The election IS TODAY and the polls say Biden is going to win in a landslide

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
47,730
Reaction score
5,421
Points
113
We're going to end up with Biden and a 50/50 Senate. Nothing radical will pass through that chamber. But the Fellas will still be terrified of the impending "Socialist Agenda."
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
2,970
Reaction score
1,196
Points
113
Losers are losers and will always be losers. This is how losers think. Zero accountability, it can't be because of any of my own failings
Yes Trump always takes responsibility. ROTFLMAO you are supporting the absolute king of blaming anyone but himself. Wow, just wow
 

cjbfbp

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
1,650
Points
113
Why on earth did we have the civil war? Should have let them leave.
I've wondered about that more than a few times this century. When Bill Clinton was in office, we could carry more of those states but it's been tough going since (although Virginia did swing over to our side after Clinton - very grateful for that!).
 

LakevilleBro

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Messages
880
Reaction score
591
Points
93
It's ok Bro. You'll survive when Trump is gone. We'll all be better off.
I think Trump will win by at least the margin he won by in 2016. In 2016, he had no political experience and now he has a track record (whether you like it or not). I would vote for Hillary, before I would ever vote for Biden.
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
2,970
Reaction score
1,196
Points
113
I think Trump will win by at least the margin he won by in 2016. In 2016, he had no political experience and now he has a track record (whether you like it or not). I would vote for Hillary, before I would ever vote for Biden.
That's a take that literally no one puts forward. Its possible but I would say extremely unlikely. Biden is just not viewed as negatively as Hillary, right or wrong that seems to be a fact. Joe is center left status quo(pre Trump) president, basically boring Joe which is just what many/most people want. Not that I agree per say but thats how it appears.

I considered voting for Trump in 2016 and was mostly ambivalent about who won, now all I care about is that Trump loses.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
47,730
Reaction score
5,421
Points
113
That's a take that literally no one puts forward. Its possible but I would say extremely unlikely. Biden is just not viewed as negatively as Hillary, right or wrong that seems to be a fact. Joe is center left status quo(pre Trump) president, basically boring Joe which is just what many/most people want. Not that I agree per say but thats how it appears.

I considered voting for Trump in 2016 and was mostly ambivalent about who won, now all I care about is that Trump loses.
The only two states he even has a shot at winning that he lost in 2016 are MN and NH and he's behind by 10 points in both. And he will almost certainly lose a couple states even in his best case scenario. The idea that he's going to do "better" than 2016 is pretty nuts.
 

cjbfbp

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
1,650
Points
113
The only two states he even has a shot at winning that he lost in 2016 are MN and NH and he's behind by 10 points in both. And he will almost certainly lose a couple states even in his best case scenario. The idea that he's going to do "better" than 2016 is pretty nuts.
I think there is a fair chance that Trump may do about as well in 2020 as he did in 2016 (46.1% of the popular vote). The problem for him is that the Democratic candidate is likely to do better in 2020 than in 2016 (48.2% of the popular vote).

Right now the RCP average is 49.4% Biden and 42.9% Trump; that's probably as good of an estimate to use as any other right now. That combines to 92.3% of the vote with 7.7% remaining. If we assume 3% for 3rd parties, 4.7% remains. If we're generous to Trump and give him 3% of that and Biden 1.7%, Trump finishes at 45.9% and Biden at 51.1%. That's a 5.2% margin for Biden. If Trump can pull out an electoral victory despite that deficit, then we really have to wonder what the hell happened with the voting. The biggest popular vote deficit in history by an electoral winner was 3% in the Hayes v. Tilden election of 1876.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
47,730
Reaction score
5,421
Points
113
I think there is a fair chance that Trump may do about as well in 2020 as he did in 2016 (46.1% of the popular vote). The problem for him is that the Democratic candidate is likely to do better in 2020 than in 2016 (48.2% of the popular vote).

Right now the RCP average is 49.4% Biden and 42.9% Trump; that's probably as good of an estimate to use as any other right now. That combines to 92.3% of the vote with 7.7% remaining. If we assume 3% for 3rd parties, 4.7% remains. If we're generous to Trump and give him 3% of that and Biden 1.7%, Trump finishes at 45.9% and Biden at 51.1%. That's a 5.2% margin for Biden. If Trump can pull out an electoral victory despite that deficit, then we really have to wonder what the hell happened with the voting. The biggest popular vote deficit in history by an electoral winner was 3% in the Hayes v. Tilden election of 1876.
Vlad erasing every 10th vote in certain precincts can work wonders.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

Over Macho Grande?
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,898
Reaction score
1,545
Points
113
The problem for him is that the Democratic candidate is likely to do better in 2020 than in 2016
HA!!! A truly inspirational candidate Grandpa Joe is, no doubt about it.

