You could've been the 90's Nate Silver.That is not true. States aren't independent in political habits. A rising tide lifts all boats and a receding one lowers them. Even a senatorial or congressional race in a single state isn't independent of national sentiment.
Trump won't pull off what he did last time if he loses the national popular vote by 6% or more. According to the analysis by 538, Democrats are more likely than not to win if the popular vote margin exceeds 3%. If Trump loses the national popular vote by 7% instead of 2.1%, you will see that erosion of support reflected in almost every state.
In 1992, I did as simple of a political analysis as I possibly could on a rudimentary spreadsheet. I asked what would happen if 5% of the two-party vote flipped nationally from 1988 to 1992 and that was reflected evenly in every state (of course, it wouldn't work that way in every state). That simple analysis failed to pick the correct winner in only two states and they were in opposite directions. The method picked Clinton to win in Mississippi and Bush to win in New Hampshire. The reverse happened.