The new Corona virus, should we worry?

KillerGopherFan

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Here is a good article that explains what Florida did differently to protect the nursing homes. There better performance didn't happen by some happy accident. Common sense is a really cool thing when put into action:
No, according to cnnman and jtf, it was good fortune. They won’t be interested in the truth.
 

CutDownTheNet

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Do we know specifically what some states are doing better/differently to protect assisted living facilities? Or are we just looking at the numbers and assuming that places like Texas and Florida are doing a better job from that?
I think it's more like "we are just looking at the numbers and assuming that places like Texas and Florida are doing a better job from that."

For one thing (as previously noted) there is yet to be a consistent reporting across all 50 states of the situation in assisted living/long term care facilities, so it's difficult to even see for sure (without doing a lot of work) which states are "doing best" in that department. However we do have anecdotal evidence plus some data available, if one puts in the work and compares pairs of states at a time. But there's 1225 pairs of states (and so it would be much easier to compare if one could get a spreadsheet of all 50 states' AL/LTC data and just sort that).

Let's just take as an example Minnesota vs Texas vs Florida, and see how they're doing relative to each other (as states, in general) while knowing that Minnesota is pretty much the worst state in how it's done on AL/LTC (with 81% of its deaths in that category) and also taking on (anecdotal) faith that Texas and Florida might be doing much better in terms of handling the AL/LTC situation.

I had heard that Texas was doing a lot of testing (lately) so I started by comparing Total Tests per 1M Population between Minnesota and Texas (by sorting on that). It turns out that Minnesota and Texas are actually very close in that statistic (29,672 and 27,435, respectively). That being the case, I also took the 6 states between them in that statistic (to get some variety) and then added Florida to the mix. Florida does a little better at testing, at 37,973 Total Tests per 1M Population.

Texas (per current data as of May 21 5:30 PM CDT) has 51 Total Deaths per 1M Population, whereas Minnesota has 145, which is 2.84 X worse than Texas. One can easily imagine that, under the hypothetical assumption that Minnesota magically eliminated those 81% of deaths stemming from its mismanagement of the AL/LTC situation, then in that case Minnesota would have only 27.5 deaths grand total, which would actually be much better than Texas. Of course, we couldn't magically get rid of all of those AL/LTC deaths, plus Texas must at least have some in that category, so what we can conclude (approximately) is that as we suspected, Minnesota did much worse than Texas in handling the AL/LTC situation, but otherwise did about the same as Texas for the general population.

Florida had 100 Total Deaths per 1M Population - midway between Texas and Minnesota. One can at least make some conjectures regarding Minnesota vs Florida. First, again it must be the case that Minnesota did a lot worse than Florida in handling the AL/LTC situation. Given that it is almost certainly the case that Florida has more seniors (per capita) than either Texas or Minnesota, it could well be the case that Florida did worse than Texas due to its larger senior population than Texas, whereas Minnesota did worse than Florida (in spite of a lower per-capita senior population) clearly due to Minnesota's total mis-handling of the AL/LTC situation.

So although the logic is a bit complex, we definitely can see evidence in the raw numbers that demonstrates how Minnesota's mis-handling of the AL/LTC situation made its overall COVID-19 results much worse than either Florida or Texas, even though Minnesota probably fared as well or better than either of those states in terms of its results in the general (non-AL/LTC) population.

Good for Texas and Florida, but shame on Minnesota. Shame on Walz. In terms of how badly he handled the AL/LTC scenario, Walz did much worse than Cuomo, in my opinion.

Here's the data for Minnesota and Texas and Florida plus a sampling of other states that fall into various categories (in terms of state population density and where they are and how well they are doing in terms of fighting off the COVID-19 pandemic.

StateTotal CasesNew CasesTotal DeathsNew DeathsActive CasesTotal TestsM PopulationTotal Cases / 1M PopulationTotal Deaths / 1M PopulationTotal Tests / 1M PopulationCases / Test Percentage
Montana
479​
1​
16​
0​
23​
30,524​
1.068768​
448​
15​
28,560​
1.569%​
Florida
48,675​
1,204​
2,145​
49​
38,892​
815,584​
21.478​
2,266​
100​
37,973​
5.968%​
Texas
52,986​
1,335​
1,480​
57​
19,884​
795,509​
28.99614​
1,827​
51​
27,435​
6.661%​
North Carolina
20,910​
649​
726​
0​
8,547​
290,645​
10.48806​
1,994​
69​
27,712​
7.194%​
Minnesota
18,200​
530​
818​
32​
4,894​
167,338​
5.639593​
3,227​
145​
29,672​
10.876%​
Virginia
34,137​
1,229​
1,099​
25​
28,767​
241,957​
8.535542​
3,999​
129​
28,347​
14.109%​
Pennsylvania
69,276​
1,125​
4,917​
95​
57,090​
373,133​
12.8022​
5,411​
384​
29,146​
18.566%​

