The new Corona virus, should we worry?

Bad Gopher

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Epoch Times is literally a propaganda outfit for the Chinese cult, Falun Gong. Don't trust anything they say.
...and now it's been un-tweeted. But when you do the math, it's not altogether unbelievable, especially in such a secretive society.
 

MplsGopher

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Hey, I'm reaching out for info from any GHer that happened to see the same news bit, either on some Gopher media, or maybe on the Strib, or wherever. It was about some U professors' recent research success on using 3D printers (they have a great 3D printing lab at the U, for those that didn't know) to print parts from which they could then assemble a respirator vent. I saw it but can't re-find the link. It seemed like the effort had been very successful.

If anybody has a link to that, could you post it here as reply to this post, please?

I'd like to hook them up to possible production funding from some sort of DOD related organization called Vulcan, which is funding a Hack-a-Vent-a-thon. Today (Thursday) is the last day to apply. I'd like to get the message to that U research group to, by all means, throw together a proposal to the Hack-a-Vent shindig today.

If you know the U group, please pass along the message, or else post the article link here and I can try to message them.
I posted a link of where the MDC made a makeshift ventilator for $160 in parts, but it wasn’t 3D printed.
 

MplsGopher

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We all hope, and I think that your point is largely correct. It's one of those bad-news/good-news/bad-news situations. The first bad news is that we're having new cases detected in USA at an alarming rate. The good news is that although new cases are indeed developing as new people are still getting infected, the measures we're taking do help, such that the lion's share of those new cases almost certainly must reflect better testing bandwidth.

What we don't really know is which fraction of new cases represent new infections, and which fraction represent old infections that we just weren't able to test for a week ago thanks to low testing bandwidth. Could it be 10:1 delayed detections to new infections ratio? Maybe even 100:1? Or, on the other hand, is it only 1:1? We just don't have good data on this. This is inherent to the problem (the fact that we don't have good data). Quite literally, we don't know what's the ratio of stuff that we just didn't know before to new facts that we also don't know. Why? Because we simply can't know how much it is that we don't know, due to the fact that we just don't know anything much at all! It's simply a truism!

In other words, of the new case counts, let's say on a given day there's K new cases. For some god-like know-everything entity (assuming there was such and/or you believed in it, which we're not going to digress into religion here), let's say that entity knew that there were K total new cases, and that of those K cases, N cases were brand new infections within say a day or two, and M cases were old cases that were infected many days ago but just got discovered yesterday, thanks to better testing bandwidth. Obviously, M + N = K. So that god-like entity would know the ratio M:N, and would also know that only N/K percent of the new cases were actually brand new cases, and M/K percent were simply our discovery yesterday of a big chunk of the backlog of cases that already existed, and that we thought probably existed, but just hadn't yet been detected until yesterday.

So some all-knowing entity could know these things, at least in principle.

But we're mere mortals, and don't know these things at all. We know only K. We don't know the value of N. We don't know the value of M. Not only that, we can't possibly know the values of M and N! There is no convenient test for the K new cases that would answer the question, are you one of the N new cases, or one of the M old cases.

Well, I should modify that to say, that the statisticians could actually be collecting better data that more accurately classified new cases, but they don't - at least that is my impression. They could look at severity of symptoms at time of diagnosis and make an estimate of how many days ago each newly diagnosed patient had been infected, and then keep the new-cases tally in about 20 different buckets for 1 day ago, 2 days ago, 3 days ago, etc. But if they log this data, then they are not aggregatng it and reporting it to us. I think it more likely that they simply don't collect data at this fine a granularity.

If they don't collect this data, then they are just blazing idiots. We need this data to make sense of WTF the daily infections numbers mean. If they collect it but refuse to report it to us plebians, then they're merely covering up the truth. If they don't collect it at all, then someone somewhere is incompetent. In any event, we don't know M and N, so we can't answer the above important questions. We do know that K (the new case count) is an upperbound on N, the newly infected within the last day or so. K is also an upperbound on M, the number of delayed case discoveries that were actually infected some time ago.

