New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

Bad Gopher

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Losers always need an excuse for losing. It's never to look inward. LOSERS are going to look for any outlying source to attribute their losses. You should be more sensitive to some of these folks; they've been living with being losers for over 3.5 years, for some of them a lot longer than that
None of that changes the fact or the point: only once in 32 years has the Republican candidate gotten more votes than the Democrat. Regardless of the definition of winning, that stat is the definition of unpopular.
 

oak_street1981

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None of that changes the fact or the point: only once in 32 years has the Republican candidate gotten more votes than the Democrat. Regardless of the definition of winning, that stat is the definition of unpopular.
You liberals sure like talking about the popular vote, something that is completely meaningless under the system our country has had from the beginning. Liberals do not seem to like the Constitution much.
 

oak_street1981

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The first statement is absurd. A rising tide lifts all boats. I don't see a scenario where Trump can lose the popular vote by 6% or 7% and win the electoral college. We know he can do it with losing the popular vote by less than 3% but even pulling that off again is questionable.

As to the second statement, I don't know where you live but I live in Minnesota, a state that has voted for the Democratic nominee in every election since 1972 (more times than those states you mentioned) so I would say that the majority of Minnesotans should be irked about Mississippi, the Dakotas, and Idaho having a disproportionate number of electoral votes to decide the presidential winner.

Trump, as he has said many times, was one more campaign visit away from winning Minnesota in 2016. The silent majority is in hiding due to the liberal SJW witch hunt. The polls actually look pretty good relative to 2016, and there is no real enthusiasm for the animated corpse that Joe Biden is.

There would be no USA, going back to the founding days, if the smaller states were not given some assurances to make sure the largest states would not dominate the union. That principle remains relevant today.

I live in the second most liberal congressional district in Minnesota. These elitist, naive neighbors of mine would probably vote for Ihlan Omar in the same numbers as their communist comrades in Minneapolis did. WE probably need a second wave of ultra violent juvenile street crime to wake up these utopian robots.

I am thankful for the electoral college and thankful we have normal neighbors in SD, ND and other sparsely populated states. None of my votes count for anything in the local elections, since the DFL always gets about 80 percent, but at least I have a shot to back a couple of winners this year in Donald Trump and Jason Lewis. I expect both to win, and maybe Trump might win in Minnesota.

The average person is not ready to accept AOC/ Antifa/ BLM crazytown, and unless we see massive voter fraud, I will be proven correct in 80 plus days.

You left wing socialists can keep touting those great poll numbers for 80 plus more days.
 
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Bad Gopher

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You liberals sure like talking about the popular vote, something that is completely meaningless under the system our country has had from the beginning. Liberals do not seem to like the Constitution much.
I brought it up to illustrate how truly unpopular the Republican Party is, which it is.
 

cjbfbp

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None of my votes count for anything in the local elections, since the DFL always gets about 80 percent, but at least I have a shot to back a couple of winners this year in Donald Trump and Jason Lewis. I expect both to win, and maybe Trump might win in Minnesota.
I'm not going to dignify the rest of your post by responding to any of it (or even copying it in this response) because it is all right wing boiler plate rage. You might try original writing occasionally instead of copying generic talking points. You also may consider editing your posts to eliminate unintentional confusion and redundancy like this: "but at least I have a shot to back a couple of winners this year in Donald Trump and Jason Lewis. I expect both to win, and maybe Trump might win in Minnesota."

But, I will address Jason Lewis. He couldn't manage more than one term in a swing congressional district. What makes you think he can beat Tina Smith who won her seat by double digits only two years ago?

That's a rhetorical question. I neither expect nor desire an answer. After all, any response from you would be of very low quality anyway.
 

cjbfbp

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Thank you for posting this. The survey is very encouraging, of course, but I would like to see this survey replicated by some others before getting too confident about the breakdown. This concise illustration also throws a damp rag on CRG's claims about Trump picking up crossover and new (or non) voters and consequently being in a better position than he was in 2016. Technically, he is correct. Trump has picked up crossover and new/non voters but much fewer than the opposition.
 

