Great Depression Worries

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
13,548
Reaction score
1,801
Points
113
So long bottom, nice to know ya.

Kudos to those who got in sub-20.

Do we think there’s much chance any kind of likely bad news is gonna halt this momentum? I think most people who were looking to sell, did so this morning or did so already. Just people looking to get in now.

I can’t see catastrophe at this point, unless the virus mutates wildly. There will be deaths. Many more deaths, but nothing that isn’t expected at this point. We’ll get out eventually. Long trudge, but clearly we all believe the light is down there past a couple bends in the tunnel.
 

Section2

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
44,383
Reaction score
1,531
Points
113
So long bottom, nice to know ya.

Kudos to those who got in sub-20.

Do we think there’s much chance any kind of likely bad news is gonna halt this momentum? I think most people who were looking to sell, did so this morning or did so already. Just people looking to get in now.

I can’t see catastrophe at this point, unless the virus mutates wildly. There will be deaths. Many more deaths, but nothing that isn’t expected at this point. We’ll get out eventually. Long trudge, but clearly we all believe the light is down there past a couple bends in the tunnel.
I dearly hope you are right, but the economic effects are long term and could still be severe. And we're out of most of our ammo.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
13,548
Reaction score
1,801
Points
113
I just feel like there’s nothing major that’s unexpected that’s left. We all know the hill we have to climb, and we’re climbing it.

Let’s say the economy has a big gash in it, that will take 5-10 years to heal.

Ok, but why would that make anyone who hasn’t sold yet, at this point, suddenly say “OK now I’m selling!” ?

I guess I can always be wrong. The market doesn’t have to be rational, at any time.
 

bga1

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
40,434
Reaction score
2,194
Points
113
SARS-CoV-2 directly attacks alveoli of the lungs. Once destroyed, they cannot return to normal function.
Right, but doesn't flu in it's fatal stages allow the same if sepsis sets in?
 

Bad Gopher

A Loner, A Rebel
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,696
Reaction score
1,787
Points
113
I just feel like there’s nothing major that’s unexpected that’s left. We all know the hill we have to climb, and we’re climbing it.

Let’s say the economy has a big gash in it, that will take 5-10 years to heal.

Ok, but why would that make anyone who hasn’t sold yet, at this point, suddenly say “OK now I’m selling!” ?

I guess I can always be wrong. The market doesn’t have to be rational, at any time.
My big concern economically is that situations like this always favor the very wealthy, who have the means to survive and even thrive. They'll eat the carcasses of all the small business and individuals that fail--i.e. buy property that gets forfeited, etc. That's never a good thing for a healthy economy. Avoiding that kind of permanent damage and wealth redistribution to the wealthy is why the government needs to act the way they have been.
 

OldBob53

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 15, 2019
Messages
1,218
Reaction score
176
Points
63
So far this new virus has been worse than my worst expectations. I hope it's now peaked but reserve judgement til we see a steady turnaround in the numbers.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
530
Points
113
Very good post. But I think you are introducing facts that are not known. You are focusing on the bad cases, and we have no way of knowing what percent of total cases those are. Is it not true or potentially true, that many/most/almost all of the under 60 patients with no other comorbidities do not get any sicker than the normal flu with no long term health effects? That's important to know in how we respond. And it would absolutely change the best course of action and the balance of economic and health effects.
False. Those between 40 and 60 are hospitalized at about half the rate of those over 60. But, that is still about 20 times higher than influenza. That would overwhelm the hospitals we have just in that age category.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
530
Points
113
Are you seeing/hearing these stories of obvious C-19 deaths not being counted if they were not tested? And if true, how does that impact things?
That is a question I cannot answer. I can only account for people who have been tested. I don't know what coroners are going to report out. I doubt they will be testing the deceased as we don't have enough testing for the living. I would think the answer is then no, we will not be counting the undiagnosed. And, I am not sure if the DNA fragments will remain intact long enough to be at detectable levels anyway. Somebody with a higher level of knowledge will have to answer that question for you.
 

Deleted_User

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 28, 2011
Messages
7,831
Reaction score
530
Points
113
So long bottom, nice to know ya.

Kudos to those who got in sub-20.

Do we think there’s much chance any kind of likely bad news is gonna halt this momentum? I think most people who were looking to sell, did so this morning or did so already. Just people looking to get in now.

I can’t see catastrophe at this point, unless the virus mutates wildly. There will be deaths. Many more deaths, but nothing that isn’t expected at this point. We’ll get out eventually. Long trudge, but clearly we all believe the light is down there past a couple bends in the tunnel.
Most mutations will cause it to be of lesser lethality. It just works out that way.
Right, but doesn't flu in it's fatal stages allow the same if sepsis sets in?
Sepsis is sepsis is sepsis.
 

