Odds that Oturu will be a Junior next year

Chances Oturu will return for Junior Season are:

  • 100% He is a Loyal Gopher!

    Votes: 8 4.7%
  • 75-99% He likes being the Baddest Big in the B1G!

    Votes: 12 7.1%
  • 50-74% At this rate he has to be looking. But he needs more development.

    Votes: 48 28.4%
  • 25-49% There is a slight chance he returns.

    Votes: 45 26.6%
  • 1-24% It all depends on where he is forecasted to be drafted.

    Votes: 31 18.3%
  • 0% He is gone and will be a first rounder.

    Votes: 25 14.8%

  • Total voters
    169

manderson1984

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Agree.

I don't trust any mock draft projections in any sport since Todd McShay mentioned Mitch Leidner as a potential 1st round draft pick. My automatic inclination when hearing a NBA draft projection is to immediately add about 10 spots to almost any American college player. There's always the international players nobody's heard of that clog up the first round and, hence, move guys down that we've watched play college basketball. So if the best projection of Oturu out there is #10, in my head he's probably at best about #20.
Basketball projections are a little more consistent and spot on than football. It's a numbers game. Also it was the first mock before a game had been played. Mitch wasn't ever in a McShay one again onces games were played. Oturo keeps these numbers, he's probably a lottery pick. The draft class this year is poor and he has no motor or character issues.
 

manderson1984

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I get that logic for the top 5-10 guys. But in the back half of the 1st round, you're just trying to get a solid player.
Spurs drafted older guys most times and some organizations do value. Others figure they can find journeyman guys through free agency and will try and strike gold in the draft.
 

cjbfbp

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I get that logic for the top 5-10 guys. But in the back half of the 1st round, you're just trying to get a solid player.
You're right. There were 3 seniors drafted in the first round last year and two were in the twenties. One of those, Matisse Thybulle of Washington, was acquired by the Sixers. The Sixers weren't looking for a future star (no cap space) so they went with a defensive specialist who could play right away off the bench and hit 3 pointers. They got exactly what they were looking for.
 

cjbfbp

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Spurs drafted older guys most times and some organizations do value. Others figure they can find journeyman guys through free agency and will try and strike gold in the draft.
All of that is true. You'll recall, though, that the Spurs for quite a long time were drafting at the bottom of the first round because of their success. They did make a deal involving trades to pick up Kawhi Leonard (an early entry soph) in the middle of the first round. What a steal that was!
 

Rouser

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I'm puzzled why NBA teams still "punish" older players in the draft. They're not running backs who are using up their limited mileage. I'd rather have a under his rookie contract from age 22-27 than 20-25 all other things equal.
Basically, the NBA (and likely rightly so) feels that a player will be better at 22 (and beyond) if they are developing in the NBA (even if G league or just in practice) once they are 20 (in this example) versus spending an extra year or two developing in college.
 

Bordergopher

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Hard to believe he won’t go. If he does, The cupboards will be nearly bare at the 4 and 5 spots. Maybe Curry and a few very raw freshman and sophomores along with Omersa. We might have to play Omersa at center and sorround him with a bunch of guards. We will be jacking up lots of threes.
 

Otis

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Hard to believe he won’t go. If he does, The cupboards will be nearly bare at the 4 and 5 spots. Maybe Curry and a few very raw freshman and sophomores along with Omersa. We might have to play Omersa at center and sorround him with a bunch of guards. We will be jacking up lots of threes.
Curry? Man I don't like to say ill of the guy but we cannot count on him.
 

leib0039

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Yah mock drafts are pretty rough. Look at like 20 of them, Oturu 10th in one and not even a 1st in any of the others. Have to remember they need click bait too. They throw a random guy or 2 in there and all of a sudden an entire fan base that would have never bothered is now clicking their article to see. I would be SHOCKED if he is a top 10 pick. He is an awesome college player, but he is going to be hurt by the way the NBA game is played now. In 1994 he would have been a top 3-4 pick with his size/low post game, but he still has a few things to work on before he is there. Add to that in the top 10-15 its not always about production, its about upside. Look at Josh Hart, pretty much best player in college his last year at Nova and went in the back end of the back round, simply didnt have the upside of some kid from Slovenia who flashed at a camp or a 18 yr old who can jump out of the gym and a team thinks they can mold.
 

manderson1984

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Hard to believe he won’t go. If he does, The cupboards will be nearly bare at the 4 and 5 spots. Maybe Curry and a few very raw freshman and sophomores along with Omersa. We might have to play Omersa at center and sorround him with a bunch of guards. We will be jacking up lots of threes.
I love the sound of that honestly! You make it sound like it's a bad thing.
 