Go4Broke

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Thank you for posting this. The survey is very encouraging, of course, but I would like to see this survey replicated by some others before getting too confident about the breakdown. This concise illustration also throws a damp rag on CRG's claims about Trump picking up crossover and new (or non) voters and consequently being in a better position than he was in 2016. Technically, he is correct. Trump has picked up crossover and new/non voters but much fewer than the opposition.
The USC Dornsife Tracking Poll was one of the very few polls that correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016. https://news.usc.edu/110639/usc-dornsifel-a-times-outlier-poll-rings-true-as-donald-trump-wins/

This is their first poll for 2020.
 

cjbfbp

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The USC Dornsife Tracking Poll was one of the very few polls that correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016. https://news.usc.edu/110639/usc-dornsifel-a-times-outlier-poll-rings-true-as-donald-trump-wins/

This is their first poll for 2020.
That may be true and some pollsters are better than others but, since polling is inherently a random activity, I don't think a pollster's comparative success in one election should create a strong inference that they should be the most accurate in a different election.
 

Go4Broke

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That may be true and some pollsters are better than others but, since polling is inherently a random activity, I don't think a pollster's comparative success in one election should create a strong inference that they should be the most accurate in a different election.
Until their unique polling methods are discredited in this or other elections I'm going to be watching the USC Poll very closely. I won't be the only one.

Why the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times presidential poll is unlike other polls

What makes this a “probability” poll and is it unique?

The Daybreak Poll is a probability survey whose methodology aims to provide a best estimate of how America plans to vote in the November election based on the expressed intent of potential voters. The poll’s probability approach seeks to measure participants’ level of certainty in their plans to vote and the intensity of their commitment to a candidate, rather than simply their preference for one candidate. The Daybreak Poll is one of only a few such daily probability polls that exist in the country.

Who are the poll’s participants?

More than 3,200 participants in the larger Understanding America Study are on the election panel for the Daybreak Poll. Of those, one seventh — nearly 450 people — are invited daily to participate in the Daybreak Poll to ensure a balanced sample. The participants are 18 and older, sampled to be representative of all eligible voters across the United States.

What makes this a “tracking” poll?

The poll checks in once a week with the same group of people to measure changes in their opinion up until they vote in November. Results are updated nightly at midnight online. The results are based on a continuous, rolling seven-day average.

Sometimes the Daybreak Poll results do not resemble other poll results. Why?

Like any other election poll, the Daybreak Poll is designed to estimate the presidential election outcome. It uses an innovative approach that makes it difficult to compare the results with other polls’ results.

Some of these differences include:
  • Our questions allow voters to express a greater level of uncertainty than traditional poll questions which force respondents to choose a single candidate or say that they “don’t know.” For example, in the Daybreak Poll, a respondent might say that they are 60 percent for Clinton and 40 percent for Trump.
  • We include voters who did not vote in the prior presidential election and others who may be considered “less likely to vote.” Many traditional polls exclude some or all of these voters. We weight our results based on turnout in the 2012 election to account for differential response rates. We used this approach very successfully to predict the 2012 election outcome. Our final prediction was a 3.32 points advantage for Obama. The final tally of the popular vote showed a 3.85 points advantage. Our prediction was at least a couple of points more in Obama’s favor than most of the other tracking polls.
  • The panel of respondents answer the survey questions once a week, versus traditional polls that collect data periodically.
  • Our poll is internet-based. Studies have indicated that people are sometimes more honest about their voting preferences when completing internet surveys than they are in phone surveys.
  • We randomly recruit participants from households nationwide, providing internet service and an internet-connected tablet computer to those who do not already have it. Therefore, our sample includes a proportion of individuals who cannot be represented in web-based polls that do not provide such access.
  • Our participants can answer poll questions at any time of the day or night. We give them seven days to do it; thus, our sample is likely to include more voters who are difficult to reach by phone during traditional telephone polling hours.
https://news.usc.edu/109339/why-the-usc-dornsifel-a-times-presidential-poll-is-unlike-other-polls/
 
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howeda7

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That may be true and some pollsters are better than others but, since polling is inherently a random activity, I don't think a pollster's comparative success in one election should create a strong inference that they should be the most accurate in a different election.
The problems with it remain the same. If their initial sample is good, it's fine. If it's not, they'll be far off. Their micro-sampling leads to significant weight to certain individuals.

