"Liberate Minnesota"

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
41,900
Reaction score
1,710
Points
113
SD had a ton of cases, but they were in [non-nursing home locations], instead of nursing homes.

Seemed obvious to me.
5 nursing home deaths reported today. Up to 44 deaths per million. It would only take 1-2 bad outbreaks to catch MN. It's dumb to claim this means SD is doing much better while they have twice as many cases. The cases in meat plants don't magically stay contained there.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
12,324
Reaction score
1,477
Points
113
5 nursing home deaths reported today. Up to 44 deaths per million. It would only take 1-2 bad outbreaks to catch MN. It's dumb to claim this means SD is doing much better while they have twice as many cases. The cases in meat plants don't magically stay contained there.
Well, if it is just an outbreak at a meat packing plant, that actually is easier to contain, on paper.

Minnesota had no such luck with most of its cases.
 

chri1673

Active member
Joined
Oct 5, 2009
Messages
194
Reaction score
31
Points
28
This is one of the dumbest posts on epidemiology I have ever seen. First, it is essential to determine the agent (SARS-Cov-2) under investigation. Second, determine if SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of Covid-19. Then, you need to assess the impact of the occurence of Covid-19 from those people EXPOSED to the disease. So, comparing the millions to millions is completely unfiltered to what you are trying to study. The unexposed person has nothing to do with the exposure/illness ratio. Nothing whatsoever. You don't investigate muskrats for a foodborne illness, because they are an animal around a picnic site. And, you don't investigate people in St. Louis county for foodborne illness when you know the only instances were at a picnic in Rice county that involved a single family.

So, for my example of the picnic, the food borne illness would encompass the number of people who ate the suspect food and became ill divided by the number of people who ate the specific suspect food.

Your illustration above includes people who have never been exposed or have not become ill from an exposure. That taints the picture. It is like including families in St. Louis county uninvolved with the picnic in the data.

Your illustration is completely effed up and tragically stupid. The study of epidemiology is a science which wants to know the occurrence of the disease in populations related to the presence or absence of factors within that group, I have seen so many people distort numbers on GH related to supposed epidemiology that have messed up data, even with high degrees of mathematical ability, to be worthless across the board. The data presented has been effectively USELESS information.

It would be like commenting on a football game by saying the other team gained a first down by stealing second base. It all sounds reasonable, until you examine the data and find out everybody not at the picnic who happen to be mammals in St. Louis county are going to be studied because they may have heard of the picnic, played football by stealing second base. Absolutely moronic.

Everything related to numbers on this thread have been equally moronic as my example in the above paragraph. This is why I cannot relate to this thread on a more consistent basis because it is making all of us dumber for participating. Go ahead, keep debating how stealing second base gets you a first down in a football game. It looks reasonable until you realize you are talking about football, only football, and the rules of baseball have nothing to do with football.

God Almighty, why do I bother.
Settle down bud. Was merely responding with some additional /million numbers to the guy who posted other /million numbers as his metric for comparison. Thank you for taking the time to type up these great analogies though.

So in your opinion will we ever be able to compare state-state or country-country? How can we establish a baseline for most effective lockdown/closing strategies going forward? What metrics would you use? What consideration if any should we have for the economy when dealing with a potential second wave or the next pandemic?
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
7,033
Reaction score
581
Points
113
5 nursing home deaths reported today. Up to 44 deaths per million. It would only take 1-2 bad outbreaks to catch MN. It's dumb to claim this means SD is doing much better while they have twice as many cases. The cases in meat plants don't magically stay contained there.
The majority of SD's deaths are from nursing homes, just like MN. That's not anything new.

MN has more meat packing plant cases than SD now.
 

Section2

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
43,517
Reaction score
1,116
Points
113
5 nursing home deaths reported today. Up to 44 deaths per million. It would only take 1-2 bad outbreaks to catch MN. It's dumb to claim this means SD is doing much better while they have twice as many cases. The cases in meat plants don't magically stay contained there.
Don't you feel a little silly going so far out of your way to argue about South Dakota's handling of COVID? don't you feel a little pathetic and hackish?
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
528
Points
113
Settle down bud. Was merely responding with some additional /million numbers to the guy who posted other /million numbers as his metric for comparison. Thank you for taking the time to type up these great analogies though.

So in your opinion will we ever be able to compare state-state or country-country? How can we establish a baseline for most effective lockdown/closing strategies going forward? What metrics would you use? What consideration if any should we have for the economy when dealing with a potential second wave or the next pandemic?
Not the way all of you are discussing it. So, no.

A baseline statistic that is already known is the current death rate, which is simply the number of deaths over the number of total known cases. Right now, that world total is around 6.7% of all cases. When this began, we were looking at around 3 to 5%. If you want a baseline, as to what we should do, I don't know what that baseline should look like to reopen and to close. I don't think that 6.7% loss of life is acceptable. I am going to say my baseline would be an acceptable death rate would be a loss of life equivalent to reaching the age 72, or specifically, the loss of or 1/12th of 1/72 of our population to this disease every month, or .0011 or about 115 deaths per 100,000 above normal.

