- Nov 21, 2008
- Reaction score
Good explanation, thanks!Those could be a factor, but just the basic math behind social distancing and what they've modeled doesn't make any sense. They keep modeling a delaying of the peak, and show very little flattening of the curve. Their different scenarios even show that social distancing isn't necessarily preventing deaths, it's just delaying them.
When they released their early April update, they even said within a 95% probability that we'll be at peak ICU demand beginning in mid May. At that time there was ~70 in the ICU, and they said we were going to need ~3000 ICU beds at peak. That was complete crazy talk, and it still is, especially when considering they extended the SAH order at that time.
This video is a great explanation of the math behind social distancing and how it flattens the curve. It's like the MN modelers have completely ignored basics behind this.