The above data are sorted in increasing order of the column "Cases / Test Percentage." That column is computed by dividing the Total Cases in the state by the Total Tests administered by the state, and expressing the result as a percentage. It's essentially the percentage of positive tests, and is a great metric that shows how well a state is doing in testing relative to the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in that state.

Although most of the states were picked for this example due to having very similar values of Total Tests per Million Population, and Florida has a slightly higher Tests per Million, what's more important is to conduct sufficiently broad testing such that the percentage of positive tests gets very low. An ideal goal would be to get the percent-positives down to one percent or lower.

We see that Montana has nearly achieved that goal, and currently stands at 1.569% - one of the leading states in that category. This is due to a combination of low population density in the wide-open spaces of Montana (so that the coronavirus never got completely out of hand there, as it did in, say, New York) plus fairly expansive testing per million of population, with the result of dropping the percent positives quite near the goal of one percent or less. Montana is fighting off COVID-19 quite well, with only 479 cases and 16 deaths.

It's a quantum leap up to the 5.968% positives of Florida and the 6.661% positives of Texas and the 7.194% positives of North Carolina. These states aren't nearly as sparsely populated as Montana, so that is to be expected. They need to test more broadly in order to get the percent positives down to the level of Montana or better. If they did so, they might be able to identifiy a sufficient number of (now unknown) infected people as actual cases, and quarantine them.

The next worse case in the percent-positives category would be Minnesota at 10.876% positives. But notice that when you order the states by percent positives, you can see that only Florida and Minnesota "mess up" the otherwise valid pattern that Total Deaths per Million goes up as percent positives goes up. I conjecture that Florida has a larger Deaths per Million since it has a lot of older retired folks living there, whereas Minnesota has an even larger yet Deaths per Million since it has done such a bad job in the AL/LTC category.

Finally we have Virginia and then Pennsylvania at 14.109% positives and 18.566% positives, respectively. If you discount Minnesota's 81% AL/LTC deaths, then Minnesota is doing better than Virginia, which has 129 Total Deaths per Million. But Pennsylvania fares the worst of these example states, being more like a New York or New Jersey in nature. Pennsylvania has 384 Total Deaths per Million, which is a far cry from Montana's 15, and even a far cry from Minnesota's 27.5 non-AL/LTC deaths.

Pennsylvania is in dire need to expand its testing so as to lower its percent positives, and that's because the coronavirus pandemic is much worse in Pennsylvania than in, say, Montana. Minnesota is in much better shape than Pennsylvania, yet needs to expand its testing ten-fold and test the general populace better, plus it needs 100% weekly-testing coverage of all AL/LTC facilities, including all staff and all patients - something some of us have been clamoring for, for a while now.
 
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stocker08

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I think it's more like "we are just looking at the numbers and assuming that places like Texas and Florida are doing a better job from that."

For one thing (as previously noted) there is yet to be a consistent reporting across all 50 states of the situation in assisted living/long term care facilities, so it's difficult to even see for sure (without doing a lot of work) which states are "doing best" in that department. However we do have anecdotal evidence plus some data available, if one puts in the work and compares pairs of states at a time. But there's 1225 pairs of states (and so it would be much easier to compare if one could get a spreadsheet of all 50 states' AL/LTC data and just sort that).
This is one of the big issues. As we've now seen....certain states (at least Florida for sure) are altering their numbers. It would make sense that states that have pushed to open earlier and have repub governors running the show are manipulating their figures.

It's pretty pathetic....but at this point you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.
 

KillerGopherFan

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This is one of the big issues. As we've now seen....certain states (at least Florida for sure) are altering their numbers. It would make sense that states that have pushed to open earlier and have repub governors running the show are manipulating their figures.

It's pretty pathetic....but at this point you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.
You‘d believe anything to justify your opinion. That’s total BS. States may have different ways of defining what Covid deaths are (like some counting any death that the deceased is determined to have CV-19 as a CV-19 death whether it was the determining factor or not), but that doesn’t mean that Republican governors are hiding the death totals.

Do you know how hard that would be to do? A giant conspiracy requiring literally everyone to cooperate, and yet, not be found out.

