Here's Why Gophers Still (almost) Control Playoff Destiny

bfast

Member
It's this simple:

Win out and you have three MONSTER wins against PSU, WISC and Ohio State (Two top 5 wins and an almost top 10 win). The only wrench that can be thrown in is if Wisconsin or OSU slip up on the way and lose some of their clout (2 wins over Penn State get you in? Probably not).

Name me a better 1 loss resume than what the Gophers would have?

MN will have the best wins + the best loss of all one loss teams.

Georgia?
Bama?
Oregon?

It's VITAL to note that I think a bigger loss to Iowa would have killed playoff chances for good. I think the committee really values close losses in tough games - so I think playing Iowa close on the road is worth MORE than a win against an average B1G team.

I'd love to be proven wrong here! Find me that better 1-loss record!

If Gophers run the table and things go as projected it would be:

LSU
Clemson
Baylor
Minnesota

Fan buzz plays a critical role in the committee's perception and selection. It is VERY important that you keep making noise about the Gophers' cred if they do indeed win out. These are just a bunch of athletic director normies that can be swayed.
 
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bfast

Member
Baylor is out. This loss is GOLDEN for the Gophers

Projected field is:

LSU
Clemson
Georgia
Minnesota

Any other 1 loss teams have a claim over Minnesota?

Ohio State (would have lost h2h to Minnesota)
Oregon
Utah
Alabama

Let's hear it!
 
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stocker08

Active member
The Gophers would certainly have a case if they win out. A Wisconsin and Ohio State victory would look awfully nice to pair with the Penn State win. I don't think they'll knock us too much for losing to Iowa in Kinnick.

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bfast

Member
The Gophers would certainly have a case if they win out. A Wisconsin and Ohio State victory would look awfully nice to pair with the Penn State win. I don't think they'll knock us too much for losing to Iowa in Kinnick.

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I think we'll finally see the benefit of a "good loss".

The gophers would have been sunk if they would have been blown out.
 

Face The Facts

Fleck Superfan
I'd expect something like this, this week.

1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Alabama but will fall
6./7. - Utah / Oregon
8. Oklahoma
9./10. MN / PSU
11. Florida
12. Wisconsin

If Minnesota beats, NW, WI, and PSU we would add two more really good wins. Our one loss isn't horrible.
We would want Georgia to lose to LSU in that case to get a second loss otherwise Georgia would stay ahead of us and assume the #3 over us.
Then we'd be in conversation with the Utah / Oregon winner. I'd think we'd have the better story to tell.

If GA beat LSU and we beat OSU.
1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. LSU.
4. Minnesota / Oregon / Utah / OSU

If GA lost to LSU and we beat OSU.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Minnesota
4. OSU / Oregon / Utah

Hard to say how much they drop us this week.
Baylor will fall from 13 and we could be hanging out with them in the 12-15 range.
If that happens we're toast no matter what happens, unless we beat all remaining teams by 40 points each.
 

Yah-E

Bulieve
I whole heartedly believe the majority of CFP committee members careless about us. Many “experts” have said for the committee to even consider us as the fourth spot, we’d have to win out as an undefeated team, PERIOD! Now with one loss, they’d take OU, UGA, maybe even Utah or Oregon before us because the committee loves PAC-12 for whatever reason.

Do we have a or should we have a slim chance IF we beat WIS AND OSU, yes! But our CFP chances have diminished to 0.0000000009%. If we get to the B1G Championship game and beat OSU/PSU by like 65 points, then our CFP chances may increase to 0.05% getting that 4th spot.

Hey don’t get me wrong, I’d love the fact that we can even talk about our Gophers to maybe get into the CFP in mid November, but our resume would’ve looked so much better if we had beaten Iowa yesterday and win out as an undefeated team.

Hearing all the “experts” on TV (FOX and ESPN) yesterday, they’re already giving PSU a lot of love for their game against OSU coming up next week, as if what we did last week to them was a fluke. No one even talk about what a great loss we had with Iowa and how we can still be a great candidate as a man one-loss team for CFP.

We need to face it, Minnesota Gophers football stocks were hot! But we now just Bitecoins (a thing of the past)! No one cares anymore but us.
 
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gopherjay

Active member
We are not going to the payoffs and that discussion needs to stop. We will have a huge challenge in two weeks against Wisconsin for the west title. That game is not a lock to win. It is fun to fantasize about the CFP but the reality is we have put ourselves in a position to end up ranked nothing and in a second tier bowl. Our coach and team choked yesterday big time. Its been a great year and we control how great it ends.
 

