New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

Go4Broke

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State of the Race

The RealClearPolitics average shows Biden ahead by 8 percentage points as of late Sunday — larger than any president’s winning margin of victory since Bill Clinton in 1996 — but down a tick from the 10-point lead he had earlier in the summer.

That slight tightening can also be seen in individual surveys. The biggest shift away from Biden came in a CNN/SSRS poll released on Sunday night. That poll showed the newly minted Biden/Harris ticket just 4 points ahead of Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, 50 percent to 46 percent. In June, Biden led Trump by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Other surveys show little to no tightening, however. An ABC News/Washington Post poll published early Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 12 points among registered voters, down from 15 points last month — and 10 points among likely voters, unchanged from last month.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday — conducted mostly before Biden tapped Harris to join the ticket — gave the former vice president a 9-point lead, 50 percent to 41 percent. That was down from an 11-point advantage in July.

A Fox News survey released late last week but conducted over the same time period as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed Biden leading Trump, 49 percent to 42 percent. That 7-point lead is down slightly from 8 points in July and 12 points in June.

Earlier in the week, entirely before the Harris pick, a Monmouth University poll showed Biden ahead by 10 points, down from 13 points in late June. And a Pew Research Center survey gave Biden an 8-point lead, compared with his 10-point lead in June.

Not all polls show Trump inching a little closer to Biden: A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted after the Harris pick and released on Sunday morning shows Biden with a 10-point lead, 52 percent to 42 percent, equal to Biden’s lead last month. And a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll released last week showed Biden’s lead growing slightly, from 8 points in late June to 11 points this month.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/17/biden-trump-polling-democratic-convention-396275
 
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oak_street1981

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Regardless of how the electoral votes come out, it's worth noting that the Republican Party has lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes for the presidency, which is a fairly historic run and a clear repudiation of their policies and candidates. This coming election will, in all likelihood, make it 7 out of the last 8.
Maybe it is time to stop talking about the popular vote. It has nothing to do with anything. There is a reason the founders avoided the popular vote. Today it is still a bad idea for anyone that lives in therest of country outside the giant population centers. We, who live elsewhere do not need California, Illinois, NYC and a few other states electing the President.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Regardless of how the electoral votes come out, it's worth noting that the Republican Party has lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes for the presidency, which is a fairly historic run and a clear repudiation of their policies and candidates. This coming election will, in all likelihood, make it 7 out of the last 8.
It has never really bothered me that the Dems own California and New York. Regardless of where I have lived, I have never aspired to be like those places and I've always been baffled why so many Minnesotans are so comfortable letting the party of NY/CA decide what's best for them
 

Bad Gopher

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I think what you're seeing in the tightening of the polls is a certain sector of the swing vote developing cold feet about leaving their abusive partner, and the reason is fear. The fear mongering about Biden/Harris is in full swing now, and there's a swath of people who are susceptible to it--who fall for the line that there'll be a plague of locusts o'er the Earth the day after they take office. And the weird part is that there's a REAL plague going on, and these voters will take that-- the devil they know, the mismanagement of the pandemic, the tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths including perhaps people they know and love, the shame and ridicule of our country by the rest of the civilized world--over a new leadership because they've been scared by dishonest propaganda from a lifelong con artist. If this is truly the state of the electorate...it's been said before: a country gets the leadership it deserves.
 

Bad Gopher

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Wow. Over/under on Beeg/CRG posting "research" about how this political Trump appointee is a secret Deep State Leftist: 2 hours.
With all due respect, my advice is to stop worrying or even caring or even paying attention to what clowns like that guy say. It's not worth the paper it's written on, and it's not even written on paper.
 

Blizzard

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the reason is fear. The fear mongering about Biden/Harris is in full swing now, and there's a swath of people who are susceptible to it--who fall for the line that there'll be a plague of locusts o'er the Earth the day after they take office.
And the weird part is that there's a REAL plague going on, and these voters will take that-- the devil they know, the mismanagement of the pandemic, the tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths including perhaps people they know and love, the shame and ridicule of our country by the rest of the civilized world--over a new leadership because they've been scared by dishonest propaganda from a lifelong con artist. If this is truly the state of the electorate.
:)
 

Bad Gopher

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It has never really bothered me that the Dems own California and New York. Regardless of where I have lived, I have never aspired to be like those places and I've always been baffled why so many Minnesotans are so comfortable letting the party of NY/CA decide what's best for them
I guess you either think we're one country or you don't. I do. I love every inch of this place, and I think NY and California are awesome. Nothing against Las Vegas, but New York might be the greatest city in the world, and I adore Los Angeles and visit there whenever I can. We wouldn't be half the country we are without its world-class cities and their great people. I think you know in your heart that they're the engines of innovation and creativity that make the whole thing go and allow Trump country the luxury of enjoying a high standard of living, meanwhile thinking it's all about them when it's really not.
 