In 2016 there was one African American Trump supporter between 18-21. He was essentially weighted 100 x what some other respondents were. If he wasn't in the survey that week, Trump's calculated support from African Americans would go down 10% and it could move the entire poll 1%.
 

oak_street1981

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I'm not going to dignify the rest of your post by responding to any of it (or even copying it in this response) because it is all right wing boiler plate rage. You might try original writing occasionally instead of copying generic talking points. You also may consider editing your posts to eliminate unintentional confusion and redundancy like this: "but at least I have a shot to back a couple of winners this year in Donald Trump and Jason Lewis. I expect both to win, and maybe Trump might win in Minnesota."

But, I will address Jason Lewis. He couldn't manage more than one term in a swing congressional district. What makes you think he can beat Tina Smith who won her seat by double digits only two years ago
?

That's a rhetorical question. I neither expect nor desire an answer. After all, any response from you would be of very low quality anyway.
Go ahead and line up with that dynamic political warhorse Tina Smith. Obviously a brilliant writer and great thinker like you knows best, only the highest of quality!

Newsflash, Trump is on the ballot now, he wasn't in 2016, so the Trump haters in Minnesota (and maybe the one liberal in Minneota, - edit) had a good day.

I would not write off Jason Lewis yet, even if he is underfunded and cannot campaign as usual, which he is way better at than pathetic California uber liberal Tina Smith.
 
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WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

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re: RNC

Trump should have at least made an effort to come across as having some genuine compassion for the panel of returned American hostages that he assembled. That could have been a really nice segment for him if he wasn't so cold about it. He was bordering on rude to at least one of them. All jokes and politics aside, i actually wonder if he is one of the small percent of people that is incapable of feeling empathy. I can't think of a time off the top of my head that he's ever even bothered to fake it.


Fun to watch Nikki Haley's face in the last few seconds of her speech, her eyes twitch dramatically at tell moments. :ROFLMAO:

How much blow did Trump Jr. do before he took the podium? Woah buddy.
 
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howeda7

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re: RNC

Trump should have at least made an effort to come across as having some genuine compassion for the panel of returned American hostages that he assembled. That could have been a really nice segment for him if he wasn't so cold about it. He was bordering on rude to at least one of them. All jokes and politics aside, i actually wonder if he is one of the small percent of people that is incapable of feeling empathy. I can't think of a time off the top of my head that he's ever even bothered to fake it.


Fun to watch Nikki Haley's face in the last few seconds of her speech, her eyes twitch dramatically at tell moments. :ROFLMAO:

How much blow did Trump Jr. do before he took the podium? Woah buddy.
A tremendous amount. Like we've never seen. People are amazed.
 

oak_street1981

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Well at least he delivered a great speech, as did his GF Kimberly Guilfoyle, (ex wife of Gavin Newsom) who gave California politics some special treatment tonight.

Joe Biden could not deliver a speech with the energy and concise points like DTJR or KG did tonight.

CNN hated it, which is a great sign, as they called it a "dark" speech as they usually call any Trump messaging. In catching up with the DVR watching the CNN broadcast now, it is the same old tired approach, just like an August 2016 time warp. Precious Anderson Cooper, old bag Gloria Borger and Obama hack Axelrod all predicting doom and writing off Trump. They never learn.

OK, they now brought on Van Jones who brings a some decent, honest insights regardless of whether I agree with him or not, , along with the token right wing guy Rick Santorum. so it is a little watchable.

If they just had Van Jones and Santorum on 1 on 1, like old style Crossfire, CNN would be my go to TV network this week.
 
