The new Corona virus, should we worry?

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
45,292
Reaction score
3,537
Points
113
It’s OK Howdy, you aren’t the only one that is still confused over what metrics matter most. You keep trying big guy!
All of the metrics are bad. Cases are up. Hospitalizations are up. Deaths are up. There's no spinning it. We can either try and do something about it or sit back and pretend it's all fine while the fire burns. The 40% has made their choice.
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
16,561
Reaction score
2,033
Points
113
All of the metrics are bad. Cases are up. Hospitalizations are up. Deaths are up. There's no spinning it. We can either try and do something about it or sit back and pretend it's all fine while the fire burns. The 40% has made their choice.
A7BCB353-F604-4D04-B347-B48644744F49.jpeg
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
7,658
Reaction score
1,009
Points
113
All of the metrics are bad. Cases are up. Hospitalizations are up. Deaths are up. There's no spinning it. We can either try and do something about it or sit back and pretend it's all fine while the fire burns. The 40% has made their choice.
Even after the several month shutdown and mask wearing. I guess we know what doesn't work.
 

KillerGopherFan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
16,876
Reaction score
1,816
Points
113
Over 71,000 cases today. The President says all is well.
Anyone who implies that they know what is coming in the next few weeks (regarding daily death rate) is either full of shit or trying to score points while they have the opportunity with what potentially flimsy evidence they have or both. In your case, I’m going with both.

No one here claimed that there wouldn’t be some continued risk or some level of death that is undesirable. Rather, the argument is that the risks and potential harmful impact of remaining closed or re-opening too slowly outweigh the risks of re-opening expeditiously, yet deliberately. Hot spots and spikes in areas were predicted.

I suspect that there will be some uptick in deaths based on the amount of cases. I’m hoping, unlike you, that that uptick in cases won’t translate into significantly more deaths b/c it will be a reflection of younger cases, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases found in testing, early detection, and better treatment options.

If the above is true, we should be full steam ahead with re-opening society.
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
16,561
Reaction score
2,033
Points
113
Anyone who implies that they know what is coming in the next few weeks (regarding daily death rate) is either full of shit or trying to score points while they have the opportunity with what potentially flimsy evidence they have or both. In your case, I’m going with both.

No one here claimed that there wouldn’t be some continued risk or some level of death that is undesirable. Rather, the argument is that the risks and potential harmful impact of remaining closed or re-opening too slowly outweigh the risks of re-opening expeditiously, yet deliberately.

I suspect that there will be some uptick in deaths based on the amount of cases. I’m hoping, unlike you, that that uptick in cases won’t translate into significantly more deaths b/c it will be a reflection of younger cases, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases found in testing, early detection, and better treatment options.

If the above is true, we should be full steam ahead with re-opening society.
Trying to talk logic to Howdy is like me telling my dog to eat slowly. We have started opening up some and testing more, and some act *shocked* and *terrified* that case counts are going up. 2+2 is harder to figure out than that was. Those unwilling to look at the full picture and naive enough to believe whatever their precious media tells them to believe, will continue to spew nonsense and cheer for pain. If is a low point for society.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
45,292
Reaction score
3,537
Points
113
Anyone who implies that they know what is coming in the next few weeks (regarding daily death rate) is either full of shit or trying to score points while they have the opportunity with what potentially flimsy evidence they have or both. In your case, I’m going with both.

No one here claimed that there wouldn’t be some continued risk or some level of death that is undesirable. Rather, the argument is that the risks and potential harmful impact of remaining closed or re-opening too slowly outweigh the risks of re-opening expeditiously, yet deliberately.

I suspect that there will be some uptick in deaths based on the amount of cases. I’m hoping, unlike you, that that uptick in cases won’t translate into significantly more deaths b/c it will be a reflection of younger cases, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases found in testing, early detection, and better treatment options.

If the above is true, we should be full steam ahead with re-opening society.
No one is hoping for more deaths. You're disgusting if you think so. We don't know what is coming. We do know that deaths are up 35% the last 4 days versus the same days last week. And we know the lag means most of the impact from the surge in cases likely hasn't impacted the death rates yet.

