Some stats that make PSU fans feel confident.

5pyker

Member
Tanner Morgan has a QBR of 91.8 when not facing pressure, but is only 38.3 when facing pressure. PSU is number 9 in the country in defensive pressures, causing havoc on 45% of snaps.

Penn St is Number 1 in the country in yards per rush and number 2 in rush yards per game.

PSU's first string QB is playing this week.
 

Otis

Well-known member
Penn State has built the top rushing defense in the nation by facing 1 of the top 5 rushing teams in the B1G. And that was Maryland in a game they won 59-0. Not exactly a game where MD tried to run for very long.

They have failed to play Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota. I'm not convinced their defense is as solid as they are made out to be.
 

Panthadad2

Well-known member
Both Penn State's and Minnesota's stats are going to come back to earth somewhat by the end of the season with both teams having at least 2-3 tough games left. Looking forward to the game.
 

gopherjay

Active member
Morgan has some intangibles going his way right now. We have multiple running backs that will pose different styles of play and that is a concern for any defense. I have no doubt we can score. Can we stop them their two play makers? Can we get the bounces and get a game that is well officiated? I think that in the end, the team with the most gas left will win.
 

Panthadad2

Well-known member
Morgan has some intangibles going his way right now. We have multiple running backs that will pose different styles of play and that is a concern for any defense. I have no doubt we can score. Can we stop them their two play makers? Can we get the bounces and get a game that is well officiated? I think that in the end, the team with the most gas left will win.
I hate that officiating gets called out as a major factor. But it is.
 

CurveballJesus

Well-known member
Minnesota enters this weekend's game ranked at No. 17 in the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the season, a full five spots below the next undefeated team in No. 12 Baylor. As if that's not insulting enough, Minnesota finds itself ranked behind six teams with two losses. This is the result of being 8-0 when nobody ever expected you to be, mixed in with some luck.

This narrative has been pissing me off. What luck? Did another team's punter just fumble the ball back into the endzone for us to score the game winning touchdown? Did the referees somehow in overtime call an obviously fumbled snap an "illegal snap" and blow the play dead? (No, that happened to Baylor, who should have a loss right now if not for luck!) The non-con wins weren't pretty, but they damn sure weren't lucky. Players made big time winning plays when they needed to in the clutch. That's not luck, that's ability.
 

PitinoFan

Well-known member
Tanner Morgan has a QBR of 91.8 when not facing pressure, but is only 38.3 when facing pressure. PSU is number 9 in the country in defensive pressures, causing havoc on 45% of snaps.

Penn St is Number 1 in the country in yards per rush and number 2 in rush yards per game.

PSU's first string QB is playing this week.
You should feel fortunate to be playing against Minnesota’s backup QB. If you win, I wonder if the committee will consider that in their next ranking.
 

5pyker

Member
Morgan has some intangibles going his way right now. We have multiple running backs that will pose different styles of play and that is a concern for any defense. I have no doubt we can score. Can we stop them their two play makers? Can we get the bounces and get a game that is well officiated? I think that in the end, the team with the most gas left will win.
Morgan hasn't been asked to win the game with his arm. Other than Rutgers and Georgia Southern, he hasn't thrown more than 23 passes in a game. You've had 376 rush attempts and only 174 pass attempts. PSU's #1 focus is stopping the run and I guarantee you that's what they will try to do tomorrow to force Tanner to throw the ball 30+ times.
 

PitinoFan

Well-known member
Morgan hasn't been asked to win the game with his arm. Other than Rutgers and Georgia Southern, he hasn't thrown more than 23 passes in a game. You've had 376 rush attempts and only 174 pass attempts. PSU's #1 focus is stopping the run and I guarantee you that's what they will try to do tomorrow to force Tanner to throw the ball 30+ times.
My guess is he probably will throw 30+ times tomorrow, because I fully expect PS to focus on stopping the run. Be careful what you wish for.
 

