The new Corona virus, should we worry?

OldBob53

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 15, 2019
Messages
1,330
Reaction score
225
Points
63
The main problem with infection data coming out of China is its controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, which wants to avoid panicking 1.4 billion citizens. That said, here are latest such numbers : total cases 40,000, deaths 1000.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,235
Reaction score
1,772
Points
113
Recent radio interview transcipt. Mostly good news and some not so good news. widespread illness in mainland China but the mortality rate seems to be much lower than feared, lower virulence than SARS but worse than seasonal influenza; however the numbers coming out out of China cannot be trusted as accurate. The next few weeks will be telling on how this might progress.


Prof Neil Ferguson - Director of MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London

Key points:
• Early stages of a global pandemic - containment has failed in mainland China

• Hand washing, mask, isolation will slow virus transmission/spread but may not contain it.

• China numbers are misleading - only 5% of cases are being detected as most cases cause mild symptoms. Based on todays numbers that would mean the number of infected is actually around 840,000.

• Mortality rate much lower than the Wuhan rate (20%), perhaps around 1% is an uncertain estimate. True death total in China would be at least 8,400.

• Beijing hospitals reportedly ‘full of pneumonia cases’

• In the UK only one in three cases are being detected; local transmission may begin in a few weeks

• 60% of population will be infected if community transmission takes hold; this could mean around 40million infected and 400,000 dead in UK

Transcript
Interviewer: How well are we doing at detecting the virus?

I think case numbers are the tip of the iceberg, particularly in China where they are only detecting probably 5% of cases - the most severe - so i think it is misleading to look at the Chinese case numbers effectively they’re just looking at the epidemic in Hubei and Wuhan Provence. Outside that province they are only reporting cases that have a link to Wuhan since they sealed the city two weeks ago it is unsurprising that cases are going down.

I think were in the early phases of a global pandemic at the moment. Singapore is seeing local transmission. The fact that we’ve only reported 8 cases in this country is just because again our surveillance is focussed on travellers. We think probably we’re picking up maybe one in three cases at the current time.

We will know more in the next few weeks when surveillance is started in hospitals across the UK of pneumonia cases. That will give us a proper picture. I think the sort of measures John Oxford talked about may have some potential to slow spread down and move us out of the flu season, release NHS pressures a bit, but i think it is highly unlikely that will stop transmission of this virus.

Interviewer: And when you talked about local transmission can you explain exactly what that means?

So at the moment we’ve been seeing cases, detecting cases, in travellers, they were infected overseas effectively. When we can be sure transmission has started here we’re getting transmission from person-to-person within the UK in a sustained manner - that’s what we mean by local transmission.

Interviewer: And what about death rates from the disease?

So again the picture in China is somewhat misleading for a number of reasons. They are mostly hospitalising very severe cases and there is a three week delay from basically when somebody gets ill to when they die, so you have to compare the deaths being seen now with cases three weeks ago so in Wuhan for instance, the cases they are detecting have a mortality of 20% but since that’s the tip of the iceberg the overall mortality rate we think is much lower but still potentially concerning maybe 1% of those getting infected might die but we have a lot of uncertainty around that estimate.

Interviewer: Is it possible to know when this might reach a peak?

So I think at the moment our best estimates are really that transmission will really get going in the UK in the next few weeks unless we’re very lucky probably peaking two or three months after that. It has to be borne in mind the epidemic in Wuhan is peaking at the moment, it’s be going for 3 months since the beginning of December, we have no real idea what’s going on in the rest of China. Hospitals in Beijing apparently are full of pneumonia cases which are not being tested so we have no clear indication of true numbers in China. So that is a planning assumption in the UK. We would all of course like it to be less severe than we’re worrying about but policy has to plan for the worst case, or at least the reasonable worst case, which is what’s going on now.

Interviewer: So what should they be planning for in terms of numbers getting the virus?

If it truly establishes itself in terms of community person-to-person transmission, it will behave actually a lot like a flu pandemic. Maybe about 60% of the population getting infected, but most of those people will have very very mild symptoms.
 
Last edited:

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
Well, if mass infection is so inevitable, they’re not just going to sit around and let 0.6% of Earth’s population die.

There will be a vaccine. It’s a matter of how fast they green light it and how fast it can be mass produced.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
15,000 new cases since yesterday in China. The bug is out of control now. It is in the uncontained phase. I like figures like confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. Mortality still hovers around 2.2%.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
I like figures like confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.
Problem with this is the large number of cases that didn’t die and have recovered and were/are never reported.

