Looks like Iran Sanctions have Failed

Wally

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China, With $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast​

The countries signed a sweeping pact on Saturday that calls for heavy Chinese investments in Iran over 25 years in exchange for oil — a step that could ease Iran’s international isolation.
 

Go4Broke

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China, With $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast​

The countries signed a sweeping pact on Saturday that calls for heavy Chinese investments in Iran over 25 years in exchange for oil — a step that could ease Iran’s international isolation.

It needs to be stated that the Iran sanctions that failed are Trump's. Obama's sanctions were working until Trump screwed the whole thing up (just like he did with China, Russia, and North Korea).

Gaslighting Can’t Obscure Trump’s Iran Failures

By nearly every measure, the decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—has backfired against U.S. interests. This underscores the urgency of revitalizing the accord, as both President Elect Biden and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani appear intent on doing.

From Implementation Day in January 2016 until May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran adhered to its nuclear obligations as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Uranium enrichment was limited to the facility at Natanz, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was capped and limited to low levels. The IAEA, as well, had expansive access to Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring progress in real time and conducting dozens of “complementary access” visits each year under the Additional Protocol to verify information or investigate unresolved issues.

While Trump promised to work with allies on “a real, comprehensive, and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat,” his withdrawal caused a major break with our former negotiating partners while unraveling hard-fought diplomatic gains. Responding to the administration’s violations of the accord, Iran halted its own compliance with various limits under the deal.

Iran has resumed uranium enrichment at the deeply buried Fordow site, blown past limits on its stockpile, and recently resumed enrichment to 20 percent for the first time since 2013, before the interim nuclear deal struck under the Obama administration. Iran’s breakout time—the time it would take Iran to enrich sufficient fissile material for a single nuclear weapon—has dropped from over a year under the JCPOA to a few months. Moreover, Iran’s parliament has mandated limits on IAEA inspector access and ever-growing stockpiles of uranium if the U.S. fails to return to the deal.


Many hoped that the nuclear deal would allow, over time, further diplomatic agreements and a reduction to the repressive security environment in Iran. This notion was never truly tested: the deal was only implemented for a year before Trump assumed office, began undermining the deal, and started lobbing threats at Iran. However, moderates did make significant gains amid the deal’s implementation. Most notably, moderates and reformists triumphed in the 2016 parliamentary elections, with a reformist-backed slate securing victory in all 30 seats allocated to Tehran. The next year, Rouhani squared off against a hardline candidate in Ebrahim Raisi, and defeated him decisively and won a mandate to continue his moderate approach.

The decision to withdraw from the deal and impose crushing sanctions on Iran reversed these dynamics, undermining moderates who had made consistent but methodical gains under the JCPOA while vindicating hardliners who warned the U.S. could not be trusted. Far from topple the regime or force it to bend the knee, these sanctions decimated ordinary Iranians who suffered from skyrocketing inflation and unemployment even before the onset of pandemic.

The architects of Trump’s foreign policy will want it to continue. However, that approach has delivered nothing but failure, as Iran’s nuclear program has advanced, threats to America’s security in the Middle East have grown and hardliners appear poised for further gains in Iran’s domestic politics.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/01/gaslighting-cant-obscure-trumps-iran-failures/171419/
 

golf

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It needs to be stated that the Iran sanctions that failed are Trump's. Obama's sanctions were working until Trump screwed the whole thing up (just like he did with China, Russia, and North Korea).

Gaslighting Can’t Obscure Trump’s Iran Failures

By nearly every measure, the decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—has backfired against U.S. interests. This underscores the urgency of revitalizing the accord, as both President Elect Biden and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani appear intent on doing.

From Implementation Day in January 2016 until May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran adhered to its nuclear obligations as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Uranium enrichment was limited to the facility at Natanz, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was capped and limited to low levels. The IAEA, as well, had expansive access to Iran’s nuclear program, monitoring progress in real time and conducting dozens of “complementary access” visits each year under the Additional Protocol to verify information or investigate unresolved issues.

