The new Corona virus, should we worry?

CutDownTheNet

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Carlson is spot on here.

We don’t know if HCQ is effective. It can even be rarely harmful for some, or with high dose or prolonged use. There are ongoing studies and evidence is decidedly mixed and not really encouraging thus far. That’s why numerous studies are done with varying methodology and populations. Youtube, Twitter, google censoring legitimate outlets like Medcram and others for even DISCUSSING hydroxychloroquine should be scary for everyone. These are not nutcases, most likely. Laypeople thinking they have all the answers OTOH....

Furthermore, anyone practicing a major, or less major, religion really has no business criticizing Immanuel‘s past statements on psychosomatic illness and demons...

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/big-tech-censors-covid-19-video-tucker-carlson
> We don’t know if HCQ is effective.

Yes, we still don't know 100% for sure, and it very well might be effective for some people but ineffective for other people. We do know that it's only effective for very early treatment, or perhaps for prophylactic use.

> It can even be rarely harmful for some, ...

There were some claims that it might cause heart Atrial Fibrillation (A-Fib), but later research suggests that was more likely caused by the Azithromycin antibiotic often administered with it (along with zinc also). I'm not sure if they ever found a definitive answer to the A-Fib question.

I was diagnosed with A-Fib at one point and they wanted to stick an electrical cord down my throat and shock my heart, to talk it into behaving again. When they said there was a 1% chance of dying, I said I don't like those odds and said no thanks. An internet search showed that most A-Fib cases are due to lack of magnesium. So I loaded up on magnesium, and that A-Fib just went away. I recommend everybody to take 500 mg of magnesium per day, regardless - and that might counter any issues of A-Fib due to either HCQ or Azithromycin (or, perhaps reduce the dosage of the antibiotic, at least until it looks like the patient is heading toward pneumonia).

> ... or with high dose or prolonged use.

High doses of HCQ are not typically used for Covid treatment. Also, HCQ builds up and lasts quite a while in the body, so you can actually start dosing it in smaller doses prophylactically, and those small harmless doses are not going to cause any bad side effects.

A few posts ago, I promised to provide a pointer to another research effort on HCQ potential effectiveness. I misplaced my bookmark, but just now found it again. See ...

Covid-19: hydroxychloroquine works, a proof ? http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof .

This is a rather weird study since it is completely an ex post facto study, and not even a planned study. Yet, it provides nearly irrefutable evidence that HCQ can be effective for at least some large percentage of patients. It is actually just about as reliable as a double-blind HCQ+zinc/placebo study. Why? Because it provides what amounts to a serial study with HCQ then placebo then HCQ on a very large test population, namely the entire population of infected patients in Switzerland. The data can be analyzed with techniques that derive philosophically from machine-learning AI experiments.

What happened was that HCQ was legal and used for treatment nearly all the time in Switzerland; then it was banned for a couple weeks (courtesy being pooh-poohed just because Trump liked it); then it was allowed again and widely used again in Switzerland. After accounting for the relevant delay between cause and effect, what this did was raise the Swiss death rate from about 3% up to about 15% while HCQ was no longer in the bloodstreams of patients in sufficient quantities, and then when HCQ was used again, the death rate went down to about 3% again.

Nobody can think of any other explanation why the death rate was 3% with HCQ treatments but 15% without HCQ treatments in Switzerland. It's later decline from 15% to 3% was not just a gradual effect of overall better treatments over time, as you can see from the fact that death rate went up and then back down like a square wave. Furthermore, during the same time frame, HCQ was completely banned in adjacent France, and they had about a 15% death rate the whole time. So Swiss results degraded to French results during the time HCQ was banned in Switzerland, and then went right back down to 3% after the ban was lifted (and suitable delay).

That "experiment" (that was really just a coincidence - more like the science of observing the stars than any lab experiment requiring special setup) pretty clearly demonstrates that HCQ can be beneficial for early treatment (which is all that is claimed).

