The election IS TODAY and the polls say Biden is going to win in a landslide

[Go4Broke]

Go ahead right wingers. Hang your hat on the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 when Trump ran and lost the popular vote by 3 million against the worst Democratic candidate in decades. If it's the only thing that will help get you out of bed in the morning between now and November, have at it.


Biden could win in a landslide

A half dozen new swing-state polls released Thursday mMiorning suggest that not only would President Donald Trump lose if the election were held today, he would lose in a landslide. The surveys, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, show Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by double digits in Michigan (Biden +11), Wisconsin (Biden +11) and Pennsylvania (Biden+ 10) and by mid-single digits in North Carolina (Biden +9), Arizona (Biden +7) and Florida (Biden +6).

Trump won every one of those states in the 2016 election. Switch them from red to blue and you can quickly see just how bad hings look for Trump at the moment. Give Biden those six states -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida -- and keep the rest of the 2020 map just as it was in 2016, and the Democratic nominee has 333 electoral votes to just 205 for Trump. That would be a larger Electoral College margin than President Barack Obama won with in his 2012 reelection.

But even that doesn't capture how dark things could get for Trump. A Quinnipiac University poll in Ohio released Wednesday showed Biden at 46% to Trump's 45%. (A Fox News poll released in early June showed Biden at 47% to Trump's 45%). If Ohio went to Biden, he would be at 351 electoral votes.



Read complete article at: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/donald-trump-swing-state-polls-new-york-times-siena/index.html

 

[justthefacts]

Long way to go, but Biden could win zero of these states and still have a realistic chance to win. Anyone who says vote by mail is proof of Democrats' desperation is in denial

 

[howeda7]

Long way to go, but Biden could win zero of these states and still have a realistic chance to win. Anyone who says vote by mail is proof of Democrats' desperation is in denial

The Florida #'s alone are basically crushing for Trump. He's currently down 6+ in RCP. If he loses Florida he pretty much can't win. He would have to run the table of PA, MI, WI, AZ and that's not happening.

Time for DeSantis stop fudging the Covid #'s and get to some vote suppressin' stat!

 

[cjbfbp]

Go ahead right wingers. Hang your hat on the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 when Trump ran and lost the popular vote by 3 million against the worst Democratic candidate in decades. If it's the only thing that will get you out of bed in the morning between now and November, have at it.


Biden could win in a landslide

A half dozen new swing-state polls released Thursday mMiorning suggest that not only would President Donald Trump lose if the election were held today, he would lose in a landslide. The surveys, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, show Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by double digits in Michigan (Biden +11), Wisconsin (Biden +11) and Pennsylvania (Biden+ 10) and by mid-single digits in North Carolina (Biden +9), Arizona (Biden +7) and Florida (Biden +6).

Trump won every one of those states in the 2016 election. Switch them from red to blue and you can quickly see just how bad hings look for Trump at the moment. Give Biden those six states -- Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida -- and keep the rest of the 2020 map just as it was in 2016, and the Democratic nominee has 333 electoral votes to just 205 for Trump. That would be a larger Electoral College margin than President Barack Obama won with in his 2012 reelection.

But even that doesn't capture how dark things could get for Trump. A Quinnipiac University poll in Ohio released Wednesday showed Biden at 46% to Trump's 45%. (A Fox News poll released in early June showed Biden at 47% to Trump's 45%). If Ohio went to Biden, he would be at 351 electoral votes.

View attachment 8524

Read complete article at: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/25/politics/donald-trump-swing-state-polls-new-york-times-siena/index.html

What's really remarkable about that graph of swing and "too close to call" states is the striking consistency in the differences between the poll averages for each state and the calculated state "lean." Of course, there appears to be a strong recency effect in that calculated lean. For example, Iowa may have been about 9 points more Republican than the national average in 2016 but, since 1988, Iowa has only voted twice for a Republican president.

