New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

cjbfbp

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I find it amusing that all the liberal SJW warriors on this board pretend to be down for the cause. Most probably live in Farmington or Apple Valley [- or maybe further into the hinterlands, , not Cedar-Riverside where I talked to a couple of great old Somali elder types at the bike ship yesterday
First of all, the Democrats who post here strike me mostly as partisan Democrats rather than social justice zealots. I suspect that if you polled most of us, you would find a fair amount of diversity and moderation of views. What we are united (and not at all moderate) about is our distaste for Trump and the state of the current GOP. In that regard, we are not much different from many people who would have been called Rockefeller Republicans years ago and even some who formerly were regarded as conservative Republicans.

I second Howe's statement that if you don't like where you live, then vote with your feet. I live in a small town that is very Republican and I've always declined requests to put a Democratic yard sign on my lawn. I don't think there would be any serious consequences from doing that but I know I would get the cold shoulder from some. I met this guy in a local bar who was a Democrat and a strong union member shortly after moving here. We happened to talk politics during our first conversation. Every time he saw me there afterward, he would always come over to talk for a bit because he said I was one of the very few people in the area with whom he could feel comfortable talking politics.

We make these choices about where to live and most locations are a mixture of positives and negatives. If you can't stand being the political oddball in your location, then you either have to move to a more suitable location, live with it, or seek out some group of like-minded people as an escape from your environment.
 

Section2

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We need more polling to confirm, but if these numhers are consistent, then Trump has lost already.
Seems like you’ve told us a dozen times that this is already over. Seems like some doubt is creeping in?
 

TruthSeeker

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Seems like you’ve told us a dozen times that this is already over. Seems like some doubt is creeping in?
No. I've said plenty that Trump has a chance, but he needs the numbers to flip quickly. If he doesn't get closer to Biden after his convention then he's phucked.

Early voting starts before the 1st debate. You can't be down 6-10 point during early voting and hope to win, especially this year. People will be sending in the ballots by mail ASAP to make sure their ballots arrive on time.
 

Section2

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No. I've said plenty that Trump has a chance, but he needs the numbers to flip quickly. If he doesn't get closer to Biden after his convention then he's phucked.

Early voting starts before the 1st debate. You can't be down 6-10 point during early voting and hope to win, especially this year. People will be sending in the ballots by mail ASAP to make sure their ballots arrive on time.
I feel like I’ve seen a minimum of 10 posts or more from you stating Trump was done.
polls are certainly moving in trumps direction Betting lines narrowing. It’s close.
 

TruthSeeker

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I feel like I’ve seen a minimum of 10 posts or more from you stating Trump was done.
polls are certainly moving in trumps direction Betting lines narrowing. It’s close.
We don't have many, if any, polls to look at. Betting markets all moved due to dumb money coming in. Enthusiastic supporters putting down money on their guy after getting fired up.

We'll know if Trump helped himself by Labor Day.
 

Section2

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We don't have many, if any, polls to look at. Betting markets all moved due to dumb money coming in. Enthusiastic supporters putting down money on their guy after getting fired up.

We'll know if Trump helped himself by Labor Day.
You can ignore all of that. Just notice the messaging change from Dems and the MSM (but I repeat).
 

Spoofin

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We don't have many, if any, polls to look at. Betting markets all moved due to dumb money coming in. Enthusiastic supporters putting down money on their guy after getting fired up.

We'll know if Trump helped himself by Labor Day.
Great analysis - based on all sorts of things and stuff. Thank You.
 

TruthSeeker

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Great analysis - based on all sorts of things and stuff. Thank You.
You've always had a problem with keeping up Spoofy. I'll dumb it down for you a little more. Maybe you'll be able to stay afloat.
 

Go4Broke

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Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times Poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden


The Military Times Polls, surveying active-duty troops in partnership with the Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF) at Syracuse University, have seen a steady drop in troops’ opinion of the commander in chief since his election four years ago.

In the latest results — based on 1,018 active-duty troops surveyed in late July and early August — nearly half of respondents (49.9 percent) had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to about 38 percent who had a favorable view. Questions in the poll had a margin of error of up to 2 percent. Among all survey participants, 42 percent said they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s time in office.

Flashback: In a similar poll conducted shortly before the 2016 election, Trump led Hillary Clinton by a 41%-21% margin. Since 2016, though, the president's approval rating among active-duty troops has fallen from 46% to 38%, while his disapproval rating has climbed to 50%.

 

cjbfbp

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Those odds of winning an electoral college victory at various levels of popular vote margins are a real eye opener. According to that chart, a Democrat has to pass a 3% margin before winning the electoral college becomes more likely than not. I hope some day the shoe is on the other foot and I live long enough to hear Republicans squeal about the injustice of the electoral system.
 

howeda7

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Those odds of winning an electoral college victory at various levels of popular vote margins are a real eye opener. According to that chart, a Democrat has to pass a 3% margin before winning the electoral college becomes more likely than not. I hope some day the shoe is on the other foot and I live long enough to hear Republicans squeal about the injustice of the electoral system.
Might happen the day Texas flips blue....unfortunately that day is perpetually "4 years away."
 

oak_street1981

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Get over it, the popular vote means nothing, and never has in the US, thanks to the decisions made that protected the smaller states (like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, ect)

I guess you guys need to move to some other country if you prefer a different format.
 