> evidence is decidedly mixed and not really encouraging thus far

The evidence from the above "experiment" in Switzerland is not mixed at all. It is as good as a positive result from a double-blind HCQ+zinc/placebo experiment.

As the doctors in white coats in the viral video would point out, now that we have sufficient indication (as good as a double-blind test) that HCQ works, it would actually be inhumane to conduct such a double-blind HCQ+zinc/placebo experiment, because you're subjecting those who get the placebo to less than the best treatment available. For later, more serious stages of Covid, doctors should still resort to remdesivir and/or dexamethasone.

Note that the positive effect actually comes from the zinc, and not the HCQ. The HCQ only acts as the enabler to let the zinc enter the cells. It's very difficult for zinc to permeate the cell walls without the HCQ as the catalyst (so to speak). But when the zinc gets in the cell, that makes it very difficult for the SARS-CoV-2 virus to get into the cell to reproduce. If it can't reproduce, it just dies. If you can minimize its reproduction early-on, then if your immune system is powerful enough to attack what coronavirus is there or does reproduce (via antibodies and killer T-cells), then you can beat it before it goes into serious stage. It may not work for everybody, since some peoples' immune system is just shot. To boost your immune system, try lots of vitamins D and C, elderberry extract, etc.

By the way - 42% of Americans should go on a crash Covid diet. See Bill Maher's excellent rant at .
 
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diehard

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Who should get it first? All the progressive communists as they are vital to this country. It is going to be the first mRNA vaccine used on humans. Hurry and get it guys! BTW, don't bother to research mRNA vaccine. None of you commies are smart enough to understand. Just take the damn vaccine ASAP.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Like futile contact tracing weeks after the fact (with an uncooperative public) - this is why a rushed vaccine rollout is doomed to fail among lower risk targets, and it won’t be tested in children, elderly, large numbers of unhealthy for some time. The ivory tower isn’t taking human psychology and sociology into account.


With 25 companies testing their vaccine candidates on humans and getting ready to immunise hundred millions of people once the products are shown to work, the question of who pays for any claims for damages in case of side effects has been a tricky point in supply negotiations.

This is a unique situation where we as a company simply cannot take the risk if in ... four years the vaccine is showing side effects,” Ruud Dobber, a member of Astra’s senior executive team, told Reuters.

“In the contracts we have in place, we are asking for indemnification. For most countries it is acceptable to take that risk on their shoulders because it is in their national interest,” he said, adding that Astra and regulators were making safety and tolerability a top priority.

Dobber would not name the countries.
EU officials told Reuters this week product liability was among contentious points in European efforts to secure supply deals for potential COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson.
The United States, however, already has a law to exclude tort claims from products that help control a public-health crises in the form of the 2005 Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness, or PREP Act.

 

Pompous Elitist

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Speaking of contact tracing, all the (mostly wasted) money being spent by states could be reallocated towards rapid point of care tests, ie results in an hour or so. Relatively cheap, much more effective for the purpose of stopping chains of transmission.

The entire talk is good but if you want to skip forward Dr Mina assesses this at the 16 minute mark


 

KillerGopherFan

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Just to be clear then, you think Dr Birx is a very solid authority on all things COVID?
I have always listened to the task force scientists, even Dr. Fauci. I do think Dr. Fauci has made statements that he later retracted, like mask wearing. So I do believe there are instances where I question what they are saying. Many of Fauci’s statements have been distorted by the media, so Fauci has claimed. Sometimes, I think he’s made politically correct statements that he later has back tracked on. For instance, he seemingly had no criticism of the protests, but was against religious gatherings. These two beliefs are in conflict. Under questioning by Jim Jordan, he modified his statement to say that ANY crowd was potentially a virus spreader, but he still didn’t want to criticize protests or recent funerals.

So do I believe the science and the scientists? Yes, I am guided by them when their statement doesn’t conflict with their other statements b/c they’re trying to be politically correct. Dr. Birx has been more consistent than Dr. Fauci b/c he has allowed himself to be political on occasion.

