Gophers' "Road to 19 Wins"

obobo55

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6 road games:

Dec. 9: @ #41 Iowa
Jan. 19: @ #63 Rutgers
Jan. 30: @ #35 Illinois
Feb. 8: @ #43 Penn State
March 1: @ #45 Wisconsin
March 4: @ #34 Indiana

Now need to win all of the home games and go 3-3 over these... Tough to believe.
 

SelectionSunday

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Updated after Gophers' 82-57 win over Central Michigan. Gophers now 2-0 vs. "must win" opponents.

Gophers currently are ranked #142 in the "no longer used" RPI.
 

BleedGopher

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After tonight's dominating win over North Dakota, the Gophers are 3-0 in Hodger's "Must Win (go 6-0) -- CURRENTLY 2-0" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Rouser

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So with Depaul smoking every opponent (including thrashing Iowa at Iowa), are they really a team we should be favored against? I would argue that beating them Friday is a 50/50 win, meaning a good win.

I also realize Hodger's list is the best guess at the opponents to start the season and doesn't make sense to move things around, just pointing out that Depaul would be a good win and help this team a lot.
 

BleedGopher

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With the loss to DePaul, Gophers are 0-1 in Hodger's "Likely Favored (go 5-1)" category:

Go Gophers!!
 

SelectionSunday

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With rout of Clemson, Gophers are 1-1 in the "Likely Favored" category.
 

bfast

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The way I see it now is that they *must* go 12-6, 11-7 in conference and sneak in with 17 or 18 regular season wins. A win or two in the conference tournament to cement it.

I'd imagine there would be some nice wins sprinkled in a 11+ win conference schedule. Maybe would get the benefit of the doubt for keeping tough road/neutral games close right off the bat in non-conference.
 

cjbfbp

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The way I see it now is that they *must* go 12-6, 11-7 in conference and sneak in with 17 or 18 regular season wins. A win or two in the conference tournament to cement it.

I'd imagine there would be some nice wins sprinkled in a 11+ win conference schedule. Maybe would get the benefit of the doubt for keeping tough road/neutral games close right off the bat in non-conference.
Remember, we play 20 regular season conference games now. The best they can do in non-conference is 6-4. Going 12-8 in conference means they would be 18-12 going into the Big Ten conference tournament. A win and a loss in that tournament would give them a 19-13 record which might be good enough to be selected given their strength of record. But, I have a hard time seeing how this team can finish 12-8 in the conference during the regular season. That would take improvement from Alihan, improvement from Gabe, and better bench play as the season goes on.

I know enough about Gabe to believe that he can play better for the rest of the season (he was good against Clemson). I don't know enough about Alihan to have strong doubts that that he can play better for the rest of the season. One thing I do have plenty of evidence to make a judgement about after six years: we are unlikely to see great bench play from a Pitino team. This year's edition seems to be following suit.
 

Livingat45north

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Remember, we play 20 regular season conference games now. The best they can do in non-conference is 6-4. Going 12-8 in conference means they would be 18-12 going into the Big Ten conference tournament. A win and a loss in that tournament would give them a 19-13 record which might be good enough to be selected given their strength of record. But, I have a hard time seeing how this team can finish 12-8 in the conference during the regular season. That would take improvement from Alihan, improvement from Gabe, and better bench play as the season goes on.

I know enough about Gabe to believe that he can play better for the rest of the season (he was good against Clemson). I don't know enough about Alihan to have strong doubts that that he can play better for the rest of the season. One thing I do have plenty of evidence to make a judgement about after six years: we are unlikely to see great bench play from a Pitino team. This year's edition seems to be following suit.
12-8 would put us around 6th in the conference, maybe 5th. That, plus a win in the first round of the B1G playoffs, would get us into the dance. Yep, it'll be interesting to see how this season plays out.
 

cjbfbp

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12-8 would put us around 6th in the conference, maybe 5th. That, plus a win in the first round of the B1G playoffs, would get us into the dance. Yep, it'll be interesting to see how this season plays out.
Yes, I said that showing might likely get us there. The problem is achieving that showing. Also, we don't know how many teams will go from the Big Ten this season. We can usually count on 6 or 7 but two years ago they took only 4 and last year they took 8. I doubt they will take 8 two years in a row.
 

