New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

cjbfbp

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Hillary had a 10% lead in MN the week before the 2016 election. She won by 1.5%.
Yes, we all know Hillary had a late stretch crash. No need to rehash all the explanations for that. But, a few things are different this time:

1) Trump is an incumbent with a record that speaks for itself. Except for a few weeks at the beginning of his presidency, he has been underwater in approval ratings for his entire tenure. In 2016, it wasn't unreasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt about his professed intentions but he's told so many lies over the last 4 years that his credibility is shot with all but the true believers.

2) We have a different candidate. He may not be as sharp as Hillary but he's not nearly as unpopular either.

3) Hillary lost in 2016 because of the Democratic undervote that was particularly strong in the midwest. The primary reasons for that were 1) anger and resentment among the Bernie supporters and 2) a lot of voters just didn't believe that Trump would win. #1 isn't much of a problem this time and no Democratic voter is going to assume #2 anymore.
 

TruthSeeker

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Yes, we all know Hillary had a late stretch crash. No need to rehash all the explanations for that. But, a few things are different this time:

1) Trump is an incumbent with a record that speaks for itself. Except for a few weeks at the beginning of his presidency, he has been underwater in approval ratings for his entire tenure. In 2016, it wasn't unreasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt about his professed intentions but he's told so many lies over the last 4 years that his credibility is shot with all but the true believers.

2) We have a different candidate. He may not be as sharp as Hillary but he's not nearly as unpopular either.

3) Hillary lost in 2016 because of the Democratic undervote that was particularly strong in the midwest. The primary reasons for that were 1) anger and resentment among the Bernie supporters and 2) a lot of voters just didn't believe that Trump would win. #1 isn't much of a problem this time and no Democratic voter is going to assume #2 anymore.
4. There are less undecided voters in 2020.

5. Comey happened after many final polls were conducted.
 

cjbfbp

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The perception that Trump is a good debater is nonsense. Hillary clobbered him in all three debates in 2016. Biden is going to do the same because:

- he knows the issues far better than Trump;
- he is significantly more articulate than Trump;
- he is less prone to make misstatements and say stupid things than Trump;
- most people will like his overall message about bringing the country together.

The only thing Trump knows how to do in debates is throw red meat to his supporters for them to chew on.



Gallup Poll: Who Won Each Debate in 2016

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in [last/Wednesday] night's debate -- [Hillary Clinton (or) Donald Trump]?

��
Hillary ClintonDonald TrumpCandidate advantage
%%(pct. pts.)
All Debate Viewers
Third debate6031Clinton +29
Second debate5335Clinton +18
First debate6127Clinton +34
Independents
Third debate5835Clinton +23
Second debate5132Clinton +19
First debate5930Clinton +29
Among U.S. adults who watched or listened to each debate
Gallup; post-debate polls based on interviewing conducted Sept. 27-28, 2016, Oct. 10-11, 2016, and Oct. 20-21, 2016
I don't see Biden "clobbering" Trump in the debates to the same extent Clinton did (at least in the 1st and 3rd). Clinton is a very good debater; that is well known by anyone who has watched her with any sense of objectivity. Obama credited her with making him a much sharper candidate in 2008.

Biden doesn't have to rise to the same debate level as Clinton. He just has to show that he is relatively honest, passionate, caring, and has a decent grasp of facts and policy.

I agree that Trump isn't a good debater. One could be astonished that some think that he is good at that until you realize the mentality of some in the Republican base. Saying things like "lock her up...crooked Hillary... little Marco...sleepy Joe...and lyin' Ted Cruz" qualify as great debating lines for many of them. They view politics like professional wrestling or roller derby fans.
 

cjbfbp

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4. There are less undecided voters in 2020.

5. Comey happened after many final polls were conducted.
Yes, I didn't want to mention Comey because that would be rehashing the past. You're very right about #4, though. Thank you for adding that to the list of important differences!
 

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Mormons rejected Trump as blasphemous. Now he likely can’t win without them.

In 2016, Mormons rejected Donald Trump in numbers unheard of for a Republican nominee — viewing the thrice-married, immigrant-bashing Republican as an affront to their values. Mormon support for the Republican ticket dropped from 80 percent in 2004 and 78 percent in 2012, to 61 percent in 2016, even as most other Christians moved further to the right, according to Pew.

In 2020, the president is going all-out to change their minds — a little-noticed effort that could make or break him in Arizona and Nevada, home to more than a half-million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints combined. Joe Biden's campaign, sensing an unlikely opening for a Democrat, is also targeting Mormons in the pair of Western swing states.