I guess there is no other way to refute the data that you don’t like except to say it’s fabricated, but if true, it would be a sure way to get thrown out of office. For what, swaying the numbers 10%.

Totally ridiculous.
 

scools12

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Delusional is too weak to define this guy ⬇
This is one of the big issues. As we've now seen....certain states (at least Florida for sure) are altering their numbers. It would make sense that states that have pushed to open earlier and have repub governors running the show are manipulating their figures.

It's pretty pathetic....but at this point you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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This is one of the big issues. As we've now seen....certain states (at least Florida for sure) are altering their numbers. It would make sense that states that have pushed to open earlier and have repub governors running the show are manipulating their figures.

It's pretty pathetic....but at this point you have to take the numbers with a grain of salt.
You could very well be onto something; all the numbers that don't align with your position are being doctored.

I think you should pursue this line of thinking, fully. Get back to us with a full report when you can put it all together
 

stocker08

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You‘d believe anything to justify your opinion. That’s total BS. States may have different ways of defining what Covid deaths are (like some counting any death that the deceased is determined to have CV-19 as a CV-19 death whether it was the determining factor or not), but that doesn’t mean that Republican governors are hiding the death totals.

Do you know how hard that would be to do? A giant conspiracy requiring literally everyone to cooperate, and yet, not be found out.

I guess there is no other way to refute the data that you don’t like except to say it’s fabricated, but if true, it would be a sure way to get thrown out of office. For what, swaying the numbers 10%.

Totally ridiculous.
fools12 said:
Delusional is too weak to define this guy
Sorry that Florida got caught. Boo hoo. Doesn't surprise me that after three years+ of excusing away Trump and company's $hitty behavior.....you'd like to wish this away too.

But if you are going to continue to post nonsense about how great states like Florida are doing by opening up....and expect not to have this thrown in your face.....LOL!

They are frauds and so are both of you.
 

stocker08

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You could very well be onto something; all the numbers that don't align with your position are being doctored.

I think you should pursue this line of thinking, fully. Get back to us with a full report when you can put it all together
Nobody got fired for not doctoring the numbers.

Got it. Keep letting infowars lead you away from what you don't want to hear, ogee.
 

scools12

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But if you are going to continue to post nonsense about how great states like Florida are doing by opening up....and expect not to have this thrown in your face.....LOL!
Throw what in anyone’s face? You post wild accusations as fact and not once have you ever provided any actual proof of your claims.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Sorry that Florida got caught. Boo hoo. Doesn't surprise me that after three years+ of excusing away Trump and company's $hitty behavior.....you'd like to wish this away too.

But if you are going to continue to post nonsense about how great states like Florida are doing by opening up....and expect not to have this thrown in your face.....LOL!

They are frauds and so are both of you.
Florida is reporting its numbers just fine. Even the media isn’t buying this BS. Stop spreading fake news.
 

stocker08

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Throw what in anyone’s face? You post wild accusations as fact and not once have you ever provided any actual proof of your claims.
Not a wild accusation. It's a fact. A Florida data analyst was fired for not altering the covid data being represented.

I get it. It hurts your righty brain.
 

stocker08

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Florida is reporting its numbers just fine. Even the media isn’t buying this BS. Stop spreading fake news.
Sure thing. Just had to fire someone for not altering them correctly.

HAHAHAHA!

Frauds. Fake numbers. DeSantis caught with his pants around his ankles.
 

stocker08

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You really are not good at this. ⬇
Good find. I wonder how many of those states are like Florida. Intentionally manipulating their numbers?

Good thing you like fake numbers to go along with the fake information that Trump gives you. As long as it comes from the right.
 

stocker08

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What a tool you are? Get some facts and stop spreading misinformation:

What was her position? Why was she fired?

Sounds like DeSantis is trying to cover his a$$. And you, of course, are eating it up.

They ASKED her to change the numbers! LOL!!!!! Glad they got them fixed for you sheeple. Keep me in the loop on how great Florida is doing with their manipulated numbers!
 

scools12

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Good find. I wonder how many of those states are like Florida. Intentionally manipulating their numbers?

Good thing you like fake numbers to go along with the fake information that Trump gives you. As long as it comes from the right.
I give you credit for stickIng to your game plan of getting torched on this board daily.
 

KillerGopherFan

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What was her position? Why was she fired?

Sounds like DeSantis is trying to cover his a$$. And you, of course, are eating it up.