This is influenza C.
 

OldBob53

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 15, 2019
Messages
1,330
Reaction score
225
Points
63
Problem with this is the large number of cases that didn’t die and have recovered and were/are never reported.

This is influenza C.
The large number of cases that didn't die include many that didn't even display any symptoms, its been reported. But that cuts both ways, as it also means there are a large number of infected people spreading the virus further afield, because they don't even know they're carrying it.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,235
Reaction score
1,772
Points
113
Problem with this is the large number of cases that didn’t die and have recovered and were/are never reported.

This is influenza C.
Well, it’s not influenza C but it also isn’t time to buy face paint, cut a Mohawk, and mount a flame thrower on an ATV.

Nobody really has a firm number on actual percentages because it seems likely some people are minimally symptomatic as with the flu or the common cold and just bunker at home. However like with CTE...there are more vulnerable populations, genetically predisposed people that will have a hard time with this, but it looks like for the vast majority this strain causes a ”flu-like” illness.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

Over Macho Grande?
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,993
Reaction score
1,614
Points
113
Shit's getting real now. The corona virus could very soon be causing a serious shortage of hockey sticks in the NHL with two of the largest manufacturers, Bauer and CCM, being in China and their factories there being shut down.

Hockey Stick Shortage

I wasn't really that concerned about the virus breakout.... until NOW. Damnit!!
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 18, 2013
Messages
16,235
Reaction score
1,772
Points
113
Shit's getting real now. The corona virus could very soon be causing a serious shortage of hockey sticks in the NHL with two of the largest manufacturers, Bauer and CCM, being in China and their factories there being shut down.

Hockey Stick Shortage

I wasn't really that concerned about the virus breakout.... until NOW. Damnit!!
Was that article from The Onion?
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
Scientists talking about bats as a source of nCov19 and in general with viruses.

 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
I will assert again that it was a bioweapon. If you get this disease a second time, it wipes out your lung function and the possibility of death is just about a given. And, there are now cases of second infection and they all have passed.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
You can take wild guesses all you want, but you have no evidence.



Your immune system kills it.

Unless it mutated
Wrong. That is how it should work in theory. But, in this case, it just completely destroys the lungs and very quickly.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
Unless it’s HIV and kills your immune system, he’s just wrong. Of course no link.

I won’t be believing him, unless it becomes mainstream news I guess.

He has this really weird attitude about whining that you ask him to cite his claims. He thinks you should do his citations for him.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
49,526
Reaction score
7,288
Points
113
The only thing I have found is that a few people have gotten re-infected and due to the drugs used to treat the illness they had cardiac issues. And that was a NY Post story. Not exactly an A+ source.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
Covid-19 attaches itself to the ACE-2 enzyme, which is common throughout the lungs and GI tract. And, it is a common on smooth muscles, such as the heart. A number of patients appeared to recover, only to later relapse in a secondary peak of the infection, and during this episode, the damage to the lungs and heart are extensive.

This is the same entryway as the SARS virus, which is closely related to COVID-19. Since the virus as an incubation period of up to 24 days where patients are asymptomatic, it is thought that the virus goes into a period of remission after an acute initial phase. When the virus reappears symptomatically, it then destroys the weakened tissues, especially epithelial cells that wall the heart.

If you want to read up on this, go to the NIH database and put in the search COVID-19 and ACE-2 and you will find all you need to read up.

There are some viral infections that go into a period of dormancy and have not been destroyed by immune factors and return to morph into secondary infections. So MPLSGOPHER is simply wrong about how the immune system functions for this virus. In fact, he is dangerously wrong.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
The only thing I have found is that a few people have gotten re-infected and due to the drugs used to treat the illness they had cardiac issues. And that was a NY Post story. Not exactly an A+ source.
Follow the idiots path if you want.
 

GoodasGold

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
10,461
Reaction score
1,288
Points
113
Covid-19 attaches itself to the ACE-2 enzyme, which is common throughout the lungs and GI tract. And, it is a common on smooth muscles, such as the heart. A number of patients appeared to recover, only to later relapse in a secondary peak of the infection, and during this episode, the damage to the lungs and heart are extensive.

This is the same entryway as the SARS virus, which is closely related to COVID-19. Since the virus as an incubation period of up to 24 days where patients are asymptomatic, it is thought that the virus goes into a period of remission after an acute initial phase. When the virus reappears symptomatically, it then destroys the weakened tissues, especially epithelial cells that wall the heart.