MNVCGUY

Well-known member
Morgan hasn't been asked to win the game with his arm. Other than Rutgers and Georgia Southern, he hasn't thrown more than 23 passes in a game. You've had 376 rush attempts and only 174 pass attempts. PSU's #1 focus is stopping the run and I guarantee you that's what they will try to do tomorrow to force Tanner to throw the ball 30+ times.
21/22 - 396 yards and 4 TD against Purdue.

He maybe hasn't been asked to throw the ball 40+ times because we have been running so well on people but he has come up huge with his arm on multiple occasions this season. He makes good decisions and has 3 really talented receivers to work with. His numbers stack up favorably with the top QBs in the country.

It all comes down to the O-Line, if they can give Morgan time to work you might just be surprised about what he is able to do.
 

Section2

Well-known member
My guess is he probably will throw 30+ times tomorrow, because I fully expect PS to focus on stopping the run. Be careful what you wish for.
They are going to hope their base defense can shut down our running game. If they have to devote extra attention to stopping the run, our offense will have a lot of success.
 
Penn State has a really good defense. The only team to get more than one touchdown against them so far is Michigan. Their only opponents with more than 100 net yards rushing are Michigan and Buffalo. It will be hard to get yards on the ground against them. Comparatively, they're okay against the pass, but not elite. For the running game to get going, and we will need rushing yardage to some extent if we are going to pull the upset, then we need to give Morgan time to get the ball in the air for some early completions. If we can get the passing game in tune in the first quarter and make the Nittany Lions use more defenders in pass coverage, there's a chance to get some space to run. We are underdogs for a reason, but have plenty of chances to pull this off if we play well early and don't get stuck in the mud by falling too far behind.

Our schedule so far has been knocked as soft and objectively that isn't a lie. It wasn't intentionally meant to be that poor, but Fresno State, Nebraska, and to a lesser extent Maryland have played below expectations, our hardest games wound up back loaded into November, and a forgiving schedule rotation has enabled us to skip Ohio State (arguably the best team in the nation), Michigan (having a good season despite the early struggles and the constant moaning of their fans), Michigan State (having a down year, but dangerous), and a surprisingly good Indiana (they'd get a lot more national press if we weren't the Big Ten's top underdog making good). Penn State is the top team we've played so far by a great distance and we need to play our best game of the season to win.
 

OddStack

Active member
Tanner Morgan has a QBR of 91.8 when not facing pressure, but is only 38.3 when facing pressure. PSU is number 9 in the country in defensive pressures, causing havoc on 45% of snaps.

Penn St is Number 1 in the country in yards per rush and number 2 in rush yards per game.

PSU's first string QB is playing this week.
What's giving me hope.....Pundits point to Iowa and Michigan as gold standard opponents and PSU's ability to still post impressive stats against the rush.

However, Iowa has not shown the ability to run the ball effectively like they traditionally can. The averaged 2.3 yards per rush against PSU which is impressive for the Nittany Lions. However, the Hawks only averaged 3.1 ypc against Purdue and NW and 0.0 against Michigan. They did, however manage 5.0 ypc against Rutgers. On the season the Hawks are managing just 3.9 ypc which is hardly what you want.

In addition, Michigan wasn't able to rush effectively with any consistency until recently. In their first 6 games they only cracked 4 ypc twice (6.1 v. Illinois and 5.2 v. MTSU). The other 4 were 2.1 (Wisc.), 2.4 (Army), 2.4 (Rutgers), and 3.6 (Iowa). Thus, it's not like Michigan's run game was clicking heading into the PSU game. They rushed for 3.4 ypc against PSU.

