The election IS TODAY and the polls say Biden is going to win in a landslide
- Thread starter Go4Broke
- Start date
It is odd that a state won by Trump 4 years ago now shows him 6 points down in this poll while new voter registrations have gone resoundingly in the Republican direction....
I guess it is that amazing Biden enthusiasm that the poll is reflecting...
Surge in new GOP voters puts pressure on Florida Democrats
By BOBBY CAINA CALVANOctober 3, 2020
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) —
Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in the crucial battleground of Florida for years, but have had little to show for it — walking away from the election box mostly empty-handed after failing to capitalize on their sizeable voter registration advantage.
Republicans have significantly cut into that lead in recent months, putting even more pressure on Democrats to turn out the vote in November — an uncertain proposition amid the coronavirus outbreak and for a political party that has long been on the losing side of razor-close, high-profile contests in the country’s largest swing state.
The Republican surge in new voter registrations is especially worrisome among Democrats hoping to thwart President Donald Trump’s bid for a second term and who bemoan their party’s inconsistent outreach to Hispanic voters and lackluster efforts to further expand its base.
“We’ve always had that registration advantage, and I think it’s definitely concerning what the Republicans have done,” said state Sen. Annette Taddeo. “I do believe that the Democrats really need to invest year after year on ground operations, and they just haven’t done that.”
A registration cushion is especially important for Democrats because of their lower propensity in casting ballots. Republicans continue to win, even if they have fewer voters, because they have been far more successful in turning out their ranks.
When Barack Obama won the state in 2008, he beat Republican Sen. John McCain by fewer than 205,000 votes in Florida — a far narrower gap than the nearly 700,000 voter-registration advantage Democrats had over Republicans at the time.
That advantage has dwindled over the years, as Republicans rebounded and the number of nonaffiliated voters rose from 2.1 million in 2008 to almost 3.7 million today.
Four years ago, when Trump prevailed over Hillary Clinton by a percentage point, Democrats had a 330,000 voter-registration advantage over Republicans. As of August, Republicans have cut that lead almost in half and could further narrow the gap before Monday’s voter registration deadline.
“Enthusiasm is at an all-time high for the president and his agenda,” said Susie Wiles, who is leading the charge for Trump in Florida, as she did four years ago.
“As the campaign goes door-to-door and talks to real people on the ground in Florida,” she said, “we find it easy to register people as Republicans in this state.”
Loading…
apnews.com
justthefacts
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 12,330
- Reaction score
- 2,748
- Points
- 113
I still am holding out hope in the american people. They will look at the left's attempts to rewrite history via the 1619 project, the communistic tendencies of the green new deal (guaranteeing living wage for everyone), the left's attempt to win the argument by rioting and looting, supporting immigration to the detriment of our working class, increasing taxes and regulation on business.
Then the american people will look at trump's economy, middle east, immgration policy, prison reform, military revitilization, challenging china.
The choice will be clear and the american people will come through. Unfortunately the public is given a much different message than the above. Amazing that Trump is still within striking distance and am still holding out hope that in the end the american people will see thru the subterfuge.
Then the american people will look at trump's economy, middle east, immgration policy, prison reform, military revitilization, challenging china.
The choice will be clear and the american people will come through. Unfortunately the public is given a much different message than the above. Amazing that Trump is still within striking distance and am still holding out hope that in the end the american people will see thru the subterfuge.
Livingat45north
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2013
- Messages
- 4,712
- Reaction score
- 1,594
- Points
- 113
Of course, you won't let your thinking it's an "outlier" keep you from doing multiple posts on how accurate it is...
Livingat45north
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2013
- Messages
- 4,712
- Reaction score
- 1,594
- Points
- 113
From the actual poll, 40% registered Repubs and 46% Democrats, but if Nate Cohn says it on Twitter, you know it's true, and of course you'll jump on it and at the same time ignore all the other recent polls on PA and jump to the one that shows the most negative result for Trump. That's quite the Howism you've got going again. Obviously, the pollersters don't know much about their own poll. I'm sure glad you're here to set them straight.
Of course they are because the message you crafted is hyperbolic fantasy and most voters accept a story that aligns closer to what they see from the president and the environment around them.
"You" is figurative, of course. You didn't actually craft the message because it's the same boilerplate GOP rhetoric that one could read variations of from a thousand Republican posters posting online as I write this. You all say the same things, like zombies. That's why it's easy to handle most of you in online discussions. One rarely has to address any unique points or do any research about the details of any claims.
Livingat45north
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2013
- Messages
- 4,712
- Reaction score
- 1,594
- Points
- 113
You only get one chance to vote for Socialism, after that happens, there's no going back. Ask Venezuela how that turned out for them.
short ornery norwegian
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 9, 2011
- Messages
- 10,013
- Reaction score
- 1,601
- Points
- 113
for the 1,378th time.
The Presidential Race is NOT a national race.
it is 50 separate State Elections.
National polls mean nothing.
the total national popular vote means nothing.
from 1888 to 2000, no candidate won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college.
But it has happened twice in the last 5 presidential elections - 2000 and 2016.
I will believe that Biden is the winner when he is sworn in. anything short of that is speculation. (and I am planning to vote for Biden.)
The Presidential Race is NOT a national race.
it is 50 separate State Elections.
National polls mean nothing.
the total national popular vote means nothing.
from 1888 to 2000, no candidate won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college.
