for skin/immune issues and says all should be taking it.
I take 4,000 IU of vitamin D per day (2 x 2,000 IU, the standard supplement capsule size). That's 10X the USDA daily requirement. I bumped that up from 2,000 IU (5x USDA), which was my former daily dose, just because D is good for the immune system and at least one study has shown that vitamin D has at least a partially good effect at preventing Covid.

For those that work bareback in landscaping or some other outdoor profession, your skin manufactures D in sunlight, so you might not need a supplement, but in northern climates we don't get much skin-generated D in winter.

Studies show that about 40% of Americans have a shortage of vitamin D.

Vitamin D, First clinical trial

One medical practitioner's standard treatment if you do get Covid includes (right after clinical diagnosis, don't wait til test comes back positive) four days of Vitamin D3: 50,000 IU/day in an emulsified form. That would be prescription form of the vitamin, probably, and only for the first four days of Covid infection. My thought is, why not just take a more sane (and not unhealthy, as far as I know) dose - your body just eliminates what it doesn't need - dose of 1000% of USDA recommendation on vitamin D, prophylactically, and that builds up enough D in your body over time, such that you're all set and don't need some insanely large special version of the vitamin if/when you might get Covid.
 
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CutDownTheNet

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Holy crap
Now we're giving the microphone to 6-year-old kids to expound on Covid-19 and related mask risks/rewards. Holy crap, indeed.

Some of these people should be granted a special exemption to not have to wear a mask, if only they sign an affidavit swearing that, instead, they will wear nose plugs and stuff a sock in their mouth.
 

CutDownTheNet

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Pre covid, the scientific consensus was that masks really do nothing. Seems pretty clear to me that their usefulness is political and not related to health. The goal is division.
On expel, they cut down the volume and slow down the speed of ejected droplets and aerosols, giving droplets more space to drop to the floor and aerosols the opportuity to drift sideways, thus cutting down their horizontal speed even more and creating more dispersion. This makes 6 feet separation enough. Otherwise we would need 12 feet or more separation. On inhale, with slow-horizontal-speed inbound aerosols, the mask provides one last barrier to absorb more of the aerosols. All this cuts down the received dose of aerosol-borne virus considerably.

Still, it's possible for some to get through, but not as much. It's a probability thing. The people who say "masks don't work" really should be saying "masks don't work perfectly." But we'll take what reduction we can get. They don't have to work perfectly, to get the win,
 

CutDownTheNet

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"A Chinese virologist who has reportedly been in hiding for fear of her safety has stepped out into the public eye again to make the explosive claim that she has the scientific evidence to prove COVID-19 was man-made in a lab in China.

Dr. Li-Meng Yan, a scientist who says she did some of the earliest research into COVID-19 last year, made the comments Friday during an interview on British talk show “Loose Women.”

When asked where the deadly virus that has killed more than 900,000 around the globe comes from, Yan — speaking via video chat from a secret location — replied, “It comes from the lab — the lab in Wuhan and the lab is controlled by China’s government.”

She insisted that widespread reports that the virus originated last year from a wet market in Wuhan, China, are “a smokescreen.”

"In April, Yan reportedly fled Hong Kong and escaped to America to raise awareness about the pandemic."

"Now, she said she is planning to release scientific evidence to prove that the virus was made inside a lab in Wuhan."

The genome sequence is like a human finger print,” she told the talk show. “So based on this you can identify these things. I use the evidence … to tell people why this has come from the lab in China, why they are the only ones who made it.”


Chinese virologist claims she has proof COVID-19 was made in Wuhan lab
I'd like to see her evidence. She was in the news a month or two ago when she escaped, but this is the first I've heard her speak out since then.

If she's holed up hiding out, you'd think she would have plenty of time to write up what she conjectures happened at the Wuhan Lab.

That said, I'm giving 3:2 odds that it did come from the lab. It may have been bonafide gain-of-function research to create a tough-cookie virus and then research cures/treatments against it - but not intended to be released such that all the doctors in the world are working toward a cure in some way or another - but (so the story goes) a bat bit a lab assistant who was patient zero and then infected patient one, etc. And there was bioweapons-funded research at the lab too, funded by the CCP Army. All the evidence has been circumstantial thus far, and I've seen only one really good video about the scientific evidence. So more scientific evidence would be nice, please, Ms.Yan.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Cool stuff.... and yet hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop, and drop, and drop...

Gotta love the WaPo, always on the case for doom and gloom. I would imagine that if Grandpa Joe wins in November, the data will suddenly be trending in a very positive direction, looking better every day? I would be flat out shocked if the tone remains the same...
 

KillerGopherFan

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Cool stuff.... and yet hospitalizations and deaths continue to drop, and drop, and drop...

Gotta love the WaPo, always on the case for doom and gloom. I would imagine that if Grandpa Joe wins in November, the data will suddenly be trending in a very positive direction, looking better every day? I would be flat out shocked if the tone remains the same...
It’s getting harder and harder to find statistics to spread bad news.

The media could find a dark cloud in any Trump silver lining.

