The new Corona virus, should we worry?

OldBob53

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What if the virus mutates to become even more deadly and contagious? China seems to have a major problem and with about 1.4 billion people, that's globally significant.
 

Deleted_User

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If you look at the number of infected, the number that die and the number who recover, the ratio of dead:recover is really low. Most people who catch the disease are still in the hospitals. So, yes, this is the worst disease imaginable. Long incubation period, long acute phase, high death rate. Some epidemiologists are claiming a 2.1 percent death rate. But, that number is uncertain since hardly anybody has recovered and are still in critical care. 30k cases and only 2000 recoveries. There have been false reports that the numbers have flattened out in new cases and then wait 15 minutes for the numbers to jump by several thousand. I think the ratio of recoveries to death is the most telling stat. 1 death to 3 recoveries. That makes most diseases look like rather friendly. This is not acting like SARS where it petered out and rapidly declined. This looks like a bio-weapon accidentally released.
 

MplsGopher

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722 dead of 34,546 infected, so yes a 2% death rate.

Not sure why anyone would invest billions into a “weapon” that only kills 2% of the people it affects.

This is just another case of open air meat markets in Asia providing the perfect breeding ground for a zoonotic virus to be born and mutate into something deadly for humans. Exactly as predicted in Contagion.
 

Deleted_User

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722 dead of 34,546 infected, so yes a 2% death rate.

Not sure why anyone would invest billions into a “weapon” that only kills 2% of the people it affects.

This is just another case of open air meat markets in Asia providing the perfect breeding ground for a zoonotic virus to be born and mutate into something deadly for humans. Exactly as predicted in Contagion.
The death rate is dead/cases. The reason that statistic is not valid is that 32,000 cases are not resolved and are ongoing. So, that number is likely to go up.

The Spanish flu had a similar rate. It is considered one of the greatest pandemics. If this casualty rate goes up, it will be the deadliest disease of its type.

As for zoonotic, that has been dismissed as to its origin. Keep up. Half of the original 32 cases never went to the market and never came into contact with people from the market. It is more likely that the source was not zoonotic, but someone who had the disease came into contact with the people in the marketplace at the peak of transmission.
 
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balds

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The same country that is reporting these numbers also has 60 million under quarantine. Seems extreme for the numbers presented. Something doesn't add up.
 

GoGophersUMN

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For people who are relatively healthy and have access to good medical care I don't see any reason to worry. It might not be fun but the risk is minimal.

For people with compromised immune systems it is a bit scarier. I don't think the symptoms are all that much worse than the flu but it has the potential to be worse than the flu because you can spread it before showing symptoms and there is no vaccine.

The death rate is hard to interpret for now. It is total cases/total deaths rather than cases with a known outcome (death or recovery)/total deaths so it is artificially low due to people who will end up dying counting in the total cases but not total deaths. At the same time such a high percentage of cases are in China and many of the deaths were before they were taking it seriously so outcomes should improve now that better care is given and the death rate should be lower in places with better medical care.

On top of the health risk this has the potential to hurt the economy significantly and limit the availability of a variety of products. Hopefully nothing necessary like medical supplies because a supply shortage could make the health risk even worse.
 

OldBob53

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"For people who are relatively healthy and have access to good medical care I don't see any reason to worry. It might not be fun but the risk is minimal." --

A 2% fatality rate (so far) is not my idea of minimal. And has been noted above, the death rate may increase because some people take longer to die than others.
 

MplsGopher

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Regardless, if it was an engineered weapon, they’d be going for a death rate at least Ebola. Not 2-4%.
 

Deleted_User

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Regardless, if it was an engineered weapon, they’d be going for a death rate at least Ebola. Not 2-4%.
Of course, if you want to simply destabilize a population and control them, then this type of bioweapon is perfect. Therefore, a virus like this makes perfect sense. If you were dedicated to having a secret bioweapons program, you want something that can achieve your political aim, not just as a terror weapon. Mass casualties does not have to be the aim of the weapon. A cause for a lockdown that will be self enforcing and policing, this makes for a perfect political bio weapon. Whatever you do, MplsGopher, don't run for President. Do us that favor.
 

Deleted_User

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4 days ago, Thailand had 1 case. Today, they have 32. This is the same exponential growth pattern that China experienced. In another week, whew, watch the numbers.
 

KD6-3.7

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Not sure why anyone would invest billions into a “weapon” that only kills 2% of the people it affects.
assuming that it was in its final stages of development.
 

howeda7

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Pneumonia is not fun and I wouldn't equate it to the flu.
 

Deleted_User

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Nurses in Wuhan are said to see 100 patients per day. Video shows people in Wuhan passing out in the streets with the disease. At least 100k people in Wuhan are said to be infected, far more than reports consolidated by "official" numbers. It is more contagious than Ebola by half.

Interesting fact about Wuhan. It is the location of the revolution of 1911 that overthrew the imperial regime. Prior to the lockdown, 5 million of its 11 million inhabitants had left the city. The disease went with them. Wuhan has some of the worst pollution on the planet. Life expectancy dropped by 5 years in the last decade. Over 200 Fortune 500 companies do business in Wuhan with subsidiaries. It is the deepest interior water port on the Yangtze river that conducts deep water, ocean going freight.

Wuhan is centrally located between Beijing and Hanoi and is west of Shanghai. It is a transportation hub of China. This has all the earmarks of a bioweapon event as far as where it would be deployed to the maximum extent. Plus, the disease progresses in 3 distinct phases over an 8 day acute phase. From near normal to lung and other tissue organ damage.