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I guess you either think we're one country or you don't. I do. I love every inch of this place, and I think NY and California are awesome. Nothing against Las Vegas, but New York might be the greatest city in the world, and I adore Los Angeles and visit there whenever I can. We wouldn't be half the country we are without its world-class cities and their great people. I think you know in your heart that they're the engines of innovation and creativity that make the whole thing go and allow Trump country the luxury of enjoying a high standard of living, meanwhile thinking it's all about them when it's really not.
Yet you are willing to throw it all away, allowing leftists to ruin it, as they are doing now and will do. All of this because you are consumed with hatred for one man. You don't even know why.
 

Bad Gopher

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I believe that the right wingers, at least in this forum, know the country's not in a good place and not heading in a good direction. I think they also know that they're in as much danger of being hurt by these failed policies and actions/inactions as any of the rest of us are--if they haven't been already.
 

LesBolstad

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I believe that the right wingers, at least in this forum, know the country's not in a good place and not heading in a good direction. I think they also know that they're in as much danger of being hurt by these failed policies and actions/inactions as any of the rest of us are--if they haven't been already.
Wrong, the Right is most worried about the whole country turning into the shitholes our major cities are morphing into.
 
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Bad Gopher

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Wrong, the Right is most worried about the whole country turning into the shitholes our major cities are morphing into.
You think they're already shitholes, and Trump has been president for four years.

Reminds me of one morning in 2008. I was in McDonald's for breakfast, overhearing a conversation nearby between some angry old guys. One of them said something like, "If you want gas to be $4 a gallon, go ahead and vote for Obama," and I looked outside at the gas station next door, where the price was around $4 a gallon.
 
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howeda7

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You think they're already shitholes, and Trump has been president for four years.

Reminds me of one morning in 2004. I was in McDonald's for breakfast, overhearing a conversation nearby between some angry old guys. One of them said something like, "If you want gas to be $4 a gallon, go ahead and vote for Obama," and I looked outside at the gas station next door, where the price was around $4 a gallon.
Angry or not, did you ask them for the lotto #'s? :cool:
 

Bad Gopher

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Maybe it is time to stop talking about the popular vote. It has nothing to do with anything. There is a reason the founders avoided the popular vote. Today it is still a bad idea for anyone that lives in therest of country outside the giant population centers. We, who live elsewhere do not need California, Illinois, NYC and a few other states electing the President.
Once in the last 32 yyears. Chew on that. No deflection by changing the subject to the byzantine and arbitrary EC system will change this fact.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Once in the last 32 yyears. Chew on that. No deflection by changing the subject to the byzantine and arbitrary EC system will change this fact.
I can't be the only one to see the irony with the recent to-do about the EC; the left has always thought of themselves as the party of inclusion, everyone is equal, everyone deserves an equal voice, but wants to tell places like Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Kansas, et al that they don't mean nearly as much as the folks who live in more densely populated states.

You'll forgive me if I think this seems really f'd up
 

justthefacts

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I can't be the only one to see the irony with the recent to-do about the EC; the left has always thought of themselves as the party of inclusion, everyone is equal, everyone deserves an equal voice, but wants to tell places like Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Kansas, et al that they don't mean nearly as much as the folks who live in more densely populated states.

You'll forgive me if I think this seems really f'd up
Actually, it's the exact opposite. In the popular vote everyone's vote is worth the exact same. With the EC, some votes are worth more than others.

You'll forgive me if I think this seems really f'd up
 

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Actually, it's the exact opposite. In the popular vote everyone's vote is worth the exact same. With the EC, some votes are worth more than others.

