The new Corona virus, should we worry?

justthefacts

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My big worry is not that any member of my family will get sick and die from coronavirus. My worry is that it will spread so far and be deadly enough to cause major work stoppages, city quarantines etc. Society could have a pretty large temporary breakdown if we start quarantining American cities, or having widespread power outages.

Obviously we're a very long way from that now, but it's in the range of outcomes at this point, especially with that one guy who went from Singapore to the French ski resort.
 

GoodasGold

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Sh*t... If Dean's worried, I'm worried.
Dean is often worried, but he knows his stuff so now he has me worried. Read that South Korea is reporting virus infections in North Korea. I can only image that will be a sh!t show. Kim Jong Un might become Kim Jong il. The only Good news is coming out of Mar a Lago where the IMPOTUS has announced the Wuhan virus will evaporate in April. Or so many people are saying. Meanwhile He is contemplating sequestering himself and family (only one daughter, two sons and one wife) at his resort until April comes and goes. Not even Jared and Eric made the cut. Best of luck to all.
 

MplsGopher

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Many more people have died from the flu. The seasonal flu. This year. Thousands more.

At this point, my lay person’s opinion is this: there will be more damage done to the world outside of China from fear mongering than the virus itself. Especially the part about it being a weapon.

Right now, that part of it especially comes off as smart people trying to sound smart. That happens. But I’m not buying it. We’ll see. Obviously no government would admit to developing such a weapon. But humans are awful at keeping secrets. If there was malfeasance and/or negligence behind this ... someone will talk, something will leak.
 

justthefacts

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Many more people have died from the flu. The seasonal flu. This year. Thousands more.

At this point, my lay person’s opinion is this: there will be more damage done to the world outside of China from fear mongering than the virus itself. Especially the part about it being a weapon.

Right now, that part of it especially comes off as smart people trying to sound smart. That happens. But I’m not buying it. We’ll see. Obviously no government would admit to developing such a weapon. But humans are awful at keeping secrets. If there was malfeasance and/or negligence behind this ... someone will talk, something will leak.
Comparing the absolute death totals from a virus that has existed for years to one that has existed for 6 weeks is ludicrous.

If the point is that everyone should get the flu shot every year, I agree. But if the point is that we coronavirus is much less dangerous than influenza, then the only legitimate response is, "we can't possibly know that yet."
 

MplsGopher

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Comparing the absolute death totals from a virus that has existed for years to one that has existed for 6 weeks is ludicrous.
I said this year. Also, deadliness actually has more to do with how a virus mutates and thus evades defenses. So new viruses can often be potentially more deadly than known, stable viruses.

Regardless, the pre-fear mongering on this thread (people practically daring for there to be a world wide catastrophe, just so they can be right on a message board) is overly dramatic, at this time. Again my opinion, and we’ll see what really happens.
 

justthefacts

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I said this year. Also, deadliness actually has more to do with how a virus mutates and thus evades defenses. So new viruses can often be potentially more deadly than known, stable viruses.

Regardless, the pre-fear mongering on this thread (people practically daring for there to be a world wide catastrophe, just so they can be right on a message board) is overly dramatic, at this time. Again my opinion, and we’ll see what really happens.
Yes, the totals are from this year, but the virus has existed for much longer than that. We know all about it. It has been worldwide since before we were born.

No one is saying that people should panic, but saying that this virus could have major world consequences is not just "smart people trying to sound smart." It's just too early to know.

 

MplsGopher

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Yes, the totals are from this year, but the virus has existed for much longer than that. We know all about it. It has been worldwide since before we were born.

No one is saying that people should panic, but saying that this virus could have major world consequences is not just "smart people trying to sound smart." It's just too early to know.

I think I made it clear in my post that that part of it I was talking more about the rumors of it being a deadly weapon.
 

Deleted_User

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Well, survival rates are falling. The death rate went from 2.1 to 3.0 since yesterday. Yes, new cases reported have fallen, but the overall death rate has suddenly jumped. This, after weeks of this being known and expertise flowing into the system to help out. It should have fallen. This is really not going according to containment and control.
 

MplsGopher

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The Scientific American article quoted says that early identified cases skew to the more extreme.

So what if it’s 3% or even 5%. It’s not 25%, and it’s not going to be. Not 10% either. Containment will be good enough until a vaccine is developed, it said first trials would already be under way in a couple months.

Haven't seen any evidence of it being a weapon in the slightest. Just a new mutation that had human and animal dna and this thwarted our immune systems. The weak and elderly unfortunately died, as they do with seasonal flu.
 

bottlebass

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Many more people have died from the flu. The seasonal flu. This year. Thousands more.
It's not the number of people its the effective death rate. When this continues to spread exponentially world wide the regular seasonal flu will look like the common cold.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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It's not the number of people its the effective death rate. When this continues to spread exponentially world wide the regular seasonal flu will look like the common cold.
I have to think this is not going to be good for the AMP (Asian massage parlor) businesses. Mostly girls from China working there. This could scare away a lot of guys. Those ladies have to make a living too! Damnit!!
 

