Odds that Oturu will be a Junior next year

Chances Oturu will return for Junior Season are:

  • 100% He is a Loyal Gopher!

    Votes: 8 4.7%
  • 75-99% He likes being the Baddest Big in the B1G!

    Votes: 12 7.1%
  • 50-74% At this rate he has to be looking. But he needs more development.

    Votes: 48 28.4%
  • 25-49% There is a slight chance he returns.

    Votes: 45 26.6%
  • 1-24% It all depends on where he is forecasted to be drafted.

    Votes: 31 18.3%
  • 0% He is gone and will be a first rounder.

    Votes: 25 14.8%

  • Total voters
    169

Otis

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Just wondering what you guys really think on the chances that Oturu returns next year.

Right now he looks like the best big in the B1G. If he keeps this up, I'm pretty sure he will be gone.
 

Stan

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I have to imagine he'll test the waters and go through the process. He should, he's dominant.
 

tmvander

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The only thing he has left to prove is his ability to shoot from outside. I'm not another year in college will do enough for him and therefore raise his stock to a lottery pick. Whether he leaves this year or next year he will fall around the same spot in the draft.
 

bga1

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The only thing he has left to prove is his ability to shoot from outside. I'm not another year in college will do enough for him and therefore raise his stock to a lottery pick. Whether he leaves this year or next year he will fall around the same spot in the draft.
Three things he can do in one more year: Get stronger, improve long range shooting and become a better passer when trapped.
As I posted the other day- he has a different kind of decision than guys like Coffey. He is going to be a first rounder. The question is how high. If he goes this year at #20- that's 3 years for a total of about 5 million. If he waits and can get himself to #10- that's three years at a total of 11 million or so.
I think he can make that jump and there are guys like him who have done it from their soph year to junior year.

I expect him to go but I can see reasons for him to stay as well.
 

upnorthkid

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I'd put him at 50/50. He's dominant enough to be a true post at the next level yet and doesn't have the jumper (his form last night several times was atrocious) to be a pick and pop kind of guy. He needs 1 of those 2 things to make him a lottery pick and he could get there with another year if he can't this season. Depends on if he wants to do that or if he's cool with being a late 1st rounder and trying to develop at the NBA level or if he hears someone wants to use a lottery pick on him. If he's flirting with the lottery, he should leave. If not, imo he should come back to cement the lottery status (ie bet on himself)
 

GopherPete

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I would think that an area of his game he can make improvements is in quickness and specifically in his footwork. When he is away from the basket and starts dribbling, he doesn't move very quickly. Whether or not he can develop that at this level (or at all), I am not sure.
 

Gopherbbdude

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He will stay one more year and if the Gopher team looks good he will stay his Sr. year......at least that's what I'm hoping for.

MSU's Tillman will test him to the max this week!!
 

cjbfbp

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The only thing he has left to prove is his ability to shoot from outside. I'm not another year in college will do enough for him and therefore raise his stock to a lottery pick. Whether he leaves this year or next year he will fall around the same spot in the draft.
Agreed, although I think he shoots better from the outside than most college centers at this point of their careers.
 

Holy Man

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Hard to see him staying unless someone tells him his outside shooting drops him to the second round. His jump from last year to this is amazing.
 

Go Gophs

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I agree. Hard to see him staying. I'd really like him too though. The team would be AGAIN in huge trouble if he left just like they were this year when Coffey left.

They just don't have the impact recruits lined up to account for the losses of guys like this.
 

nooram

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Nothing to go on, but I think he will stay.
 

Shaqfu14

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As I posted on another board I won't fault Oturo if he goes. However I think he needs to work on three things: upper body strength, outside shooting and passing out of the double team. If he improves on those he would probably be a top three pick. He comes back, we land Walton and no significant injuries they will have a team that has FF potential.
 

CentralGopher

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What is his major?. What are his family's views on education?. A lot depends on those factors. He may love being a student or want to do well by his family rather than go to class only as a means to get to the nba.
 

Block M

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If everyone comes back next year (big if), they will be a very dangerous team. Daniel would also be on the Wooden Award list and a candidate All American. Thats very rare air.
Hope he returns.
 

Bad Gopher

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Let's put it this way: Antoine Winfield would have some splainin to do if he decided to come back as a Gopher next year. I don't know what more he can accomplish as a collegiate. Oturu: I can definitely see why he'd want to come back. One can make an argument either way.
 

Holy Man

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Let's put it this way: Antoine Winfield would have some splainin to do if he decided to come back as a Gopher next year. I don't know what more he can accomplish as a collegiate. Oturu: I can definitely see why he'd want to come back. One can make an argument either way.
I agree with the take and the previous post that I think a lot of it will be his/family view on education. If it is a very high priority, there is a chance he stays. Otherwise, I just don't see it in the current landscape.
 

cjbfbp

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What is his major?. What are his family's views on education?. A lot depends on those factors. He may love being a student or want to do well by his family rather than go to class only as a means to get to the nba.
OK, let's look at hard facts instead of speculative intangibles. On the latest NBAdraft.net mock draft, Daniel is listed at #10. #10 seems a bit high to me and I don't see Daniel getting much attention in other mock drafts but let's say he can get drafted at #15 after this season. Most first round picks tend to get three years of guaranteed compensation. Last season's #15 pick received a first year salary of $2,737,600, a second year salary of $2,874,500, and a third year salary of $3,011,400. That's $8,623,600 over 3 seasons. That total should be a bit higher after this season. If one falls to #24, the corresponding 3 year figure is $5,279,000, a difference of $3,344,500.

