New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

howeda7

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That is not true. States aren't independent in political habits. A rising tide lifts all boats and a receding one lowers them. Even a senatorial or congressional race in a single state isn't independent of national sentiment.

Trump won't pull off what he did last time if he loses the national popular vote by 6% or more. According to the analysis by 538, Democrats are more likely than not to win if the popular vote margin exceeds 3%. If Trump loses the national popular vote by 7% instead of 2.1%, you will see that erosion of support reflected in almost every state.

In 1992, I did as simple of a political analysis as I possibly could on a rudimentary spreadsheet. I asked what would happen if 5% of the two-party vote flipped nationally from 1988 to 1992 and that was reflected evenly in every state (of course, it wouldn't work that way in every state). That simple analysis failed to pick the correct winner in only two states and they were in opposite directions. The method picked Clinton to win in Mississippi and Bush to win in New Hampshire. The reverse happened.
You could've been the 90's Nate Silver.
 

howeda7

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Inspite of all these fake polls designed to influence versus inform, Trump is still doing better in the battleground states this election than what was happening in the MSM's attempt to get Hillary elected back in 2016. This has got to have the lib's heads exploding (e.g., what's happening on this board). They've created fake stories about Trump, that the minions believe hook-line-and-sinker, shut down the country to try to stop Trump's economy from continuing to soar, impeached him over a fake hoax, and now all these fake polls, and Trump is still outdoing what was happening in 2016.

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When you're screaming about fake polls, you know you've lost.
 

howeda7

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WOW - Thanks for educating me Jack Webb, I didn't know that until now!!!

I thought you would have been bright enough to ascertain from my posts that I am a -

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Whilst this post of yours indicates you might be either condensing know-it-all or this guy (I don't 100% yet and won't spend anymore time trying to suss it out) -

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Foul. Only KGF is allowed to post cartoons here. He's going to be upset.
 

howeda7

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It's what they published in their poll, I think it was like on page 9 or such (going from memory on that).
From what I saw this morning, in the CNN poll, the party composition went from 33-30 Dem in their last poll to 33-28 Dem in this poll. Biden's margin went from 4 to 16. How do you explain the other 10% of the swing?
 

Gopher_In_NYC

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It's what they published in their poll, I think it was like on page 9 or such (going from memory on that).
Thank you for your reply and that is very disappointing if correct, especially after 2016.

I used to work in the research industry and we did a lot of political polling. In 2016 our main client was one firm who directly worked with the RNC - no one asks your politics, as business, is business.

IN 2016 the issue with the incorrect polls in WI, MI and PA was that they didn't segment and weigh the sample for non-educated whites (bad joke) vs. college educated whites - there had never been that big of a split between the groups before, so no one caught it. If you see results by other races in a poll, they don't have that subsegment as the split, as it isn't statistically significant.
 

Livingat45north

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Thank you for your reply and that is very disappointing if correct, especially after 2016.

I used to work in the research industry and we did a lot of political polling. In 2016 our main client was one firm who directly worked with the RNC - no one asks your politics, as business, is business.

IN 2016 the issue with the incorrect polls in WI, MI and PA was that they didn't segment and weigh the sample for non-educated whites (bad joke) vs. college educated whites - there had never been that big of a split between the groups before, so no one caught it. If you see results by other races in a poll, they don't have that subsegment as the split, as it isn't statistically significant.
Hey, look at that, a meaningful post from a lib. Thanks. Nice of you to share the insight. Yes, I can't imagine how in this climate a poll can be accurate. Even if you can get a hold of your random sample of people (no more land lines for everyone), how can you possibly tell their race, age and background. Anyone can say anything. The only poll that I know of that has called a presidential election accurately every time, since it started in 1996, has been the Gallup poll asking voters who they think will win the election. That poll this time has Trump winning by a landslide: 56% to 40%.

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howeda7

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Buck up Fellas. Biden won't hold a 16 point lead for long. In a week, when polls show him "only" up 10, you can post excitedly about polls "tightening" and how it's 2016 all over again, etc.
 

golf

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You only get one chance to vote for Socialism, after that happens, there's no going back. Ask Venezuela how that turned out for them.
Yeah, the dem party has swung way left as shown by kneeling before the flag at the dem convention and leaving God out of the pledge at the dem convention. Just one example but would have never happened even during the obama years. We see what is happening in our large cities in our large cities and red states under dem leadership.