Block M

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Oturu has some significant holes in his game and would likely be in the G-league in 2020 if he goes pro. His footwork is a work in progress as is his rapidly improving face the basket game. Physically he is well above average in the B1G for his position but I would not call him an elite, explosive athlete. He'll get a little stronger but its his skills and footwork that need more time to develop. Where that occurs remains to be seen.

My hope is that DO stays one more year and then gets drafted by a team that could really develop him to his strengths like, say, San Antonio.
 

bga1

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Side note to this discussion. The mid year Wooden award top 25 was announced. Oturu is not on it. Six guys from the Big Ten are on it -including Garza of Iowa.
 

Slim Tubby

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Side note to this discussion. The mid year Wooden award top 25 was announced. Oturu is not on it. Six guys from the Big Ten are on it -including Garza of Iowa.
Absolutely ridiculous. You can make a very strong argument that Oturu has been the best player in the entire Big 10 this season.
 

Keyser Söze

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I'm puzzled why NBA teams still "punish" older players in the draft. They're not running backs who are using up their limited mileage. I'd rather have a under his rookie contract from age 22-27 than 20-25 all other things equal.
99/100, if a player doesn't enter the draft, it's because they aren't good enough to get drafted. Most players don't make significant improvement every single year in college, so if you've made it to your junior/senior year without being good enough to be drafted, you probably never will be. This is why you don't see that many upperclassman get drafted in the first round. It's not because they're being penalized for being old. It's because they aren't good enough.
 

howeda7

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99/100, if a player doesn't enter the draft, it's because they aren't good enough to get drafted. Most players don't make significant improvement every single year in college, so if you've made it to your junior/senior year without being good enough to be drafted, you probably never will be. This is why you don't see that many upperclassman get drafted in the first round. It's not because they're being penalized for being old. It's because they aren't good enough.
Perhaps, but we're talking about a big man going from this sophomore to junior seasons. There's still plenty of room to get stronger, etc.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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I get that logic for the top 5-10 guys. But in the back half of the 1st round, you're just trying to get a solid player.
I hear what you're saying, but man does it seem like it i almost always better to draft youth/potential in the NBA draft.

I can't think of a superstar drafted outside of the top 15 that was an upperclassmen when they left college. I can think of a number of super stars who were FR/SO or Euros.

Giannis, Jokic, Gobert, Siakam.

I even think there are more solid/rotational level players who were drafted in the late 1st/2nd that were young. The best upperclassmen I can think of Malcolm Brogdon, Harrell (Louisville), and Caris Lavert. If Lavert wasn't injured, he would have left after his SO season (and likely would have been picked higher).

Youth really matters for the NBA and it seems like the NBA executives, IMO, are correct on it being a major factor.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Perhaps, but we're talking about a big man going from this sophomore to junior seasons. There's still plenty of room to get stronger, etc.
I don't think they are saying that they won't improve as a player. They are saying that they won't improve their potential.
 

Keyser Söze

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Perhaps, but we're talking about a big man going from this sophomore to junior seasons. There's still plenty of room to get stronger, etc.
I was speaking generally. Big men tend to develop later than guards. Oturu specifically still has plenty of room to improve despite that fact that he is so good already.
 

GopherBlood666

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I hear what you're saying, but man does it seem like it i almost always better to draft youth/potential in the NBA draft.

I can't think of a superstar drafted outside of the top 15 that was an upperclassmen when they left college. I can think of a number of super stars who were FR/SO or Euros.

Giannis, Jokic, Gobert, Siakam.

I even think there are more solid/rotational level players who were drafted in the late 1st/2nd that were young. The best upperclassmen I can think of Malcolm Brogdon, Harrell (Louisville), and Caris Lavert. If Lavert wasn't injured, he would have left after his SO season (and likely would have been picked higher).