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stocker08

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Not really. I mean, unless you just make up some numbers and add them in...which is exactly what is done for that poll.

"The Trafalgar Group’s surveys have been showing a tighter race in the battlegrounds than other pollsters have found.

The outlet weights its polls to account for a “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters they support his candidacy.
"

I mean, you gotta make up votes on the position that people are EMBARRASSED to show their support?Seems like that ought to say enough right there.
Seems about correct. Makes you wonder about newer OTB posters like panthadad and oak_street. I mean guys like beej, deuce, kfc, les.....they walk around wearing the goofy red hat and screaming "MAGA" at families passing by on the sidewalk. But the other righties....how many of them are the so-called "shy Trump voters"? They defend him to the death on this site.....but they can do that anonymously. Do you think they lie in person so that acquaintances don't have to see the shame on their faces? So that they aren't embarrassed to look like a rambling fool in public?
 

oak_street1981

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Seems about correct. Makes you wonder about newer OTB posters like panthadad and oak_street. I mean guys like beej, deuce, kfc, les.....they walk around wearing the goofy red hat and screaming "MAGA" at families passing by on the sidewalk. But the other righties....how many of them are the so-called "shy Trump voters"? They defend him to the death on this site.....but they can do that anonymously. Do you think they lie in person so that acquaintances don't have to see the shame on their faces? So that they aren't embarrassed to look like a rambling fool in public?
Well I will speak for myself and I live in a highly 85 percent liberal socialist DFL neighborhood. We cannot expose our true views freely or we will be shunned or maybe even physically attacked. This is not an exaggeration.

If I wore a MAGA hat or other stuff around here a bunch of nut jobs would start yelling at me or worse. I'd have to bring a baton or something stronger under my shirt to avoid being attacked. If a Biden supporter wore a shirt in exurban areas, nothing at all would happen.

I have no shame at all. My sister and I are 100 percent for Trump. We both used to be liberal DFLers. Our two younger brothers have not woken up yet but the leftist tyranny will overwhelm them eventually and they will go right if their job allow them to. One brother works in Big Tech, so he would be destroyed if he did not follow the script out west. He knows better but he is following the script.

When we get closer to election day I'll start sporting the MAGA line around here, with some backup.
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

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Seems about correct. Makes you wonder about newer OTB posters like panthadad and oak_street. I mean guys like beej, deuce, kfc, les.....they walk around wearing the goofy red hat and screaming "MAGA" at families passing by on the sidewalk. But the other righties....how many of them are the so-called "shy Trump voters"? They defend him to the death on this site.....but they can do that anonymously. Do you think they lie in person so that acquaintances don't have to see the shame on their faces? So that they aren't embarrassed to look like a rambling fool in public?
I was under the assumption that the majority of them just move to North Branch so they can be around other great people.
 

stocker08

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Well I will speak for myself and I live in a highly 85 percent liberal socialist DFL neighborhood. We cannot expose our true views freely or we will be shunned or maybe even physically attacked. This is not an exaggeration.

If I wore a MAGA hat or other stuff around here a bunch of nut jobs would start yelling at me or worse. I'd have to bring a baton or something stronger under my shirt to avoid being attacked. If a Biden supporter wore a shirt in exurban areas, nothing at all would happen.

I have no shame at all. My sister and I are 100 percent for Trump. We both used to be liberal DFLers. Our two younger brothers have not woken up yet but the leftist tyranny will overwhelm them eventually and they will go right if their job allow them to. One brother works in Big Tech, so he would be destroyed if he did not follow the script out west. He knows better but he is following the script.

When we get closer to election day I'll start sporting the MAGA line around here, with some backup.
You live in a socialist neighborhood? Does everybody in your trailer park chip in for wifi?
 

oak_street1981

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From Stocker socialist 08"
You live in a socialist neighborhood? Does everybody in your trailer park chip in for wifi?


Yes, have lived for 27 years in Ramsey Hill, or as the "new" people say, Cathedral Hill.