While Trump promised to work with allies on “a real, comprehensive, and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat,” his withdrawal caused a major break with our former negotiating partners while unraveling hard-fought diplomatic gains. Responding to the administration’s violations of the accord, Iran halted its own compliance with various limits under the deal.

Iran has resumed uranium enrichment at the deeply buried Fordow site, blown past limits on its stockpile, and recently resumed enrichment to 20 percent for the first time since 2013, before the interim nuclear deal struck under the Obama administration. Iran’s breakout time—the time it would take Iran to enrich sufficient fissile material for a single nuclear weapon—has dropped from over a year under the JCPOA to a few months. Moreover, Iran’s parliament has mandated limits on IAEA inspector access and ever-growing stockpiles of uranium if the U.S. fails to return to the deal.


Many hoped that the nuclear deal would allow, over time, further diplomatic agreements and a reduction to the repressive security environment in Iran. This notion was never truly tested: the deal was only implemented for a year before Trump assumed office, began undermining the deal, and started lobbing threats at Iran. However, moderates did make significant gains amid the deal’s implementation. Most notably, moderates and reformists triumphed in the 2016 parliamentary elections, with a reformist-backed slate securing victory in all 30 seats allocated to Tehran. The next year, Rouhani squared off against a hardline candidate in Ebrahim Raisi, and defeated him decisively and won a mandate to continue his moderate approach.

The decision to withdraw from the deal and impose crushing sanctions on Iran reversed these dynamics, undermining moderates who had made consistent but methodical gains under the JCPOA while vindicating hardliners who warned the U.S. could not be trusted. Far from topple the regime or force it to bend the knee, these sanctions decimated ordinary Iranians who suffered from skyrocketing inflation and unemployment even before the onset of pandemic.

The architects of Trump’s foreign policy will want it to continue. However, that approach has delivered nothing but failure, as Iran’s nuclear program has advanced, threats to America’s security in the Middle East have grown and hardliners appear poised for further gains in Iran’s domestic politics.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/01/gaslighting-cant-obscure-trumps-iran-failures/171419/


Fraid not. Of all Trump's policies that benefitted our country, middle east may be the one one that resonates the most over time. Even Tom Friedman agrees.

 

Go4Broke

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Trump's Iran Policy Of ‘Maximum Pressure' Failed

Two developments in the Persian Gulf have highlighted one of the major foreign policy issues facing president-elect, Joe Biden, when he takes office on January 20: how to deal with Iran. The Pentagon’s recent deployment of two additional B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf on January 7 was followed a day later by the inauguration by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard of a new strategic missile base capable of “resisting against enemies’ electronic warfare equipment”.

Most recently, we have seen this through Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure”, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insists is about helping the Iranian people “change course”. By equating the threat posed by Iran to that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the United States continues to waste superfluous material resource and diplomatic capital which could otherwise be expended on more salient foreign policy issues.

Trump’s maximum pressure campaign aimed to force Iran to the negotiating table as it faced the risk of going bankrupt or capitulating to Washington’s demands. Unfortunately, this assumption also refused to acknowledge Iran’s ability to resist sanctions measures and retaliate with pressures of its own.

Iran’s answer to Trump comes in the form of maximum resistance. Leadership in Tehran is swayed by the idea that regional escalation and nuclear non-compliance are more profitable than compliance and restraint. Rather than render itself bankrupt, Iran has sought to capture America’s attention with new military escalations, managing the threat to oil flow in the Gulf and gradually moving away from the JCPOA by resuming uranium enrichment.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, has stated that the solution to western pressure was to develop an “economy of resistance” to lessen the country’s reliance on oil revenues. While this has not protected Iran from external shocks such as oil price fluctuations and sanctions, the country’s economy has made some modest gains. Production of steel, aluminium, copper and electricity has hugely expanded. Iranian tactics aim to promote self-reliance – in a nutshell, it’s business as usual.