Youth really matters for the NBA and it seems like the NBA executives, IMO, are correct on it being a major factor.
What year was kawhi when he left? He was 16th pick overall i believe... NBA does draft on potential and man there are a lot of first round misses, but a lot of guys just don't have the talent to stay in the league despite their perceived upside. If you can play in the league you'll get there somehow, but much easier and nicer if you can be a top 15 pick for sure.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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What year was kawhi when he left? He was 16th pick overall i believe... NBA does draft on potential and man there are a lot of first round misses, but a lot of guys just don't have the talent to stay in the league despite their perceived upside. If you can play in the league you'll get there somehow, but much easier and nicer if you can be a top 15 pick for sure.
He left after his SO season.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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I think that the best model for Oturu (from Gopher fan perspective) is Rui Hachimuro who went as the 10th pick last year, as a junior, and is doing well.
I don't think that's an apt comparison.

Rui was from Japan and did nothing as a FR and was OK as a SO. I believe he was considered to have more than the typical untapped potential for a college JR. Oturu is a different kind of prospect and he is much better during his SO year than Rui was in his. Cameron Johnson was also a SR drafted by the Suns.

All of that said, of course you're going to find upperclassmen drafted every year and there are always exceptions to the rules. But the evidence (IMO) that age is an important criteria on where someone will be drafted and on their potential. It seems strange to say, but there is a big difference between 19 and 21.
 

cjbfbp

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Absolutely ridiculous. You can make a very strong argument that Oturu has been the best player in the entire Big 10 this season.
Even if not the best, certainly top 3.
 

cjbfbp

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I even think there are more solid/rotational level players who were drafted in the late 1st/2nd that were young. The best upperclassmen I can think of Malcolm Brogdon, Harrell (Louisville), and Caris Lavert. If Lavert wasn't injured, he would have left after his SO season (and likely would have been picked higher).

Youth really matters for the NBA and it seems like the NBA executives, IMO, are correct on it being a major factor.
Pretty good list. I might add Kyle Kuzma (junior) and Buddy Hield (senior) to the list, but, you're right. The pickings are slim.
 

GoldenGophers7

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The only thing he has left to prove is his ability to shoot from outside. I'm not another year in college will do enough for him and therefore raise his stock to a lottery pick. Whether he leaves this year or next year he will fall around the same spot in the draft.
He will be here next year no doubt.
 

EG#9

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The poll options are quite strange. If Daniel leaves it will have nothing to do with being disloyal and he certainly won't stay because he likes being "the baddest big in the B1G". His decision, if he has one, comes down to where he's projected to be drafted, his financial situation, and the potential to improve that positioning with another year in school.

I am very skeptical of the projections of Daniel in the first round. The Center position in the NBA is not a priority and Daniel seems a little short for the position. He's not going to be the rim protector that teams want at the position and he's not going to be a dominant scorer. What Daniel has going for him is that he moves well, has shown growth with his skills, and the fact that this draft class is viewed as weak. The best comparison I can make to Daniel might be Gorgui Dieng who is listed at 6'11 and isn't much of a shot-blocker. I think Daniel moves better than Gorgui and has the potential to add a 3 point shot to his arsenal like Gorgui did. Gorgui went in the first round, but that was before the NBA's downsizing trend.
 

Zeppelin Gopher

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The best comparison I can make to Daniel might be Gorgui Dieng who is listed at 6'11 and isn't much of a shot-blocker. I think Daniel moves better than Gorgui and has the potential to add a 3 point shot to his arsenal like Gorgui did. Gorgui went in the first round, but that was before the NBA's downsizing trend.
Not a good comparison. Daniel is already a far better player than Gorgui was as a senior. He's far more fluid/athletic, has better touch, much better rebounder, better running the floor, doesn't have an erector set shot that takes 5 seconds to get off, etc.
 

SelectionSunday

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Even if not the best, certainly top 3.
Certainly an interesting debate. He's definitely 1st Team All-Big Ten to this point. To me these 5 guys are the clear leaders so far. I had a hard time coming up with anyone that could crack those 5. Teske the next closest thing? Wesson & Cowan haven't been that dominant.

Garza
Oturu
Stevens
Tillman
Winston
 

GopherBlood666

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That was a long time ago and, even then, Duncan was a bit of an anomaly. A player of Duncan's stature staying for four years would be unheard of today.
His name is daniel oturu (fingers crossed)
 
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