TruthSeeker

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Get over it, the popular vote means nothing, and never has in the US, thanks to the decisions made that protected the smaller states (like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, ect)

I guess you guys need to move to some other country if you prefer a different format.
Uneducated post.
 

justthefacts

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Get over it, the popular vote means nothing, and never has in the US, thanks to the decisions made that protected the smaller states (like Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, ect)

I guess you guys need to move to some other country if you prefer a different format.
The states right around the tipping point line in 538's forecast are below, along with their ranking in population:
PA -5
AZ - 14
WI - 20
FL - 3
MN - 22
NC - 9
NH - 42
NV - 33
MI - 10


I'm not sure what "protected the smaller states" means, but it's certainly not making smaller states more important. That's just a myth. When there are campaign events in ND, SD, WY, AK, or VT, let me know.
 

cjbfbp

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Might happen the day Texas flips blue....unfortunately that day is perpetually "4 years away."
How true! Pennsylvania was the battle ground state regularly coveted by the GOP in presidential elections after 1988 but it always seemed to elude their grasp until 2016. Our Texas wish is relatively new in comparison (Hillary was the first Democratic candidate in a long time who I remember talking about winning it). We'll see how long Democrats have to wait for that one. Last time was 1976.
 

cjbfbp

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Get over it, the popular vote means nothing, and never has in the US,
I've told you before how absurd that view is but you're obviously a slow learner. The popular vote and electoral vote are correlated and a rising tide lifts all boats. From Nate Silver's chart, Republicans have an electoral advantage IF the Democratic margin falls at or below 3%. Beyond that point, increases in Democratic popular vote margin expand the Democratic electoral margin significantly. Obama beat Romney by a 3.9% popular vote margin in 2012 and that was enough to score a 332-206 electoral margin.

Look, unlike some Republicans posting here, the Democratic voters who post here are not stubborn ignoramuses. We all understand how a president is elected.
 

oak_street1981

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I've told you before how absurd that view is but you're obviously a slow learner. The popular vote and electoral vote are correlated and a rising tide lifts all boats. From Nate Silver's chart, Republicans have an electoral advantage IF the Democratic margin falls at or below 3%. Beyond that point, increases in Democratic popular vote margin expand the Democratic electoral margin significantly. Obama beat Romney by a 3.9% popular vote margin in 2012 and that was enough to score a 332-206 electoral margin.

Look, unlike some Republicans posting here, the Democratic voters who post here are not stubborn ignoramuses. We all understand how a president is elected.
Wrong again
 

oak_street1981

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Campaigns operate on the basis of the Electoral College being reality, making the popular vote not worth talking about, ever.
 

cjbfbp

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The states right around the tipping point line in 538's forecast are below, along with their ranking in population:
PA -5
AZ - 14
WI - 20
FL - 3
MN - 22
NC - 9
NH - 42
NV - 33
MI - 10


I'm not sure what "protected the smaller states" means, but it's certainly not making smaller states more important. That's just a myth. When there are campaign events in ND, SD, WY, AK, or VT, let me know.
Very well presented. Unfortunately, your efforts will make no difference to that poster.
 

cjbfbp

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Campaigns operate on the basis of the Electoral College being reality, making the popular vote not worth talking about, ever.
You suffer from bi-polar thinking. The two (popular vote and electoral vote) are not independent. I actually borrowed the line "a rising tide lifts all boats" from Pat Buchanan who described Nixon's electoral strategy.

A candidate can't lose the popular vote by 6% and win by cherry picking states. If Biden beats Hillary Clinton's margin by 5% overall, that will translate into increased margins in the overwhelming majority of states. Obama won by 3.9% in 2012 and Clinton won by 2.2% in 2016. Clinton's reduced margin was reflected in all but about 5 states or so (notably she came closer in Georgia and Texas).
 

oak_street1981

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You suffer from bi-polar thinking. The two (popular vote and electoral vote) are not independent. I actually borrowed the line "a rising tide lifts all boats" from Pat Buchanan who described Nixon's electoral strategy.

A candidate can't lose the popular vote by 6% and win by cherry picking states. If Biden beats Hillary Clinton's margin by 5% overall, that will translate into increased margins in the overwhelming majority of states. Obama won by 3.9% in 2012 and Clinton won by 2.2% in 2016. Clinton's reduced margin was reflected in all but about 5 states or so (notably she came closer in Georgia and Texas).
[/QUOTE
No, I just do not waste time crying about the popular vote like you and Hillary
 

cjbfbp

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No crying here. 2016 was what it was. Your statement that the popular vote is irrelevant is simply absurd. End of story. If you said something like "a popular vote victory does not guarantee an electoral victory" I would have no choice but to agree but, apparently, you can't be bothered to state propositions with appropriate nuance and qualifiers.
 
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