The good news is that we're pretty sure that some large chunk of the K new cases fall in the M box. That has to be true since our testing bandwidth is getting better as we go along, so hopefully the M box will eventually comprise a bigger fraction of the K than the N box does, and as that happens (that is, as we are more and more efficient at detecting old existing infections - to the point of testing people even when they don't have severe symptoms), eventually the not-detected-yet lagging detections in the M box will decline, and if, at the same time, the brand new infections in the N box decline, then the total new case count K will (eventually, at that time) decline as well. Right now we are going blind as to what the M:N ratio is, so we can only hope that the K count will start to decline soon.

This whole discussion just made me realize something that's possibly true, and if so, bothers me very much. It might well be true that our CRC's chief data scientist might be as incompetent as the other goons in charge of this mess.

The other part of the good news is that, well, we knew all along that there was a whole bunch of lagging detections, so that the fact that we're discovering them now, only really means that we are proving what we knew all along. So by that argument, it's not really new bad news, strictly speaking, but rather confirmation of old bad news that we fully expected, but just did not have proof, just yet, at the time.

The final bad news comes from the part about not really knowing what the N bucket contains, neither for today, nor what the trend of the N curve will be in the immediate or farther future. The N curve is that we really want/need to know. Again, we can't know that because they are either not collecting the full data, or else suppressing that data from the public. I hope they're not suppressing data, cuz that would be almost (not quite) as bad as what Xi did.

The final bad news, in a nutshell, comes down to not being able to know how bad this thing really is, because idiots are (not?) collecting the proper data that a data scientist would obviously need to make a projection. I, as a data scientist, am lacking this proper data. Therefore I, like everybody else, is hobbled from computing good projections and posting it here.

Your tax dollars hard at work. Vote @CutDownTheNet for Chief Data Scientist in the next election cycle (LOL).
Here’s a thought I’ve had recently, curious your take.

Our current test is almost useless.
- a negative test tells almost nothing. It doesn’t tell someone if they’ve already had it and recovered. It doesn’t tell them if they can get it in the future. Possibly could’ve just missed it, one way or the other.
- it’s basically only useful for telling a very sick person if their sickness is covid19 or not.
- but at this point, most candidates for that, do have covid19, so that’s basically a waste, in a sense


I say we really need to focus some resources on getting the antibody test working. That would be far more helpful going forward.
 

Bad Gopher

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Graham opens his fool mouth and demonstrates his complete lack of understanding of how the unemployment insurance system works.
 

MplsGopher

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Normally I'd say incredible if true, but actually this might be expected considering the nature of the illness and some of the other rumblings that have been coming out of China.
What did it say? It had been deleted.
 

Bad Gopher

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What did it say? It had been deleted.
It claimed that 21 million cell phone accounts in China have been closed in the past few weeks, possibly indicating a huge death toll. Buyer beware of questionable info, but I don't think it's completely unbelievable.
 

MplsGopher

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It claimed that 21 million cell phone accounts in China have been closed in the past few weeks, possibly indicating a huge death toll. Buyer beware of questionable info, but I don't think it's completely unbelievable.
21M deaths would be around 2% CFR, if 100% of their population was infected.
 

MplsGopher

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The 3rd way is correct. With a caveat: we need an antibody test, then those who have recovered are exempt from all restraints and can return to the normal economy.
 

Bad Gopher

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A play in 3 acts:


ACT 1: Exposition


ACT 2: Confrontation



ACT 3: Resolution

I read through that playbook, and it was impressive. It was an easy-to-follow roadmap, and they simply ignored it. That's either straight-up malice or a refusal to even appear to adopt something that the black guy in the tan suit came up with.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Tryouts for the COVID-19 Cheer Team have concluded and the winners are:

BadGopher
JTF
MplsGopher
Cruze
Howie

Thanks to all that competed.

The COVID Doomsayers will continue their regular meetings here daily until the presidential election to provide a dire outlook and perfect hindsight.
 