I don't know what acceptable is for myself. I am not sure if I accept my own prescription above. And, I don't know what the impact on the economy would be at this rate of death. But, at some point, we have to continue to lead normal lives. Maybe we also think of throttling the economy by saying we open everything at 20 hours per week, see how it goes. Then to 32 hours. Then to 40. And, see how it rates against the metric above. I would keep in place masks for everyone and social distancing of 6 feet for everybody and institute fines for those who don't wear masks within businesses. I would amend the law to say if you don't wear a mask in a business, you can be refused service.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Messages
7,033
Reaction score
581
Points
113
Tornado warnings are issued based on real time data and observations. The government does not force you to take shelter, that's your choice. Many people choose not to take shelter, stand outside, and film the tornado with their cell phone. That's their choice. Very few, if any of these people die.

Was this tweet supposed to prove a point?
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
528
Points
113
Tornado warnings are issued based on real time data and observations. The government does not force you to take shelter, that's your choice. Many people choose not to take shelter, stand outside, and film the tornado with their cell phone. That's their choice. Very few, if any of these people die.

Was this tweet supposed to prove a point?
I once skidded across a parade field from a wall cloud that raced through Fort McCoy. I couldn't tell if I peed my shorts because it was raining too hard afterwards.
 

NotAFanOfBecky

Active member
Joined
Nov 27, 2016
Messages
966
Reaction score
97
Points
28
I'm curious if anyone thinks any politicians are fudging (too strong of a word here, but you get the idea) case and death numbers to serve political goals. Like for instance, if I am a governor and I want to justify opening things up, I sure want my case and death numbers low. If I am a president running for re-election, I sure want those numbers dropping. There's a lot of incentive to look at statistics and reporting guidelines in different ways, depending upon what your goals are.

Not pointing at anyone. Just an observation.
That's a great observation. I'd say you are most likely right.
 

Bad Gopher

A Loner, A Rebel
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,024
Reaction score
1,279
Points
113
Tornado warnings are issued based on real time data and observations. The government does not force you to take shelter, that's your choice. Many people choose not to take shelter, stand outside, and film the tornado with their cell phone. That's their choice. Very few, if any of these people die.

Was this tweet supposed to prove a point?
Ask the author. I'm just the messenger.
 

bga1

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
40,025
Reaction score
1,980
Points
113
Tornado warnings are issued based on real time data and observations. The government does not force you to take shelter, that's your choice. Many people choose not to take shelter, stand outside, and film the tornado with their cell phone. That's their choice. Very few, if any of these people die.

Was this tweet supposed to prove a point?
It did prove a point, but not the point that the Badster thought it did.

Imagine this: Minnesota orders all businesses closed in anticipation of tomorrow's rain storm. Concern for fallen trees, downed power lines, traffic accidents, children potentially getting wet and lightning strikes necessitates shelter in place for tomorrow. We believe we can flatten the curve on storm damage! We have very creative ideas so we might stay closed longer than just tomorrow to think about them!
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
16,119
Reaction score
574
Points
113
I'm feeling oppressed... by The Libs.

I think I'll go to a protest, and I'll carry a sign emblazoned with a slogan that was most famously used by Nazis at their death camps.

I'm doing this to, uhhhh... you know... show... how... oppressed I am. Or how oppressed I feel. Oppressed by the Libs, I'm feeling oppressed. By them. By the libs. Like the Nazis were oppressed. By the Libs.

Uhhhh... well, anyway, at least The Fellas get me.
Now that is a bitch-slap.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
16,119
Reaction score
574
Points
113
Wearing an "AMERICA LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT" shirt, while carrying a symbol of the Confederacy.

I've noticed that righties seem oblivious to irony.
Worse, a Confederacy that started a war based mainly on wishing to retain the ability to enslave other human beings, a Confederacy that got its ass kicked by a bunch of folks who cared far less about that war, and a Confederacy that got its ass kicked on its own land. The great symbol of the RW loony toons was a complete and utter shameful failure. That's what they look up to. Yee haw with a rebel yell.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
16,119
Reaction score
574
Points
113
Historically, I'm actually more Lefty than Righty, but definitely not a Socialist Sanders Lefty, and Pelosi makes me want to vomit. To a certain extent, recent stupid moves by the Democrats may have forcibly pushed me more toward the Center of the spectrum, I suppose. But I basically consider each issue separately, from first principles. So I may frustrate some posters who always want to think of other posters in terms of some sort of political box.

In any event, I completely endorse your last two paragraphs.
You are clearly thoughtful and base your answers on facts data. That's EXACTLY what "politics" SHOULD be. I don't care if someone is a Bernie-raging commie or a Dear Leader-raging fascist, if your argument is based on all facts and logic, I'm happy to hear it.
 
Top Bottom