The election IS TODAY and the polls say Biden is going to win in a landslide

Livingat45north

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A) golf is the one who brought up the pledge
B) Someone else said "under God," not Trump.
Are you going to answer my questions? Is the answer simply that you're only driven by emotions versus rational thought. Certainly your posts evince that attitude, such as your reply where you again focus on such minute details.
  • Are the policies that a politician supports completely immaterial to you, that you only worry about what any rational person would say are ridiculous items, such as trying to lip read what someone is saying during the pledge of allegiance?
  • Why do you ignore the big issues that will completely change the lives of Americans (e.g., stacking the supreme court) but focus on such ridiculously small and meaningless items, like was Melenia's lips moving during the pledge of allegiance and then concluding it was because she's an immigrant?
 

Livingat45north

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I have said this before but dems cant argue the merits so will argue a fringe point and attempt to draw an equivalence. In this case, of course trump didnt leave out thosr words intentionally and of course melania usually recites the pledge. However, in lieu of being able to argue the merits, dems will attempt to find something on the fringe that will distract from the truth. See this all the time with White House Press Corps as well.
Yes, very true. As we see over and over and over again, where the big issues, the ones that will impact our daily lives, are completely ignored. This focus on the fringe and irrelevant is void of rational thought. Plato, Aristotle, and so forth identified groups to which people have similar motivations, emotional-based being one of those groups, versus the analytical/rational motivation. It is a classic liberal approach, where the emotional-based response kicks in a short-term solution; versus the rational approach where that short-term solution causes long-term issues that exacerbates the very issue the short-term fix was trying to solve. Over and over again the libs address an issue emotionally with a short-term fix that makes the long-term situation much worse; whereas conservatives take the long-view that leads to long-term results.
 
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justthefacts

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Are you going to answer my questions? Is the answer simply that you're only driven by emotions versus rational thought. Certainly your posts evince that attitude, such as your reply where you again focus on such minute details.
  • Are the policies that a politician supports completely immaterial to you, that you only worry about what any rational person would say are ridiculous items, such as trying to lip read what someone is saying during the pledge of allegiance?
  • Why do you ignore the big issues that will completely change the lives of Americans (e.g., stacking the supreme court) but focus on such ridiculously small and meaningless items, like was Melenia's lips moving during the pledge of allegiance and then concluding it was because she's an immigrant?
Biden's policies are better than Trump's.

 
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cjbfbp

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Three Quinnipiac likely voter state polls dropped today and they are startling:

PA: Biden +13
FL: Biden +11
IA: Biden +5

The largest presidential margin this century in PA was slightly over 10 in 2008. The largest margin in Florida this century was 5 (2004).

Iowa went to Trump by 9.5% in 2016. Iowa does have a history of being a little more swingy from election to election than most states but a 14.5% swing would be pretty remarkable if anything close to that happens.
 
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justthefacts

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Three Quinnipiac likely voter state polls dropped today and they are startling:

PA: Biden +13
FL: Biden +11
IA: Biden +5

The largest presidential margin this century in PA was slightly over 10 in 2008. The largest margin in Florida this century was 5 (2004).

Iowa went to Trump by 9.5% in 2016. Iowa does have a history of being a little more swingy from election to election than most states but a 14.5% swing would be pretty remarkable if anything close to that happens.
Q polls of FL were wildly off in 2016. Beware.
 

howeda7

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I will stop and take a breath at times as well during the pledge and thus skip a few words. 100% that is what happened here.

My point was that dem convention would not have left out those words in the pledge or kneeled during the anthem during the obama years. Party has turned hard left.

Frankly, am a but surprised you are arguing this, thought you would be celebrating it?
Such fake outrage.
 

USAF

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Such fake outrage.
Dude...EVERYone "stops and takes a breath" and "skips a few words" during the long, arduous Pledge Of Allegiance.

I mean, its 31 words long, for God's sake.

Well, 29, under Trump. But still.
 

howeda7

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Dude...EVERYone "stops and takes a breath" and "skips a few words" during the long, arduous Pledge Of Allegiance.

I mean, its 31 words long, for God's sake.