You'll forgive me if I think this seems really f'd up
My only question is it ignorance of or contempt for the constitution that feeds the movement to abolish the electoral college?
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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My only question is it ignorance of or contempt for the constitution that feeds the movement to abolish the electoral college?
Losers always need an excuse for losing. It's never to look inward. LOSERS are going to look for any outlying source to attribute their losses. You should be more sensitive to some of these folks; they've been living with being losers for over 3.5 years, for some of them a lot longer than that
 

WhoFellDownTheGopherHole?

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Is this even possible?

Not really. I mean, unless you just make up some numbers and add them in...which is exactly what is done for that poll.

"The Trafalgar Group’s surveys have been showing a tighter race in the battlegrounds than other pollsters have found.

The outlet weights its polls to account for a “social desirability bias,” or the so-called shy Trump voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters they support his candidacy.
"

I mean, you gotta make up votes on the position that people are EMBARRASSED to show their support?Seems like that ought to say enough right there.
 

Go4Broke

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RCP National Average - Latest Polls

Top Battlegrounds: Trump vs. Biden

RCP AverageDateBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
Top Battlegrounds8/2148.644.4Biden +4.2
WisconsinAugust 21st50.043.5Biden +6.5
North CarolinaAugust 21st46.447.0Trump +0.6
FloridaAugust 21st50.345.3Biden +5.0
PennsylvaniaAugust 21st49.543.8Biden +5.7
MichiganAugust 21st48.742.0Biden +6.7
ArizonaAugust 21st47.045.0Biden +2.0



General Election: Trump vs. Biden

RCP Electoral Map | No Toss Up Map | RCP Senate Map | Senate NTU Map | RCP House Map | Latest Polls


Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average8/6 - 8/18----49.942.3Biden +7.6
Economist/YouGov8/16 - 8/181246 RV3.45040Biden +10
Rasmussen Reports8/12 - 8/182500 LV2.04844Biden +4
The Hill/HarrisX8/11 - 8/142823 RV1.84539Biden +6
CNN8/12 - 8/15987 RV4.05046Biden +4
ABC News/Wash Post8/12 - 8/15707 LV--5444Biden +10
CBS News/YouGov8/12 - 8/142152 LV2.45242Biden +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl8/9 - 8/12900 RV3.35041Biden +9
FOX News8/9 - 8/121000 RV3.04942Biden +7
CNBC/Change Research (D)*8/7 - 8/92143 LV2.15044Biden +6
Monmouth*8/6 - 8/10785 RV3.55141Biden +10
 
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justthefacts

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My only question is it ignorance of or contempt for the constitution that feeds the movement to abolish the electoral college?
A) Ogee was saying the EC makes every vote equal, but that's obviously and categorically false and I pointed that out. The fact that he pivoted to talking about losers and excuses makes it clear he recognizes this now despite his previous righteous indignation.

B) The Constitution has been amended 27 times. Do you think that it was "contempt for the Constitution" that led to women being granted the right to vote?
 

diehard

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A) Ogee was saying the EC makes every vote equal, but that's obviously and categorically false and I pointed that out. The fact that he pivoted to talking about losers and excuses makes it clear he recognizes this now despite his previous righteous indignation.

B) The Constitution has been amended 27 times. Do you think that it was "contempt for the Constitution" that led to women being granted the right to vote?
Yes, it is both. Ignorance and contempt for the Constitution. Heavy on the ignorance which runs deeper than just ignorance. Also frustration from knowing he is a loser.
 

cjbfbp

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RCP National Average - Latest Polls

Top Battlegrounds: Trump vs. Biden

RCP AverageDateBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
Top Battlegrounds8/2148.644.4Biden +4.2
WisconsinAugust 21st50.043.5Biden +6.5
North CarolinaAugust 21st46.447.0Trump +0.6
FloridaAugust 21st50.345.3Biden +5.0
PennsylvaniaAugust 21st49.543.8Biden +5.7
MichiganAugust 21st48.742.0Biden +6.7
ArizonaAugust 21st47.045.0Biden +2.0






General Election: Trump vs. Biden

RCP Electoral Map | No Toss Up Map | RCP Senate Map | Senate NTU Map | RCP House Map | Latest Polls


Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average8/6 - 8/18----49.942.3Biden +7.6
Economist/YouGov8/16 - 8/181246 RV3.45040Biden +10
Rasmussen Reports8/12 - 8/182500 LV2.04844Biden +4
The Hill/HarrisX8/11 - 8/142823 RV1.84539Biden +6
CNN8/12 - 8/15987 RV4.05046Biden +4
ABC News/Wash Post8/12 - 8/15707 LV--5444Biden +10
CBS News/YouGov8/12 - 8/142152 LV2.45242Biden +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl8/9 - 8/12900 RV3.35041Biden +9
FOX News8/9 - 8/121000 RV3.04942Biden +7
CNBC/Change Research (D)*8/7 - 8/92143 LV2.15044Biden +6
Monmouth*8/6 - 8/10785 RV3.55141Biden +10
There is a bit of cause for concern. The last three polls from PA (by different pollsters) available on 538 each had a 4% Biden lead. That's important because 1) PA likely is the tipping state and 2) that lead is within the margin of error. Although not impossible, it's hard to imagine losing PA while winning Florida (winning Florida, of course, pretty much would put the election in the bag for Biden). The good news is that Biden also has a fair chance of winning states like Ohio and North Carolina.
 

justthefacts

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Yes, it is both. Ignorance and contempt for the Constitution. Heavy on the ignorance which runs deeper than just ignorance. Also frustration from knowing he is a loser.
Just to be clear diehard is saying that granting women the right to vote represented ignorance and contempt for the Constitution. OK.

 

howeda7

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RCP National Average - Latest Polls

Top Battlegrounds: Trump vs. Biden

RCP AverageDateBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
Top Battlegrounds8/2148.644.4Biden +4.2
WisconsinAugust 21st50.043.5Biden +6.5
North CarolinaAugust 21st46.447.0Trump +0.6
FloridaAugust 21st50.345.3Biden +5.0
PennsylvaniaAugust 21st49.543.8Biden +5.7
MichiganAugust 21st48.742.0Biden +6.7
ArizonaAugust 21st47.045.0Biden +2.0



General Election: Trump vs. Biden

RCP Electoral Map | No Toss Up Map | RCP Senate Map | Senate NTU Map | RCP House Map | Latest Polls


Polling Data
PollDateSampleMoEBiden (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average8/6 - 8/18----49.942.3Biden +7.6
Economist/YouGov8/16 - 8/181246 RV3.45040Biden +10
Rasmussen Reports8/12 - 8/182500 LV2.04844Biden +4
The Hill/HarrisX8/11 - 8/142823 RV1.84539Biden +6
CNN8/12 - 8/15987 RV4.05046Biden +4
ABC News/Wash Post8/12 - 8/15707 LV--5444Biden +10
CBS News/YouGov8/12 - 8/142152 LV2.45242Biden +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl8/9 - 8/12900 RV3.35041Biden +9
FOX News8/9 - 8/121000 RV3.04942Biden +7
CNBC/Change Research (D)*8/7 - 8/92143 LV2.15044Biden +6
Monmouth*8/6 - 8/10785 RV3.55141Biden +10
Down 5 in the 4 key swing states. Down 8 overall. Yep. All signs point to a Trump landslide!
 

diehard

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Just to be clear diehard is saying that granting women the right to vote represented ignorance and contempt for the Constitution. OK.

No constitutional provision asserts that there is a right to vote; only that states cannot deny the right to vote based on the above-mentioned criteria. As Vanessa A. Bee and Oren Nimni, contributors to Current Affairs, so eloquently write, “It’s not so much that we’re entitled to vote, the Constitution tells us: Rather, we are guaranteed freedom from some voting interference on the basis of some reasons.”

The voting privilege was extended to women. Not a right. To believe so is ignorance and contempt for the constitution. Sooo... WTF?
 

cjbfbp

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Maybe it is time to stop talking about the popular vote. It has nothing to do with anything.

We, who live elsewhere do not need California, Illinois, NYC and a few other states electing the President.
The first statement is absurd. A rising tide lifts all boats. I don't see a scenario where Trump can lose the popular vote by 6% or 7% and win the electoral college. We know he can do it with losing the popular vote by less than 3% but even pulling that off again is questionable.

As to the second statement, I don't know where you live but I live in Minnesota, a state that has voted for the Democratic nominee in every election since 1972 (more times than those states you mentioned) so I would say that the majority of Minnesotans should be irked about Mississippi, the Dakotas, and Idaho having a disproportionate number of electoral votes to decide the presidential winner.
 
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