I balance what the science says about CV19 with other health and economic concerns to form my own opinion of what the best strategy for combatting the CV19 circumstance. Basically, that is to take mitigation steps, like masks, social distancing, hand washing, and avoiding large gatherings where social distancing isn’t possible. Protect those with co-morbidities and elderly. Re-open the economy with all of the above. Re-open schools (except in hot spots) with all of the above except that children aren’t nearly at risk, so only teachers need take all mitigation steps and children take those that are practical.

I am guided by the experts, yet Nancy Pelosi says she doesn’t trust Dr. Birx. Trust, but verify, b/c politics plays a role.

What’s your opinion?
 

bga1

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Checking the CDC site today for the official "excess deaths" count with their numbers running from 2-1-2020 to 8-1-2020...... Total deaths during the period =1,565,571. The percentage of deaths over the expected is 107%. So if I divide 1,565,571 by 107 to get to the expected deaths we are at 1,462,620. Thus the "excess deaths are now at 103,000. I expect this tally to start to decline as Covid deaths decline and many of the people who died from covid are now not here to die from other natural causes.
Unfortunately murders and suicides are now happening much higher rates than last year due to the reaction to covid and the protests.

 

short ornery norwegian

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MN Covid-19 Update - Mon, Aug 3

data reported by 4pm the previous day

Positive Cases 56,560 +622.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 6,425 +42.

Cases No Longer Needing Isolation 49,565 +718.

Active Cases 5,379 -107.

Deaths 1,616 +2.

Deaths at Long-Term Care and Assisted Living 1,231 (no change)

Patients currently Hospitalized 302 - no change.

Patients currently In ICU 153 +4.

Total Tests processed 1,070,925 +15,870.

Number of people tested 872,004 +13,663.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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MN Covid-19 Update - Mon, Aug 3

data reported by 4pm the previous day

Positive Cases 56,560 +622.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 6,425 +42.

Cases No Longer Needing Isolation 49,565 +718.

Active Cases 5,379 -107.

Deaths 1,616 +2.

Deaths at Long-Term Care and Assisted Living 1,231 (no change)

Patients currently Hospitalized 302 - no change.

Patients currently In ICU 153 +4.

Total Tests processed 1,070,925 +15,870.

Number of people tested 872,004 +13,663.
Soooo, the skyrocketing deaths, hospitalizations and ICU patients are coming....? Just wait two weeks, yes?
 

LakerFan

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Checking the CDC site today for the official "excess deaths" count with their numbers running from 2-1-2020 to 8-1-2020...... Total deaths during the period =1,565,571. The percentage of deaths over the expected is 107%. So if I divide 1,565,571 by 107 to get to the expected deaths we are at 1,462,620. Thus the "excess deaths are now at 103,000. I expect this tally to start to decline as Covid deaths decline and many of the people who died from covid are now not here to die from other natural causes.
Unfortunately murders and suicides are now happening much higher rates than last year due to the reaction to covid and the protests.

Don't forget the people that will die because they failed to properly hand over their property when robbed.
 

justthefacts

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Checking the CDC site today for the official "excess deaths" count with their numbers running from 2-1-2020 to 8-1-2020...... Total deaths during the period =1,565,571. The percentage of deaths over the expected is 107%. So if I divide 1,565,571 by 107 to get to the expected deaths we are at 1,462,620. Thus the "excess deaths are now at 103,000. I expect this tally to start to decline as Covid deaths decline and many of the people who died from covid are now not here to die from other natural causes.
Unfortunately murders and suicides are now happening much higher rates than last year due to the reaction to covid and the protests.

I have probably copy and pasted this exact screen shot 10 times in this thread

 

howeda7

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Are we still having the "COVID is no worse than the flu" argument? Really? This is why we're doing worse than any major nation on earth at this.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Brace yourself. I believe we have turned the corner on the spike of cases in the South and West regions of the US. If cases fall at a modest rate, relative to earlier hit states that remained shutdown during that decline, the US should see a significant decline in the number of CV cases and deaths in the next two months.