Consequently, I'm hoping that the PSU stats are a little fool's gold, and that we take it to him on the ground and in the air!!
 

die hard gopher

Well-known member
Morgan hasn't been asked to win the game with his arm. Other than Rutgers and Georgia Southern, he hasn't thrown more than 23 passes in a game. You've had 376 rush attempts and only 174 pass attempts. PSU's #1 focus is stopping the run and I guarantee you that's what they will try to do tomorrow to force Tanner to throw the ball 30+ times.
He threw for 396 yards and 4 TD's to zero picks against Purdue. And was 5-6 on third and 4th down against Fresno state including 3-3 on the game tying drive.

There have been several games where he was asked to and did win the game with his arm.

I've always felt this team is better at passing the ball then running it, we just choose to run it more than we pass. We certainly have more talented players in our passing game than our running game.
 

MNVCGUY

Well-known member
He threw for 396 yards and 4 TD's to zero picks against Purdue. And was 5-6 on third and 4th down against Fresno state including 3-3 on the game tying drive.

There have been several games where he was asked to and did win the game with his arm.

I've always felt this team is better at passing the ball then running it, we just choose to run it more than we pass. We certainly have more talented players in our passing game than our running game.
The coaches are very good at taking what the defense gives them. If a team loads up to stop the run we pass, if they load up to stop the pass we run. If they load up to stop the run and can't stop us anyway we keep on running.

The O-Line has to hold up, if they give Morgan time to work Penn State may be surprised about what we can throw at them. They will be the best defensive team we have faced this year, on the flip side we are the best offensive team they have seen. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
 

5pyker

Member
He threw for 396 yards and 4 TD's to zero picks against Purdue. And was 5-6 on third and 4th down against Fresno state including 3-3 on the game tying drive.

There have been several games where he was asked to and did win the game with his arm.

I've always felt this team is better at passing the ball then running it, we just choose to run it more than we pass. We certainly have more talented players in our passing game than our running game.
It's a lot easier to play QB when are able to run the ball. Safeties come down in the box, DL doesn't rush up field, play action is more effective - there's a lot of reasons. But if PSU is able to shut down the run and make you one dimensional, which is what PSU tries to do and is very effective at doing, it's a lot harder on the QB. He hasn't done that yet.
 

5pyker

Member
The coaches are very good at taking what the defense gives them. If a team loads up to stop the run we pass, if they load up to stop the pass we run. If they load up to stop the run and can't stop us anyway we keep on running.

The O-Line has to hold up, if they give Morgan time to work Penn State may be surprised about what we can throw at them. They will be the best defensive team we have faced this year, on the flip side we are the best offensive team they have seen. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
It's a lot easier to do that against the competition you have faced. All I'm saying is, Tanner hasn't been asked to win games yet. You are predominantly a running team, what will happen when you don't have success running the ball? If you have success, this discussion is obviously pointless, but that will be a very tough task running the ball consistently on this defense.
 

Panthadad2

Well-known member
It's a lot easier to do that against the competition you have faced. All I'm saying is, Tanner hasn't been asked to win games yet. You are predominantly a running team, what will happen when you don't have success running the ball? If you have success, this discussion is obviously pointless, but that will be a very tough task running the ball consistently on this defense.
Um, you haven't watched a single Minnesota game yet, have you.
 

5pyker

Member
The coaches are very good at taking what the defense gives them. If a team loads up to stop the run we pass, if they load up to stop the pass we run. If they load up to stop the run and can't stop us anyway we keep on running.

The O-Line has to hold up, if they give Morgan time to work Penn State may be surprised about what we can throw at them. They will be the best defensive team we have faced this year, on the flip side we are the best offensive team they have seen. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
Michigan's Oline was able to hold up and Patterson was able to use his legs and make some tough throws under pressure. That's how Michigan was able to score a whopping 21 points on PSU. Morgan isn't as mobile as Shea and I don't think Minnesota's Oline is as good as Michigan's. Obviously it's CFB and crazy things happen, but I think PSU's defense will have a lot of success against Minnesota. But It all comes down to stopping the run.
 