Since the surge passed in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, now the media talks about ND, SD, and Iowa, yet Illinois gets little mention. I wonder why?

31DD06ED-73E2-4951-8B6F-43F479F0F480.jpeg
 
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short ornery norwegian

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number of tests down. positive test rate up a little. about half of all tests are people being tested for the first time. FWIW- est population of MN is 5.64 million, so roughly 22% of MN residents have been tested at least once.

MN Covid-19 Update - Tues, Sept 15

data reported by 4pm the previous day.

Positive Cases 85,351 +432. (4.5% positive test rate)

Health-Care workers with positive cases 9,265 +64.

Cases no longer needing isolation 78,953 +715.

Active Cases 4,471 -318.

Deaths 1,927 +5.

Deaths at long-term care and assisted living 1,400 +2.

Patients currently Hospitalized 238 +5.

Patients currently In ICU 131 -4.

Total Tests processed 1,733,292 +9,672.

Number of people tested 1,247,867 +4,512.
 

justthefacts

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It’s getting harder and harder to find statistics to spread bad news.

The media could find a dark cloud in any Trump silver lining.

Since the surge passed in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas, now the media talks about ND, SD, and Iowa, yet Illinois gets little mention. I wonder why?

View attachment 9361
Your analysis assumes that all of the bar openings happened in the very recent past. The WaPo analysis is using a longer time horizon. The spike in the graph above supports their conclusion rather than hurts, especially since many states (even some with Republican governors) went on to reclose bars.






More detail as well:



Surges have definitely happened. I'm not sure why everyone rushes to pretend that there weren't causes for it. Most of the posters on this board are probably much more frequent patrons of restaurants, and so should be happy about this news.

Most importantly, anything that furthers the understanding of the virus allows us to more specifically target our response, and thus should be welcomed.
 

bga1

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Your analysis assumes that all of the bar openings happened in the very recent past. The WaPo analysis is using a longer time horizon. The spike in the graph above supports their conclusion rather than hurts, especially since many states (even some with Republican governors) went on to reclose bars.






More detail as well:



Surges have definitely happened. I'm not sure why everyone rushes to pretend that there weren't causes for it. Most of the posters on this board are probably much more frequent patrons of restaurants, and so should be happy about this news.

Most importantly, anything that furthers the understanding of the virus allows us to more specifically target our response, and thus should be welcomed.
Protests cause surges. Lock downs cause surges. Masks might cause surges. You can make a graph to show almost anything.

Who cares? Right now we are seeing more infections as there are more tests being done, and by the way, more protests and riots. We need to open up everything. We actually need the infections among young people (who don't die). Get 'er done! Masks obviously do not work.

Until we reach herd immunity, lives are going to continue to get damaged. Suicides are on the rise. Depression. Kids are getting abused at home. Poor kids and kids in broken homes are dropping out of the education system. People are losing their businesses and hope. All because control freak, power hungry Dems want to shut things down- partly in a vain, futile effort to defeat Trump.
 

Spoofin

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Protests cause surges. Lock downs cause surges. Masks might cause surges. You can make a graph to show almost anything.

Who cares? Right now we are seeing more infections as there are more tests being done, and by the way, more protests and riots. We need to open up everything. We actually need the infections among young people (who don't die). Get 'er done! Masks obviously do not work.

Until we reach herd immunity, lives are going to continue to get damaged. Suicides are on the rise. Depression. Kids are getting abused at home. Poor kids and kids in broken homes are dropping out of the education system. People are losing their businesses and hope. All because control freak, power hungry Dems want to shut things down- partly in a vain, futile effort to defeat Trump.
This obsession JTF and others have on case counts is absurd. Ridiculous. Colleges and schools open up, we put more people together, and when cases go up (as any rational person would expect them to in those situations) they start yelling. What did they think would happen? Do they care that hospitalizations and deaths are not following the same trend? The whole debate on COVID has become unbearable - mainly by those that want it to be as bad as possible for unethical reasons.
 

justthefacts

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This obsession JTF and others have on case counts is absurd. Ridiculous. Colleges and schools open up, we put more people together, and when cases go up (as any rational person would expect them to in those situations) they start yelling. What did they think would happen? Do they care that hospitalizations and deaths are not following the same trend? The whole debate on COVID has become unbearable - mainly by those that want it to be as bad as possible for unethical reasons.
A) I don't have an obsession with case counts. Here are 2 pages of posts of me focusing on positivity rate. https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...&c[thread]=95159&c[users]=justthefacts&o=date

For every graph you can find in this thread that I've posted that ONLY shows cases, I'll find 10 that didn't show cases at all. KGF has picked up on using DIVOC, but this board only knows about it because I started posting positivity, hospitalization, and death graphs. The very first reference to DIVOC was me posting a hospitalization graph: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...s-should-we-worry.95159/page-493#post-1981716 The second is a deaths graph, again by me: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...s-should-we-worry.95159/page-498#post-1987817

Here's me specifically talking about cases vs positivity: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...s-should-we-worry.95159/page-618#post-2020376

Here's you questioning the very use of positivity and me explaining its value to you: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...rona-virus-should-we-worry.95159/post-2002918

B) The WaPo article was focused on case counts, but the test positivity, hospitalizations, and deaths followed. Take the example of Arizona above. Bars reopened May 15, and the positivity rate, hospitalizations, and deaths followed. Cases also went up of course.



