Justin Amash expected to make a decision soon about a 3rd party presidential run

cjbfbp

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Anyone who has been paying attention to politics since the Mueller report is familiar with the name of Justin Amash. He was the GOP congressman from Michigan who was forced to leave the party after he announced his intention to vote for Trump's impeachment (and, as you'll recall, that was before the Ukraine incident).

Anyway, he is seriously considering a 3rd party run (as a Libertarian, of course) and should announce a decision soon. Hard to figure at this point who he will hurt. He is unlikely to get many votes at all from real Trumpsters due to his "treachery." Although he gained a lot of respect from many Democrats because of his principled and independent stance on the impeachment issue, his very libertarian ideals would be a non-starter for most Democratic voters and almost no real Democratic voters will vote 3rd party while Trump is on the ballot.
 
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MplsGopher

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Trumpism is a cult. Members would never vote for anyone else, no matter what. So that wouldn't make sense anyway.

This could however spell very good news for sucking away some non-Trumpism republican/libertarian/independent voters who might have otherwise voted for Trump.

Very good news!
 

cjbfbp

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Trumpism is a cult. Members would never vote for anyone else, no matter what. So that wouldn't make sense anyway.

This could however spell very good news for sucking away some non-Trumpism republican/libertarian/independent voters who might have otherwise voted for Trump.

Very good news!
Well, I don't know. I could see some independents who might vote for a Democrat against Trump who may vote for Amash instead. Former Republican Tom Nichols has been one of the most vocal anti-Trumpers around. Some time ago, he was telling anti-Trump Republicans that, under the circumstances, he will vote for the Democratic candidate no matter how ridiculous his/her stated policy positions may be because nothing is more important than getting rid of Trump. He also urged them not to vote for a 3rd party because that was a default vote for Trump. If one is a conservative, libertarian type of anti-Trump Republican, I could see Amash being an attractive choice.
 

MplsGopher

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If one is a conservative, libertarian type of anti-Trump Republican, I could see Amash being an attractive choice.
Absolutely. I just have a very, very difficult time believing such a person would have cast a vote for Biden.

If not, then it doesn't hurt Biden. But we also don't know if they would've cast a vote for Trump.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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It would hurt Trump.
What Trump voters are going to abandon ship for Justin Amash? That's preposterous. I don't see Amash getting any voters for the left, or the right. Maybe...a handful of hard core, open borders Libertarians who don't mind Amash's financial ties to China? I wonder if that's who funding his campaign?
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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Well, I don't know. I could see some independents who might vote for a Democrat against Trump who may vote for Amash instead. Former Republican Tom Nichols has been one of the most vocal anti-Trumpers around. Some time ago, he was telling anti-Trump Republicans that, under the circumstances, he will vote for the Democratic candidate no matter how ridiculous his/her stated policy positions may be because nothing is more important than getting rid of Trump. He also urged them not to vote for a 3rd party because that was a default vote for Trump. If one is a conservative, libertarian type of anti-Trump Republican, I could see Amash being an attractive choice.
The one thing the GOP never Trumpers and the Dems have in common is their loyalty to the all mighty dollar above all else. They desperately want Trump out so they can get back to using their positions to cut crony deals with China, Ukraine, et al.
 

TruthSeeker

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What Trump voters are going to abandon ship for Justin Amash? That's preposterous. I don't see Amash getting any voters for the left, or the right. Maybe...a handful of hard core, open borders Libertarians who don't mind Amash's financial ties to China? I wonder if that's who funding his campaign?
You'll get a few left leaning voters too. But the majority will be right leaning voters. For every percentage point Amash pulls down, Trump would probably lose .3-.5%. on net to Biden. Trump would be phucked pretty quickly if Amash got any kind of support.

Trump would almost definitely lose Michigan under any scenario.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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You'll get a few left leaning voters too. But the majority will be right leaning voters. For every percentage point Amash pulls down, Trump would probably lose .3-.5%. Trump would he phucked pretty quickly.

Trump would almost definitely lose Michigan under any scenario.
Justin Amash is a complete non-threat.
 

Panthadad2

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Libertarian types get a handful of voters every election. In 2016, Gary Johnson got more votes than any 3rd party candidate received since Ross Perot. Gary Johnson was well-known and I'm sure plenty of never-Trumper types who would have voted for the likes of Jeb Bush voted for Johnson instead. I've never heard of Amash until now.
 

TruthSeeker

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Libertarian types get a handful of voters every election. In 2016, Gary Johnson got more votes than any 3rd party candidate received since Ross Perot. Gary Johnson was well-known and I'm sure plenty of never-Trumper types who would have voted for the likes of Jeb Bush voted for Johnson instead. I've never heard of Amash until now.
He was part of the Freedom Caucus, but they kicked him out when Trump took power. He would not lick Trump's boots like the rest of the Freedom Caucus.
 

cjbfbp

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I've never heard of Amash until now.
Well, then that reveals that you haven't been paying attention to politics very closely. I'll keep that in mind when judging your future posts.
 