If we can keep hospitals from over-flowing and there is adequate remdesivir etc. hopefully the spike is minimal.
 

KillerGopherFan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
16,876
Reaction score
1,816
Points
113
Trying to talk logic to Howdy is like me telling my dog to eat slowly. We have started opening up some and testing more, and some act *shocked* and *terrified* that case counts are going up. 2+2 is harder to figure out than that was. Those unwilling to look at the full picture and naive enough to believe whatever their precious media tells them to believe, will continue to spew nonsense and cheer for pain. If is a low point for society.
I’m not really speaking to howie as much as I am just responding to his weak posts. I love the dog analogy though. 🤣
 

KillerGopherFan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
16,876
Reaction score
1,816
Points
113
No one is hoping for more deaths. You're disgusting if you think so. We don't know what is coming. We do know that deaths are up 35% the last 4 days versus the same days last week. And we know the lag means most of the impact from the surge in cases likely hasn't impacted the death rates yet.

If we can keep hospitals from over-flowing and there is adequate remdesivir etc. hopefully the spike is minimal.
Stop acting like you’re pulling for bad news then.

Just for the record, how long is this lag that we need to wait for? I thought it was 2 weeks, then it became 3 or 4 weeks.

If you look at states that are doing poorly right now, they are warmer climate with large metro areas, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, all of which had done extremely well for some time, or put another way, were moderately impacted by CV-19 deaths. It could be the effect of heading inside to the AC or some other reason, but no one knows for sure.

Other expeditiously re-opened states have down well, like Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Indiana, and even Georgia (whose cases are way up, but deaths still down). Why? Could be climate, with the exception of Georgia. Don’t know for sure. How is it that these states are doing well?

But data can be misleading unless we know some details about how those numbers were reported, as we found out with Florida’s one day high total. Here’s Illinois (Below), where it’s still pretty strict, and all of a sudden a high one day death total. I have to assume that is a correction. I’d advise you to stop looking for trends in a few days. We need weeks of trends to determine real concern. And not CASES. That is if you‘re not wishing for a bad for Trump outcome.

30F3D813-61AC-44A0-BB06-41C5BCD652CB.jpeg
 

Go4Broke

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2010
Messages
3,141
Reaction score
160
Points
63
How coronavirus affects the entire body

The coronavirus attacks virtually every major system in the human body, directly damaging organs and causing the blood to clot, the heart to lose its healthy rhythm, the kidneys to shed blood and protein and the skin to erupt in rashes. It causes headaches, dizziness, muscle aches, stomach pain and other symptoms along with classic respiratory symptoms like coughing and fever.

Coronavirus can damage:
- lungs
- kidneys
- liver
- heart
- brain
- nervous system
- skin
- gastrointestinal tract

Much of the damage wrought by the virus appears to come because of its affinity for a receptor — a kind of molecular doorway into cells — called ACE2. Cells lining the blood vessels, in the kidneys, the liver ducts, the pancreas, in the intestinal tract and lining the respiratory tract all are covered with ACE2 receptors, which the virus can use to grapple and infect cells.

Coronavirus infection also activates the immune system. Part of that response includes the production of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This inflammation can damage cells and organs and the so-called cytokine storm is one of the causes of severe symptoms.

Blood clotting effects appear to be caused by several different mechanisms: direct damage of the cells lining the blood vessels and interference with the various clotting mechanisms in the blood itself. Low blood oxygen caused by pneumonia can make the blood more likely to clot, the researchers said. These clots can cause strokes and heart attacks or can lodge in the lungs or legs. They clog the kidneys and interfere with dialysis treatments needed for the sickest patients.

Damage to the pancreas can worsen diabetes, and patients with diabetes have been shown to be at the highest risk of severe illness and death from coronavirus.

The virus can directly damage the brain, but some of the neurological effects likely come from the treatment.
"COVID-19 patients can be intubated for two to three weeks; a quarter require ventilators for 30 or more days," Gupta said.