Some Mormons in Arizona have formed their own political action committee, earnestly named: “Arizona Republicans Who Believe In Treating Others With Respect.” The most prominent Mormon politician in the country, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), has said he will not vote for Trump, though he has not endorsed Biden.Biden’s advisers argue that his message of restoring civility will appeal to LDS members who, like Romney and Flake, are offended by Trump’s conduct over the past four years.

A Biden official conceded that Trump will likely improve on his 2016 performance among Mormons, but that the Democrat's goal is to significantly limit those gains. Some longtime LDS Democratic organizers said Biden has already improved on Hillary Clinton’s efforts, which they said were too focused on Utah. “The Biden campaign seems much more aware of the Latter-day Saint diaspora in the Mountain West and the Atlantic South,” said Rob Taber, a national co-chair of LDS Dems.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/13/trump-biden-mormons-church-412234
 

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The ways Democrats could retake the Senate majority, explained

Overall, Senate Republicans are defending more turf: 23 seats (mostly in red states), compared to the 12 Senate Democrats who are up for reelection. Democrats need to win back at least three seats to reclaim the Senate majority, but they are also defending Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, where Trump has a 28-point net approval rating. If Jones loses, that means Democrats need to win four seats and the White House (where their party’s vice president could vote to break ties in the Senate), or net five seats without the White House advantage.

Before the coronavirus hit, four states looked highly competitive for Democrats: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. Now several more seats are in play for Democrats — including Montana, Iowa, and Georgia, and Democratic candidates have even put other reach states like South Carolina in play. Republicans, meanwhile, are going on offense in just two states: Alabama and Michigan.

Colorado

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Cory Gardner, first elected to the Senate in 2014. Gardner reliably votes with Trump and Republicans, although he has split with the Trump administration on issues including marijuana decriminalization and immigration reform.

Who is the Democrat? Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who led the state from 2011 to 2019. Hickenlooper cuts more of a centrist profile, but he presided over some progressive changes in his state, such as marijuana legalization and gun control laws including universal background checks in Colorado.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.


Arizona’s special election

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Martha McSally, who narrowly lost her 2018 race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally was appointed to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain in 2018.

Who is the Democrat? Mark Kelly, former US astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords, the former US representative for Arizona and gun control activist.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate it Lean Democratic.


Maine

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Susan Collins, in office since 1997.

Who is the Democrat? Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.


North Carolina

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Thom Tillis, elected to the Senate in 2014 and former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.

Who is the Democrat? Cal Cunningham, a former North Carolina state senator and veteran.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.

https://www.vox.com/21403958/most-competitive-senate-races-2020


 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Yes, we all know Hillary had a late stretch crash. No need to rehash all the explanations for that. But, a few things are different this time:

1) Trump is an incumbent with a record that speaks for itself. Except for a few weeks at the beginning of his presidency, he has been underwater in approval ratings for his entire tenure. In 2016, it wasn't unreasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt about his professed intentions but he's told so many lies over the last 4 years that his credibility is shot with all but the true believers.

2) We have a different candidate. He may not be as sharp as Hillary but he's not nearly as unpopular either.

3) Hillary lost in 2016 because of the Democratic undervote that was particularly strong in the midwest. The primary reasons for that were 1) anger and resentment among the Bernie supporters and 2) a lot of voters just didn't believe that Trump would win. #1 isn't much of a problem this time and no Democratic voter is going to assume #2 anymore.
You could be right about most of this. I think republicans and independents who lean right are not represented well in polling and approval ratings.

It all comes down to the independent vote, and it'll be very interesting to see how it plays out in the swing states with democratic governors who have kept things shut down for far too long, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc.

I think the dems are underestimating the independents who know Trump is full of shit, but can also see through the bs from the media, know the risks of COVID and want to make their own choices, are done with the limitations on businesses, don't want the police to be defunded, and are sick of the violence and looting.

Are they going to vote for a party that continues to support those things, or vote against them?
 

cjbfbp

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I think the dems are underestimating the independents who know Trump is full of shit, but can also see through the bs from the media, know the risks of COVID and want to make their own choices, are done with the limitations on businesses, don't want the police to be defunded, and are sick of the violence and looting.

Are they going to vote for a party that continues to support those things, or vote against them?
Decisions about "defunding" the police have little to do with presidents. Some have argued that Trump and the congressional Republicans are de facto defunding the police already as a result of their refusal to go along with the congressional Democrats to provide additional funding to strapped state and local governments as part of the COVID relief package.

Rational non-partisans do not believe that Democratic politicians are supporting "violence and looting." The fact that you do shows that you're not one of those.