Panthadad2

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Well, then that reveals that you haven't been paying attention to politics very closely. I'll keep that in mind when judging your future posts.
I don't "play the sport" of politics unlike ideologues like you. I do care about issues. I couldn't give two rats asses about some legislator from another state that has no real influence.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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He was part of the Freedom Caucus, but they kicked him out when Trump took power. He would not lick Trump's boots like the rest of the Freedom Caucus.
He turned anti-Trump when Trump imposed tariffs on China, because he's heavily invested there.
 

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Even if he peels away 1-2 percent of Republicans and conservative independents, it will likely cause the defeat of Donald J. Trump.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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Well, then that reveals that you haven't been paying attention to politics very closely. I'll keep that in mind when judging your future posts.
Why would a normal person have ever heard of Justin Amash?
 

cjbfbp

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I don't "play the sport" of politics unlike ideologues like you. I do care about issues. I couldn't give two rats asses about some legislator from another state that has no real influence.
I am not an ideologue and my political identity quiz results revealed here a week or two ago confirmed that. I am a partisan but that is not the same thing as an ideologue. Your indifference does mean something (you're not paying as close attention to events you're jumping to discuss as some others). Everyone else on this thread knew the name of Justin Amash and for good reason.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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Anyone who has been paying attention to politics since the Mueller report is familiar with the name of Justin Amash. He was the GOP congressman from Michigan who was forced to leave the party after he announced his intention to vote for Trump's impeachment (and, as you'll recall, that was before the Ukraine incident).

Anyway, he is seriously considering a 3rd party run (as a Libertarian, of course) and should announce a decision soon. Hard to figure at this point who he will hurt. He is unlikely to get many votes at all from real Trumpsters due to his "treachery." Although he gained a lot of respect from many Democrats because of his principled and independent stance on the impeachment issue, his very libertarian ideals would be a non-starter for most Democratic voters and almost no real Democratic voters will vote 3rd party while Trump is on the ballot.
Why not tell the truth? Justin Amash is the co-owner of a Chinese company that makes tools to sell in the United States. He supported Trump until Trump enacted the tariffs on China and only then did his opposition to Trump surface. The idea that he opposes Trump for some principled reason is nonsense.

From 2010:

"Justin co-owns a factory in China that manufactures the tools he sells in America,” “Justin is not a fighter for American jobs, he’s the creator of jobs in China.”

Justin Amash schedules event to counter fellow Congressional candidate Patrick Miles' ads accusing him of owning Chinese factory
 

Panthadad2

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I am not an ideologue and my political identity quiz results revealed here a week or two ago confirmed that. I am a partisan but that is not the same thing as an ideologue. Your indifference does mean something (you're not paying as close attention to events you're jumping to discuss as some others). Everyone else on this thread knew the name of Justin Amash and for good reason.
OK. It sounds like you know everything there is to know about politics.

Do you think Amash could get 4.5 million votes like Gary Johnson did (an unprecedented number for the Libertarian Party)? That might be an important factor.

The other question would be how many former Bernie votes and such peel off to the Green Party. They only had 1.5 million in the last election.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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OK. It sounds like you know everything there is to know about politics.

Do you think Amash could get 4.5 million votes like Gary Johnson did (an unprecedented number for the Libertarian Party)? That might be an important factor.

The other question would be how many former Bernie votes and such peel off to the Green Party. They only had 1.5 million in the last election.
I don't think Amash could even get the nomination of the Libertarian party. He's dreaming.
 

TruthSeeker

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CRG is hard at work in this thread. He's either scared or trolling. He must be really worried.
 

howeda7

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Justin Amash might get enough votes in Michigan to tip it. But from which side? In all likelihood though, MI is going blue. Outside of MI, he will be a non-entity. Evan McMullen 2.0.
 

justthefacts

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Amash is the exact kind of politician CRG would hate:
  • Wants lower taxes
  • Wants to protect personal privacy
  • Voted against FISA renewal
  • Wants to get out of and avoid foreign wars

There are, of course, two sides to the China story:



 

cjbfbp

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OK. It sounds like you know everything there is to know about politics.

Do you think Amash could get 4.5 million votes like Gary Johnson did (an unprecedented number for the Libertarian Party)? That might be an important factor.

The other question would be how many former Bernie votes and such peel off to the Green Party. They only had 1.5 million in the last election.
No, I do not but this politician is a unique and notable individual in this day and age.

I have no idea how many votes Amash could get but I would guess fewer than Gary Johnson because negative partisanship (who do you hate more?) should drive this election so fewer people will be willing to cast protest votes. I'm guessing this will be similar to the 2004 re-election of GWB where 3rd party votes were a much lower percentage of the total than they were in 2000.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

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Just happened to jump out of the Trump boat when the China tariffs were announced. Coincidence. ;)

Amash's 2017 Financial disclosures show the vast majority of his income comes from his co-ownership stake (along with his brother Jeff) in Michigan Industrial Tools, the one he references in your article. That's his family business. What he doesn't mention are MIT's Chinese companies Tekton & Dynamic Source International. Those companies have taken down their websites and/or made them member access only since this scandal broke. He appears to have shifted his ownership around as articles from 2010 show he was then co-owner of the Chinese companies as well. Any way you slice it Amash has a financial interest in killing the tariffs, only revolted against Trump once his financial position was threatened, and all the shell companies, Chinese subsidiaries and corporate restructuring doesn't make it look much better.
 
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