Costa Rican Gopher

Mind of a Scientist
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
21,994
Reaction score
1,023
Points
113
My big concern economically is that situations like this always favor the very wealthy, who have the means to survive and even thrive. They'll eat the carcasses of all the small business and individuals that fail--i.e. buy property that gets forfeited, etc. That's never a good thing for a healthy economy. Avoiding that kind of permanent damage and wealth redistribution to the wealthy is why the government needs to act the way they have been.
We need to make sure the Chinese don't come in and buy up our industries, businesses and real estate after they caused this mess.
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
13,548
Reaction score
1,801
Points
113
Racial discrimination in transactions is illegal.

This is America, not Russia.
 

bottlebass

Main Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2013
Messages
16,190
Reaction score
588
Points
113
there are infinite possibilities, infinite courses of action we could take, infinite outcomes. One course of action we can take is lockdowns. There is only one thing we know for sure (can definitively say), they will flatten the curve. Fewer people will get the virus in the next few weeks than would otherwise get the virus without the lockdown. That's it. Can you say for sure fewer people will die in total? No, you cannot. It might be true, it might not. Get it yet? probably not. too thick.
Our governor proved your wrong yesterday. LOL. You should just stop posting about this topic, you don't know anything about diseases, health, health care etc. Stick to private roads.
 

Bad Gopher

A Loner, A Rebel
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
17,696
Reaction score
1,787
Points
113
The state of Ohio has stopped reporting unemployment claims at Trump's request.
 

TruthSeeker

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Messages
3,872
Reaction score
443
Points
83
They're not providing daily updates. It'll still come out every week. That's still bad. We shouldn't be trying to hide information. We need the truth.
 

JimmyJamesMD

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
7,548
Reaction score
689
Points
113
I dearly hope you are right, but the economic effects are long term and could still be severe. And we're out of most of our ammo.
Running out of ammo? You do realize the Federal Reserve is one of those old school Nintendo games were you never ran out of ammo ;)
 

bga1

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 20, 2008
Messages
40,434
Reaction score
2,194
Points
113
Our governor proved your wrong yesterday. LOL. You should just stop posting about this topic, you don't know anything about diseases, health, health care etc. Stick to private roads.
The sad part is that you are actually in the industry yet appear to understand less than S2. It's a lack of common sense that dogs you.
 

bottlebass

Main Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2013
Messages
16,190
Reaction score
588
Points
113
The sad part is that you are actually in the industry yet appear to understand less than S2. It's a lack of common sense that dogs you.
I love your posts beeg, they make me laugh.
 

TruthSeeker

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Messages
3,872
Reaction score
443
Points
83
The above thread is almost 100% ignorant. If you do not understand economics and the transmission of disease at least shut up and not go around sowing panic and silly thoughts. For example, a recession requires, by definition, two quarters (six months) of negative economic growth. We may, or may not, have had one month of negative economic growth. We are NOT in a recession. Secondly, money has disappeared. Money is a function of wealth. As the stock market declines wealth is being destroyed. Will that value, that wealth, return? Maybe, probably, who knows? No one.
This post is aging well.
 

Veritas

Banned
Joined
Nov 5, 2019
Messages
2,064
Reaction score
573
Points
113
This post is aging well.
It is. We will have a recession when we have an actual recession. Will we, in fact, have two quarters in a row of negative growth? Maybe, maybe not. But the rate at which the stock markets have bounced back is encouraging. Sorry I have not been able to join the panic herd yet.
 

TruthSeeker

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Messages
3,872
Reaction score
443
Points
83
It is. We will have a recession when we have an actual recession. Will we, in fact, have two quarters in a row of negative growth? Maybe, maybe not. But the rate at which the stock markets have bounced back is encouraging. Sorry I have not been able to join the panic herd yet.
That's not the definition. Also, if you think we grew in Q1 or will im Q2, then you're really whacked.

You must have learned economics at Arthur Anderson.
 

Section2

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
44,383
Reaction score
1,531
Points
113
I'm more and more becoming convinced that we are on the wrong path with the lockdowns. We would need to continue them for over a year in order to eradicate this virus? We can't do that. If it's as contagious as we fear, we will almost all be exposed at some point, whenever we get back to normal. I'm all for a temporary lockdown to give a cushion to health care and to ramp up production of supplies and treatments. But we cannot go more than a few more weeks with this status quo. There will be massive social unrest and massive economic dislocation, and it might all be in vain.
1-2 more weeks, keep the vulnerable isolated, everyone else needs to get back to work and let this run it's course.
I just gotta say, called this on March 20. The entire country is rioting. And we haven't even got to the effects of the massive economic dislocation. Are the lockdown fans still feeling like they made the right choice?
 

TruthSeeker

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 8, 2014
Messages
3,872
Reaction score
443
Points
83
I just gotta say, called this on March 20. The entire country is rioting. And we haven't even got to the effects of the massive economic dislocation. Are the lockdown fans still feeling like they made the right choice?
Very few saw this clearly. 0723 showed once again he is one of the very few with brains on the OTB.

You also recognized the issue.

Falsus still thinks we're not in a recession.
 
Top Bottom