MplsGopher

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KGF, none of us is cheering the virus or cheering for doom. That’s an absurd thing to accuse anyone of doing.
 

Cruze

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Trump Administration Job Vacancies and Inexperience Mar Federal Response to Coronavirus

Some 80 percent of the senior positions in the White House below the cabinet level have turned over during President Trump’s administration, with about 500 people having departed since the inauguration. Mr. Trump is on his fourth chief of staff, his fourth national security adviser and his fifth secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.

Between Mr. Trump’s history of firing people and the choice by many career officials and political appointees to leave, he now finds himself with a government riddled with vacancies, acting department chiefs and, in some cases, leaders whose professional backgrounds do not easily match up to the task of managing a pandemic.

Homeland Security

The Department of Homeland Security, the agency tasked with screening at airports and carrying out the travel restrictions that were Mr. Trump’s first major action to combat the coronavirus, is full of vacancies. Of the 75 senior positions listed on the department’s website, 20 are either vacant or filled by acting officials.

Mr. Wolf is the acting homeland security secretary, and Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II, a representative on the coronavirus task force, is the department’s acting deputy secretary. A federal judge also ruled that the process the Trump administration used to bring Mr. Cuccinelli to the department violated a federal vacancies law that stipulates open leadership positions must go to certain officials.

TSA and FEMA

The deputy administrators of the Transportation Security Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency also serve in acting capacities.

Veterans Affairs

At the Department of Veterans Affairs, workers are scrambling to order medical supplies on Amazon after its leaders, lacking experience in disaster responses, failed to prepare for the onslaught of patients at its medical centers.

The secretary, Robert L. Wilkie, has no experience in emergency management, and he has been largely absent from meetings with senior officials on the pandemic. He recently fired his second in command, who had worked in past disasters, and his head of emergency preparedness retired. Mr. Wilkie took a short leave of absence two weeks ago as the crisis began to unfold in the United States.


National Sercurity Council

One high-profile case came with eliminating a directorate at the White House’s National Security Council that was charged with pandemic preparations. In 2018, John R. Bolton, then Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, ousted Thomas P. Bossert, Mr. Trump’s homeland security adviser and longtime disaster expert. The directorate was folded into an office dedicated to weapons of mass destruction.

Food and Drug Administration

Equally notable may have been the resignation last year of Scott Gottlieb, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, who was an early advocate for broad coronavirus testing and stronger mitigation policies. He was succeeded by Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, a noted oncologist, who has struggled during Senate hearings to explain some of his positions.

The agency is largely viewed as slow in engaging the private sector to develop tests for the coronavirus. Many members of Mr. Gottlieb’s team departed with him, leaving the agency with many people new to their jobs.


National Park Service

Even National Park Service vacancies have taken a toll. The park service — which has its own police force — in recent days closed some parking lots near the Tidal Basin on the National Mall, where the cherry blossoms attract huge crowds each year, and urged people to stay away. Mayor Muriel Bowser stepped in and limited access to the area and sent police officers and members of the National Guard to enforce the shutdown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
 

Cruze

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KGF, none of us is cheering the virus or cheering for doom. That’s an absurd thing to accuse anyone of doing.
I don't know about KGF but I have a relatives who are worried about dying from the virus and friends whose businesses have been devastated by it.
 

KillerGopherFan

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I don't know about KGF but I have a relatives who are worried about dying from the virus and friends whose businesses have been devastated by it. .
Probably b/c you’re scaring the hell out of them.

The government is doing all it can to mitigate the spread of the virus and treat those infected. It’s people, individuals, that have the most control over whether this virus is spread and whether they protect themselves against getting exposed to it.

Stop reading those lefty websites that predict doom b/c Trump is President.
 

justthefacts

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Tryouts for the COVID-19 Cheer Team have concluded and the winners are:

BadGopher
JTF
MplsGopher
Cruze
Howie

Thanks to all that competed.