Well, 29, under Trump. But still.
To be fair to Don, he doesn't know the words. Same reason he doesn't pretend to sing the Star Spangled Banner.
 

Go4Broke

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Cook Political Report - 2020 Electoral College Ratings

Democrats have 290 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column.

SOLID DEMOCRAT - 14 States (+ ME-01 & DC) 188 Electoral Votes

California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) Washington DC (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maine 1st CD (1) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT - 3 States 24 Electoral Votes

Colorado (9) Maine (2) Virginia (13)

LEAN DEMOCRAT - 7 States (+ NE-02) 78 Electoral Votes

Arizona (11) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nebraska 2nd CD (1) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10)



Republicans have 163 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 85 (100%) electoral votes from the Toss Up column plus 22 votes from the Lean Democrat column.

SOLID GOP - 13 States (+ NE-01 & NE-03) 77 Electoral Votes

Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (2) Nebraska 1st CD (1) Nebraska 3rd CD (1) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)


LIKELY GOP - 7 States 48 Electoral Votes

Alaska (3) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Missouri (10) Montana (3) South Carolina (9) Utah (6)

LEAN GOP - 1 States 38 Electoral Votes Texas (38)



TOSS-UP STATES - 5 States (+ ME-02) 85 Electoral Votes

Florida (29) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Maine 2nd CD (1) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18)


https://cookpolitical.com/
 

cjbfbp

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Cook Political Report - 2020 Electoral College Ratings

Democrats have 290 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column.

SOLID DEMOCRAT - 14 States (+ ME-01 & DC) 188 Electoral Votes

California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) Washington DC (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maine 1st CD (1) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT - 3 States 24 Electoral Votes

Colorado (9) Maine (2) Virginia (13)

LEAN DEMOCRAT - 7 States (+ NE-02) 78 Electoral Votes

Arizona (11) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nebraska 2nd CD (1) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10)



Republicans have 163 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 85 (100%) electoral votes from the Toss Up column plus 22 votes from the Lean Democrat column.

SOLID GOP - 13 States (+ NE-01 & NE-03) 77 Electoral Votes

Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (2) Nebraska 1st CD (1) Nebraska 3rd CD (1) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)


LIKELY GOP - 7 States 48 Electoral Votes

Alaska (3) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Missouri (10) Montana (3) South Carolina (9) Utah (6)

LEAN GOP - 1 States 38 Electoral Votes Texas (38)



TOSS-UP STATES - 5 States (+ ME-02) 85 Electoral Votes

Florida (29) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Maine 2nd CD (1) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18)


https://cookpolitical.com/
Good job of assembling this!
 

bga1

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Cook Political Report - 2020 Electoral College Ratings

Democrats have 290 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up column.

SOLID DEMOCRAT - 14 States (+ ME-01 & DC) 188 Electoral Votes

California (55) Connecticut (7) Delaware (3) Washington DC (3) Hawaii (4) Illinois (20) Maine 1st CD (1) Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11) New Jersey (14) New Mexico (5) New York (29) Oregon (7) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington (12)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT - 3 States 24 Electoral Votes

Colorado (9) Maine (2) Virginia (13)

LEAN DEMOCRAT - 7 States (+ NE-02) 78 Electoral Votes

Arizona (11) Michigan (16) Minnesota (10) Nebraska 2nd CD (1) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20) Wisconsin (10)



Republicans have 163 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need 85 (100%) electoral votes from the Toss Up column plus 22 votes from the Lean Democrat column.

SOLID GOP - 13 States (+ NE-01 & NE-03) 77 Electoral Votes

Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Idaho (4) Kentucky (8) Louisiana (8) Mississippi (6) Nebraska (2) Nebraska 1st CD (1) Nebraska 3rd CD (1) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)


LIKELY GOP - 7 States 48 Electoral Votes

Alaska (3) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Missouri (10) Montana (3) South Carolina (9) Utah (6)

LEAN GOP - 1 States 38 Electoral Votes Texas (38)



TOSS-UP STATES - 5 States (+ ME-02) 85 Electoral Votes

Florida (29) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Maine 2nd CD (1) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18)


https://cookpolitical.com/
Thanks for posting this.
On the hopeful side: I really don't see how Trump loses any of his 2016 support as people feel they are better off (see Gallup).
Trump looks solid in Arizona. I think he takes Wisconsin, and PA also. That puts the Harris ticket at 249. The unmentioned states, Florida, etc are all going Trump. If this happens we save the country and we are in for a great ride in the economy!

