The election IS TODAY and the polls say Biden is going to win in a landslide

fan of Ray Williams

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Thinking Trump needs a massive turn out of red on election day to overcome the early voting. Bad weather in a swing state on that day isn't going to help any.
 

howeda7

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I remain very skeptical that Biden can win Texas, but the turnout #'s there are massive so far.
 

Go4Broke

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Independent voters at the Texas event (a sample of them shown here), including those who said they lean to either party, support Joe Biden by roughly 53 percent to 28 percent.
 

Go4Broke

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FiveThirtyEight Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign

Don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”

Polling is an imperfect instrument, more so in some years than others. However, 2016 — while far from a banner year from the polls — was not quite so bad as some critics assume. The national polls were pretty good, and Trump’s wins in the swing states were not that surprising based on the close margins in those states beforehand. Meanwhile, 2018, with the midterms, was one of the more accurate years for polling on record.

Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.

This is perhaps the single piece of advice we give most often at FiveThirtyEight, but it’s especially important in the final couple weeks of a campaign. After a lull this weekend, there are likely to be a lot of polls the rest of the way out. On any given day, it will be possible to take the two or three best polls for Biden and tell a story of his holding or expanding his lead, or the two or three best polls for Trump and make a claim that the race is tightening.

Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.

Indeed, while the Comey letter really did matter in 2016, contributing to a 3-point shift toward Trump in the waning days of the campaign, it’s more the exception than the rule. On average, in elections since 1972,2 national polling averages shifted by an average of 1.8 points and a median of just 1.4 points in the final 15 days of the race.

The final two weeks usually don’t change much

How much the national polling margin changed between 15 days before the presidential election and Election Day, since 1972



Leader in FiveThirtyEight national polling average
Year15 days before ELECTIONElection DayChange
2016Clinton+6.9Clinton+3.83.1
2012Romney+1.2Obama+0.41.6
2008Obama+6.8Obama+7.10.3
2004Bush+2.4Bush+1.60.8
2000Bush+2.7Bush+3.50.8
1996Clinton+14.9Clinton+12.82.1
1992Clinton+14.1Clinton+7.17.0
1988Bush+11.8Bush+10.41.4
1984Reagan+16.7Reagan+18.01.3
1980Reagan+2.3Reagan+2.10.2
1976Carter+2.0Carter+0.81.2
1972Nixon+25.5Nixon+24.11.4

The averages listed are calculated retroactively based on FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology.
 
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cncmin

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Let's assume that these stats are accurate. Then why does Trump have such huge attendance at his rally's, and Biden's rally's are so poorly attended?
Why did Charles Manson's few followers murder people when the extensive fanbase of Charles Dickens didn't?
 

Bad Gopher

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Thread: red shift in red states. In essence, Biden is going to have to beat Trump by 5-6 percentage points in states with Republican secretaries of state in order to be even, at least based on 2016 and other recent elections. When you see a Republican candidate significantly outperforming exit polls, this is what's happening.
 

KillerGopherFan

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Thread: red shift in red states. In essence, Biden is going to have to beat Trump by 5-6 percentage points in states with Republican secretaries of state in order to be even, at least based on 2016 and other recent elections. When you see a Republican candidate significantly outperforming exit polls, this is what's happening.
The bogus excuses are starting early, huh.
 

MennoSota

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Thats it. I've notified the party. Re-education camp for you, pal.
Death Valley, here I come...

A little tidbit about Death Valley. Below the surface of Death Valley lies a huge aquifer of water.
 

Bad Gopher

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The bogus excuses are starting early, huh.
Did you read the thread? It's a simple matter of record. The numbers don't lie. This was THE difference in 2004, when results differed from exit polls in Ohio by margins never before seen in exit polling. Again, when you see that, you know there's something rotten in Denmark.
 

howeda7

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Did you read the thread? It's a simple matter of record. The numbers don't lie. This was THE difference in 2004, when results differed from exit polls in Ohio by margins never before seen in exit polling. Again, when you see that, you know there's something rotten in Denmark.
Hopefully people are not accepting provisional ballots and going on their way thinking all is well.
 

Bad Gopher

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Hopefully people are not accepting provisional ballots and going on their way thinking all is well.
Fortunately we're better at heading off voter roll purges than we were back then, but there are other ways to disenfranchise voters unfortunately.
 
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