When it comes to entering the NBA draft as a projected first rounder, you need to strike while the iron is hot. The reason for this the primary attention each season is focused on the highly rated freshmen (the better 5 stars). If they stay healthy and do pretty well in their freshman seasons, they tend to get drafted pretty highly. If Daniel waits until next year, there will be a new class of very highly rated freshmen to compete against as well as this season's highly rated freshmen who for one reason or another decide not to enter the draft.

More often than not, staying in college when you're identified as a hot prospect results in your draft stock being lowered. One of the best recent examples of this is Jared Sullinger formerly of Ohio State. Had he left after his freshman season he might have been been drafted in the top 5 or at least the top 10. He stayed one more year and was drafted #21. There are plenty of other examples if one wishes to do the research.

I place a great deal of value on education and my education has helped me lead a relatively comfortable life, but I never had the opportunity Daniel may have. One doesn't have to forfeit his future education by becoming a professional athlete. Just ask Chris Collinsworth or former Viking and Minnesota Supreme Court justice Allen Page.
 

BarnBurner

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IF he is projected at 15 or so, it would be hard for him to turn it down.

As good as he is, he would get eaten alive in the NBA. just based on his current strength. Skills are off the charts and he appears to be a very, very good kid.
 

upnorthkid

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OK, let's look at hard facts instead of speculative intangibles. On the latest NBAdraft.net mock draft, Daniel is listed at #10. #10 seems a bit high to me and I don't see Daniel getting much attention in other mock drafts but let's say he can get drafted at #15 after this season. Most first round picks tend to get three years of guaranteed compensation. Last season's #15 pick received a first year salary of $2,737,600, a second year salary of $2,874,500, and a third year salary of $3,011,400. That's $8,623,600 over 3 seasons. That total should be a bit higher after this season. If one falls to #24, the corresponding 3 year figure is $5,279,000, a difference of $3,344,500.

When it comes to entering the NBA draft as a projected first rounder, you need to strike while the iron is hot. The reason for this the primary attention each season is focused on the highly rated freshmen (the better 5 stars). If they stay healthy and do pretty well in their freshman seasons, they tend to get drafted pretty highly. If Daniel waits until next year, there will be a new class of very highly rated freshmen to compete against as well as this season's highly rated freshmen who for one reason or another decide not to enter the draft.

More often than not, staying in college when you're identified as a hot prospect results in your draft stock being lowered. One of the best recent examples of this is Jared Sullinger formerly of Ohio State. Had he left after his freshman season he might have been been drafted in the top 5 or at least the top 10. He stayed one more year and was drafted #21. There are plenty of other examples if one wishes to do the research.

I place a great deal of value on education and my education has helped me lead a relatively comfortable life, but I never had the opportunity Daniel may have. One doesn't have to forfeit his future education by becoming a professional athlete. Just ask Chris Collinsworth or former Viking and Minnesota Supreme Court justice Allen Page.
Your top part is the golden question. Where would he slot? Many projections had him nowhere to be mentioned coming into the year and the value of the true, low-post big man (which is what Oturo projects as now given his relative lack of an outside shot) is relatively low and thus centers are taken relatively uncommonly in the first round (7 total taken last year with only 1 lottery pick) will dictate his fate. If he is one of the top 2-3 centers on the board, I'd say go for sure, as that is likely your midteens selection. If he can be more of a midtier PF/pick and pop guy, he infinitely expands his landing spots and would thus have a greater chance at jumping up into the lottery. He will for sure test the waters (would be dumb not to based on the new rules) but his grade is going to be key because not many centers are taken now, particularly if they are a back to the basket guy. You fall to the second round and then it gets really tough.
 

stocker08

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If everyone comes back next year (big if), they will be a very dangerous team. Daniel would also be on the Wooden Award list and a candidate All American. Thats very rare air.
Hope he returns.
That's the way that I see it. Oturu will see a lot more exposure on what would be a much better team next year if he chose to stay. Not to mention that he would have some potential post season award hype to go along with it.

All depends on where he projects to go. Late first rounder? He could definitely improve his stock with one more year.
 

Go Gophs

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Ythe value of the true, low-post big man (which is what Oturo projects as now given his relative lack of an outside shot) is relatively low and thus centers are taken relatively uncommonly in the first round (7 total taken last year with only 1 lottery pick) will dictate his fate.
Karl Anthony Town, Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Yao Ming, Blake Griffen, Deandre Ayton, Anderw Bogut.