BleedGopher

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Following tonight's lackluster loss at Iowa, we have officially under-performed one of Hodger's categories already, and it's only December 9. Minnesota is now 0-3 in Hodger's "Flip a Coin (go 4-2) category, where we are now 0-3 with loses to Oklahoma, Utah and Iowa. We'll have to over-perform in another area to make up for it.

Go Gophers!!
 

scools12

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The title of this thread needs to be changed to Gophers “Road to 12 Wins”
 

SelectionSunday

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I’m officially putting this thread to bed. Elvis has left the building!
 

Bad Gopher

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I agree that we may as well stop talking about the NCAA tournament. Let's just enjoy the games for what they're worth.
 

SelectionSunday

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I agree that we may as well stop talking about the NCAA tournament. Let's just enjoy the games for what they're worth.
Well said, BG. We're already to the point of the season where I say to myself, ""Well, the Gophers may stink, but there's still (personal) value in my season ticket because at least we get to see first-hand some really talented conference teams and individual players." This year it appears that'll mostly come from Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and to a lesser extent Iowa and Penn State.
 

Go Gophs

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I agree that we may as well stop talking about the NCAA tournament. Let's just enjoy the games for what they're worth.
Sad that it's that early in the season and they are probably out of it. It's plain to see though this team doesn't have the players, nor the gumption to make up for it.
 

Bad Gopher

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Sad that it's that early in the season and they are probably out of it. It's plain to see though this team doesn't have the players, nor the gumption to make up for it.
It could still be in play had they pulled out a couple of those non-conference games they couldn't get over the hump in, but... It's hard for a 10-seed to lose two pro-caliber players and experience such turnover on their roster and expect to return to the dance. What's happening is to be expected under these circumstances. Even Clem had down seasons the year after senior-heavy teams achieved big. The difference is that, in those situations, the shelf was being stocked for another run (e.g. Arriel McDonald, Randy Carter and Jayson Walton in the wake of the Elite Eight team). I don't see the cavalry coming over the hill like that this time. I hope Carr, Ihnen, Williams and Mashburn are that next wave. Their recruiting ratings are good, but will they really be that good of players, and will this staff be able to develop them?
 

scools12

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It could still be in play had they pulled out a couple of those non-conference games they couldn't get over the hump in, but... It's hard for a 10-seed to lose two pro-caliber players and experience such turnover on their roster and expect to return to the dance. What's happening is to be expected under these circumstances. Even Clem had down seasons the year after senior-heavy teams achieved big. The difference is that, in those situations, the shelf was being stocked for another run (e.g. Arriel McDonald, Randy Carter and Jayson Walton in the wake of the Elite Eight team). I don't see the cavalry coming over the hill like that this time. I hope Carr, Ihnen, Williams and Mashburn are that next wave. Their recruiting ratings are good, but will they really be that good of players, and will this staff be able to develop them?
I don't disagree with this. However, the difference was Clem had a NCAA Tourney run and the team pretty much played hard every night especially on their home floor. Plus Clem's didn't fall off to the level Pitino's teams have during the down years.
 

bfast

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Need these next two non-con games to get to 7 wins, then an 11-7 finish in the last 18 conference games should get them in the tournament.

Gonna be tough to keep an over .500 B1G team (with multiple high quality wins) out of the tournament even if they have only 17 or 18 overall wins.
 

ltf

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Just looked at our league schedule. First 11 games are brutal - will need to try to steal a few of those. Eases up considerably after that.
 

howeda7

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This thread was clearly bad luck. Let it RIP.
 

CoMn

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Can someone post the list again? Was it Bleed?
 
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