The virus affects the immune system, depleting the T-cells the body usually deploys to fight off viral infections. "Lymphopenia, a marker of impaired cellular immunity, is a cardinal laboratory finding reported in 67-90% of patients with COVID-19," the researchers wrote.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/10/health/coronavirus-entire-body-effects-columbia/index.html
 

CutDownTheNet

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 4, 2018
Messages
2,152
Reaction score
545
Points
113
I really like your posts. They are long tho. I’m not complaining, just stating. For those that aren’t up for the full read, let me give my translation (NOTE: I am not speaking for CDtN, just me).

TRANSLATION: Here is a really long, convoluted, non-factual article to try and justify why the data doesn’t support the doomsday we have been preaching is coming.
Thanks for the condensed version.

Funny thing is, I started out wanting to give the short summary of what I thought was a pretty good article, but then I thought it needed more emphasis on a point that it pretty much glossed over, so I added to the summary, plus the *factual* references were pretty good too (including the first refs I've seen on a couple topics) such that I kept all those in after all, so that in the end my "summary" was probably longer than the "original," lol. Oh well, for those that want the slightly longer version than your to-the-point summary, they can read the original paper, which, oddly, summarizes my summary.

> Here is a really long, convoluted, non-factual article ...

It's actually not that long, by my standards, lol. At least, if I had written it from scratch, it would have most likely been longer, since I wouldn't have had time for an edit cycle (but I did have time to edit an existing article that wasn't too bad even before I spruced it up). I don't think it's convoluted either. It's a straightforward linear argument that gives 6 categories of interrelated facts that all come together to cohesively explain why cases are soaring (but that doesn't necessarily matter) and at the same time deaths have been on the decline (and may or may not still be on the decline after a brief sideways pause). It's written by a professional journalist, and I think I improved on it somewhat with my minor additions. And it is actually quite factual. There are no untruths stated there (although some might question the political dogma in the article, which I left intact, but consider as separate from the main factual article), and anything that's a "maybe" is fairly obviously not intended to be claimed as fact. I hope you looked at the graphs of scientifically accurate data. I hope you looked up the references to the scientific papers. Well, if no time, that I can understand. How would you improve upon it to make it even more factual?
 
Last edited:

diehard

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
32,157
Reaction score
199
Points
63
Wait.....GH posters reach out the NC media and talk trash about you? Thats awful.

So do they call up the CBS affiliate in Raleigh and say "that son of a bitch Diehard"..........
Not nearly that nice and use my real name. The intent was to damage educational opportunties in this NC county. The majority of students here are African American. Exporting Minnesota's racism and edication gap. They and the GH own that proudly. Evil is as evil does. It is alive and well in Minnesota. It extends well beyond banter on this board. So laugh your ass off, now you own it too.
 

CutDownTheNet

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 4, 2018
Messages
2,152
Reaction score
545
Points
113
Stop acting like you’re pulling for bad news then.

Just for the record, how long is this lag that we need to wait for? I thought it was 2 weeks, then it became 3 or 4 weeks.

If you look at states that are doing poorly right now, they are warmer climate with large metro areas, Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, all of which had done extremely well for some time, or put another way, were moderately impacted by CV-19 deaths. It could be the effect of heading inside to the AC or some other reason, but no one knows for sure.

Other expeditiously re-opened states have down well, like Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Indiana, and even Georgia (whose cases are way up, but deaths still down). Why? Could be climate, with the exception of Georgia. Don’t know for sure. How is it that these states are doing well?

But data can be misleading unless we know some details about how those numbers were reported, as we found out with Florida’s one day high total. Here’s Illinois (Below), where it’s still pretty strict, and all of a sudden a high one day death total. I have to assume that is a correction. I’d advise you to stop looking for trends in a few days. We need weeks of trends to determine real concern. And not CASES. That is if you‘re not wishing for a bad for Trump outcome.

View attachment 8712
> Just for the record, how long is this lag that we need to wait for? I thought it was 2 weeks, then it became 3 or 4 weeks.