They ASKED her to change the numbers! LOL!!!!! Glad they got them fixed for you sheeple. Keep me in the loop on how great Florida is doing with their manipulated numbers!
Most likely a lefty tool with her own agenda and a criminal to boot. You don’t think her story isn’t being scrutinized by the media trying to find something to validate her? I wonder why we haven’t heard anymore about her? We know no apologies from the media will be forthcoming if they can’t find anything. They’ll just be onto the next bit of fake news.
 

stocker08

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Article from the Tampa Bay Times about Jones and her dismissal. Paints a far different picture than DeSantis squirted out. Don't let that stop the righty sheeple from thinking otherwise.

Florida Health Department manager told to delete coronavirus data is ousted
She said she was offered a settlement and the option to resign in lieu of being fired.

One day before a top Florida Department of Health data manager lost her role maintaining the state’s COVID-19 data, she objected to the removal of records showing people had symptoms or positive tests before the cases were announced, according to internal emails obtained by the Tampa Bay Times.

On Tuesday, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis said she had been fired.

According to the emails, department staff gave the order shortly after reporters requested the same data from the agency on May 5. The data manager, Rebekah Jones, complied with the order, but not before she told her supervisors it was the “wrong call.”

By the next morning, control over the data was given to other employees, according to an email Jones posted Friday on a public listserv. Jones, the department’s geographic information systems manager, wrote that she was no longer handling questions about the department’s “Florida’s COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard.” She implied her removal was an act of retribution.

Jones said Tuesday that she was offered a settlement and the option to resign in lieu of being fired, effective May 26.

The dashboard that Jones managed is the best official source for in-depth data on how the deadly pandemic is moving through the state. Studying it is the surest way to know where outbreaks are growing and where testing is being done. Without access to the data, Floridians would have to rely on the word of officials and politicians without being able to verify for themselves.

Along with the dashboard, the department releases the same data, with only slightly more information, in daily reports, as well as in another format that allows for easier data analysis.

In her Friday email to subscribers of a COVID data listserv, Jones said she was reassigned on May 5 “[f]or reasons beyond my division’s control” and warned that whoever took over may be less straightforward.

“As a word of caution, I would not expect the new team to continue the same level of accessibility and transparency that I made central to the process during the first two months. After all, my commitment to both is largely (arguably entirely) the reason I am no longer managing it,” she wrote.

“They are making a lot of changes. I would advise being diligent in your respective uses of this data.”

Jones also told CBS12 in Tallahassee on Monday that she refused to “manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen” the state.

When asked during a Tuesday news conference about Jones’ public email detailing her reassignment, DeSantis said he did not know who she was but that he had been shown an email that Jones sent to her supervisor, apologizing.

His spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre Ferré, wrote in an email to reporters after the news conference that Jones “exhibited a repeated course of insubordination during her time with the Department, including her unilateral decisions to modify the Department’s COVID-19 dashboard without input or approval from the epidemiological team or her supervisors.”

Ferré's email included the email that DeSantis referenced. Sent Saturday, Jones told her supervisor that her comments about the employees replacing her had been misconstrued.

“What I meant when I said I don’t expect the same level of accessibility is that they are busy and can’t answer every single email they get right away,” Jones wrote to her supervisor. “Is this one of those stupid things I shouldn’t have said?”

Still, there was much DeSantis didn’t address. Why was Jones instructed to take data down, as shown in the emails? Why was she taken off the dashboard and later terminated? He then left the conference as reporters shouted follow-up questions.

Emails sent within the department on May 4 indicate a busy timeline leading up to Jones’ reassignment.

That day, according to the Miami Herald, reporters contacted the department to ask about the “EventDate” field of data, which showed when people first reported coronavirus symptoms or positive test results. Some people had listed dates as early as January 1, indicating people reported symptomatic or tested positive much earlier than when cases were confirmed in March. It is unclear when the state learned about those cases, or when the people were tested.

Sometime that day, the column vanished from the “Person Cases” data, which lists anonymized records for every confirmed case in Florida. The Palm Beach Post reported the disappearance the next day, May 5.

The Tampa Bay Times automatically checks for changes in the data and archives new updates. Shortly before 10:12 a.m on May 4., data still included the EventDate field, showing records with listed dates that people reported symptoms as early as January 1. By 3:02 p.m., the column was gone.

For much of the next day, May 5, the column was either missing or empty, with every row listing “None.” Finally, it returned shortly before 8:02 p.m.

Times reporters asked Health Department spokesman Alberto Moscoso that day why the data disappeared. Two days later, he said, “This field continues to be represented on the Department’s COVID-19 Dashboard.”

