New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

KillerGopherFan

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Given everything, this may be the single worst poll for Trump that I've seen so far.


A good reminder not to take any single poll as that meaningful
Yeah, and that’s the inherent problem with all state polls, while national polls don’t reflect the reality of the electoral college.

State polls are inaccurate and volatile b/c of low/poor sampling.

Add into that the many conservatives’ discomfort about being judged or with expressing their support for Trump and/or against social justice narratives, and you have a recipe for complete surprise on Election Day.
 
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Go4Broke

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Given everything, this may be the single worst poll for Trump that I've seen so far.


A good reminder not to take any single poll as that meaningful

I agree. And I think this might be the second worst poll for Trump so far because USC Dornsife is one of the very few national polls that predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016. The USC polling methods are unique and they are doing it exactly the same way as they did four years ago.


USC Dornsife9/1 - 9/72508 LV--5242Biden +10
 

KillerGopherFan

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Guess they need a safe space....
No. People don’t need a safe space. They just don’t go advertising their opinions b/c people don’t like to be judged whether it’s legitimate or not. Like being called a racist for not agreeing that systemic racism exists on a large scale.

They also don’t like to have their property destroyed, which lefties have shown a willingness to do to attempt to make people conform.

You must be so proud of the left.
 

cjbfbp

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I agree. And I think this might be the second worst poll for Trump so far because USC Dornsife is one of the very few national polls that predicted Trump would beat Hillary in 2016. The USC polling methods are unique and they are doing it exactly the same way as they did four years ago.


USC Dornsife9/1 - 9/72508 LV--5242Biden +10
I'm glad to see the their findings are reversed but I still don't think that their success in 2016 necessarily dictates that they will be the most predictive in 2020. There's a long list of pollsters who were the most accurate in one election only to be less accurate in another. I still prefer to look at averages rather than any single poll. Chances are that some pollsters will do better than the most commonly cited averages but we don't know which ones will do that yet.

The current RCP average is 7.1 Biden. 538's is 7.5 Biden. The most encouraging number from those averages is Trump's average number: 42.8% on RCP and 43.1% on 538. Those are very close to the 42% number given in your poll. Trump hasn't exceeded an average of 44% since mid-April on 538 and hasn't exceeded that mark since late March to early April on RCP. We may be living in a chaotic environment with lots of sound and fury but the presidential race numbers have remained quite stable. I figure that Trump gets 2% to 3% more added in the final election numbers but that won't be enough (no one expects a big 3rd party vote this year).

The right wingers on this site seem to be banking on a disastrous Biden debate performance to close the gap. I don't think they'll get that and, in any event, the debates very well could matter even less in this election than they did in 2016.
 

Wally

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No. People don’t need a safe space. They just don’t go advertising their opinions b/c people don’t like to be judged whether it’s legitimate or not. Like being called a racist for not agreeing that systemic racism exists on a large scale.

They also don’t like to have their property destroyed, which lefties have shown a willingness to do to attempt to make people conform.

You must be so proud of the left.
There is wide scale discrimination, there is. Like when I was working a summer construction job, black guy drives bobcat to concrete truck, driver refused to unload concrete with out payment ahead of time, never seen this before. White guy on crew goes and talks to him and like magic we have our concrete without paying.... It's shit like that day in day out that drives people nuts.
 

Spoofin

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There is wide scale discrimination, there is. Like when I was working a summer construction job, black guy drives bobcat to concrete truck, driver refused to unload concrete with out payment ahead of time, never seen this before. White guy on crew goes and talks to him and like magic we have our concrete without paying.... It's shit like that day in day out that drives people nuts.
That is a pretty sh!tty story. Most certainly an issue. However, a better comparison to today's mentality would be if after that there was a national declaration that all concrete truck drivers are racist. There are bad seeds in all walks of life.
 

howeda7

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Given everything, this may be the single worst poll for Trump that I've seen so far.


A good reminder not to take any single poll as that meaningful
Hard to believe an OH poll with Biden up 4 while a PA poll with Biden up 2 on the same day (different pollsters). Needless to say, Biden has many paths to 270 and Trump has one.
 

howeda7

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Yeah, and that’s the inherent problem with all state polls, while national polls don’t reflect the reality of the electoral college.

State polls are inaccurate and volatile b/c of low/poor sampling.

Add into that the many conservatives’ discomfort about being judged or with expressing their support for Trump and/or against social justice narratives, and you have a recipe complete surprise on Election Day.
Keep wishin and hopin!

Why are there so many more Trump signs if Trumpsters are "too shy" to tell an anonymous pollster/computer who they will vote for?
 

KillerGopherFan

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Keep wishin and hopin!

Why are there so many more Trump signs if Trumpsters are "too shy" to tell an anonymous pollster/computer who they will vote for?
I should’ve said “complete surprise for some”. Lefties. Nothing will surprise me, but you’ve got your heart set on a Biden victory.
 

justthefacts

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No. People don’t need a safe space. They just don’t go advertising their opinions b/c people don’t like to be judged whether it’s legitimate or not. Like being called a racist for not agreeing that systemic racism exists on a large scale.