Excluding the United States number (which is very similar anyway), the average difference between the polling average and calculated lean is 9.45 and the median is 9.5; virtually no difference between the two. All of the states except Texas and New Hampshire have a calculated difference between 9.4 and 9.6.

So, we can say that Donald Trump by this analysis has managed to turn the country about 9.5 points more Democratic than it was before. That's a remarkable achievement.

I expect to see some narrowing in the coming months but not that much and likely not enough to put Biden in the danger zone.

 

[cjbfbp]

Go ahead right wingers. Hang your hat on the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 when Trump ran and lost the popular vote by 3 million against the worst Democratic candidate in decades.

Notice they are completely absent on this thread just like they are on almost every thread that highlights measures of Trump's current standing. Once in awhile, CRG will post some nonsense on one of these but that's about it. The right wingers don't want to touch these threads. They're much more comfortable retreating to their safe spaces of highlighting some outrage of current liberal society.

 

[Bad Gopher]

The bottom line is that this is still a "are you better off than four years ago" proposition, and the answer to that is clear. This notion that voters are going to avoid Joe Biden because there's been rioting in some cities is silly wishful thinking.

There were enough people in 2016 that were willing to take a flyer on an outsider candidate who could sort of claim to be a successful businessman that it put Trump over the top. There's now an overwhelming amount of buyers remorse, too much for him to overcome, especially in light of the botched virus response. Unless you're a hardcore or a cult member, you have eyes to see.

And he's going to take the Republican cause down with him by association. The R's got temporary benefit from aligning with him and his bugs that crawled out from under all the logs he turned over, but it was only a sugar high. They're going to ultimately regret hitching their wagon to him. Heck, it's always occurred to me that he could very well be a secret agent of the Democratic Party sent to destroy the Republican Party.

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

Coin toss still.

The DNC is so happy, because they easily fought off progressive candidates.

Now Biden is their man, but they really dont care who wins now. Biden will just do what hes told until he dies, or if Trump wins, they get to put up another 4 years of resistance, but still have the DNC's economic values still in place. Win win now that Sanders is out.

They dont want Trump to win, obviously, but they are okay with it. Trump, to the DNC, is better than a true progressive.

 

[cjbfbp]

There were enough people in 2016 that were willing to take a flyer on an outsider candidate who could sort of claim to be a successful businessman that it put Trump over the top.

Exactly. Michael Moore predicted that Trump would win about 6 months before the election (although he softened that stance shortly before the election). One of the reasons he gave was the "Jesse Ventura" effect which is similar to what you've described. Trump's win, like Ventura's, came during good economic conditions and lack of any major disruptive and polarizing event (like war). Voters seem more willing to roll the dice during good times than bad ones.

 

[Section2]

Not surprised. Watch the Tucker Carlson opening from last night.

 

[cjbfbp]

Coin toss still.

As Paul Krugman frequently quips "Reality has a well known liberal bias." I can understand how you're not comfortable with reality right now.

 

[Bad Gopher]

IALTO

 

[bga1]

Congrats to the leftists on a big Biden win! Can't wait for the inauguration and the unveiling of the new flag that we can all be more proud of. It's about time that we turn away from this despicable nation and become a kinder, socialistic nation that focuses on racial and gender identity first and foremost! Finally we follow the successful socialistic egalitarian model! Prosperity for all! Equality of result! Defund the police for heavens sake. More social workers! Open borders and print all road signs in 6 languages. Don't forget Farsi!

 

[RememberMurray]

The rally in Tulsa, with its sparse turnout and yawning attendees, is especially worrisome.

Obviously, the same old applause lines have now grown stale.

It occurs to me that Trump's 2016 campaign messaging, based on anger and resentment directed at the status quo, is wholly ineffective in 2020 — because Trump is the status quo now, and has been for 3+ years.

He has to run on his record. No way to spin it.

 

[howeda7]

Coin toss still.

The DNC is so happy, because they easily fought off progressive candidates.