It is concerning that it has these later phases that are more intense than the initial phase. And, initial symptoms are so benign, in America, nobody would bother going to see a physician. By the time it reaches the acute phase, you are simply knocked on your ass, unexpectedly trying to breath with low O2 saturation. That is why there is lots of Chinese video of people just passing out in various places doing ordinary things.

Less than 10 percent of people have recovered who have been diagnosed since the beginning of these patients being patients under investigation. And, we are well into 6 weeks of the Chinese knowing about this disease. So, the numbers are not adding up very well. 24,000 official cases in Wuhan, and only a handful of recoveries. I would say that is an alarming statistic.
 

MplsGopher

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Of course, if you want to simply destabilize a population and control them, then this type of bioweapon is perfect. Therefore, a virus like this makes perfect sense. If you were dedicated to having a secret bioweapons program, you want something that can achieve your political aim, not just as a terror weapon. Mass casualties does not have to be the aim of the weapon. A cause for a lockdown that will be self enforcing and policing, this makes for a perfect political bio weapon. Whatever you do, MplsGopher, don't run for President. Do us that favor.
Not buying your idea.

But you certainly don’t have to worry about me running for any political office. LOL
 

MplsGopher

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Nurses in Wuhan are said to see 100 patients per day. Video shows people in Wuhan passing out in the streets with the disease. At least 100k people in Wuhan are said to be infected, far more than reports consolidated by "official" numbers. It is more contagious than Ebola by half.

Interesting fact about Wuhan. It is the location of the revolution of 1911 that overthrew the imperial regime. Prior to the lockdown, 5 million of its 11 million inhabitants had left the city. The disease went with them. Wuhan has some of the worst pollution on the planet. Life expectancy dropped by 5 years in the last decade. Over 200 Fortune 500 companies do business in Wuhan with subsidiaries. It is the deepest interior water port on the Yangtze river that conducts deep water, ocean going freight.

Wuhan is centrally located between Beijing and Hanoi and is west of Shanghai. It is a transportation hub of China. This has all the earmarks of a bioweapon event as far as where it would be deployed to the maximum extent. Plus, the disease progresses in 3 distinct phases over an 8 day acute phase. From near normal to lung and other tissue organ damage.

It is concerning that it has these later phases that are more intense than the initial phase. And, initial symptoms are so benign, in America, nobody would bother going to see a physician. By the time it reaches the acute phase, you are simply knocked on your ass, unexpectedly trying to breath with low O2 saturation. That is why there is lots of Chinese video of people just passing out in various places doing ordinary things.

Less than 10 percent of people have recovered who have been diagnosed since the beginning of these patients being patients under investigation. And, we are well into 6 weeks of the Chinese knowing about this disease. So, the numbers are not adding up very well. 24,000 official cases in Wuhan, and only a handful of recoveries. I would say that is an alarming statistic.
Not buying this. But also not saying it is impossible or even unreasonable.
 

bottlebass

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I agree with dean, the numbers don't add up. The death rate is over 2% but have had very few "recovered cases" reported so could easily climb. The exponential spread is concerning. China is not telling the truth and that only hurts efforts to contain.
 

OldBob53

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Its been reported in the news that China's tally of the infected and dead is likely erroneous, but a fraction of the real numbers.
 

bottlebass

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Its been reported in the news that China's tally of the infected and dead is likely erroneous, but a fraction of the real numbers.
China does have a history of lying about things like this.
 

Pompous Elitist

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There isn’t a lot of information out there but the virulence of the virus appears to be high. The public health response in mainland China is quite extraordinary. The numbers involved and apparent virulence are concerning.

Quarantine, personal protective measures seem to be critical to limiting spread but importantly hundreds to thousands of asymptomatic infected traveled around the world and time will tell if self-sustaining clusters spread in other countries eg the US. Do individual countries have the political will to tolerate the economic harm widespread travel lockdowns would involve?

If for example a health care worker caring for the infected does not have meticulous care with hygiene and becomes infected and is able to transmit the virus prior to symptoms developing it isn’t hard to imagine how spread is difficult to contain.

The mortality rate of 2-3% looks to be many times higher than seasonal influenza. It is conceivable as numbers of infected grow critical care resources diminish and life sustaining airway support, anti-inflammatory medications, secondary infection and sepsis control becomes very difficult. Mortality rates climb.

It isn’t quite time to panic but certainly exercise great care in obeying personal hygiene measures, support any local quarantine measures coming down the pike (if implemented). Buy time for vaccines. Which begs question of whether the prospect of dying of massive pulmonary edema or secondary sepsis prompts wack job anti vaxx folks to get in line...
 

OldBob53

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I'm old enough, easily, to remember a 1970s book called "The Population Bomb". It predicted that one of several threats to the human race are viruses.

Im not saying this is that, I doubt it is. Just an observation.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Not a population bomb, and the numbers are really unknown right now but certainly concerning enough 60 million people are in lockdown and international travel bans are in effect. Doubling time seems to be ~4 days (professor states 5) if the numbers of serious cases out there are anywhere close to accurate, IIRC 2k Jan 23rd to 40k tonight.

A nice synopsis from a guy that knows what he’s talking about

 

Blizzard

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Pretty crazy stuff. There's a lot of stuff out there so here's another one to worry about. The amount of our medical goods that are manufactured in China and the looming shortages here:

 
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