They also don’t like to have their property destroyed, which lefties have shown a willingness to do to attempt to make people conform.

You must be so proud of the left.
It's weird that all these people who don't feel comfortable expressing their opinions answer political polls.
 

Go4Broke

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The right wingers on this site seem to be banking on a disastrous Biden debate performance to close the gap. I don't think they'll get that and, in any event, the debates very well could matter even less in this election than they did in 2016.
The right wingers on this site are dreaming. Trump's debating style is going to make Biden look like the most knowledgeable, rational, and reasonable politician in America. Since Trump never reads anything he doesn't know the issues beyond a couple of sound bites designed to appeal only to his base. Biden has gotten up close and personal with political issues for most of his adult life. He knows them far better than most politicians. Even if he makes a few verbal slip-ups Trump's bluster and obvious lies are not going to appeal to independents who still haven't made up their minds. Biden is going to do just fine in the debates.
 
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Wally

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The right wingers on this site are dreaming. Trump's debating style is going to make Biden look like the most knowledgeable, rational, and reasonable politician in America. Since Trump never read anything he doesn't know the issues beyond a couple of sound bites designed to appeal only to his base. Bison has has gotten up close and personal with political issues for most of his adult life. He knows them far better than most politicians. Even if he makes a few verbal slip-ups Trump's bluster and obvious lies are not going to appeal to independents who still haven't made up their minds. Biden is going to do just fine in the debates.
Hope you are correct, I am not so confident
 

cjbfbp

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Hard to believe an OH poll with Biden up 4 while a PA poll with Biden up 2 on the same day (different pollsters). Needless to say, Biden has many paths to 270 and Trump has one.
Since PA is my home state, I retain some interest in that one. PA has been concerning. Recently I went back and looked at some of the vote from 2016. In those midwestern states where the vote was close (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), the results in those places were not so much the case of Trump outperforming Romney as they were the case of Clinton underperforming Obama. Perhaps not coincidentally, these were all states won by Bernie in the primaries. PA was different. Clinton had about 65,000 fewer votes there than Obama in 2012 (out of almost 6 million cast) whereas Trump had almost 300,000 more votes than Romney. Clearly, Trump did manage a significant combination of bringing out new voters and getting voters to switch from Obama to him in PA.

That's why I'm not so surprised that Michigan and Wisconsin look pretty good for Biden in polling data. With Clinton not on the ballot and resentment from Bernie supporters not much of an issue in this campaign, I expect those two states to come back to the fold. I also expect Minnesota to continue its streak for the same reason. Trump received only about 2,500 more votes than Romney in MN while Clinton received about 180,000 votes fewer than Obama.

Florida also is still concerning. While both 2016 candidates outperformed their 2012 predecessors' numbers there, Trump's increase was significantly larger. One place where Clinton outperformed Obama by significantly more than Trump outperformed Romney was Arizona and that state is showing a small, but consistent, Democratic edge in polls.
 

cjbfbp

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It's weird that all these people who don't feel comfortable expressing their opinions answer political polls.
Good point! If they really were uncomfortable, they'd just say no to participating.
 

howeda7

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Since PA is my home state, I retain some interest in that one. PA has been concerning. Recently I went back and looked at some of the vote from 2016. In those midwestern states where the vote was close (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), the results in those places were not so much the case of Trump outperforming Romney as they were the case of Clinton underperforming Obama. Perhaps not coincidentally, these were all states won by Bernie in the primaries. PA was different. Clinton had about 65,000 fewer votes there than Obama in 2012 (out of almost 6 million cast) whereas Trump had almost 300,000 more votes than Romney. Clearly, Trump did manage a significant combination of bringing out new voters and getting voters to switch from Obama to him in PA.

That's why I'm not so surprised that Michigan and Wisconsin look pretty good for Biden in polling data. With Clinton not on the ballot and resentment from Bernie supporters not much of an issue in this campaign, I expect those two states to come back to the fold. I also expect Minnesota to continue its streak for the same reason. Trump received only about 2,500 more votes than Romney in MN while Clinton received about 180,000 votes fewer than Obama.

Florida also is still concerning. While both 2016 candidates outperformed their 2012 predecessors' numbers there, Trump's increase was significantly larger. One place where Clinton outperformed Obama by significantly more than Trump outperformed Romney was Arizona and that state is showing a small, but consistent, Democratic edge in polls.
Good points. I expected Biden to get PA back fairly easily being from Scranton and all. I still think he will win it. I certainly don't want to NEED Biden to win Florida or Arizona.

Nightmare scenario is Biden flips MI, WI and AZ and nothing else. 269-269. Suddenly NE-02 becomes the ballgame. If that scenario would occur and Trump stays in while Biden won the popular vote by say 5% and 7 million votes, that would be very bad for this country.
 
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TruthSeeker

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Yeah, and that’s the inherent problem with all state polls, while national polls don’t reflect the reality of the electoral college.

State polls are inaccurate and volatile b/c of low/poor sampling.