Now Biden is their man, but they really dont care who wins now. Biden will just do what hes told until he dies, or if Trump wins, they get to put up another 4 years of resistance, but still have the DNC's economic values still in place. Win win now that Sanders is out.

They dont want Trump to win, obviously, but they are okay with it. Trump, to the DNC, is better than a true progressive.

You're down 21 in the 2nd quarter. The game's not over, but it's not a coin toss.

 

[howeda7]

The rally in Tulsa, with it's sparse turnout and yawning attendees, is especially worrisome.

Obviously, the punchlines have grown stale.

It occurs to me that Trump's 2016 campaign messaging, based on anger and resentment directed at the status quo, is wholly ineffective in 2020 — because Trump is the status quo now, and has been for 3+ years.

He has to run on his record. No way to spin it.

The only thing he can really attack Biden on is being old or some variation of that. Hard to do when you just spent 20 minutes proudly proving you can walk and drink water.

 

[Section2]

As Paul Krugman frequently quips "Reality has a well known liberal bias." I can understand how you're not comfortable with reality right now.

paul krugman is a hack

 

[cjbfbp]

Congrats to the leftists on a big Biden win! Can't wait for the inauguration and the unveiling of the new flag that we can all be more proud of. It's about time that we turn away from this despicable nation and become a kinder, socialistic nation that focuses on racial and gender identity first and foremost! Finally we follow the successful socialistic egalitarian model! Prosperity for all! Equality of result! Defund the police for heavens sake. More social workers! Open borders and print all road signs in 6 languages. Don't forget Farsi!

As customary for those of your type, you retreat into abstractions like "socialism" and various other fantasies in the face of an adverse reality.

 

[howeda7]

Congrats to the leftists on a big Biden win! Can't wait for the inauguration and the unveiling of the new flag that we can all be more proud of. It's about time that we turn away from this despicable nation and become a kinder, socialistic nation that focuses on racial and gender identity first and foremost! Finally we follow the successful socialistic egalitarian model! Prosperity for all! Equality of result! Defund the police for heavens sake. More social workers! Open borders and print all road signs in 6 languages. Don't forget Farsi!

KGF will be along to excoriate your shortly for this non-substantive word vomit.

 

[LakerFan]

Go ahead right wingers. Hang your hat on the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 when Trump ran and lost the popular vote by 3 million against the worst Democratic candidate in decades(until Joe Biden). If it's the only thing that will help get you out of bed in the morning between now and November, have at it.

FIFY

 

[howeda7]

FIFY

You wish. The level of white hot hatred the R's and many independents have for Hillary is unmatched.

 

[cjbfbp]

It occurs to me that Trump's 2016 campaign messaging, based on anger and resentment directed at the status quo, is wholly ineffective in 2020 — because Trump is the status quo now, and has been for 3+ years.

From my perspective, I would reword that sentence slightly ---

It occurs to me that Trump's 2016 campaign messaging, based on anger and resentment directed at the status quo, is wholly ineffective in 2020 — because Trump has demonstrated that he is much worse than the status quo.

 

[RememberMurray]

It's pretty tough to run a campaign based on how crappy things are when you yourself have been the man in charge for 3+ years.

Then again, Trump is a con man nonpareil. He knows his core audience, and he knows they'll swallow almost anything.

 

[GopherJake]

From my perspective, I would reword that sentence slightly ---

It occurs to me that Trump's 2016 campaign messaging, based on anger and resentment directed at the status quo, is wholly ineffective in 2020 — because Trump has demonstrated that he is much worse than the status quo.

He makes $400/hr posting here and spends it all on his private road.

 

[Bad Gopher]

As customary for those of your type, you retreat into abstractions like "socialism" and various other fantasies in the face of an adverse reality.

The truth of the matter is that Biden is a centrist candidate and is running on a platform that could have been a Republican platform in past decades. And that will be part of the key to him winning: he's designed to get votes from disenchanted Republicans. The Democrats had objectively better candidates, but he's built to win.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

It's pretty simple, in 2016 the Democrats didn't realize how much hatred there was for Hillary by the Independents. Now Trumps delusional talk, especially over the last few months, has sent those Independents to Biden, which is why he'll win.