But it has happened twice in the last 5 presidential elections - 2000 and 2016.
I will believe that Biden is the winner when he is sworn in. anything short of that is speculation. (and I am planning to vote for Biden.)
justthefacts
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 12,330
- Reaction score
- 2,748
- Points
- 113
TruthSeeker
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 8, 2014
- Messages
- 4,705
- Reaction score
- 1,106
- Points
- 113
45 is a dummy.
Top Battlegrounds: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona
| Top Battlegrounds | 10/6 | 49.0 | 44.8 | Biden +4.2 |
| Florida | October 6th | 47.9 | 45.6 | Biden +2.3 |
| Pennsylvania | October 6th | 50.8 | 44.2 | Biden +6.6 |
| Michigan | October 6th | 48.6 | 42.8 | Biden +5.8 |
| Wisconsin | October 6th | 50.2 | 44.2 | Biden +6.0 |
| North Carolina | October 6th | 48.0 | 46.8 | Biden +1.2 |
| Arizona | October 6th | 48.6 | 45.2 | Biden +3.4 |
RCP National Average | Top Battlegrounds vs. 2016 Top Battlegrounds
justthefacts
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 12,330
- Reaction score
- 2,748
- Points
- 113
I'd also point out that the list of battlegrounds is larger this year:
Also Biden has a bigger RCP lead in AZ than Trump has in TX:
The election is 50 state elections, but the national polls tend to reflect the middle of the 50 states' preferences, and so when the national polls move, the state polls tend to move along with them.
That is not true. States aren't independent in political habits. A rising tide lifts all boats and a receding one lowers them. Even a senatorial or congressional race in a single state isn't independent of national sentiment.
Trump won't pull off what he did last time if he loses the national popular vote by 6% or more. According to the analysis by 538, Democrats are more likely than not to win if the popular vote margin exceeds 3%. If Trump loses the national popular vote by 7% instead of 2.1%, you will see that erosion of support reflected in almost every state.
In 1992, I did as simple of a political analysis as I possibly could on a rudimentary spreadsheet. I asked what would happen if 5% of the two-party vote flipped nationally from 1988 to 1992 and that was reflected evenly in every state (of course, it wouldn't work that way in every state). That simple analysis failed to pick the correct winner in only two states and they were in opposite directions. The method picked Clinton to win in Mississippi and Bush to win in New Hampshire. The reverse happened.
Last edited:
Livingat45north
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2013
- Messages
- 4,712
- Reaction score
- 1,594
- Points
- 113
Inspite of all these fake polls designed to influence versus inform, Trump is still doing better in the battleground states this election than what was happening in the MSM's attempt to get Hillary elected back in 2016. This has got to have the lib's heads exploding (e.g., what's happening on this board). They've created fake stories about Trump, that the minions believe hook-line-and-sinker, shut down the country to try to stop Trump's economy from continuing to soar, impeached him over a fake hoax, and now all these fake polls, and Trump is still outdoing what was happening in 2016.
Gopher_In_NYC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2010
- Messages
- 1,091
- Reaction score
- 758
- Points
- 113
WOW - Thanks for educating me Jack Webb, I didn't know that until now!!!
I thought you would have been bright enough to ascertain from my posts that I am a -
Whilst this post of yours indicates you might be either condensing know-it-all or this guy (I don't 100% yet and won't spend anymore time trying to suss it out) -
Gopher_In_NYC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2010
- Messages
- 1,091
- Reaction score
- 758
- Points
- 113
The sane ones will, sorry if you don't fall into that bucket RGB!!!
Gopher_In_NYC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2010
- Messages
- 1,091
- Reaction score
- 758
- Points
- 113
Last edited:
Gopher_In_NYC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2010
- Messages
- 1,091
- Reaction score
- 758
- Points
- 113
Livingat45north
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2013
- Messages
- 4,712
- Reaction score
- 1,594
- Points
- 113
It's what they published in their poll, I think it was like on page 9 or such (going from memory on that).
justthefacts
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 12,330
- Reaction score
- 2,748
- Points
- 113
A) That average only has limited value. If, for example, Biden led by 15 in MI, WI, PA, and AZ, but trailed by 30 in FL and NC, he would still have a massive favorite to win the Presidency. As it stands, he leads by 5.8, 5.6, 6.5, and 3.4 in those states respectively.
B) That average ignores other battleground states, as I have noted here repeatedly. According to RCP Biden leads in GA and IA, and is closer in TX than Trump is in AZ.
They don't mean "nothing." State polls mean more, but they are both informative, especially when assessing states that don't have a lot of polls.
If Biden wins the popular vote by 7-10 points, he is going to win the Electoral College by a lot. The EC has a built in R advantage that makes it possible for them to win the EC while losing the popular vote by up to ~3%. But there is still a correlation between them. If Biden's national lead would get down to 3%, it would be time to worry.
justthefacts
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 20, 2010
- Messages
- 12,330
- Reaction score
- 2,748
- Points
- 113
A "standard polling error" is about 3%. Trump needs the polls to be off two standard polling errors in MI, WI and PA and a bit more than one in FL and AZ. At least 4 of these 5 have to come true. Possible? OK. Likely? About as likely as the Vikings making the play-offs at this moment and that's being generous.
I don't want Wisconsin to be the tipping point state. You can't trust those b$%%^ards