Add into that the many conservatives’ discomfort about being judged or with expressing their support for Trump and/or against social justice narratives, and you have a recipe for complete surprise on Election Day.
I'll give you credit for trying.
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

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All Biden has to do at this point is stay alive, literally. I expect Trump to order a hit and of course, blame it on someone he was going to fire anyway. :poop::cheer:
 

KillerGopherFan

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It's weird that all these people who don't feel comfortable expressing their opinions answer political polls.
It’s not everyone obviously. Just some. Are you denying existing research?

Here’s an Politico article from before the 2016 election. You should’ve listened.


And the CATO Institute study that said 62% are reluctant to share their political opinion.

 

cjbfbp

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Good points. I expected Biden to get PA back fairly easily being from Scranton and all. I still think he will win it. I certainly don't want to NEED Biden to win Florida or Arizona.

Nightmare scenario is Biden flips MI, WI and AZ and nothing else. 269-269. Suddenly NE-02 becomes the ballgame. If that scenario would occur and Trump stays in while Biden won the popular vote by say 5% and 7 million votes, that would be very bad for this country.
Yikes! That is a nightmare scenario. I saw an electoral map just yesterday on Sabato's site and he had Biden with 269 electoral votes and that Nebraska district as a toss up. What you described momentarily occurred to me. But, if Biden does win by 5%, I think he flips more than that.

Scranton-Wilkes Barre was an ancestrally Democratic area but Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) went hard right in 2016 while Lackawanna (Scranton) still had a small Clinton margin. If the Dems can get more votes out of that eastern third of the state, they should be able to win it. Except for State College and Pittsburgh (with the close suburbs), most of the western two-thirds of the state is a lost cause.
 

howeda7

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Yikes! That is a nightmare scenario. I saw an electoral map just yesterday on Sabato's site and he had Biden with 269 electoral votes and that Nebraska district as a toss up. What you described momentarily occurred to me. But, if Biden does win by 5%, I think he flips more than that.

Scranton-Wilkes Barre was an ancestrally Democratic area but Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre) went hard right in 2016 while Lackawanna (Scranton) still had a small Clinton margin. If the Dems can get more votes out of that eastern third of the state, they should be able to win it. Except for State College and Pittsburgh (with the close suburbs), most of the western two-thirds of the state is a lost cause.
I've seen several pundits say that NE-02 is very likely to flip. One saying Biden has a better shot at that than winning MN. But there's only been like one poll of it. I certainly wouldn't trust it. It's Nebraska after all.
 

TruthSeeker

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It’s not everyone obviously. Just some. Are you denying existing research?

Here’s an Politico article from before the 2016 election. You should’ve listened.


And the CATO Institute study that said 62% are reluctant to share their political opinion.

There are no shy Trump voters anymore. It's been proven.

You're holding onto false hope to make you feel better. No judgment. You've got to do whatever you can to get through the day. Stay safe. Say a prayer. We're going to be under democrat control of the government for the next two years, and they're going to kill the filibuster. State GOP legislatures will get decimated. To get rid of Trump, it's worth it.
 

KillerGopherFan

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There are no shy Trump voters anymore. It's been proven.

You're holding onto false hope to make you feel better. No judgment. You've got to do whatever you can to get through the day. Stay safe. Say a prayer. We're going to be under democrat control of the government for the next two years, and they're going to kill the filibuster. State GOP legislatures will get decimated. To get rid of Trump, it's worth it.
No, I was pretty sure Republicans would never win another presidential election after 2012. Now, I’m more certain than ever that a Republican will win the presidency in 2024 regardless of who wins in 2020. Biden is a disaster for the Dems.

So I’ll be good on Nov 4th regardless. howie, I’m not so certain about.
 

TruthSeeker

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No, I was pretty sure Republicans would never win another presidential election after 2012. Now, I’m more certain than ever that a Republican will win the presidency in 2024 regardless of who wins in 2020. Biden is a disaster for the Dems.

So I’ll be good on Nov 4th regardless. howie, I’m not so certain about.
Yeah, you should be concerned with him.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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No, I was pretty sure Republicans would never win another presidential election after 2012. Now, I’m more certain than ever that a Republican will win the presidency in 2024 regardless of who wins in 2020. Biden is a disaster for the Dems.
I've also thought this more recently about 2024; regardless of who wins this November, I'd be shocked if the Republicans don't win the WH in 2024. Biden/Harris would f'k things up beyond all belief in the next 4 years, it would ALMOST (almost) be worth seeing them win just to watch that shit show, at least if they didn't control the Senate
 

stocker08

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The right wingers on this site are dreaming. Trump's debating style is going to make Biden look like the most knowledgeable, rational, and reasonable politician in America. Since Trump never reads anything he doesn't know the issues beyond a couple of sound bites designed to appeal only to his base. Biden has gotten up close and personal with political issues for most of his adult life. He knows them far better than most politicians. Even if he makes a few verbal slip-ups Trump's bluster and obvious lies are not going to appeal to independents who still haven't made up their minds. Biden is going to do just fine in the debates.
Yup. The debates will be a bloodbath. Can't wait to see Trump look like a complete fool.
 
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