These are just a few and they were all #1 overalls. Good Centers are generally at the very top of the draft. Not saying Oturo matches those players, but centers are VERY common in the first round. Especially ones that can move and chew gum at the same time.
 

forever a gopher

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The NBA draft is so much about potential, that I'm not sure his draft stock will go up appreciably by staying another year. He certainly has things to work on, and would be better by staying, but that's not how the system works.

I selfishly want him to stay, because he is so fun to watch. But if I had to bet, I'd say he's gone.
 

Keyser Söze

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The NBA draft is so much about potential, that I'm not sure his draft stock will go up appreciably by staying another year. He certainly has things to work on, and would be better by staying, but that's not how the system works.

I selfishly want him to stay, because he is so fun to watch. But if I had to bet, I'd say he's gone.
His stock will only be hurt by coming back if he doesn't show improvement. With how fast he is currently developing and how much room he still has to improve, I'd be really surprised if he isn't noticeably better next season if he does return. If he is noticeably better next season, his draft stock will absolutely improve.
 

upnorthkid

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Karl Anthony Town, Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Yao Ming, Blake Griffen, Deandre Ayton, Anderw Bogut.


These are just a few and they were all #1 overalls. Good Centers are generally at the very top of the draft. Not saying Oturo matches those players, but centers are VERY common in the first round. Especially ones that can move and chew gum at the same time.
If you’re the top guy, yes. That’s why I’m saying it all depends on if he’s graded out at the top guy. And On top of that, multiple of those guys can shoot outside and are that pick and roll/pick and pop type (KAT, Davis) or defensive stoppers (Oden, Bogut and Ming to lesser extent). He’s not the top guy at his spot (Will be Wiseman). That’s all I’m saying is unless you’re a consensus top dog, you can fall quickly
 

SuperSenior13

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OK, let's look at hard facts instead of speculative intangibles. On the latest NBAdraft.net mock draft, Daniel is listed at #10. #10 seems a bit high to me and I don't see Daniel getting much attention in other mock drafts but let's say he can get drafted at #15 after this season. Most first round picks tend to get three years of guaranteed compensation. Last season's #15 pick received a first year salary of $2,737,600, a second year salary of $2,874,500, and a third year salary of $3,011,400. That's $8,623,600 over 3 seasons. That total should be a bit higher after this season. If one falls to #24, the corresponding 3 year figure is $5,279,000, a difference of $3,344,500.

When it comes to entering the NBA draft as a projected first rounder, you need to strike while the iron is hot. The reason for this the primary attention each season is focused on the highly rated freshmen (the better 5 stars). If they stay healthy and do pretty well in their freshman seasons, they tend to get drafted pretty highly. If Daniel waits until next year, there will be a new class of very highly rated freshmen to compete against as well as this season's highly rated freshmen who for one reason or another decide not to enter the draft.

More often than not, staying in college when you're identified as a hot prospect results in your draft stock being lowered. One of the best recent examples of this is Jared Sullinger formerly of Ohio State. Had he left after his freshman season he might have been been drafted in the top 5 or at least the top 10. He stayed one more year and was drafted #21. There are plenty of other examples if one wishes to do the research.

I place a great deal of value on education and my education has helped me lead a relatively comfortable life, but I never had the opportunity Daniel may have. One doesn't have to forfeit his future education by becoming a professional athlete. Just ask Chris Collinsworth or former Viking and Minnesota Supreme Court justice Allen Page.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the NBA is looking to allow high schoolers to jump to the NBA again. If he has a down junior year/injury and has to play his senior year, he could be in the same class that includes high schoolers making the jump in 2022.
 

Parcival

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I think it's around a 75% chance that he's gone, higher if he continues to dominate in B1G play. Like others have said his draft stock can't really increase all that much after this year and unless he really values his education... he's gone.

There are a couple silver-linings to Oturu making the leap to the NBA. One, it's good to have Gophers in the NBA to represent the program. Pitino can then make the pitch to some of the top-tier local talent that we do indeed get kids into the league. Two, we should hopefully get a quality Grad Transfer to fill in Oturu's minutes, as I personally don't trust Freeman at all.
 

Keyser Söze

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I think it's around a 75% chance that he's gone, higher if he continues to dominate in B1G play. Like others have said his draft stock can't really increase all that much after this year and unless he really values his education... he's gone.
Or if he loves college, or if he really wants to make a run in the NCAA tournament, or if he/scouts disagree with you and think he can improve his stock if he comes back.
 

KyGopherfan

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Another thing to keep in mind is that the NBA is looking to allow high schoolers to jump to the NBA again. If he has a down junior year/injury and has to play his senior year, he could be in the same class that includes high schoolers making the jump in 2022.
This. He gone folks. He'll have a better draft this year than next year. Plus, he's ready. Sure everyone could use more development, but he can get that development while drawing a paycheck too.
 

tjgopher

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I'm surprised people are insisting he needs to improve his outside shooting. Have people been watching? He IS already consistently knocking down the 15-foot jumper than the NBA loves its big men to hit. Like real consistently. That is why his stock is jumping now. He will never be much of a three-point threat, just enough that you have to keep the defender honest. His major point of development is footwork as he gets caught between steps and he travels a lot (more often than its called). The good news is that traveling is not a violation in the NBA.
 
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