It was 2-3 weeks depending on testing-results lag and death-reporting lag and random variations. But now, on average, we're testing much earlier in the infection cycle (which is good since we have better opportunity to treat earlier). But that means the uptick in case count happens earlier. So now it's more like 3-4 weeks from cases increase to deaths (potential) increase (which may or may not be actualized depending on better treatment outcomes).
 

justthefacts

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
11,007
Reaction score
1,621
Points
113
Put the word “cherry” in front of your post and you just gave away your secret.
By which metric is the United States not doing considerably worse than most of the developed world?
 
Last edited:

KillerGopherFan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
16,876
Reaction score
1,816
Points
113
It wasn’t about what was going to happen on July 10, but what did happen on July 9. Btw, do you know that yesterday’s death count was actually yesterday’s deaths or some dates in the past? You should probably stop getting wrapped up in one day totals.
 

justthefacts

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
11,007
Reaction score
1,621
Points
113
It wasn’t about what was going to happen on July 10, but what did happen on July 9. Btw, do you know that yesterday’s death count was actually yesterday’s deaths or some dates in the past? You should probably stop getting wrapped up in one day totals.
They aren't one day totals. They're 7 day averages.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
16,732
Reaction score
946
Points
113
Why are you trying to compare 4 days to 10 weeks?

It has been the same pattern every week for 10 weeks. The overall trend continues to be down.
This is aging so well. I'd say we told you so, but....I hope you already figured this out on your own.
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 11, 2013
Messages
16,561
Reaction score
2,033
Points
113
They aren't one day totals. They're 7 day averages.
And that wasn’t what the conversation was about until you changed it to avoid having to admit you were tricked by the way the media reported that single day death count in Florida. Not after “just the facts” here, are ya?

Your triumphant statement about Florida's daily new death total not having exceed the pre-open high.
 

BarnBurner

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2010
Messages
11,450
Reaction score
689
Points
113
How
I'm not even sure what I'm looking for. How about you provide a link or two since you're the one making the claim?
about looking at what dr Ernst said about masks? I asked you to do that and you responded you only trust certain folks studying masks. So I already did and you, again, dismissed him.
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
1,810
Reaction score
603
Points
113
It wasn’t about what was going to happen on July 10, but what did happen on July 9. Btw, do you know that yesterday’s death count was actually yesterday’s deaths or some dates in the past? You should probably stop getting wrapped up in one day totals.
You're working so hard to be in denial.
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
1,810
Reaction score
603
Points
113
And those 7 day averages that include data from dates outside of those 7 days can distort those 7 day averages significantly, as you found out.
So what you're really trying to say is that someone is manipulating deaths by failing to report them on holidays when it would look worse for Trump, and then divying them up amongst later dates?

You might be on to something...
 

KillerGopherFan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
16,876
Reaction score
1,816
Points
113
You're working so hard to be in denial.
No, in fact if you look at some of my prior posts a few pages back, I’ve said that deaths almost inevitably will trend up based on the increase in cases in Florida. IMO though, it’s unlikely that deaths will grow at the rate or anywhere near the rate that cases have, which is what the media is implying may happen.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, but cases may not be as disastrous as the media wants us to believe. By focusing on the number of cases, the media gets to instill a higher level of panic about something that may not happen, and blame Republicans for results that we don’t yet know.
 

GophersInIowa

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
25,950
Reaction score
1,375
Points
113
How

about looking at what dr Ernst said about masks? I asked you to do that and you responded you only trust certain folks studying masks. So I already did and you, again, dismissed him.
Because I don't feel like searching through multiple pages and threads to find something that you're talking about. I still have no clue who that person is or what you're talking about.

And why are you making things up? I never said I only trust certain folks studying masks and I never dismissed this person you're talking about because I have no clue what you're referring to.
 

BarnBurner

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2010
Messages
11,450
Reaction score
689
Points
113
Because I don't feel like searching through multiple pages and threads to find something that you're talking about. I still have no clue who that person is or what you're talking about.

And why are you making things up? I never said I only trust certain folks studying masks and I never dismissed this person you're talking about because I have no clue what you're referring to.
Your post 17,168. Item 4.
I am sure you will apologize for accusing me of making things up after reading your own post.
Wow.

Just to help you out, the discussion has been about the ineffectiveness or masks.
 
Top Bottom