Section2

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Watching the Americans season 4, and one of the main plots is government engineered weaponized viruses.
 

OldBob53

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The problem with weaponized viruses is they can't be controlled and will spread back here. Hopefully, Trump is not stupid enough to ok something like that.
 

bottlebass

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The problem with weaponized viruses is they can't be controlled and will spread back here. Hopefully, Trump is not stupid enough to ok something like that.
If you take the time to develop a weaponized virus you would also take the time to develop an immunization against it to protect your own people. So that isn't really a problem of weaponized viruses.
 

Livingat45north

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My daughter works at WHO in Geneva. The feeling there is that the situation has peaked and that we'll start seeing a drop in the number of infections. That could easily change, but for now it seems to be under control. That being said, I'll still wear a mask for my flights the next few weeks (I'm doing a lot of travel through Europe during the rest of this month). The numbers out of China are most likely not being fully stated, and even the China folks do not have accurate numbers as it's impossible to know how many people are really infected since no one wants to go to the hospital to report it. One thing that is a positive is that China certainly took very active steps to minimize the spread -- much more than we could have done in the U.S. Imagine trying to quarantine all of the Mpls/St.Paul counties. It just wouldn't work, we'd have riots with people trying to escape. And no, this was certainly not a "weapon" that someone developed. It's a virus. The last full out flu epidemic hit the U.S. in 1918. It'll happen again, but doesn't look like this is the time.
 

MplsGopher

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My daughter works at WHO in Geneva. The feeling there is that the situation has peaked and that we'll start seeing a drop in the number of infections. That could easily change, but for now it seems to be under control. That being said, I'll still wear a mask for my flights the next few weeks (I'm doing a lot of travel through Europe during the rest of this month). The numbers out of China are most likely not being fully stated, and even the China folks do not have accurate numbers as it's impossible to know how many people are really infected since no one wants to go to the hospital to report it. One thing that is a positive is that China certainly took very active steps to minimize the spread -- much more than we could have done in the U.S. Imagine trying to quarantine all of the Mpls/St.Paul counties. It just wouldn't work, we'd have riots with people trying to escape. And no, this was certainly not a "weapon" that someone developed. It's a virus. The last full out flu epidemic hit the U.S. in 1918. It'll happen again, but doesn't look like this is the time.
THANK YOU! Awesome post, that I believe in fully.
 

MplsGopher

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Also, you’re absolutely right that quarantines would simply never be that effective in the US.

Notwithstanding the HK riots and I’m sure some others, Asians have far,far,far more respect for authority! And their authority commands/demands that respect.

In the US, as soon as any such announcement would be made, you’d have all kinds of dumb bastards saying “Gubmint can’t tell me what to do!!! Barghhh!!!“
 

Deleted_User

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I said this year. Also, deadliness actually has more to do with how a virus mutates and thus evades defenses. So new viruses can often be potentially more deadly than known, stable viruses.

Regardless, the pre-fear mongering on this thread (people practically daring for there to be a world wide catastrophe, just so they can be right on a message board) is overly dramatic, at this time. Again my opinion, and we’ll see what really happens.
You are no fun being so serious.
 

Veritas

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Until this contagion is running free in the USA I am not concerned to any appreciable degree. The total number infected or dead is very, very low compared to the great infections of the past. Plus, I take some comfort from the fact that the current president is the type who will be tough on possible transmission. He has thus far shown an excellent "lock them up" attitude. Say, compared to the AIDS disaster.
 

Veritas

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The Scientific American article quoted says that early identified cases skew to the more extreme.

So what if it’s 3% or even 5%. It’s not 25%, and it’s not going to be. Not 10% either. Containment will be good enough until a vaccine is developed, it said first trials would already be under way in a couple months.

Haven't seen any evidence of it being a weapon in the slightest. Just a new mutation that had human and animal dna and this thwarted our immune systems. The weak and elderly unfortunately died, as they do with seasonal flu.
I'm in the "no big deal yet" camp but there was a good article in the BBC asking why the 30 year old doctor who first informed the world about the infection died.
 

MplsGopher

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I'm in the "no big deal yet" camp but there was a good article in the BBC asking why the 30 year old doctor who first informed the world about the infection died.
Are you suggesting he did not actually die from complications related to the disease symptoms caused by the ncov19 infection?
 

Veritas

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Are you suggesting he did not actually die from complications related to the disease symptoms caused by the ncov19 infection?
I am not suggesting how he died, only that it is not just the old and infirm dying though that is what has been mostly reported. His death is certainly as alarming as any one death can be.
 
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