As far as what voters are going to do, I'd say our best estimate is what they have declared in polling. If you'd rather arrive at that answer by posing and answering your own questions instead of looking at polling, then knock yourself out.
 
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And of course Dumbo Donald isn't running as the challenger this time, although God Bless Him, he's trying his best to:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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cjbfbp

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The ways Democrats could retake the Senate majority, explained

Overall, Senate Republicans are defending more turf: 23 seats (mostly in red states), compared to the 12 Senate Democrats who are up for reelection. Democrats need to win back at least three seats to reclaim the Senate majority, but they are also defending Sen. Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, where Trump has a 28-point net approval rating. If Jones loses, that means Democrats need to win four seats and the White House (where their party’s vice president could vote to break ties in the Senate), or net five seats without the White House advantage.

Before the coronavirus hit, four states looked highly competitive for Democrats: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. Now several more seats are in play for Democrats — including Montana, Iowa, and Georgia, and Democratic candidates have even put other reach states like South Carolina in play. Republicans, meanwhile, are going on offense in just two states: Alabama and Michigan.

Colorado

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Cory Gardner, first elected to the Senate in 2014. Gardner reliably votes with Trump and Republicans, although he has split with the Trump administration on issues including marijuana decriminalization and immigration reform.

Who is the Democrat? Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who led the state from 2011 to 2019. Hickenlooper cuts more of a centrist profile, but he presided over some progressive changes in his state, such as marijuana legalization and gun control laws including universal background checks in Colorado.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.


Arizona’s special election

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Martha McSally, who narrowly lost her 2018 race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. McSally was appointed to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain in 2018.

Who is the Democrat? Mark Kelly, former US astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords, the former US representative for Arizona and gun control activist.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate it Lean Democratic.


Maine

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Susan Collins, in office since 1997.

Who is the Democrat? Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.


North Carolina

Who is the Republican?
Sen. Thom Tillis, elected to the Senate in 2014 and former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.

Who is the Democrat? Cal Cunningham, a former North Carolina state senator and veteran.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.

https://www.vox.com/21403958/most-competitive-senate-races-2020
Those are the most likely senate pick ups, but two others probably can be rated as either toss ups or slightly republican leaning: Montana and Iowa.

Of course, it would take a minor miracle for Doug Jones to win in AL, so the Dems need to pick up 4 of those 6 if they win the presidency. I don't see any other Democratic senator who appears particularly vulnerable.

I guess there's always the possibility of a huge upset that comes out of the nowhere like the two Democrats who won congressional seats in Oklahoma and South Carolina in 2018.
 

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Rational non-partisans do not believe that Democratic politicians are supporting "violence and looting." The fact that you do shows that you're not one of those.
Then why don't they put a stop to it? Democratic mayors and governors have let the violence and looting carry on all summer, while Trump has offered national assistance to put an end to it.
 

justthefacts

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You could be right about most of this. I think republicans and independents who lean right are not represented well in polling and approval ratings.

It all comes down to the independent vote, and it'll be very interesting to see how it plays out in the swing states with democratic governors who have kept things shut down for far too long, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc.

I think the dems are underestimating the independents who know Trump is full of shit, but can also see through the bs from the media, know the risks of COVID and want to make their own choices, are done with the limitations on businesses, don't want the police to be defunded, and are sick of the violence and looting.

Are they going to vote for a party that continues to support those things, or vote against them?
Everything I've read says that undecideds broke for Trump, which was enough to get him the victory. The good news for Biden is that there are fewer undecideds now.

September 19, 2016 was 50 days before the election, and the RCP average had it at 44.9 Clinton to 44.0 Trump, for a total of 88.9% of the voters that had decided on one of those two. The average today is 50.5 to 43.1 for a total of 93.6.

If you assume 55% of the remaining voters go for Trump, which is actually a higher number than 2016, and you assume only 40% go for Biden (a lower number than Clinton got,) you're still at 46.6 for Trump and 53.1 for Biden.

The big question mark is 3rd parties. They *seem* to be less of a factor this year than 2016, but who knows.

Overall, there is basically no way to look at the polls and decide that 2016's example applies, but there are ways to look at the polls and decide that Trump has a good chance to win.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Of course I have no doubt that all of the women who so badly wanted to see the first US female president in history are going to turn out in droves to cast their vote for the groper and hair sniffer. Those votes are as good as a lock
 

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Well...this is different. 🤣
It is different, I actually almost voted for Trump last time, this time there is no chance.
For the 2016 primary I told my wife I wanted to put a Trump sign and a Bernie sign in our yard. Never did because neither inspired me enough. This year I did put a Yang sign in my yard and bumper stickers on my truck. Yang is the first and only campaign I have ever given money to...
 