Not only has Trump’s strategy failed to bring Iran to the negotiating table, the Pentagon’s deployment of nearly 3,000 additional troops to the region as well as an extra squadron of fighter planes to Saudi Arabia puts American personnel at risk. Tehran continues to launch attacks on American diplomatic missions and Iraqi military bases, as seen in the Iranian-backed militia’s rocket attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad in December. It is precisely this that makes Iran a threat to the United States.

https://theconversation.com/iran-us...why-the-west-needs-to-re-engage-tehran-153011
 

Go4Broke

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Trump’s Policy Towards Iran as a Failure of New American Unilateralism

Campaigning on a nationalist vision of the United States as a country being misused by other countries, Donald Trump promised to bring upon significant changes to the international order. His primary tool for achieving this has been an abandonment of multilateral arrangements.

Under Trump’s leadership, the US withdrew from the Universal Postal Union, the UNESCO, and has effectively blocked the dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has weaponized tariffs using them as an extortion tool in negotiations with Mexico and China and has threatened to use them against other countries as well.

The JCPOA was a deal that would stop the nuclear enrichment of Iran by imposing – among other measures – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in exchange for elimination of the sanctions. The deal was criticized from the onset from Israel and many in the Republican Party of the US for the main reason that according to them Iran, quite simply, does not have an incentive to abide to it and that it will sooner or later pursue a nuclear program.

From the moment he reintroduced the sanctions Trump changed his rhetoric towards Iran. Threats of military escalation were combined with the invocations of “good people of Iran” and calls to “make Iran great again.” Additionally, a list of demands that, if executed, would lead to a decrease in power that Iran enjoys in the Middle East were added to the JCPOA conditionality. However, the Iranian government openly refused this calls for negotiations calling Trump a mentally ill person. Encouraged by his success in courting another pariah state, North Korea, Trump was hoping to establish a rapport with Iran overestimating the impact of the sanctions and their willingness to evade them.

Iran relied on its ability to withstand the sanctions perhaps hoping for a regime change in the White House by 2020. Actions taken by the EU which sought to establish a trade vehicle that would bypass the US sanctions in order to allow for humanitarian trade (INSTEX) that were supported by Russia have sent a signal that the rest of Western democracies are willing to preserve the deal. Despite enormous difficulties, China kept buying Iranian oil. Thus, what Trump achieved so far was pleasing his base in the Republican Party but not too many other people.

It seems that Trump lost sight of the grand goal that he is pursuing, which is a non-nuclear, less regionally present Iran. He also failed to consider the history of US negotiations with Iran. Simply replacing a multilateral regime with a bargaining game may work for the US as it may use the international legal obligations to its interest. But, without a willingness to either engage Iran militarily or support a credible opposition to the regime the goals of the US will not be achieved through sanctions.

https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubbli...iran-failure-new-american-unilateralism-23782
 

golf

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Trump’s Policy Towards Iran as a Failure of New American Unilateralism

Campaigning on a nationalist vision of the United States as a country being misused by other countries, Donald Trump promised to bring upon significant changes to the international order. His primary tool for achieving this has been an abandonment of multilateral arrangements.

Under Trump’s leadership, the US withdrew from the Universal Postal Union, the UNESCO, and has effectively blocked the dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has weaponized tariffs using them as an extortion tool in negotiations with Mexico and China and has threatened to use them against other countries as well.

The JCPOA was a deal that would stop the nuclear enrichment of Iran by imposing – among other measures – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in exchange for elimination of the sanctions. The deal was criticized from the onset from Israel and many in the Republican Party of the US for the main reason that according to them Iran, quite simply, does not have an incentive to abide to it and that it will sooner or later pursue a nuclear program.

From the moment he reintroduced the sanctions Trump changed his rhetoric towards Iran. Threats of military escalation were combined with the invocations of “good people of Iran” and calls to “make Iran great again.” Additionally, a list of demands that, if executed, would lead to a decrease in power that Iran enjoys in the Middle East were added to the JCPOA conditionality. However, the Iranian government openly refused this calls for negotiations calling Trump a mentally ill person. Encouraged by his success in courting another pariah state, North Korea, Trump was hoping to establish a rapport with Iran overestimating the impact of the sanctions and their willingness to evade them.