If you want to read up on this, go to the NIH database and put in the search COVID-19 and ACE-2 and you will find all you need to read up.

There are some viral infections that go into a period of dormancy and have not been destroyed by immune factors and return to morph into secondary infections. So MPLSGOPHER is simply wrong about how the immune system functions for this virus. In fact, he is dangerously wrong.
I’ve an ACE Hardware near me, but nothing of the ACE-2 variety.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
Covid-19 attaches itself to the ACE-2 enzyme, which is common throughout the lungs and GI tract. And, it is a common on smooth muscles, such as the heart. A number of patients appeared to recover, only to later relapse in a secondary peak of the infection, and during this episode, the damage to the lungs and heart are extensive.

This is the same entryway as the SARS virus, which is closely related to COVID-19. Since the virus as an incubation period of up to 24 days where patients are asymptomatic, it is thought that the virus goes into a period of remission after an acute initial phase. When the virus reappears symptomatically, it then destroys the weakened tissues, especially epithelial cells that wall the heart.

If you want to read up on this, go to the NIH database and put in the search COVID-19 and ACE-2 and you will find all you need to read up.

There are some viral infections that go into a period of dormancy and have not been destroyed by immune factors and return to morph into secondary infections. So MPLSGOPHER is simply wrong about how the immune system functions for this virus. In fact, he is dangerously wrong.
If this gets picked up by reporters / journalists with skin in the game, sure I’ll believe. Until then, nope.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
19,752
Reaction score
4,198
Points
113
Here is a highly scientific blog article talking about I guess we’ve switched to covid19 now and ace2:


Sure, fine. But that in of itself doesn’t mean - and the article doesn’t mention anything of the sort - of this secondary, fatal surge, or being a bio-weapon.


I have no idea why Dean wants those two aspects to be true.
 

JimmyJamesMD

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
8,956
Reaction score
1,409
Points
113
Covid-19 attaches itself to the ACE-2 enzyme, which is common throughout the lungs and GI tract. And, it is a common on smooth muscles, such as the heart. A number of patients appeared to recover, only to later relapse in a secondary peak of the infection, and during this episode, the damage to the lungs and heart are extensive.

This is the same entryway as the SARS virus, which is closely related to COVID-19. Since the virus as an incubation period of up to 24 days where patients are asymptomatic, it is thought that the virus goes into a period of remission after an acute initial phase. When the virus reappears symptomatically, it then destroys the weakened tissues, especially epithelial cells that wall the heart.

If you want to read up on this, go to the NIH database and put in the search COVID-19 and ACE-2 and you will find all you need to read up.

There are some viral infections that go into a period of dormancy and have not been destroyed by immune factors and return to morph into secondary infections. So MPLSGOPHER is simply wrong about how the immune system functions for this virus. In fact, he is dangerously wrong.
I'm on board with it being a bio-weapon. Just magically appeared in Iran
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
You're right. I'll start believing what random people say on internet message boards even when they offer no source.
Who is asking you to do that? Not me. I wouldn't either. But, that doesn't mean the information is poor when it comes to my sources. Just saying you should prepare for the pandemic that is now emerging. This is not going to be like a common cold. And, the average age of who ends up in the hospital for critical care on this may be lower than you think.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
532
Points
113
China's economy is contracting. Sales of cars down 92%. Factories that are trying to reopen are having trouble. Government trying to raise funds to pay workers during the downtime. It is seriously messed up. The thump you are about to hear is China falling into the Pacific. And, we thought it would be California!
 

TruthSeeker

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Messages
5,037
Reaction score
1,556
Points
113
I already told you clowns. China developed the weapon. China is getting crushed by Trump. The Clintons know this. They also know that no democratic candidate will have the delegates to win on the 1st ballot at the convention.

So, the Clintons, through an intermediary, approached China to remove Trump. China unleashed the weapon on its own people to start a worldwide recession. A recession will guarantee Trump loses. Why does this matter?

When the DNC convention takes place, Hillary Clinton will be placed into nomination for president as a compromise candidate after every other democrat fails to get enough delegates to win.

Clinton will win the nomination and go on to defeat a weakened Trump in the election. Once Clinton takes office, she will loosen the leash on China. That's why China is in on this. They get a friend in the White House.
 
Top Bottom