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Then why don't they put a stop to it? Democratic mayors and governors have let the violence and looting carry on all summer, while Trump has offered national assistance to put an end to it.
I just heard from someone in Portland that the protests basically stoped once the feds left....I don't know if they are correct but that's from someone who lives there, as I said before I don't really pay much attention.
 

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Everything I've read says that undecideds broke for Trump, which was enough to get him the victory. The good news for Biden is that there are fewer undecideds now.

September 19, 2016 was 50 days before the election, and the RCP average had it at 44.9 Clinton to 44.0 Trump, for a total of 88.9% of the voters that had decided on one of those two. The average today is 50.5 to 43.1 for a total of 93.6.

If you assume 55% of the remaining voters go for Trump, which is actually a higher number than 2016, and you assume only 40% go for Biden (a lower number than Clinton got,) you're still at 46.6 for Trump and 53.1 for Biden.

The big question mark is 3rd parties. They *seem* to be less of a factor this year than 2016, but who knows.

Overall, there is basically no way to look at the polls and decide that 2016's example applies, but there are ways to look at the polls and decide that Trump has a good chance to win.
Good point on the third party.

I saw Steve Knonacik on Morning Joe (he's a true nerd and embraces it - very cool) and he pointed out the difference this year and in 2016 was that ~6% of the vote was siphoned off then between Gary Jonson ~4% and Jill Stein - 2%; there are no viable third party candidates this election and this will be basically a two party election. Makes sense to me, I haven't heard any noise on that front this time around.

I also think that although the hardcore Bernie/A.O.C. supporters aren't super enthusiastic for Biden, they will be motivated to vote because of Dumbo Donald and they realize this country will be in tatters if he get reelected.
 

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Of course I have no doubt that all of the women who so badly wanted to see the first US female president in history are going to turn out in droves to cast their vote for the groper and hair sniffer. Those votes are as good as a lock
[/QUOTE

He's only winning with non-college educated women - the only female demo he is winning.
 

justthefacts

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Of course I have no doubt that all of the women who so badly wanted to see the first US female president in history are going to turn out in droves to cast their vote for the groper and hair sniffer. Those votes are as good as a lock
Exit polls, 2016:




Closest current poll:



 

KillerGopherFan

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It is different, I actually almost voted for Trump last time, this time there is no chance.
For the 2016 primary I told my wife I wanted to put a Trump sign and a Bernie sign in our yard. Never did because neither inspired me enough. This year I did put a Yang sign in my yard and bumper stickers on my truck. Yang is the first and only campaign I have ever given money to...
That’s a nice story. What’s it got to do with the point that Ogee made?
 

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I just heard from someone in Portland that the protests basically stoped once the feds left....I don't know if they are correct but that's from someone who lives there, as I said before I don't really pay much attention.
Well, that was reported by the media. Of course, that was reported before the feds had even left (honest mistake by the MSM). To boot, the protesting never did stop, nor did the looting. This isn't even debatable and is being reported by many outlets. You should tell your source to get out more often. Hell, there was even a murder not long ago during one of the nightly "protests" that apparently stopped.
 

cjbfbp

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Of course I have no doubt that all of the women who so badly wanted to see the first US female president in history are going to turn out in droves to cast their vote for the groper and hair sniffer. Those votes are as good as a lock
When are you going to understand that Trump is a tremendous motivator for those who want him removed from office?

NEGATIVE PARTISANSHIP is the thing now.
 

cjbfbp

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Then why don't they put a stop to it? Democratic mayors and governors have let the violence and looting carry on all summer, while Trump has offered national assistance to put an end to it.
I don't know. Why don't you ask the police in those cities? Of course, looters do their jobs pretty quickly and they don't announce that they are going to loot a particular location ahead of time.

By the way, this is a presidential election, not an election for local sheriff. Neither you nor I are going to be voting for any of those sheriffs/chiefs, mayors, or governors this time around. This is a choice between Biden and Trump, period. And I'm not sure what Biden can do other than to say "Don't loot and burn." As a private citizen, he doesn't have any governmental personnel at his disposal.
 

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I don't know. Why don't you ask the police in those cities? Of course, looters do their jobs pretty quickly and they don't announce that they are going to loot a particular location ahead of time.

By the way, this is a presidential election, not an election for local sheriff. Neither you nor I are going to be voting for any of those sheriffs/chiefs, mayors, or governors this time around. This is a choice between Biden and Trump, period. And I'm not sure what Biden can do other than to say "Don't loot and burn." As a private citizen, he doesn't have any governmental personnel at his disposal.
I agree that local elections matter far more than presidential elections.

