News flash: We are underdogs tomorrow @ Penn State

Hollinsanity

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LesBolstad

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Why would't they be? MSU crushed us and PSU beat them handily on a not so neutral court. Actually surprised spread isn't 5-7 range.
 

EG#9

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Badly need this win. Sure there are realistic paths to the tournament without it, but would much rather not need to explore those paths. The Gophers are a whole 1 point underdog after opening a 2 point favorite, they could easily be favored by tipoff tomorrow.

As to why PSU wouldn't be favored by more Les? I am not sure if you are trolling but this PSU team has lost to Albany and George Mason on their home court this year. They had a great win over MSU, but that is their only win of note and if you think the MSU thing is significant...they lost to Northwestern at home a team the Gophers beat on the road.
 

LesBolstad

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Not trolling, just didn't like what I saw Wed. We need to come out and play hard, and not get behind big early.
Mason's the key. If he can make some early buckets, seems to free up everyone else.
 

bga1

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Holy Man

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Penn State is good. They have talent.
Nits are in a similar boat as we are. Pretty young, good talent, and still learning. Let's hope they have a let down after their big win against Sparty. At this point, I think our A game beats theirs, but I would rather seem them at a C.
 

SelectionSunday

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Badly need this win. Sure there are realistic paths to the tournament without it, but would much rather not need to explore those paths. The Gophers are a whole 1 point underdog after opening a 2 point favorite, they could easily be favored by tipoff tomorrow.

As to why PSU wouldn't be favored by more Les? I am not sure if you are trolling but this PSU team has lost to Albany and George Mason on their home court this year. They had a great win over MSU, but that is their only win of note and if you think the MSU thing is significant...they lost to Northwestern at home a team the Gophers beat on the road.
Some teams get better throughout the season, others get worse. It's too simplistic to say, "Well, they lost to Albany and George Mason in Happy Valley, so the Gophers should win". It's not that simple. Comparative scores are quite often useless. It's matchups, and how the teams are playing at that point in time.
 

Winnipegopher

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Some teams get better throughout the season, others get worse. It's too simplistic to say, "Well, they lost to Albany and George Mason in Happy Valley, so the Gophers should win". It's not that simple. Comparative scores are quite often useless. It's matchups, and how the teams are playing at that point in time.
Lines are about betters. Vegas just wants to even out money and make a profit. They are not guessing who will win, they are guessing at what will bring in 50% on each side.

PS I would bet the Gophers vs. PSU but would not bet the house.
 

mplarson7

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Weren't we dogs at Purdue and Northwestern too?

POLLYANNA
 

MNVCGUY

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It is pretty simple and is most likely going to be like the following scenario for pretty much every game for the remainder of the season: We have enough talent to beat anyone in the B1G, we also have enough youth and inexperience to lose to anyone in the B1G.

There are going to be great showings like the one against Purdue and there are going to be duds like the game we just had against MSU. As long as the team avoids those extended losing streaks we should be in great shape to make the tournament. Would be fun to win the conference as well but given how bad this team was last year and how young they are this year nobody should be disappointed if we end up settling somewhere in the upper portion of the conference when it is all said and done.
 

justthefacts

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Lines are about betters. Vegas just wants to even out money and make a profit. They are not guessing who will win, they are guessing at what will bring in 50% on each side.
This is only somewhat true:

a) Compare most lines to the spreads in Sagarin or KenPom. They're very close. Vegas sets most lines based on what the statistical models tell them. And those models don't care about money.

b) Very, very often the line moves in a way that does not reflect the idea of getting 50% of money on one side. If 10,000 people bet $10 on Team A, but 1 guy the books know bets $20,000 on Team B, the line will likely move slightly toward Team B.

c) Sometimes the books even HOPE to take more money on a particular side because they think they know something the public doesn't.

It's a myth that the books strive only to make money via the juice. They take actions to actually win majority of the bets as well.
 

LesBolstad

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This is only somewhat true:

a) Compare most lines to the spreads in Sagarin or KenPom. They're very close. Vegas sets most lines based on what the statistical models tell them. And those models don't care about money.

b) Very, very often the line moves in a way that does not reflect the idea of getting 50% of money on one side. If 10,000 people bet $10 on Team A, but 1 guy the books know bets $20,000 on Team B, the line will likely move slightly toward Team B.

c) Sometimes the books even HOPE to take more money on a particular side because they think they know something the public doesn't.

It's a myth that the books strive only to make money via the juice. They take actions to actually win majority of the bets as well.
Yes. A good example was the football title game. Sportbooks took a bath with Clemson winning.

https://www.seccountry.com/alabama/alabamas-national-championship-loss-clemson-historically-bad-sportsbooks
 
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