Moscoso did not reply to requests for comment Tuesday.

According to internal emails reviewed by the Times, Department of Health I.T. Director Craig Curry emailed Rebekah Jones just before 5 p.m. on May 4. He cited Dr. Carina Blackmore, director for the Division of Disease Control and Health Protection.

“Per Dr. Blackmore, disable the ability to export the data to files from the dashboard immediately. We need to ensure that dates (date fields) in all objects match their counterpart on the PDF line list published,” Curry wrote.

The tables in the PDF documents did not include the column of data showing when symptoms were first reported, only the “Case Date” — the date the state recorded and confirmed the case.

“This is the wrong call,” Jones replied minutes later.

A few minutes later, she emailed Curry again. “Case line data is down.”

Then, just after 6 p.m., the I.T. director emailed both Jones and Dr. Blackmore. “Re-enable for now please.”

Jones replied, “10-4.”

Neither Dr. Blackmore nor Curry replied to requests for comment.

Shortly before DeSantis’ Tuesday news conference, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried, the only Democrat holding statewide office, released an open letter to the governor, requesting top health officials appear before the Cabinet next week.

Fried wrote that Jones’ reported reassignment and forced resignation "undermine public trust in our government, are extraordinarily dangerous to public health, and are absolutely inconsistent with the transparency and accuracy that Floridians expect and deserve during this pandemic.”

In a video news conference following DeSantis’ remarks, state Senate Democrats criticized the decision to fire Jones. They argued it was an act of political retribution.

“(Jones) was a brave woman who refused to fudge the numbers and she was punished for it, and that’s wrong,” Janet Cruz, D-Tampa, said in response to a question about the data manager.

According to the Syracuse University alumni magazine, Jones joined the Department of Health in 2018. She worked for emergency response teams after hurricanes Michael and Dorian before becoming GIS manager in November 2019. Jones graduated from Syracuse before earning a master’s degree in geography at Louisiana State University and then teaching and working towards a Ph.D. at Florida State University, according to a resume posted to Florida State’s website.

Jones, 30, built the dashboard “from scratch,” she told the magazine in March. Through early May, she had provided information and updates on the tool to researchers and journalists, including Times reporters.

“If you look at our data services, there’s a lot of publicly available data, because it’s critical information,” Jones in April told a blog by Esri, the company that creates software used by the department.

“We would much rather the public or the press have the data that we’ve triple checked than to scrape the web trying to count cases or have a research group or university create a model with data that we haven’t verified," Jones said in the article. "The efforts in the academic community to do serious data modeling are crucial right now.”

The same dashboard received national attention when Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, first raved about it April 20.

“So I did spend about five hours going to every state website, and I will tell you that the - Florida’s Department of Health website is extraordinary,” Birx told reporters at the White House. “This is how we have to inform the American public, and this is where the American public will develop confidence in each of their counties and local governments.”

Jones said she was reassigned 15 days later.
 

scools12

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Most likely a lefty tool with her own agenda and a criminal to boot. You don’t think her story isn’t being scrutinized by the media trying to find something to validate her? I wonder why we haven’t heard anymore about her? We know no apologies from the media will be forthcoming if they can’t find anything. They’ll just be onto the next bit of fake news.
If it was a story at all it would’ve been huge national news. This non story last 10 minutes. The media has already moved on.
 

stocker08

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Most likely a lefty tool with her own agenda and a criminal to boot. You don’t think her story isn’t being scrutinized by the media trying to find something to validate her? I wonder why we haven’t heard anymore about her? We know no apologies from the media will be forthcoming if they can’t find anything. They’ll just be onto the next bit of fake news.
HAHAHA! Most likely! And most likely a criminal too!

You're such a hack. Don't mind the manipulated data here folks. Nothing to see here folks. Is that a dead body? If DeSantis said it wasn't? KFC would believe it. Probably was a criminal.
 

stocker08

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If it was a story at all it would’ve been huge national news. This non story last 10 minutes. The media has already moved on.
Nothing is bigger news the virus itself. Nothing. Just saying....don't be so proud of your re-opened states covid numbers. Florida specifically asked Jones to modify her numbers to support their re-opening.

Lol. Fake numbers for phonies.
 

stocker08

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Stocker is always a day late and a dollar short. He can’t keep up. Fortunately, everyone here knows that.
That's what I'd expect you to say when 14 hours of research turns up empty and you have no choice but to feign ignorance. Back to fonks news!
 
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