On the dark side: The polls are accurate, people are worn out from fighting with their neighbors and just want to lay down and let Trump get hammered so the left will stop screaming. In this case we will lose America as we know it- which is thrilling to the left.
 

Bad Gopher

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Nate and 538 are great Twitter follows, especially right now.
 

cjbfbp

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Note that the two 7 point swings mentioned were the two Bill Clinton elections. In both of those, there was a large percentage of 3rd party votes and, as I recall, the turnout in the 1996 election was pretty low.

If I had to pick which election of that series most resembles this one, I would go with 2004. There you had a controversial incumbent (although more popular than this one), a relatively low percentage of undecideds, and a low 3rd party vote. Notice that there was little "swing" from the poll estimates in that election.

We haven't had a double digit popular vote win since 1984 and I don't expect one this time either. My guess is Biden by 7 or 8 percent.
 

howeda7

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Biden's up > 10 nationally and > 6 in PA, MI and WI.
 

Go4Broke

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Morning Consult: National Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking

Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?" Each data point reflects a 3-day moving average among around 12,000 likely voters.




State-Level Presidential Head-to-Head Tracking

Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"





Senate Battleground State Tracking

Respondents are asked, "If the November 2020 U.S. Senate election were being held today, for whom would you vote?"


 
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Bad Gopher

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Trump's ploy of Superman-ing the virus and continuing to play it down seems like it's backfiring, especially among seniors. Reminds me of my best man at Perkins after the bachelor party, when he jumped up on the table and drank water out of his shoe. He thought it was going to be this big hit, but everyone was pretty much repulsed.

Besides, Biden is running a stellar TV ad campaign. He's got some crack creative people working for him...presaging his administration, I hope. #talentleansleft
 

Bad Gopher

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Trump's ploy of Superman-ing the virus and continuing to play it down seems like it's backfiring, especially among seniors. Reminds me of my best man at Perkins after the bachelor party, when he jumped up on the table and drank water out of his shoe. He thought it was going to be this big hit, but everyone was pretty much repulsed.

Besides, Biden is running a stellar TV ad campaign. He's got some crack creative people working for him...presaging his administration, I hope. #talentleansleft
To wit:
 

cjbfbp

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On the hopeful side: I really don't see how Trump loses any of his 2016 support as people feel they are better off (see Gallup).
Trump looks solid in Arizona. I think he takes Wisconsin, and PA also. That puts the Harris ticket at 249. The unmentioned states, Florida, etc are all going Trump. If this happens we save the country and we are in for a great ride in the economy!

On the dark side: The polls are accurate, people are worn out from fighting with their neighbors and just want to lay down and let Trump get hammered so the left will stop screaming. In this case we will lose America as we know it- which is thrilling to the left.
I'll skip the first sentence because I've already explained this contradiction to you but you refuse to listen. However, I will mention a couple of reasons that a large percentage of the population (at least in the upper 30% of the income range) might feel a little better about their lives these days:

1) higher savings rate: people are spending less right now and their bank accounts and investments likely are reflecting that;

2) less commuting: reduces those expenses and increases discretionary time that can be spent with family or in more enjoyable pursuits.

As for the rest of that paragraph: you have a very good chance about being wrong on ALL of those predictions as Biden currently is leading in all of those states and has been for some time. Generally, I don't like being wrong unless I'm wrong about a prediction that I didn't want to happen anyway but I guess the sheer frequency of being wrong has desensitized you.

As to the last paragraph, the most obvious explanation usually is the most likely: the majority doesn't want Trump anymore because they have had tremendous exposure to him, don't like what they have seen, and have had enough. What you have written appears to be the product of a fantasy prone personality.
 
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