C) Positivity rate (and cases) shot up all over the Sun Belt and you guys were so quick to talk about how it was limited to that. Then hospitalizations and deaths followed and you forgot all about it. Now that positivity rate (and cases) have gone up in certain states, you're back to pretending there's no link at all.

D) Why are you so defensive? We know there was a surge in this country. Something had to have caused it. Isn't it better to know?
 
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Section2

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On expel, they cut down the volume and slow down the speed of ejected droplets and aerosols, giving droplets more space to drop to the floor and aerosols the opportuity to drift sideways, thus cutting down their horizontal speed even more and creating more dispersion. This makes 6 feet separation enough. Otherwise we would need 12 feet or more separation. On inhale, with slow-horizontal-speed inbound aerosols, the mask provides one last barrier to absorb more of the aerosols. All this cuts down the received dose of aerosol-borne virus considerably.

Still, it's possible for some to get through, but not as much. It's a probability thing. The people who say "masks don't work" really should be saying "masks don't work perfectly." But we'll take what reduction we can get. They don't have to work perfectly, to get the win,
Life just doesn’t work this way. The theory makes fine sense. 6 feet if wearing masks, breathing normal, and stationary, reduces your risk of contracting. Ok.
the US is most likely worse with respect to COVID because we are fat and unhealthy and we test more. Not because we aren’t wearing masks enough. testing is not uniform. Data is all over the place. We don’t even have dependable death totals.
 

Spoofin

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A) I don't have an obsession with case counts. Here are 2 pages of posts of me focusing on positivity rate. https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...&c[thread]=95159&c[users]=justthefacts&o=date

For every graph you can find in this thread that I've posted that ONLY shows cases, I'll find 10 that didn't show cases at all. KGF has picked up on using DIVOC, but this board only knows about it because I started posting positivity and death graphs.

B) The WaPo article was focused on case counts, but the test positivity, hospitalizations, and deaths followed. Take the example of Arizona above. Bars reopened May 15, and the positivity rate, hospitalizations, and deaths followed. Cases also went up of course.



C) Positivity rate (and cases) shot up all over the Sun Belt and you guys were so quick to talk about how it was limited to that. Then hospitalizations and deaths followed and you forgot all about it. Now that positivity rate (and cases) have gone up in certain states, you're back to pretending there's no link at all.

D) Why are you so defensive? We know there was a surge in this country. Something had to have caused it. Isn't it better to know?
Dude - we can find 2-pages of posts from you on anything. Just yesterday you explained case counts aren't your focus, yet here again today you are using them. That's the point.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Your analysis assumes that all of the bar openings happened in the very recent past. The WaPo analysis is using a longer time horizon. The spike in the graph above supports their conclusion rather than hurts, especially since many states (even some with Republican governors) went on to reclose bars.






More detail as well:



Surges have definitely happened. I'm not sure why everyone rushes to pretend that there weren't causes for it. Most of the posters on this board are probably much more frequent patrons of restaurants, and so should be happy about this news.

Most importantly, anything that furthers the understanding of the virus allows us to more specifically target our response, and thus should be welcomed.
My analysis? I wasn’t really arguing your post except to say it’s getting harder to find bad news...but it doesn’t stop the left from trying to find that dark cloud.
 

justthefacts

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Dude - we can find 2-pages of posts from you on anything. Just yesterday you explained case counts aren't your focus, yet here again today you are using them. That's the point.
I can't determine what WaPo studies. But I can (and did show) the relationship between the dates and the other metrics.

The very first use of the word "positivity" was Section2 defending Trump's positive spin on everything. The first use of the word in the context of test rate is again by me: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...rona-virus-should-we-worry.95159/post-1988646


I was editing my post above when you responded but:

Here's you questioning the very use of positivity and me explaining its value to you: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...rona-virus-should-we-worry.95159/post-2002918
 

justthefacts

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My analysis? I wasn’t really arguing your post except to say it’s getting harder to find bad news...but it doesn’t stop the left from trying to find that dark cloud.
That's the thing. The WaPo analysis isn't bad news. It's good news. We can more specifically understand what causes spikes than we could before. Everyone should welcome that.
 

Spoofin

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Here's you questioning the very use of positivity and me explaining its value to you: https://www.forums.gopherhole.com/b...rona-virus-should-we-worry.95159/post-2002918
Stop the nonsense. I wasn't "questioning" it. I blatantly asked you "who mentioned it" as you injected it into a debate that wasn't even discussing it. Why be so dishonest here?

I'm not even debating the values of positivity rate with you now - I'm wondering why someone who claims not to follow case count uses it whenever it is convenient to supporting their claim? You, are just changing the subject.
 
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