Oh wait!!! That's right!!! Millions and millions of voters, even ones that didn't vote for ol' Hill, are going to storm their way to the polls simply because of their dislike for the OTHER candidate. Forget that this is a proven failing strategy.
 

cjbfbp

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
1,650
Points
113
Millions and millions of voters, even ones that didn't vote for ol' Hill, are going to storm their way to the polls simply because of their dislike for the OTHER candidate. Forget that this is a proven failing strategy.
I don't know how many more, but more voters will vote against Trump this time than 2016. Relying on hatred of the other candidate may not be a successful strategy in a normal election but very well could work for the very rare incumbent who is despised as much as Trump.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

Over Macho Grande?
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,898
Reaction score
1,545
Points
113
I don't know how many more, but more voters will vote against Trump this time than 2016. Relying on hatred of the other candidate may not be a successful strategy in a normal election but very well could work for the very rare incumbent who is despised as much as Trump.
Right, right, right... you keep saying that. And for sure, all those people, especially the women who clamored historically to get on board to vote for what would have been the first female POTUS in our nation's history are of course going to show up for the guy who can't speak coherently and likes to grope women, sniff hair, and has been making racist and segregationist comments for over 40 years in public service.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
47,730
Reaction score
5,421
Points
113
I don't know how many more, but more voters will vote against Trump this time than 2016. Relying on hatred of the other candidate may not be a successful strategy in a normal election but very well could work for the very rare incumbent who is despised as much as Trump.
It also underestimates how unpopular Hillary was. Ogee seems to think that millions of women only turned out because there was a woman on the ballot and will now stay home. There's zero evidence of this.
 

Bad Gopher

A Loner, A Rebel
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
18,869
Reaction score
2,863
Points
113
That's a take that literally no one puts forward. Its possible but I would say extremely unlikely. Biden is just not viewed as negatively as Hillary, right or wrong that seems to be a fact. Joe is center left status quo(pre Trump) president, basically boring Joe which is just what many/most people want. Not that I agree per say but thats how it appears.

I considered voting for Trump in 2016 and was mostly ambivalent about who won, now all I care about is that Trump loses.
It's not a take so much as it's a hope or a fantasy. Like when Paul Allen makes a pretend play-by-play call describing a play he fantasizes will occur in the upcoming game. It's pathetic.
 

John Galt

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
9,759
Reaction score
970
Points
113
We're going to end up with Biden and a 50/50 Senate. Nothing radical will pass through that chamber. But the Fellas will still be terrified of the impending "Socialist Agenda."
Kind of like how you’re terrified of standing up to China?
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
2,970
Reaction score
1,196
Points
113
Kind of like how you’re terrified of standing up to China?
Why isn't Trump hitting the companies who buy all their products from China, if the trade deficit is so terrible he should take on these traitors....right?

I want to stand up to China to but not for most of the reasons Trump cites. For Hong Kong, human rights and their foreign influence. I support doing it economically in many of the ways Trump is, but his stated goals are mostly nonsense.
 

John Galt

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
9,759
Reaction score
970
Points
113
Why isn't Trump hitting the companies who buy all their products from China, if the trade deficit is so terrible he should take on these traitors....right?

I want to stand up to China to but not for most of the reasons Trump cites. For Hong Kong, human rights and their foreign influence.
I’m not overly concerned with the trade deficit. I don’t really like doing business with communists who insist on stealing American intellectual property in order to do business with them.

Could Trump do more against China? Yes. Has he taken more actions against them than any other president? Absolutely. If Biden wins, China also wins.
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
2,970
Reaction score
1,196
Points
113
I’m not overly concerned with the trade deficit. I don’t really like doing business with communists who insist on stealing American intellectual property in order to do business with them.

Could Trump do more against China? Yes. Has he taken more actions against them than any other president? Absolutely. If Biden wins, China also wins.
I agree.
 

Donovan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
3,844
Reaction score
526
Points
113
That's a take that literally no one puts forward. Its possible but I would say extremely unlikely. Biden is just not viewed as negatively as Hillary, right or wrong that seems to be a fact. Joe is center left status quo(pre Trump) president, basically boring Joe which is just what many/most people want. Not that I agree per say but thats how it appears.

