Line up to Gophers by 14 in a few of the Vegas books today

swingman

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Friend reminds me Gophs were favored vs Northwestern at TCF last year as well. Hope Vegas knows their stuff. Had Iowa line nailed.

ASA handicappers out of Madison has these notes:

The Gophers dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with a 23-19 loss @ Iowa. The Hawkeyes were favored by 3 and picked up the cover when Minnesota scored a TD but missed the XP late in the game. However, Iowa also missed an XP on their first TD so those two factors even out in the end. Last week was a tale of two halves for the Gophers. They only had the ball 4 times in the first half and kicked 2 FG’s, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs. In the 2nd half, they had over 200 yards of offense, scored 2 TD’s and were shut out on downs at the Iowa 25-yard line on another possession. They outgained Iowa by 141 yards, punted just once the entire game, yet still only scored 19 points. Defensively, Iowa rolled over them early scoring TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game. After that, the Gopher defense played very well holding the Hawkeye offense to 3 points on just 78 total yards forcing them to punt on 4 of their final 5 possessions. One we’ll keep a close eye on here is Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan who had another outstanding game (368 yards passing) but was crunched in the final minute of the game and will be in concussion protocol this week. It looks like the Wisconsin @ Minnesota game in the final week of the season will be for all the marbles in the Big 10 West. Even if Minnesota loses this game, that final game will still be the same winner take all situation.

Northwestern came into last week’s game having scored 100 points in their first 9 games of the season (11 PPG). Last week they put up nearly half that in one game topping a terrible UMass team 45-6. The win was just the 2nd of the season for Northwestern pushing their overall record to 2-8 both SU & ATS. They remain 0-7 in Big Ten play. While they did get the breakout game they needed on offense, let’s now put too much stock in that performance as UMass came in allowing 55 PPG which was the worst mark in college football. To put Northwestern’s 45-point effort into perspective, take out their win vs a terrible Akron team and the UMass defense has allowed 45 points or more in every game this season but ONE! Florida International scored “just” 44 on this UMass defense. So if you subtract the Akron game, the Wildcats score the 2nd fewest points this season on the Minutemen. On top of that, one of their TD’s was on an 85-yard return after a blocked FG attempt so the offense really only scored 38 points. The Northwestern offense put up a solid 410 total yards on UMass which is great, right? Until you look and see that UMass had allowed more than 500 yards of offense to every opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Akron (who ranks 129th in total offense) and now Northwestern. We’re not talking about great offenses that were torching the UMass defense as Charlotte, Liberty, and Coastal Carolina all topped 500 yards vs this defense. Anyway, that tells us that Northwestern’s offense performance wasn’t very impressive. Their QB performance continue to be shaky as Smith completed only 7 passes but they were able to run the ball 52 times for 334 yards. The Cats, still looking for their first Big 10 win, host Minnesota and then travel to Illinois to close out the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Wildcats were +3 @ Minnesota last season and pulled off a 24-14 upset win. This is the first time since 2005 that the Gophers have been a double digit favorite in a Big 10 road game. They’ve been a Big 10 road favorite of -10 or more just 9 times since 1980 (5-4 ATS). This is just the 2nd time this season that Northwestern has been an underdog of more than 10 points (1-1 ATS). The Cats were 10-3 ATS as a double digit dog entering this season.
 
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Gold Rush

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Actually seeing it up to 14.5 at mybookie.com. The money has been coming in hard on the Gophers all week and we still don't have the status of QB Morgan, which is probably worth anywhere from 7-14 points. Crazy!!
 

GoGophersUMN

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I wonder if that's because people have inside information that Morgan is good to go or just because the original line was bad.

On paper -7 doesn't seem like enough even without Morgan because of how the teams are playing so far but if you look at the past few years -7 with potentially starting an inexperienced QB seems like a lot. We should be favored but it's very hard to guess by how much.
 

fmlizard

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Minnesota hasn’t scored in the deep rough at Ryan Field in over 6 years. Gophers will win but take the points.
 
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