Trump’s Policy Towards Iran as a Failure of New American Unilateralism
Campaigning on a nationalist vision of the United States as a country being misused by other countries, Donald Trump promised to bring upon significant changes to the international order. His primary tool for achieving this has been an abandonment of multilateral arrangements.
Under Trump’s leadership, the US withdrew from the Universal Postal Union, the UNESCO, and has effectively blocked the dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has weaponized tariffs using them as an extortion tool in negotiations with Mexico and China and has threatened to use them against other countries as well.
The JCPOA was a deal that would stop the nuclear enrichment of Iran by imposing – among other measures – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in exchange for elimination of the sanctions. The deal was criticized from the onset from Israel and many in the Republican Party of the US for the main reason that according to them Iran, quite simply, does not have an incentive to abide to it and that it will sooner or later pursue a nuclear program.
From the moment he reintroduced the sanctions Trump changed his rhetoric towards Iran. Threats of military escalation were combined with the invocations of “good people of Iran” and calls to “make Iran great again.” Additionally, a list of demands that, if executed, would lead to
a decrease in power that Iran enjoys in the Middle East were added to the JCPOA conditionality. However, the Iranian government openly refused this calls for negotiations calling Trump
a mentally ill person. Encouraged by his success in courting another pariah state, North Korea, Trump was hoping to establish a rapport with Iran overestimating the impact of the sanctions and their willingness to evade them.
Iran relied on its ability to withstand the sanctions perhaps hoping for a regime change in the White House by 2020. Actions taken by the EU which sought to establish a trade vehicle that would bypass the US sanctions in order to allow for humanitarian trade (INSTEX) that were supported by Russia have sent a signal that the rest of Western democracies are willing to preserve the deal. Despite enormous difficulties,
China kept buying Iranian oil. Thus, what Trump achieved so far was pleasing his base in the Republican Party but not too many other people.
It seems that Trump lost sight of the grand goal that he is pursuing, which is a non-nuclear, less regionally present Iran. He also failed to consider the history of US negotiations with Iran. Simply replacing a multilateral regime with a bargaining game may work for the US as it may use the international legal obligations to its interest. But, without a willingness to either engage Iran militarily or
support a credible opposition to the regime the goals of the US will not be achieved through sanctions.
https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubbli...iran-failure-new-american-unilateralism-23782