New swing-state polls released: If the election was held today Biden would win in a landslide

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Praying??? Joe is trying to settle himself down and collect his thoughts so he can remember where he is before he goes in front of the mic again. I don't think you know how much concentration and effort that takes
 

justthefacts

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If you don't like polls, then I have some info for you

 

justthefacts

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This could never happen, right?

I really like, " Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission." "

Yes, you see in the last poll I lied and said I didn't support Donald Trump, but now I'm telling the truth about how I love him.
 

USAF

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I really like, " Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission." "

Yes, you see in the last poll I lied and said I didn't support Donald Trump, but now I'm telling the truth about how I love him.
Actually, I think he's got a point. There are plenty of right wingers who support Trymp, will vote for him, but are ashamed to admit it. We have several here. Spoof, for example.
 

howeda7

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Actually, I think he's got a point. There are plenty of right wingers who support Trymp, will vote for him, but are ashamed to admit it. We have several here. Spoof, for example.
If this board was representative, Gary Johnson would have gotten 30% of the vote in MN.
 

USAF

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If this board was representative, Gary Johnson would have gotten 30% of the vote in MN.
I think maybe you meant if the fellas on this board could be trusted to tell the truth
 

howeda7

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Step aside Michigan and Wisconsin. Don doesn't need you!

 

cjbfbp

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I really like, " Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission." "

Yes, you see in the last poll I lied and said I didn't support Donald Trump, but now I'm telling the truth about how I love him.
Here's a line from the story that appears to be an article of faith among the right ------

"So it makes sense to ignore the pollsters, the online bookies and the exports who were dead wrong in 2016, and focus on those who called it right."

Have these people never heard the expression "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." 2020 is fundamentally a different race from 2016 because the earlier one had no incumbent. This one has an incumbent who lost the popular vote by almost 3 million and is significantly less popular today than he was then.

Based on Trump's 2016 percentages in PA, WI, MI, and FL, Biden would need to pick up only 2% or fewer of his supporters across those states to win all four of them and the presidency easily.
 

howeda7

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Here's a line from the story that appears to be an article of faith among the right ------

"So it makes sense to ignore the pollsters, the online bookies and the exports who were dead wrong in 2016, and focus on those who called it right."

Have these people never heard the expression "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." 2020 is fundamentally a different race from 2016 because the earlier one had no incumbent. This one has an incumbent who lost the popular vote by almost 3 million and is significantly less popular today than he was then.

Based on Trump's 2016 percentages in PA, WI, MI, and FL, Biden would need to pick up only 2% or fewer of his supporters across those states to win all four of them and the presidency easily.
If you want to tell me that the polls skew 2-3% towards Biden, I can buy that. Currently Biden is narrowly ahead in NC and OH. I don't think he would actually win them if the election was today. But Trump is 5-7+% behind in MI, WI, PA and FL. He needs all the polls in almost all of those states be massively off. It's possible. It's not likely.

The 2016 polls in PA and FL had both as toss-ups and they were. They missed MI and WI. But nothing that's happened since (Dem governors elected in both states) suggests they're that far off again.
 

cjbfbp

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If you want to tell me that the polls skew 2-3% towards Biden, I can buy that. Currently Biden is narrowly ahead in NC and OH. I don't think he would actually win them if the election was today. But Trump is 5-7+% behind in MI, WI, PA and FL. He needs all the polls in almost all of those states be massively off. It's possible. It's not likely.

The 2016 polls in PA and FL had both as toss-ups and they were. They missed MI and WI. But nothing that's happened since (Dem governors elected in both states) suggests they're that far off again.
Agreed. I haven't seen a single poll in PA, FL, MI, and WI showing Trump ahead. Florida is also helped by the declining popularity of its governor who tied himself so closely to Trump.
 

Panthadad2

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Here's the RCP top battleground polling comparison to 2016. Very similar as of today. I'm curious what the betting line was back in 2016 in mid-August. Regardless, this year is so unique that I'm not sure past history is a significant indicator for today. Personally, I'm selfishly more concerned with the Senate than the Presidential race.

battleground 2016.png
 

howeda7

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Here's the RCP top battleground polling comparison to 2016. Very similar as of today. I'm curious what the betting line was back in 2016 in mid-August. Regardless, this year is so unique that I'm not sure past history is a significant indicator for today. Personally, I'm selfishly more concerned with the Senate than the Presidential race.

View attachment 9110
I could be wrong, but states like GA and TX are now being included as "battlegrounds" and were not in 2016. (GA might have been, but I'm pretty sure Texas wasn't.) If you did the same states as 2016, the 2020 % would be bigger.
 

Panthadad2

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I could be wrong, but states like GA and TX are now being included as "battlegrounds" and were not in 2016. (GA might have been, but I'm pretty sure Texas wasn't.) If you did the same states as 2016, the 2020 % would be bigger.
The RCP headline that I cropped read:

Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona
 

Bad Gopher

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Regardless of how the electoral votes come out, it's worth noting that the Republican Party has lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes for the presidency, which is a fairly historic run and a clear repudiation of their policies and candidates. This coming election will, in all likelihood, make it 7 out of the last 8.
 

bga1

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The Democrat party has amazing marketing- the media- and a horrible product. The sales pitch brings the people in, but the enthusiasm tends to wane when when the product is revealed.
 
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