E37B81E4-915C-45BA-BA36-14752CF44CDD.jpeg

IMO, this is further evidence that the management of CV19 is closely related to how seriously individuals commit to mitigation tactics and that the country does not have to shut down or mandate mask wearing to manage the consequences of the CV19.

The national strategy has been effective and it has been and will always be up to individuals to mitigate the consequences of CV though some regions suffered on the later surge b/c individuals were lax in their regard for CV spread and wise mitigation. IMO, the government policies that are questionable are the ones that didn’t protect the LTC and nursing home facilities and the extent of shutdowns of the economy that some governors instituted and still are imposing on some businesses and public entities, like schools.

Let me be clear, I’m not saying that we’ve beaten the virus as some lefty goofs here will accuse me of doing. What I’m saying is that the entire country is now aware of the consequences of poor individual choices and there will be more responsible choices, though we can always count on some to ignore best practices. It’s human nature and that has been the #1 factor in how this virus has spread.

We can function with a fully open economy with mitigation tactics and some restrictions on large gatherings in enclosed areas, while the elderly and comorbidity types are protected or isolated if necessary. The one X factor will be what are the consequences of schools and colleges re-opening. It’s possible that it could sway the number of cases negatively or positively or not at all.

A couple months from now (just prior to the election), I suspect we’ll be around 1/2 the number of cases and deaths from our peak. I know JTF will be saving this post to remind me if I’m wrong.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Are we still having the "COVID is no worse than the flu" argument? Really? This is why we're doing worse than any major nation on earth at this.
I wouldn't say "no worse". I would just say that it's really really f'ng similar, other than the flu being much more harmful and devastating to young people.
 

bga1

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Are we still having the "COVID is no worse than the flu" argument? Really? This is why we're doing worse than any major nation on earth at this.
No. We are having an average result versus other developed nations because we have an amazing number of obese people in the US. I have seen numbers between 36 and 42% obesity in the US. Almost all of the Asian nations are below 10%. Vietnam...2% obesity. 2 deaths total in Vietnam. Considering our fat population and the politicization of this by governors who have forced people inside and into nursing homes where it spreads better, we have done pretty well.
 

howeda7

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No. We are having an average result versus other developed nations because we have an amazing number of obese people in the US. I have seen numbers between 36 and 42% obesity in the US. Almost all of the Asian nations are below 10%. Vietnam...2% obesity. 2 deaths total in Vietnam. Considering our fat population and the politicization of this by governors who have forced people inside and into nursing homes where it spreads better, we have done pretty well.
I thought it was due to leftist protestors and dirty Mexicans? That was your reasoning a few weeks ago. Certainly, we have an obesity problem and more deaths because of it.

But that is not why we've had more spread than most places. Our inept disastrous Federal response, living in denial by ~30% of the population, and our unwillingness by many to inconvenience themselves in the slightest to help their fellow citizens have certainly contributed to that.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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I thought it was due to leftist protestors and dirty Mexicans? That was your reasoning a few weeks ago. Certainly, we have an obesity problem and more deaths because of it.

But that is not why we've had more spread than most places. Our inept disastrous Federal response, living in denial by ~30% of the population, and our unwillingness by many to inconvenience themselves in the slightest to help their fellow citizens have certainly contributed to that.
Here's a question for you and the other people who keep repeating that we had a 'disastrous Federal response'. What do you think should have been done better?
 

CutDownTheNet

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Excellent article.

Example quote: "America’s nursing homes and long-term-care facilities house less than 1 percent of its people, but as of mid-June, they accounted for 40 percent of its coronavirus deaths. More than 50,000 residents and staff have died. At least 250,000 more have been infected."

If you do the math on that, it implies that you are 24 X more likely to die from Covid if you are in a nursing home or LTCF, than if you are a "regular citizen" living independently. Nursing homes and LTCFs became analogous to the "Chuck E. Cheese germ (virus in this case) cesspool" for children.