The COVID Doomsayers will continue their regular meetings here daily until the presidential election to provide a dire outlook and perfect hindsight.
Here's the thing. People have been saying this is serious for 6 weeks and you and the other Trumpkins have taken your cues from Dear Leader to downplay it. Downplaying it very dangerous.

We're trying to get through to you guys that expecting a quick resolution is silly and counterproductive.
 

LesBolstad

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Wow, we've been lied to by the Loony Left and media all along. These people don't care about you.

 

KillerGopherFan

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Here's the thing. People have been saying this is serious for 6 weeks and you and the other Trumpkins have taken your cues from Dear Leader to downplay it. Downplaying it very dangerous.

We're trying to get through to you guys that expecting a quick resolution is silly and counterproductive.
If by “downplaying it” you mean believing that forecasts of 500K US deaths are extreme, yeah, I have never believed that is going to happen even though I said it’s not impossible.

I’ve listened to Dr Fauci and Dr Birx in suggesting that dire models are very inaccurate and based on no mitigation strategies being implemented. I’ve listened to Fauci and Birx more than any other experts that have informed us. I think you’d be wise to too.
 

Bad Gopher

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KGF, none of us is cheering the virus or cheering for doom. That’s an absurd thing to accuse anyone of doing.
I agree. What a terrible, horrific take. I've already lost one dear friend to this thing, and I'm losing sleep with worry about who might be next--including me!

This is why KGF will never be taken seriously in this forum.
 

Cruze

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ICU doctor: Coronavirus frightens me. It's severe, unpredictable and it has no cure.

I’m an ICU doctor in Honolulu, and my wife is Hawaii's deputy state epidemiologist. She handles public health, and I handle the clinical medicine. Needless to say, she hasn’t had a day off in the past six weeks. But now, coronavirus has come to the intensive care unit.

This pandemic is like nothing else any of us has ever experienced. At the personal level, I must limit my use of masks to just one — for the whole day. Previously, I would have only used a mask for certain patients, and I would have changed it every time I went into a new patient room, out of an abundance of caution. Similarly, if I use a face shield, I need to wipe it down and reuse, as much as possible.

We are afraid of the disease itself, both for ourselves and for our loved ones. I have cared for hundreds of patients with respiratory failure like we see with COVID-19. If patients are conscious, they may feel like they're drowning, and we force them to breathe with the smallest amount of air possible. This nearly always means inducing a coma and sometimes using medication to chemically paralyze them. They require a breathing tube, which is painful and uncomfortable, and prevents them from being able to talk.

The virus continues to spread, and my wife is still working seven days a week. But now it’s my turn to be overwhelmed. I’m frightened, for my patients, my colleagues, my family and my own health, both mental and physical.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...ictable-no-cure-icu-doctor-column/5078810002/
 

KillerGopherFan

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I agree. What a terrible, horrific take. I've already lost one dear friend to this thing, and I'm losing sleep with worry about who might be next--including me!

This is why KGF will never be taken seriously in this forum.
You’re emotionally distraught b/c you believe all the dire predictions and lefty alarmists that are using this for political purposes.
You’re a victim of their political beliefs.

It’s much more likely that people will suffer from the economic fallout than have permanent effects from the virus itself.
 

MplsGopher

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If by “downplaying it” you mean believing that forecasts of 500K US deaths are extreme, yeah, I have never believed that is going to happen even though I said it’s not impossible.

I’ve listened to Dr Fauci and Dr Birx in suggesting that dire models are very inaccurate and based on no mitigation strategies being implemented. I’ve listened to Fauci and Birx more than any other experts that have informed us. I think you’d be wise to too.
How old are those predictions, though? Have they been updated since then?

I do t think it makes someone a bad person to have over-predicted. I also think it is wise to have “prepared and done too much” in hindsight, than not enough.

Looking at the FT curves and eyeballing it, it appears to me that Italy and Spain will end up somewhere between 10-20k deaths. If you then do the simplest possible thing, multiply by the population ratio, that would put the US somewhere around 50-100k deaths. We will see, and continue to hope for the best.
 
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