Hopefully in 2024 we can get at least one real candidate between the Independents, Democrats, or Republicans.

 

[Go4Broke]

Lets take a look at how the American people feel about Trump on the issues that are important to them:


Gallup Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling --

	Approve	Disapprove	No Opinion
	%	%	%
The Economy
2020 May 28-Jun 4	--------- 47	----------51	-----------2

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling --

	Approve	Disapprove	No Opinion
	%	%	%
Response to Coronavirus
2020 May 28-Jun 4	42	58	1
2020 Apr 14-28	50	48	1
2020 Mar 13-22	60	38	1
Conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
2020 Feb 3-16	46	50	5
Situation with Iran
2020 Jan 16-29	48	50	2
Foreign Trade
2020 Jan 16-29	50	47	2
2019 Nov 1-14	44	54	2
2019 Feb 12-28	45	50	4
2018 Aug 1-12	39	56	5
2018 Feb 1-10	46	49	5
2017 Feb 1-5	45	51	4
Healthcare Policy
2019 Nov 1-14	41	56	3
2018 Nov 1-11	36	58	6
2017 Nov 2-8	31	64	5
2017 Jun 7-11	28	67	5
Gun policy
2019 Nov 1-14	46	50	4
2018 Aug 1-12	43	53	5
Situation in Syria
2019 Nov 1-14	36	57	7
2019 Feb 12-28	35	55	11
Race relations
2019 Aug 1-14	34	64	2
2019 Feb 12-28	38	59	3
Education
2019 Aug 1-14	44	50	6
2018 Aug 1-12	39	54	7
Immigration
2019 Feb 12-28	42	57	1
2018 Nov 1-11	40	57	2
2018 Aug 1-12	38	61	1
2018 Feb 1-10	41	58	2
2017 Sep 6-10	39	60	2
2017 Jun 7-11	40	59	2
2017 Feb 1-5	42	57	1
Situation with North Korea
2019 Feb 12-28	51	45	5
2018 Aug 1-12	46	50	5
2018 Feb 1-10	41	55	4
2017 Nov 2-8	35	60	5
2017 Sep 6-10	45	50	5
Relations with Russia
2019 Feb 12-28	39	58	4
2018 Aug 1-12	35	61	4
2018 Feb 1-10	37	59	4
2017 Jun 7-11	30	66	5
Taxes
2019 Feb 12-28	45	52	3
2018 Feb 1-10	46	52	2
2017 Nov 2-8	37	55	8
2017 Jun 7-11	35	57	6
Federal budget
2019 Feb 12-28	42	55	3
2018 Feb 1-10	37	59	4
2017 Jun 7-11	36	57	6
Relations with China
2019 Feb 12-28	47	48	5
National Defense
2019 Feb 12-28	50	47	3
Corruption in Government
2019 Feb 12-28	37	60	3
Unemployment
2019 Feb 12-28	54	42	5
Environment
2018 Aug 1-12	35	61	4
2017 Jun 7-11	32	63	5
Terrorism
2018 Feb 1-10	52	46	2
2017 Jun 7-11	46	53	2
Relations with News Media
2018 Feb 1-10	34	65	2
2017 Jun 7-11	34	64	2
Gallup Poll https://news.gallup.com/poll/1726/presidential-ratings-issues-approval.aspx

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

You're down 21 in the 2nd quarter. The game's not over, but it's not a coin toss.

did you not learn anything from 2016?