Now, one can legitimately argue that the (resident, anyway) population of nursing homes and LTCFs would be 24 X more likely to die anyway, just due to their high age and numerous comorbidities. But that's just the point. That says that for all intents and purposes, we did exactly "nothing" to protect those in nursing homes and LTCFs, and in fact in some states such as NY and MN we did worse than nothing in the sense that the state policies actually promoted deaths in nursing homes and LTCFs. These people were nicely isolated a priori, so all we had to do was restrict visitation plus a lot of repeated testing to largely keep them safe. We did the restricted visitation, but (for most states) failed to do sufficient testing. Going forward, many/most in nursing homes should probably be on (per-patient customized based on comorbidities) prophylactic-sized doses of HCQ + zinc.

Here's another couple quotes ...

"Some COVID‑19 survivors have been hit with seven-figure https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/16/coronavirus-hospital-bill-healthcare-america medical bills."

"As of early July, one in every 1,450 Black Americans had died from COVID‑19—a rate more than twice that of white Americans."

I did a little math on the latter. At that time (I'm assuming by early July they mean first week of July) about one in every 1,450 of black Americans had died of Covid, and about one in every 2,120 of non-black Americans (whites, Hispanic, Asian, East Indian, Middle-Eastern, other) had died of Covid. Or, overall throughout the full population, at that time, about one in every 2,000 Americans had died of Covid. When you put it in those terms, it actually sounds worse than when you quote the stats in terms of number of dead.

Updating that per the current US Covid death toll (and assuming same proportions), we get that currently, one in every 1,215 of black Americans has died of Covid, and about one in every 1,776 of non-black Americans (whites, Hispanic, Asian, East Indian, Middle-Eastern, other) has died of Covid. Or, overall throughout the full population, at that time, about one in every 1,675 Americans has died of Covid.
 
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Section2

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Here's a question for you and the other people who keep repeating that we had a 'disastrous Federal response'. What do you think should have been done better?
GWG, and any other folks here that consider themselves data gurus, take a read on this article and tell me what you think.
Basic gist from my uneducated position, PCR testing is notorious for an awful accuracy rate. It is THE BASELINE test for Covid. Anyway, curiuos for the smart people to take a read and add thoughts.
 

diehard

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Excellent article.

Example quote: " America’s nursing homes and long-term-care facilities house less than 1 percent of its people, but as of mid-June, they accounted for 40 percent of its coronavirus deaths. More than 50,000 residents and staff have died. At least 250,000 more have been infected."

If you do the math on that, it implies that you are 24 X more likely to die from Covid if you are in a nursing home or LTCF, than if you are a "regular citizen" living independently. Nursing homes and LTCFs became analogous to the "Chuck E. Cheese germ (virus in this case) cesspool" for children.

Here's another one ...

"Some COVID‑19 survivors have been hit with seven-figure https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/16/coronavirus-hospital-bill-healthcare-america medical bills."

"As of early July, one in every 1,450 Black Americans had died from COVID‑19—a rate more than twice that of white Americans."
This is about chronic diseases and compromised immune systems. The ignored factor that is the single most important factor in combatting corona virus and cancer. I saw a recent article by Dr Sanjay Gupta who appears to have just discovered the existence of T cells. Now he has heard of them, but his article proved he doesn't understand them. That is the state of our health care system. We have all heard of people who died from cancer while undergoing treatment. In the majority of cases it should correctly be stated that they died from treatment while having cancer.
 
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Livingat45north

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MN Covid-19 Update - Mon, Aug 3

data reported by 4pm the previous day

Positive Cases 56,560 +622.

Health-Care workers with positive cases 6,425 +42.

Cases No Longer Needing Isolation 49,565 +718.

Active Cases 5,379 -107.

Deaths 1,616 +2.

Deaths at Long-Term Care and Assisted Living 1,231 (no change)

Patients currently Hospitalized 302 - no change.

Patients currently In ICU 153 +4.

Total Tests processed 1,070,925 +15,870.

Number of people tested 872,004 +13,663.
76% of deaths were at LTCs. More of Walz's great leadership in his decision to send infected COVID patients to hangout at LTCs. BTW, the total number of deaths for folks under 30 is holding steady at a grand total of 5.
 
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