Iran relied on its ability to withstand the sanctions perhaps hoping for a regime change in the White House by 2020. Actions taken by the EU which sought to establish a trade vehicle that would bypass the US sanctions in order to allow for humanitarian trade (INSTEX) that were supported by Russia have sent a signal that the rest of Western democracies are willing to preserve the deal. Despite enormous difficulties, China kept buying Iranian oil. Thus, what Trump achieved so far was pleasing his base in the Republican Party but not too many other people.

It seems that Trump lost sight of the grand goal that he is pursuing, which is a non-nuclear, less regionally present Iran. He also failed to consider the history of US negotiations with Iran. Simply replacing a multilateral regime with a bargaining game may work for the US as it may use the international legal obligations to its interest. But, without a willingness to either engage Iran militarily or support a credible opposition to the regime the goals of the US will not be achieved through sanctions.

https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubbli...iran-failure-new-american-unilateralism-23782

Ok, so you have copied and pasted 3 articles/blogs. Nedim Hogic and Ellis Mallett authored 2 of them and both have zero bona fides. They are working on phds and i would challenge you to find anything that would suggest they are experts in this or any other field. Ryan Costello, your 3rd author, is a virulent republican anti-trumper who is looking at running for congress.

Nothing wrong with cutting and pasting i suppose but you need to find sources that at least bring a degree of heft to the conversation. Two arab nations had previously recognized israel: egypt in 1979 and jordan in 1994. Trump got 4 arab countries to recognize israel. A fifth, Saudi Arabia, now allows israel to use its airspace. Even Tom Friedman says trump done good.

A word of advice. You are going to struggle trying to find articles that reasonably attack trump policies. Will have better luck attacking such as his personality/tweets.
 
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Go4Broke

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Nothing wrong with cutting and pasting i suppose but you need to find sources that at least bring a degree of heft to the conversation. Two arab nations had previously recognized israel: egypt in 1979 and jordan in 1994. Trump got 4 arab countries to recognize israel. A fifth, Saudi Arabia, now allows israel to use its airspace. Even Tom Friedman says trump done good.

LOL. I see you have learned the best way to deal with serious and substantive articles on a subject is just to ignore them. Typical internet behavior.

Jared Kushner's so-called peace deals in the Middle East aren't going to last beyond the first shot in a Middle Eastern war involving Israel. Among Iran's first actions in the war will be to shut down the Suez Canal and stop the free flow oil to the rest of the world. The entire world economy will grind to a halt.

War with Iran will have world-wide ramifications and both China and Russia will support Iran. Trump's destruction of the Iranian nuclear deal was going to make that far more likely to happen. And his peace deals with second rate Arab countries aren't worth the paper they are written on.

Trump's flurry of dodgy deals will not bring the Middle East any peace

By agreeing to normalise relations with Israel, the UAE and Bahrain broke with the 2002 Arab peace plan that makes recognition conditional on the creation of a viable, independent Palestinian state. The deal was sweetened with offers of advanced US weapons and money-spinning business and trade opportunities. Neither regime could be counted on in the event of war between Israel and their mutual enemy, Iran – part of the deal’s supposed raison d’etre.

Trump also recently bullied Sudan into embracing Israel in return for lifting a veto on desperately needed assistance from the World Bank and IMF. Khartoum first had to pay $335m the US said it owed to American victims of terrorism. Sudan has also been taken off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