Face The Facts

Fleck Superfan
We are not going to the payoffs and that discussion needs to stop. We will have a huge challenge in two weeks against Wisconsin for the west title. That game is not a lock to win. It is fun to fantasize about the CFP but the reality is we have put ourselves in a position to end up ranked nothing and in a second tier bowl. Our coach and team choked yesterday big time. Its been a great year and we control how great it ends.
If only there were an online forum where users could discuss what they would like to discuss related to Gopher football.
 

Plato

Member
If tOSU blows out PSU as I expect they will the MN win over PSU diminishes in value.
MN did not fare will against IA's ground game in the first half. WI's ground game is better than IA's.
But IA and NE llt up WI by passing and made both games close.
So Morgon must be back from what is clearly a concussion and the MN OL must protect him from whatever devious scheme WI throws at MN to sack Morgan.
If WI beats MN and loses to tOSU the Rose Bowl may choose WI because of their and history of packing the stands at the Rose Bowl.
 

Livingat45north

Well-known member
Seems sort of strange to say, but I'd actually rather go to the Rose Bowl over CFP. Getting back to the Rose Bowl has been my dream for a long time. Going there and beating a Utah or Oregon would be great. To do that, OSU needs to win out (pretty likely) and we need to beat WisconSIN (and NW), both of which we can do.
 

MirandaB

Member
Seems sort of strange to say, but I'd actually rather go to the Rose Bowl over CFP. Getting back to the Rose Bowl has been my dream for a long time. Going there and beating a Utah or Oregon would be great. To do that, OSU needs to win out (pretty likely) and we need to beat WisconSIN (and NW), both of which we can do.
Totally agree.


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Hotdish

Member
The CFP ultimately comes down to $$$. The committee needed any excuse to exclude us from the final four, and with that loss yesterday, we gave them one. Even if we win out.
 

Veritas

Active member
Baylor is out. This loss is GOLDEN for the Gophers

Projected field is:

LSU
Clemson
Georgia
Minnesota

Any other 1 loss teams have a claim over Minnesota?

Ohio State (would have lost h2h to Minnesota)
Oregon
Utah
Alabama

Let's hear it!
What is this talk of beating Northwestern, Wisconsin and Ohio State? Beside the fact that we play only Northwestern this week, having watched yesterday's game, how likely is it that we will win all three games? Really? Let me take a stab at it: 90% x 40% x 20% = 7%. Try to stay grounded until at least after we beat NU and Wisconsin.
 

stocker08

Active member
What is this talk of beating Northwestern, Wisconsin and Ohio State? Beside the fact that we play only Northwestern this week, having watched yesterday's game, how likely is it that we will win all three games? Really? Let me take a stab at it: 90% x 40% x 20% = 7%. Try to stay grounded until at least after we beat NU and Wisconsin.
Gotta agree with you for the most part. But 40% against Wisconsin? Nonsense. That's at least a 50/50 game. And since it's at home.....Gophers definitely should have the edge.
 

mnsportsgeek

Well-known member
Agreed that the CFP is still very much in play. We'd be on the bubble though and it would be a nerve wracking day.

Let's assume LSU and Clemson are locks. We'll give the PAC 12 champ the 3rd spot at this rate.

I think it would ultimately come down to Big 12 champ or Minnesota, and I'd think the committee would choose us in that situation.

The only thing that would kill us would be Georgia winning the SEC. That would lock 2 SEC teams in the playoffs IMO.
 
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I don't know what any of you guys are talking about. With Baylor's loss, a 12-1 Gopher team that beats OSU in Indy would be a 100% lock for the CFP. They'd likely have more top 5 wins than the rest of the country combined.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
These are my general thoughts:

- First eight teams we played weren't great. We went 8-0

- Penn State is not as good as we thought. They're good, don't get me wrong. But they're good like Indiana and Michigan are good, in the East. They're not good like Ohio State is good.

- Then in the West, you have Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, all at just about the same level. Wisconsin beat Iowa by 2 because they were at home, Iowa beat Minnesota by 4 because they were at home.

- Guessing we'll beat NW, although it may not be as big a win as we think it "should be", as NW just got some confidence with a big win over UMass, Minnesota might experience a physical hangover after a tough game, Morgan might be out, etc. Winning by less than two TDs doesn't sound unreasonable, to me.