I considered voting for Trump in 2016 and was mostly ambivalent about who won, now all I care about is that Trump loses.
Disagree, quite a few of us are predicting this. I agree that Biden is more likable than Hillary, but I also think many have come to the conclusion Biden is less competent than Hillary. If Biden does well in the debates, that would temper my expectations a bit. However, the main thing keeping Trump from winning is Trump himself.
 

John Galt

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
9,759
Reaction score
970
Points
113
Disagree, quite a few of us are predicting this. I agree that Biden is more likable than Hillary, but I also think many have come to the conclusion Biden is less competent than Hillary. If Biden does well in the debates, that would temper my expectations a bit. However, the main thing keeping Trump from winning is Trump himself.
Trump has met the enemy, and he is him.
 

justthefacts

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2010
Messages
12,352
Reaction score
2,775
Points
113
Fox was off by 1.9 points in 2016. They missed by 1.5 points in 2018 in favor of Republicans

 

cjbfbp

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
1,650
Points
113
However, the main thing keeping Trump from winning is Trump himself.
So, your point is: "We'd be winning if we had a good candidate."

I suppose that partisans of trailing candidates say that in every election and it's probably true to some degree in every case.

I agree that Trump is a bad candidate. He had a unique sort of badness that enough people found refreshing and entertaining in 2016 and, having no record (and bolstered by constant bluffing), people could view him purely from the lens of potential. Now he has an actual record, his unfitness for the office is worse than all but the most paranoid imagined, and his unique sort of badness is now as stale as month-old moldy bread.
 

cjbfbp

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
1,650
Points
113
I agree that Biden is more likable than Hillary, but I also think many have come to the conclusion Biden is less competent than Hillary.
And that might be a problem if he were running against Hillary.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

Over Macho Grande?
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
9,898
Reaction score
1,545
Points
113
Now he has an actual record
He most certainly does, and the record of what he's accomplished while in office is infinitely more than I could have ever hoped for. Astonishing really. Off the charts what the guy has accomplished considering the opposition he's faced since he's been in office.

Sorry, once again, I'm a results-based guy; what have you DONE. And quite honestly, what he's accomplished in the last 3.5 years means that I'll be voting for Trump much more enthusiastically than I did the first time. 2016, I voted for him because he wasn't Hill and he wasn't going to continue leading us down the shitpath that Barry had us going on. But in 2020? I will very VERY gladly be voting for Trump because of what the guy has accomplished.
 

Wally

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 15, 2016
Messages
2,970
Reaction score
1,196
Points
113
He most certainly does, and the record of what he's accomplished while in office is infinitely more than I could have ever hoped for. Astonishing really. Off the charts what the guy has accomplished considering the opposition he's faced since he's been in office.

Sorry, once again, I'm a results-based guy; what have you DONE. And quite honestly, what he's accomplished in the last 3.5 years means that I'll be voting for Trump much more enthusiastically than I did the first time. 2016, I voted for him because he wasn't Hill and he wasn't going to continue leading us down the shitpath that Barry had us going on. But in 2020? I will very VERY gladly be voting for Trump because of what the guy has accomplished.
So what has Trump said he will do on the next 4 your excited about? More debt? Higher deficit? Keeping out the brownies?
What?
 

Bad Gopher

A Loner, A Rebel
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
18,869
Reaction score
2,863
Points
113
He most certainly does, and the record of what he's accomplished while in office is infinitely more than I could have ever hoped for. Astonishing really. Off the charts what the guy has accomplished considering the opposition he's faced since he's been in office.

Sorry, once again, I'm a results-based guy; what have you DONE. And quite honestly, what he's accomplished in the last 3.5 years means that I'll be voting for Trump much more enthusiastically than I did the first time. 2016, I voted for him because he wasn't Hill and he wasn't going to continue leading us down the shitpath that Barry had us going on. But in 2020? I will very VERY gladly be voting for Trump because of what the guy has accomplished.
You've posted this many times, but I don't remember seeing a detailed list of specific accomplishments. Indulge me, and again, be specific with a reasonable amount of detail.

For me, the most notable accomplishment that exceeded all expectations is the detention of migrants seeking asylum, the separation of those children from their families, the widespread sexusl abuse of those children and their disappearances, including and especially selling them into either sexual slavery or illegal adoptions, depending on their age, while their mothers are subjected to systematic sterilization. I did not have that on my Trump BINGO card in 2017, but thank the Lord for sending him to be our leader.
 
Top Bottom