 

[cjbfbp]

Lets take a look at how the American people feel about Trump on the issues that are important to them:


Gallup Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling --

	Approve	Disapprove	No Opinion
	%	%	%
The Economy
2020 May 28-Jun 4	--------- 47	----------51	-----------2

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling --

	Approve	Disapprove	No Opinion
	%	%	%
Response to Coronavirus
2020 May 28-Jun 4	42	58	1
2020 Apr 14-28	50	48	1
2020 Mar 13-22	60	38	1
Conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
2020 Feb 3-16	46	50	5
Situation with Iran
2020 Jan 16-29	48	50	2
Foreign Trade
2020 Jan 16-29	50	47	2
2019 Nov 1-14	44	54	2
2019 Feb 12-28	45	50	4
2018 Aug 1-12	39	56	5
2018 Feb 1-10	46	49	5
2017 Feb 1-5	45	51	4
Healthcare Policy
2019 Nov 1-14	41	56	3
2018 Nov 1-11	36	58	6
2017 Nov 2-8	31	64	5
2017 Jun 7-11	28	67	5
Gun policy
2019 Nov 1-14	46	50	4
2018 Aug 1-12	43	53	5
Situation in Syria
2019 Nov 1-14	36	57	7
2019 Feb 12-28	35	55	11
Race relations
2019 Aug 1-14	34	64	2
2019 Feb 12-28	38	59	3
Education
2019 Aug 1-14	44	50	6
2018 Aug 1-12	39	54	7
Immigration
2019 Feb 12-28	42	57	1
2018 Nov 1-11	40	57	2
2018 Aug 1-12	38	61	1
2018 Feb 1-10	41	58	2
2017 Sep 6-10	39	60	2
2017 Jun 7-11	40	59	2
2017 Feb 1-5	42	57	1
Situation with North Korea
2019 Feb 12-28	51	45	5
2018 Aug 1-12	46	50	5
2018 Feb 1-10	41	55	4
2017 Nov 2-8	35	60	5
2017 Sep 6-10	45	50	5
Relations with Russia
2019 Feb 12-28	39	58	4
2018 Aug 1-12	35	61	4
2018 Feb 1-10	37	59	4
2017 Jun 7-11	30	66	5
Taxes
2019 Feb 12-28	45	52	3
2018 Feb 1-10	46	52	2
2017 Nov 2-8	37	55	8
2017 Jun 7-11	35	57	6
Federal budget
2019 Feb 12-28	42	55	3
2018 Feb 1-10	37	59	4
2017 Jun 7-11	36	57	6
Relations with China
2019 Feb 12-28	47	48	5
National Defense
2019 Feb 12-28	50	47	3
Corruption in Government
2019 Feb 12-28	37	60	3
Unemployment
2019 Feb 12-28	54	42	5
Environment
2018 Aug 1-12	35	61	4
2017 Jun 7-11	32	63	5
Terrorism
2018 Feb 1-10	52	46	2
2017 Jun 7-11	46	53	2
Relations with News Media
2018 Feb 1-10	34	65	2
2017 Jun 7-11	34	64	2
Gallup Poll https://news.gallup.com/poll/1726/presidential-ratings-issues-approval.aspx

I haven't seen that underwater measure on the economy for Trump in any other poll. The other polls I've seen rate him slightly above water on that dimension but underwater, often "biggly," on just about everything else. I'm not sure why so many maintain that view of Trump but the notion that private businessmen, regardless of who they are, must know more about the economy is pretty firmly rooted in American thought.

 

[howeda7]

did you not learn anything from 2016?

Sure. But as of this moment, Biden is far ahead of where Hillary was. He's not leading in these states by 1-2% but by 6, 8, 10%. Can polls be off? Yes. Are they generally that far off? No.

Treating winning 3 states no R has won in 30 years by less than 1% as gospel that it's going to happen again is just as foolish as declaring the game over in the 2nd quarter, which I'm not doing. Trump is losing in every swing state he needs to win. Saying "it's a coin toss" is wishful thinking. Can he still win? Sure. Does he have a 50% chance of winning right now? No.

 

[cjbfbp]

did you not learn anything from 2016?

You guys are hilariously predictable with your extremely short-term memories. The problem seems to be that you learned too much from 2016. Two words that are very simple but very powerful in their truth: things change.