For fun I'd like to buy an old house, tear it down and put a trailer park on the land parcel. It would drive all these liberals around here insane. I'd hire the best lawyer in the city and go to war with those clowns, all for amusement. Maybe a goal for after I retire.

I see that worthless Betty McCollum and the useless, slightly better than Jacob Frey, Mayor all the time. No Stocker8, those DFLers do not help anyone,, they just increase my taxes and follow bad utopian policies.

Thanks for asking.

If you doubt how insane the left is around here I suggest to put on the MAGA hat and come over for a test. Most of them will just cluck at you but in recent days, after dark at least, the worst elements might attack.

So Stocker, what enlightened neighborhood do you live in? I showed my hand.
 

howeda7

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From Stocker socialist 08"
You live in a socialist neighborhood? Does everybody in your trailer park chip in for wifi?


Yes, have lived for 27 years in Ramsey Hill, or as the "new" people say, Cathedral Hill.

For fun I'd like to buy an old house, tear it down and put a trailer park on the land parcel. It would drive all these liberals around here insane. I'd hire the best lawyer in the city and go to war with those clowns, all for amusement. Maybe a goal for after I retire.

I see that worthless Betty McCollum and the useless, slightly better than Jacob Frey, Mayor all the time. No Stocker8, those DFLers do not help anyone,, they just increase my taxes and follow bad utopian policies.

Thanks for asking.

If you doubt how insane the left is around here I suggest to put on the MAGA hat and come over for a test. Most of them will just cluck at you but in recent days, after dark at least, the worst elements might attack.

So Stocker, what enlightened neighborhood do you live in? I showed my hand.
Sounds awful. Time to vote with your feet and move to the GOP paradise of SD.
 

oak_street1981

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Sounds awful. Time to vote with your feet and move to the GOP paradise of SD.
So where do you live big socialist shooter? Stand up and be proud and vague if need be.

I find it amusing that all the liberal SJW warriors on this board pretend to be down for the cause. Most probably live in Farmington or Apple Valley [- or maybe further into the hinterlands, , not Cedar-Riverside where I talked to a couple of great old Somali elder types at the bike ship yesterday

Down for the cause my ass, until you have to face the anarchy head on like we do here in St. Paul. (Somali elders are the least of our issues by the way in case anyone missed my point- I'd like them to stop;the genital mutilatiion of their children though)
 
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WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

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You frauds like the "other fine people" lie from VA a lot, get over it, it is all on video, not what Trump meant. Trump was very clear an earlier tape that the "fine people" were monument historians, not neo-KKK losers and other fringe losers who were in VA that day.

blah blah blah blah blah

Um...? What? LoL. Sensitive much? Are you up past your bedtime? I was poking fun at MJ Felton, and my comment had nothing to do with what you're flipping out about. But you're hilarious, thanks for chiming in so very awkwardly with something totally unrelated.
 

golf

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Well I will speak for myself and I live in a highly 85 percent liberal socialist DFL neighborhood. We cannot expose our true views freely or we will be shunned or maybe even physically attacked. This is not an exaggeration.

If I wore a MAGA hat or other stuff around here a bunch of nut jobs would start yelling at me or worse. I'd have to bring a baton or something stronger under my shirt to avoid being attacked. If a Biden supporter wore a shirt in exurban areas, nothing at all would happen.

I have no shame at all. My sister and I are 100 percent for Trump. We both used to be liberal DFLers. Our two younger brothers have not woken up yet but the leftist tyranny will overwhelm them eventually and they will go right if their job allow them to. One brother works in Big Tech, so he would be destroyed if he did not follow the script out west. He knows better but he is following the script.

When we get closer to election day I'll start sporting the MAGA line around here, with some backup.
Over 1/3 of the minnesota delegates understand your first two paragraphs. They refused to divulge their names for security reasons.. Think about that.

As with the unmasked death and destruction in our cities this summer, we need to remember the fear of these delegates is well justified in light of all the injustice of the past.
 
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