FiveThirtyEight Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign
Don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
Polling is an imperfect instrument, more so in some years than others. However, 2016 — while far from a banner year from the polls — was
not quite so bad as some critics assume. The
national polls were pretty good, and Trump’s wins in the swing states
were not that surprising based on the
close margins in those states beforehand. Meanwhile, 2018, with the midterms,
was one of the more accurate years for polling on record.
Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
This is
perhaps the single piece of advice we give most often at FiveThirtyEight, but it’s especially important in the final couple weeks of a campaign. After a lull this weekend, there are likely to be a
lot of polls the rest of the way out. On any given day, it will be possible to take the two or three best polls for Biden and tell a story of his holding or expanding his lead, or the two or three best polls for Trump and make a claim that the race is tightening.
Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
Indeed, while
the Comey letter really did matter in 2016, contributing to a 3-point shift toward Trump in the waning days of the campaign, it’s more the exception than the rule. On average, in elections since 1972,
2 national polling averages shifted by an average of 1.8 points and a median of just 1.4 points in the final 15 days of the race.
The final two weeks usually don’t change much
How much the national polling margin changed between 15 days before the presidential election and Election Day, since 1972
�
| Leader in FiveThirtyEight national polling average | | | | |
|---|
| Year | 15 days before ELECTION | | Election Day | | Change |
|---|
| 2016 | Clinton | +6.9 | Clinton | +3.8 | 3.1 |
| 2012 | Romney | +1.2 | Obama | +0.4 | 1.6 |
| 2008 | Obama | +6.8 | Obama | +7.1 | 0.3 |
| 2004 | Bush | +2.4 | Bush | +1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2000 | Bush | +2.7 | Bush | +3.5 | 0.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton | +14.9 | Clinton | +12.8 | 2.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton | +14.1 | Clinton | +7.1 | 7.0 |
| 1988 | Bush | +11.8 | Bush | +10.4 | 1.4 |
| 1984 | Reagan | +16.7 | Reagan | +18.0 | 1.3 |
| 1980 | Reagan | +2.3 | Reagan | +2.1 | 0.2 |
| 1976 | Carter | +2.0 | Carter | +0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1972 | Nixon | +25.5 | Nixon | +24.1 | 1.4 |
The averages listed are calculated retroactively based on FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology.