die hard gopher

Well-known member
It's a lot easier to play QB when are able to run the ball. Safeties come down in the box, DL doesn't rush up field, play action is more effective - there's a lot of reasons. But if PSU is able to shut down the run and make you one dimensional, which is what PSU tries to do and is very effective at doing, it's a lot harder on the QB. He hasn't done that yet.
We averaged 2.7 yards per rush for less than 100 yards against Purdue, 2.8 yards per rush against FSU and just 3.7 against GSU. Against GSU he engineered a 13 play, 94 yard game winning drive with under 4 minutes where we only ran the ball once and against Fresno, he led an 11 play, 59 yard game tying drive where we ran the ball just 4 times.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
No offense, spyker but you’re sort of outing yourself as willfully ignorant, hopefully your team feels the same way as you. Morgan has been consistently clutch in long yardage situations on passing downs going back to last year. It’s not really debatable. Whatever statistic you’re using is garbage.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Michigan's Oline was able to hold up and Patterson was able to use his legs and make some tough throws under pressure. That's how Michigan was able to score a whopping 21 points on PSU. Morgan isn't as mobile as Shea and I don't think Minnesota's Oline is as good as Michigan's. Obviously it's CFB and crazy things happen, but I think PSU's defense will have a lot of success against Minnesota. But It all comes down to stopping the run.
Michigans offense has been near garbage up until Notre Dame. They seem to be getting things put together now but they were average at best early on. Let’s see how they finish the year.
 

PMWinSTP

Well-known member
No offense, spyker but you’re sort of outing yourself as willfully ignorant, hopefully your team feels the same way as you. Morgan has been consistently clutch in long yardage situations on passing downs going back to last year. It’s not really debatable. Whatever statistic you’re using is garbage.
Fleck & Co have done a great job of continuing to open up the offensive playbook in the last several games...adding nice wrinkles here and there to further expose the defense. I expect that to continue tomorrow.
 

MNVCGUY

Well-known member
No offense, spyker but you’re sort of outing yourself as willfully ignorant, hopefully your team feels the same way as you. Morgan has been consistently clutch in long yardage situations on passing downs going back to last year. It’s not really debatable. Whatever statistic you’re using is garbage.
Yep, he is willing to totally discount what our offense has done based on who we have played yet at the same time assumes their defense won't have any trouble at all against the best offense they have faced all year.

I'm not taking anything away from their defense but they have not exactly taken on great offensive teams to this point in the season. He may not want to give our O credit based on who we have played but I think it is very clear we have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten with the ability to hurt teams through the air and on the ground. Guess we will find out for sure tomorrow.
 

PitinoFan

Well-known member
Yeah...the Gophers didn’t start running the ball effectively until the 5th game of the season, yet Morgan still had efficiency and YPA stats that ranked up there with Tua, Burrow, and Hurts. The pass blocking wasn’t very good either until around that point in the season. Morgan was sacked something like 16 times in the first 4 games, yet he was putting up these numbers. He’s only been sacked once in the last 4 games to give you an idea of the improvement we’ve seen in that area.
 

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Tanner Morgan is second in the conference on third down passer rating. If we isolate only 3rd and 10+ he’s still second with a 204.43 and a 64.3% completion rate. Clifford is 105.14 and 57.1%.

For 3rd and 7-9 Clifford is at 40%. Morgan 67%.

I can cherry pick stats as well. Of course MN hasn’t played anyone yet...PSU’s secondary full of high draft picks? Serious question.
 

everybody knows my name

Freakishly Hyperintelligent
It's a lot easier to do that against the competition you have faced. All I'm saying is, Tanner hasn't been asked to win games yet. You are predominantly a running team, what will happen when you don't have success running the ball? If you have success, this discussion is obviously pointless, but that will be a very tough task running the ball consistently on this defense.
What will happen when PSU can't stop the run? See, we can speculate too.

It's a good thing for PSU that your coaches will be better informed than you are. The game tomorrow should be a good one.
 
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