To secure Morocco’s formal recognition of Israel this month, he reneged on a decades-old US commitment to a UN-supervised independence referendum in disputed, mostly Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara – and unconditionally recognised Rabat’s sovereignty over the entire area. In doing so, he ignored UN resolutions and failed to consult Sahrawis, neighbouring Algeria, Mauritania, the African Union (AU), or the EU. The immediate, predictable reaction of the Polisario Front, the Western Sahara independence movement that proclaimed the AU-backed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 1976, was to declare a resumption of hostilities with Morocco, ending a 29-year ceasefire. Like the Palestinians, Sahrawis trusted the international community’s promises. Like them, they have been betrayed. Few in the wider world appear to have even noticed. Not everyone in Washington is looking the other way. In an excoriating critique, John Bolton, Trump’s sacked national security adviser, said his old boss had thrown the Sahrawi people “under the bus”. Trump’s rash decision risked reigniting a frozen conflict in a combustible region on the edge of the Sahel that is vulnerable to Islamist jihadist influence. Fighting has not yet resumed but may do so imminently, he suggested.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...eals-will-not-bring-the-middle-east-any-peace
 
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Costa Rican Gopher

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No surprise that China waited until their guy Joe Biden was in charge to do this. Strategically timed no doubt on the heels of the public ass kicking they gave Blinken & Sullivan last week in Alaska, their proxy North Korea mocking Biden, Putin cquestioning Biden's mental capacity, challenging him to a public debate & Biden being blown over on the stairs three times. The world knows Biden is compromised by China & America is weak now.
 

golf

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LOL. I see you have learned the best way to deal with serious and substantive articles on a subject is just to ignore them. Typical internet behavior.

Jared Kushner's so-called peace deals in the Middle East aren't going to last beyond the first shot in a Middle Eastern war involving Israel. Among Iran's first actions in the war will be to shut down the Suez Canal and stop the free flow oil to the rest of the world. The entire world economy will grind to a halt. Trump's destruction of the Iranian nucleal deal was going to make that far more likely to happen. His peace deals with second rate Arab countries aren't worth the paper they are written on.

Trump's flurry of dodgy deals will not bring the Middle East any peace

By agreeing to normalise relations with Israel, the UAE and Bahrain broke with the 2002 Arab peace plan that makes recognition conditional on the creation of a viable, independent Palestinian state. The deal was sweetened with offers of advanced US weapons and money-spinning business and trade opportunities. Neither regime could be counted on in the event of war between Israel and their mutual enemy, Iran – part of the deal’s supposed raison d’etre.

Trump also recently bullied Sudan into embracing Israel in return for lifting a veto on desperately needed assistance from the World Bank and IMF. Khartoum first had to pay $335m the US said it owed to American victims of terrorism. Sudan has also been taken off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

To secure Morocco’s formal recognition of Israel this month, he reneged on a decades-old US commitment to a UN-supervised independence referendum in disputed, mostly Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara – and unconditionally recognised Rabat’s sovereignty over the entire area. In doing so, he ignored UN resolutions and failed to consult Sahrawis, neighbouring Algeria, Mauritania, the African Union (AU), or the EU. The immediate, predictable reaction of the Polisario Front, the Western Sahara independence movement that proclaimed the AU-backed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 1976, was to declare a resumption of hostilities with Morocco, ending a 29-year ceasefire. Like the Palestinians, Sahrawis trusted the international community’s promises. Like them, they have been betrayed. Few in the wider world appear to have even noticed. Not everyone in Washington is looking the other way. In an excoriating critique, John Bolton, Trump’s sacked national security adviser, said his old boss had thrown the Sahrawi people “under the bus”. Trump’s rash decision risked reigniting a frozen conflict in a combustible region on the edge of the Sahel that is vulnerable to Islamist jihadist influence. Fighting has not yet resumed but may do so imminently, he suggested.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...eals-will-not-bring-the-middle-east-any-peace

I asked for proof that your 3 authors are "serious and substantive". Still waiting. Tom Friedman of the NYT is himself a proponent of a two state solution. But even he writes about how helpful the abraham accords are in presenting a sunni-israeli front against iran. The accords open up these arab countries to israeli investment and capital. Linked-In in Israel almost crashed the first day of the accords. Momentum of the BDS movement is also now slowed, which is a good thing. The accords certainly do not help russia's attempts to make inroads in the area.

