New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

Go4Broke

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Trump losing the military vote?

Could be.


Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times Poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden

The Military Times Polls, surveying active-duty troops in partnership with the Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF) at Syracuse University, have seen a steady drop in troops’ opinion of the commander in chief since his election four years ago.

In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent. Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.

Flashback: In a similar poll conducted shortly before the 2016 election, Trump led Hillary Clinton by a 41%-21% margin. Since 2016, though, the president's approval rating among active-duty troops has fallen from 46% to 38%, while his disapproval rating has climbed to 50%.

 

Go4Broke

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Biden's lead over Trump is the steadiest on record

New CBS News/YouGov polls reveal that former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his grip on the 2020 race for president.

Biden's up 52% to 42% over President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, and he has a 50% to 44% edge over Trump in the key battleground state of Wisconsin as well.

Biden's 10 point and 6 point advantages are the exact same they were when CBS News/YouGov polled the contests before the party conventions.

The polls are reflective of a race that barely budges even after two conventions, protests and unrest in some cities over police brutality and as the nation navigates the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, the stability of this race is record breaking when looking at polling dating back to 1940.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/biden-lead-steady-new-polls/index.html
 

WAGopher

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Fewer undecided voters is very good for Biden. But Trump is by no means out, nothing would surprise me in this election.
I agree, this election is closer to a toss up, than a clear winner. If Trump signs some centrist executive orders, then he can attract a bunch of independent voters. Biden needs to live in the swing states for the next two months to try and get those same voters.
 

TruthSeeker

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I agree, this election is closer to a toss up, than a clear winner. If Trump signs some centrist executive orders, then he can attract a bunch of independent voters. Biden needs to live in the swing states for the next two months to try and get those same voters.
Dumb post. You must be a lefty who is scarred from 2016.
 

Wally

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Biden needs to come off as same and competent in the debates.
 

howeda7

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I agree, this election is closer to a toss up, than a clear winner. If Trump signs some centrist executive orders, then he can attract a bunch of independent voters. Biden needs to live in the swing states for the next two months to try and get those same voters.
It's not a toss-up. There isn't a binary choice between "over" and "toss-up" though the media desperately wants a toss-up for ratings. Trump is a historically unpopular incumbent who is badly behind. Can he come back? Yes. Is it likely? No. He's certainly a lot more than "a centrist executive order" away from taking the lead.
 

WAGopher

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Dumb post. You must be a lefty who is scarred from 2016.
Nope, not who I am. I am a realist. Trump is still above 40% popularity rating, and he is trailing Biden by 10 points in election polling (7 when considering possible margin of error). Trump’s tactic for now is to support the red and swing states and attack the blue. Biden has been giving interviews and a few speeches, but if he stops campaigning like both Gore and Hillary did, he may lose a key state.

If Trump can find issues he can leverage, he can overcome his deficit. And Biden could lose if he only sits back to watch Trump self destruct.
 

TruthSeeker

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Nope, not who I am. I am a realist. Trump is still above 40% popularity rating, and he is trailing Biden by 10 points in election polling (7 when considering possible margin of error). Trump’s tactic for now is to support the red and swing states and attack the blue. Biden has been giving interviews and a few speeches, but if he stops campaigning like both Gore and Hillary did, he may lose a key state.

If Trump can find issues he can leverage, he can overcome his deficit. And Biden could lose if he only sits back to watch Trump self destruct.
Uninformed poster. Very remedial political knowledge.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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If you could vote just by answering the phone, like they take the polls, Mr. Magoo would be in much better shape
 

WAGopher

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It's not a toss-up. There isn't a binary choice between "over" and "toss-up" though the media desperately wants a toss-up for ratings. Trump is a historically unpopular incumbent who is badly behind. Can he come back? Yes. Is it likely? No. He's certainly a lot more than "a centrist executive order" away from taking the lead.
I said it was closer to a toss up than being over, not that it is a like a coin flip. And I didn’t say one centrist executive order by Trump will win the election.

There’s going to be a lot of movement by the Trump campaign to paint him as a centrist to attract the independent voters. He’ll also try to shore up the military vote. There’s plenty of time, including the debates for ground to be made up.

Biden needs to be seen more frequently, and get his feet in the swing states. If he does that and has good debates, he has the better chance to win. With his recent huge donation haul, funding shouldn’t be an issue.
 

TruthSeeker

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Nope, and nope. You’ll never find the truth if you don’t engage debate.
Debate? There is no debate. I am imparting the truth upon you.

You should be so fortunate that I'm willing to raise your IQ.
 

cjbfbp

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I said it was closer to a toss up than being over, not that it is a like a coin flip. And I didn’t say one centrist executive order by Trump will win the election.

There’s going to be a lot of movement by the Trump campaign to paint him as a centrist to attract the independent voters. He’ll also try to shore up the military vote. There’s plenty of time, including the debates for ground to be made up.

Biden needs to be seen more frequently, and get his feet in the swing states. If he does that and has good debates, he has the better chance to win. With his recent huge donation haul, funding shouldn’t be an issue.
I'm more confident about the November outcome than you but I think your suggestions are good advice nevertheless as this contest isn't anything close to a sure thing. Glad you joined the board! Our side was significantly outnumbered here for some time but recent additions have improved our percentage.
 

cjbfbp

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If you could vote just by answering the phone, like they take the polls, Mr. Magoo would be in much better shape
You could work a little harder to find a more suitable analogy. I watched Mr. Magoo as a child. His impairment was severe nearsightedness. I've never heard anything about Biden having that problem.
 

howeda7

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I said it was closer to a toss up than being over, not that it is a like a coin flip. And I didn’t say one centrist executive order by Trump will win the election.

There’s going to be a lot of movement by the Trump campaign to paint him as a centrist to attract the independent voters. He’ll also try to shore up the military vote. There’s plenty of time, including the debates for ground to be made up.

Biden needs to be seen more frequently, and get his feet in the swing states. If he does that and has good debates, he has the better chance to win. With his recent huge donation haul, funding shouldn’t be an issue.
95%+ of people know how they feel about Donald Trump and either love him or hate him. The % that can be persuaded is historically low. Don's hope rests on suppressing Dem turnout and getting his as high as possible. That's why he's spending his time ginning up his base over "riots", trying to gut the USPS and screaming about fraud and mail in ballots and not "painting himself as a centrist".
 

Wally

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Nobody with a moral compass loves him. He is a useful tool. Primarily, it seems, to own libs. Which is terrific for the country.
I think that was sarcasm, but these days you never know 😂
 

Go4Broke

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Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average8/26 - 9/7----49.942.8Biden +7.1
CBS News/YouGov9/2 - 9/42433 LV--5242Biden +10
USC Dornsife9/1 - 9/72508 LV--5242Biden +10
Harvard-Harris8/31 - 9/2LV--5347Biden +6
Emerson8/30 - 8/311567 LV2.44947Biden +2
IBD/TIPP8/29 - 9/11033 RV--4941Biden +8
CNN8/28 - 9/1997 RV4.05143Biden +8
Reuters/Ipsos8/28 - 9/11089 RV3.44740Biden +7
The Hill/HarrisX8/29 - 8/312834 RV1.84640Biden +6
Quinnipiac8/28 - 8/311081 LV3.05242Biden +10
USA Today/Suffolk8/28 - 8/311000 RV3.15043Biden +7
Rasmussen Reports8/26 - 9/12500 LV2.04945Biden +4
Grinnell/Selzer8/26 - 8/30827 LV3.44941Biden +8
 
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justthefacts

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Given everything, this may be the single worst poll for Trump that I've seen so far.


A good reminder not to take any single poll as that meaningful
 
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