Gophers Path To NCAA Tournament Bid (21 Wins) As We Reach Big Ten Re-Start

Gophers_4life

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Those two wins alone won't get us there. Those two wins alone probably don't get us to the NIT. Need four wins anyway for the NCAA tournament. I don't think three will do it unless we win a one (or maybe even two) in the Big Ten tournament.
Yes that makes sense, I'm saying we need those two in order to get to four. Where else are they gonna come from??
 

Some guy

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Those two wins alone won't get us there. Those two wins alone probably don't get us to the NIT. Need four wins anyway for the NCAA tournament. I don't think three will do it unless we win a one (or maybe even two) in the Big Ten tournament.
Imo those two plus Rutgers and northwestern would be a lock
 

Gophers_4life

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Starts tonight. I think we need to win the next two to have a chance. If they really want it, they have to prove it tonight.
 

SelectionSunday

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Through Michigan State debacle

Tweaked this a bit. The extra non-conference win (projected in preseason to be 9-2) brings the Big Ten goal down from 12-8 to 11-9.

Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

Big Boy Pants Games -- no worse than 3-5 (1-4)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue (Lost 63-73)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin (Lost 51-56)
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State (Lost 55-79)
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 5-1 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-2 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED (and then some)

Big Ten: 11-9 (6-7 so far)
 
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Gophers_4life

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Unless something HUGE is figured out/changes ... and the result is that we sweep the next five games, including Michigan at home (which would mean we're good to go anyway) .... then I don't think we have any chance of getting two of three of the remaining "big boy" games. So I think you should adjust the big boy to 2-6 and increase the 50/50 to 5-3 .... which just boils down to what everyone is saying ... what this is all really boiling down to, is we need all four of @Neb, Ind, @Rut, @NW.
 

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Big Boy Pants Games -- no worse than 3-5 (1-4)
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-3)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 5-1 (4-1)
Feb. 16: Indiana

Big Ten: 11-9 (6-7 so far)
Edited to leave just the remaining games on the schedule.

Winning at least 5 of these games might seem a bit Pollyanna, but this team has enough talent to win each and every game left on their schedule.

Start tonight, and don't look back.
 

SelectionSunday

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Through Nebraska game

Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

Big Boy Pants Games -- no worse than 3-5 (1-4)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue (Lost 63-73)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin (Lost 51-56)
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State (Lost 55-79)
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-4)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska (Lost 61-62)
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 5-1 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-2 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED (and then some)

Big Ten: 11-9 (6-8 so far)
 

Gophers_4life

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Even if we managed to win all three remaining games at Williams, I don’t see us winning another game away from home for the rest of the season.
 

SelectionSunday

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Even if we managed to win all three remaining games at Williams, I don’t see us winning another game away from home for the rest of the season.
I'm as down as anyone on the Gophers' (historical) crappy road history, but did you watch Northwestern-Rutgers last night? Northwestern is terrible, and the few fans they do have have given up on the season. There was nobody there. If the Gophers don't beat Northwestern in Evanston this year, just shut it down.

Rutgers is another story. Their fans are pretty loyal, and their program is on an upswing. I expect the Gophers to find a way to lose at the RAC.
 
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SelectionSunday

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Through Indiana game

Wins Obtained: 17

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 4

Big Boy Pants Games -- no worse than 3-5 (1-4)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue (Lost 63-73)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin (Lost 51-56)
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State (Lost 55-79)
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-4)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska (Lost 61-62)
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 5-1 (5-1) — MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana (Won 84-63)

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 12-2 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED (and then some)

Big Ten: 11-9 (7-8 so far)
 

cjbfbp

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I'm as down as anyone on the Gophers' (historical) crappy road history, but did you watch Northwestern-Rutgers last night? Northwestern is terrible, and the few fans they do have have given up on the season. There was nobody there. If the Gophers don't beat Northwestern in Evanston this year, just shut it down.

Rutgers is another story. Their fans are pretty loyal, and their program is on an upswing. I expect the Gophers to find a way to lose at the RAC.
Yes, Rutgers is tough at home and they displayed that again in losing to Iowa by a desperation 3 with time expiring (second game in a row that happened for Iowa; they seem to have the fates on their side this season). Rutgers' lousy free throw shooting lost the game for them.

Rutgers' defensive strength matches our offensive strength pretty well. Those big men aren't offensively talented but they're tough on defense and are very good rebounders. I'd say the game at Rutgers is a close matchup even if we play pretty well. Their bad free throw shooting won't hurt them quite as much against us since we aren't that great at it either.

Agree about Northwestern. Indiana and Nebraska's losing streaks have overshadowed the fact that Northwestern is compiling a pretty dismal one of their own. For once it's nice to see that the Gophers aren't one of the Big Ten team in the process of an extended collapse.
 

cjbfbp

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Wins Obtained: 17

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 4
At this point, are you comfortable adjusting that down to 3 more wins?

If the powers are hell bent on taking as many Big Ten teams as possible, I'm wondering how Minnesota can be left out with a 20 wins and a 10-10 conference record. Only 8 teams really have a plausible hope of winning 20 games and finishing .500 or better in the conference.
 

Bad Gopher

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They're well behind Hodger's curve, but this is still so possible. I still feel like 10 conference wins including the BTT will get this done or at least give us a worthy resume. Beating Michigan would take care of a lot of our problems - and isn't that the litmus test of a tournament team? That you would be good enough not just to eke into the dance but actually have a chance to beat a ranked team once you're there?
 

cjbfbp

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They're well behind Hodger's curve, but this is still so possible. I still feel like 10 conference wins including the BTT will get this done or at least give us a worthy resume. Beating Michigan would take care of a lot of our problems - and isn't that the litmus test of a tournament team? That you would be good enough not just to eke into the dance but actually have a chance to beat a ranked team once you're there?
I think we matchup well against Michigan (except for the fact that they have a good point guard and we don't). They're not that strong inside and they don't have much depth either. I went back and looked at the Michigan game box score. I didn't remember that Oturu played only 10 minutes and didn't start in that game. If Oturu starts and can play anything close to 30 minutes I think we have a pretty fair shot. I actually think that @Rutgers could be a tougher matchup for us.

I would be amazed if we beat Purdue; they're just flat out a much better team than we are. I have little confidence of winning @Maryland. If we don't win @Northwestern, we have the right to be furious.
 

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1-7 road record is deeply concerning

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Gophers_4life

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Iowa had to beat both NW (at home) and Rutgers (in New Jersey) with last second 3pt shots.

Neither of those games, on the road, are going to be easy wins, and we need them both. Ideally need to beat both Michigan and Purdue at home, as well. Who knows ...
 

mnsportsgeek

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Iowa had to beat both NW (at home) and Rutgers (in New Jersey) with last second 3pt shots.

Neither of those games, on the road, are going to be easy wins, and we need them both. Ideally need to beat both Michigan and Purdue at home, as well. Who knows ...
Speaking of Iowa. How can you be so lucky as to miss a buzzer beater so badly that it goes in? Like, Gabe may have taken 6 steps before his, but at least it was pure.
 
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