The accords solidify the fact that the palestinian-israeli issue no longer is preeminent. To be honest, arab countries had previously precipitously slowed their aid to the palestinians so the accords just solidify what was already a reality. Sunni nations are done with the palestinian issue. Iran is a big loser here as they have always leveraged the palestinian issue to try to gain support from the sunni countries. Dont dismiss the value of the gulf countries, they have much deeper pockets than iran and their alliance with israel and its resources/innovation/technology will allow their countries to blossom.
 

golf

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No surprise that China waited until their guy Joe Biden was in charge to do this. Strategically timed no doubt on the heels of the public ass kicking they gave Blinken & Sullivan last week in Alaska, their proxy North Korea mocking Biden, Putin cquestioning Biden's mental capacity, challenging him to a public debate & Biden being blown over on the stairs three times. The world knows Biden is compromised by China & America is weak now.

Correct. And actually there is serious reason to think that the affects of this agreement will be minimal.

 

justthefacts

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No surprise that China waited until their guy Joe Biden was in charge to do this. Strategically timed no doubt on the heels of the public ass kicking they gave Blinken & Sullivan last week in Alaska, their proxy North Korea mocking Biden, Putin cquestioning Biden's mental capacity, challenging him to a public debate & Biden being blown over on the stairs three times. The world knows Biden is compromised by China & America is weak now.

Correct. And actually there is serious reason to think that the affects of this agreement will be minimal.


golf: This China/Iran deal isn't meaningful at all
CRG: This Chin/Iran deal is a very big deal!
golf: Correct
 

Wally

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Fraid not. Of all Trump's policies that benefitted our country, middle east may be the one one that resonates the most over time. Even Tom Friedman agrees.


How specifically did his Iran policy benefit us?
 

Wally

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No surprise that China waited until their guy Joe Biden was in charge to do this. Strategically timed no doubt on the heels of the public ass kicking they gave Blinken & Sullivan last week in Alaska, their proxy North Korea mocking Biden, Putin cquestioning Biden's mental capacity, challenging him to a public debate & Biden being blown over on the stairs three times. The world knows Biden is compromised by China & America is weak now.

What would Trump have done Nostradamus?

Trump disavowal of using the military in the midfle east made him a paper tiger, which is why iran started enriching uranium again under Trumps watch.
 

stocker08

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Trump's Iran sanctions fail....IT'S BIDEN'S FAULT!!!!
 

Wally

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But but but but but but but but

trump
I didn't say but Trump. I asked what Trump would have done that is different than what Biden is doing...

Please list and elaborate on Trump's foreign policy victories and explain to me what exactly he achieved....
I'm waiting....
 

howeda7

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I didn't say but Trump. I asked what Trump would have done that is different than what Biden is doing...

Please list and elaborate on Trump's foreign policy victories and explain to me what exactly he achieved....
I'm waiting....
Trump's twitter victory over Little Rocket Man will be in the history books for centuries!
 

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trump-wall.gif



BmlBkEL.jpg
 

justthefacts

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Post 14 gives some details on that.

No it doesn't. Trump left the JCPOA even though everyone, including Israeli intelligence and Trump Nat Sec leaders, said Iran was keeping its promises. Nothing in your post explains why that was a good thing.
 

BarnBurner

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No it doesn't. Trump left the JCPOA even though everyone, including Israeli intelligence and Trump Nat Sec leaders, said Iran was keeping its promises. Nothing in your post explains why that was a good thing.
And you believe it!!!! Fool.
 

golf

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No it doesn't. Trump left the JCPOA even though everyone, including Israeli intelligence and Trump Nat Sec leaders, said Iran was keeping its promises. Nothing in your post explains why that was a good thing.

Israel is very happy we pulled out of the deal. Point is that the abraham accords are a huge thing. Serve to solidify a sunni-israeli front against iran besides very significant other benefits. We are even now in the process of selling f-35s to bahrain (which israel opposes by the way.). As people from these sunni countries start to see real benefits to their lives from cooperation with israel the possibility of middle east war goes down.

Trump isolated iran through sanctions and soleimani's killing was a further blow to iran's standing. American strength provided the space for the abraham accords to become a reality.
 
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