But you're not just voting for one person, you're also voting for national polices. If you see local democrats supporting the aforementioned policies throughout the country, why would you expect anything different from the leader?

Until March 2020, people took freedom for granted in this country. Now we've seen how quickly democrats are willing to suppress citizens freedoms, and suppress them for as long as possible. Meanwhile most republicans continue to try to restore them as quickly as possible, or never took them away.

When you have two incoherent, terrible candidates to choose from, people are going to base their vote far more on policy than those two people.
 

cjbfbp

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Until March 2020, people took freedom for granted in this country. Now we've seen how quickly democrats are willing to suppress citizens freedoms, and suppress them for as long as possible. Meanwhile most republicans continue to try to restore them as quickly as possible, or never took them away.
If you're talking about the freedom to infect people, and to be infected, with a damaging, and even potentially fatal, disease, then I'll pass on the unrestricted right to that freedom. You have a la-dee-da attitude about COVID because the people you know who had the disease were young and apparently didn't suffer much. There are plenty of people who haven't been hospitalized but still haven't returned to normal months after their so called recoveries. Read about them. They're called "long-haulers." Add in the 190,000+ who have died and the three times that many who have been hospitalized and maybe you can realize that this isn't a disease to be cavalier about.

If we would have taken this seriously enough at the beginning, then maybe we would be in much better shape now. Unfortunately, Walz and too many other governors were too wishy washy to take the drastic steps necessary for fear of pissing off dopey putzes with petty senses of "freedom."
 

Wally

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I agree that local elections matter far more than presidential elections.

But you're not just voting for one person, you're also voting for national polices. If you see local democrats supporting the aforementioned policies throughout the country, why would you expect anything different from the leader?

Until March 2020, people took freedom for granted in this country. Now we've seen how quickly democrats are willing to suppress citizens freedoms, and suppress them for as long as possible. Meanwhile most republicans continue to try to restore them as quickly as possible, or never took them away.

When you have two incoherent, terrible candidates to choose from, people are going to base their vote far more on policy than those two people.
I don't feel Republicans support freedom, they support freedom to make money but very few other freedoms...
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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If you're talking about the freedom to infect people, and to be infected, with a damaging, and even potentially fatal, disease, then I'll pass on the unrestricted right to that freedom. You have a la-dee-da attitude about COVID because the people you know who had the disease were young and apparently didn't suffer much. There are plenty of people who haven't been hospitalized but still haven't returned to normal months after their so called recoveries. Read about them. They're called "long-haulers." Add in the 190,000+ who have died and the three times that many who have been hospitalized and maybe you can realize that this isn't a disease to be cavalier about.

If we would have taken this seriously enough at the beginning, then maybe we would be in much better shape now. Unfortunately, Walz and too many other governors were too wishy washy to take the drastic steps necessary for fear of pissing off dopey putzes with petty senses of "freedom."

People can take any precaution they want to protect themselves from being infected. The majority of people don't know anyone who's had difficulties with the disease. The "long haulers" you speak of are rare, and can happen with any virus. The data gets clearer everyday, and the at risk age groups haven't changed from the beginning. Yet just stay home for 2 weeks, turned into 2 months, and now over 6 months of business crushing restrictions, with only one person making these decisions in most cases.

Why don't you focus on the 10s of millions who've had the disease and have zero issues, or didn't even know they had it? Why don't you focus on the 10s of millions who've lost their jobs and livelihoods for a disease that has an average age of death higher than the average life expectancy?

Walz is one of the governors in the midwest who clamped down the hardest, the earliest. I'm not sure how you consider that wishy washy?
 

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Of course I have no doubt that all of the women who so badly wanted to see the first US female president in history are going to turn out in droves to cast their vote for the groper and hair sniffer. Those votes are as good as a lock
Trump grabbed you by the pu$$y, didn't he?
 

Donovan

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I don't feel Republicans support freedom, they support freedom to make money but very few other freedoms...
Outside of freedom to abortions and drugs, what freedoms don’t Republicans support? One I can think of is marriage outside of one man and one woman. However, even that has changed the last few years.

Republicans I know support freedom of: speech, religion, right to bear arms, association, conducting business, etc...
 

Go4Broke

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I don't feel Republicans support freedom, they support freedom to make money but very few other freedoms...
Agreed. Right wingers support their own freedom but no one else's freedom. They're perfectly happy to assert their rights to pollute the air they breath and the water they drink and couldn't care less about the rights of others to clean air and water. And they demand the right to use their property and operate their businesses any way they see fit without being burdened by government regulations that protect the rights of their employees, customers, neighboring property owners, and the general public to be protected from activities that negatively affect them.
 
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