If Biden wins, the question will be did it happen because media has flooded the space with misinformation or because the left path is the way the american people prefer to go. I hope it is the former.
 

justthefacts

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Yeah, the dem party has swung way left as shown by kneeling before the flag at the dem convention and leaving God out of the pledge at the dem convention. Just one example but would have never happened even during the obama years. We see what is happening in our large cities in our large cities and red states under dem leadership.

If Biden wins, the question will be did it happen because media has flooded the space with misinformation or because the left path is the way the american people prefer to go. I hope it is the former.

Note that Melania didn't even pretend. Would probably break her oath to Slovenia.
 

Livingat45north

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Note that Melania didn't even pretend. Would probably break her oath to Slovenia.
So you've just posted a double-lie. The Dems did leave out "Under God" several times in their convention, and in the video "Under God" was spoken. Even so, why does that matter so much to you? You continually post complete lies that any rational person would know are lies. You continue to jump on conspiracy theories and parrot what the MSM tells you to think. Certainly you know by now, after 4 years, that the MSM is completely making stuff up, big stuff. Like the entire Russian Collusion hoax, yet you continue to jump on whatever the MSM says and treat them as though they're telling the truth. After all this time, why? Is it just purely emotional, are you driven by a hatred of Donald Trump so you'll rejoice anytime someone random tweeter posts something negative and think "yes, we've got 'em this time"? Are the policies that a politician supports completely immaterial to you, that you only worry about what any rational person would say are ridiculous items, such as trying to lip read what someone is saying during the pledge of allegiance? Why do you ignore the big issues that will completely change the lives of Americans (e.g., stacking the supreme court) but focus on such ridiculously small and meaningless items, like was Melenia's lips moving during the pledge of allegiance and then concluding it was because she's an immigrant?
 

golf

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Just to be clear, it's cool when Dear Leader does it, but not random DNC remote caucus meetings? What about Mrs Dear Leader?

I will stop and take a breath at times as well during the pledge and thus skip a few words. 100% that is what happened here.

My point was that dem convention would not have left out those words in the pledge or kneeled during the anthem during the obama years. Party has turned hard left.

Frankly, am a but surprised you are arguing this, thought you would be celebrating it?
 

golf

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Really really really dumb. Nice going JTF. howie level post.
I have said this before but dems cant argue the merits so will argue a fringe point and attempt to draw an equivalence. In this case, of course trump didnt leave out thosr words intentionally and of course melania usually recites the pledge. However, in lieu of being able to argue the merits, dems will attempt to find something on the fringe that will distract from the truth. See this all the time with White House Press Corps as well.
 

Wally

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Yeah, the dem party has swung way left as shown by kneeling before the flag at the dem convention and leaving God out of the pledge at the dem convention. Just one example but would have never happened even during the obama years. We see what is happening in our large cities in our large cities and red states under dem leadership.

If Biden wins, the question will be did it happen because media has flooded the space with misinformation or because the left path is the way the american people prefer to go. I hope it is the former.
Are you rejecting your Socialist social security payments and Medicare coverage?
 

justthefacts

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So you've just posted a double-lie. The Dems did leave out "Under God" several times in their convention, and in the video "Under God" was spoken. Even so, why does that matter so much to you? You continually post complete lies that any rational person would know are lies. You continue to jump on conspiracy theories and parrot what the MSM tells you to think. Certainly you know by now, after 4 years, that the MSM is completely making stuff up, big stuff. Like the entire Russian Collusion hoax, yet you continue to jump on whatever the MSM says and treat them as though they're telling the truth. After all this time, why? Is it just purely emotional, are you driven by a hatred of Donald Trump so you'll rejoice anytime someone random tweeter posts something negative and think "yes, we've got 'em this time"? Are the policies that a politician supports completely immaterial to you, that you only worry about what any rational person would say are ridiculous items, such as trying to lip read what someone is saying during the pledge of allegiance? Why do you ignore the big issues that will completely change the lives of Americans (e.g., stacking the supreme court) but focus on such ridiculously small and meaningless items, like was Melenia's lips moving during the pledge of allegiance and then concluding it was because she's an immigrant?
A) golf is the one who brought up the pledge
B) Someone else said "under God," not Trump.
 
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