- Finally, bringing us to the Axe game, which will be for the West. Hopefully, Gophers will win because they're about equal with Wisconsin and they're at home. But Wisconsin could also win a close game. It will be close either way.


- If we lose the Axe, we'll be in the Outback or something along those lines. If we win, we'll be in the Big Ten champ game.

- We will be outclassed by Ohio State in Indy, as would Iowa, as were Indiana and Wisconsin, as will be Penn State and Michigan. They're on a higher level than every other Big Ten team. And with that, ending our regular season at 11-2, it will be interesting if the Big Ten and Rose decide to take us over Penn State.
 

mjfelton15

Active member
These are my general thoughts:

- First eight teams we played weren't great. We went 8-0

- Penn State is not as good as we thought. They're good, don't get me wrong. But they're good like Indiana and Michigan are good, in the East. They're not good like Ohio State is good.

- Then in the West, you have Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, all at just about the same level. Wisconsin beat Iowa by 2 because they were at home, Iowa beat Minnesota by 4 because they were at home.

- Guessing we'll beat NW, although it may not be as big a win as we think it "should be", as NW just got some confidence with a big win over UMass, Minnesota might experience a physical hangover after a tough game, Morgan might be out, etc. Winning by less than two TDs doesn't sound unreasonable, to me.

- Finally, bringing us to the Axe game, which will be for the West. Hopefully, Gophers will win because they're about equal with Wisconsin and they're at home. But Wisconsin could also win a close game. It will be close either way.


- If we lose the Axe, we'll be in the Outback or something along those lines. If we win, we'll be in the Big Ten champ game.

- We will be outclassed by Ohio State in Indy, as would Iowa, as were Indiana and Wisconsin, as will be Penn State and Michigan. They're on a higher level than every other Big Ten team. And with that, ending our regular season at 11-2, it will be interesting if the Big Ten and Rose decide to take us over Penn State.
So if we go 11-2, with our losses being to Iowa and Ohio State in the Championship, and Penn State loses to us and OSU in the regular season. You think they take Penn State to the Rose Bowl over us when we have matching records, we were big ten runner-ups, and have the head-to-head win against PSU?


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MplsGopher

Well-known member
So if we go 11-2, with our losses being to Iowa and Ohio State in the Championship, and Penn State loses to us and OSU in the regular season. You think they take Penn State to the Rose Bowl over us when we have matching records, we were big ten runner-ups, and have the head-to-head win against PSU?


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I don't think that.

What you lay it on the table like that, plainly, it seems like we should be the easy pick.

Should be.
 

gopher8190

New member
I don't know what any of you guys are talking about. With Baylor's loss, a 12-1 Gopher team that beats OSU in Indy would be a 100% lock for the CFP. They'd likely have more top 5 wins than the rest of the country combined.
This. Most people are answering a question different than the original question.
 

bfast

Member
Agreed that the CFP is still very much in play. We'd be on the bubble though and it would be a nerve wracking day.

Let's assume LSU and Clemson are locks. We'll give the PAC 12 champ the 3rd spot at this rate.

I think it would ultimately come down to Big 12 champ or Minnesota, and I'd think the committee would choose us in that situation.

The only thing that would kill us would be Georgia winning the SEC. That would lock 2 SEC teams in the playoffs IMO.
Yeah I think a Georgia win over LSU in the playoff may make this scenario pretty dicey, but I still think the Gophers will have a better resume than any Pac12 or Big 12 squad.

Would the committee would take a 2-loss Georgia with a close loss over LSU? Surely their loss against South Carolina will sink them?

Here are the teams you would be fighting with for two spots:

Georgia
Oregon
Oklahoma

Yeah... Gophers are in unless Wisconsin or Penn State or Ohio State shyte the bed.
 
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MplsGopher

Well-known member
Still makes me chuckle a bit how many here are talking, off hand, about scenarios in which it is assumed that we beat Ohio St in Indy.

You know we just lost to Iowa, who lost to Wisconsin, who got blasted by Ohio St.
 

mnsportsgeek

Well-known member
Still makes me chuckle a bit how many here are talking, off hand, about scenarios in which it is assumed that we beat Ohio St in Indy.

You know we just lost to Iowa, who lost to Wisconsin, who got blasted by Ohio St.
Why not? We may never get to do it again.
 
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