Gophers Path To NCAA Tournament Bid (21 Wins) As We Reach Big Ten Re-Start

Otis

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The NET surely seems to be skewed away from simply winning games. Makes you wonder what it cost us to not finish that game out yesterday winning by 10 or 15?
I'm pretty sure we could win out and still be ranked behind Wisconsin.
 

cjbfbp

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So far, yes. I have no arguments with Virginia, but Wisconsin is NET 12 or 13, and it is really hard to see them as 3 or 4 seed in the tournament.
Yes. They get an awful lot out of their roster but they don't seem to be a team built for playing progressively more talented teams with little preparation time in the national tournament. Rating them any higher than a 6 or 7 seed wouldn't seem right.
 

howeda7

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NET seems like a metric that rewards teams like Wisconsin and Virginia as those two will rarely if ever get blown out due to style of play (slow, limited possessions) thus rewarding them for close losses even when they lose.
I'm convinced the rating was designed by Tony Bennett, Bo Ryan and BuiltBadger.
 

BleedGopher

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After tonight's great second half, the Gophers finish a perfect 9-0 for the season in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Bordergopher

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After tonight's great second half, the Gophers finish a perfect 9-0 for the season in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0" category.

Go Gophers!!
Now that’s efficiency! Oh, wait, not according to the NET...


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macgopher

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After tonight's great second half, the Gophers finish a perfect 9-0 for the season in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0" category.

Go Gophers!!
When do we up date the list? We all know what happened last night, but I need the updated list. It’s like waiting as a kid for the Sunday morning paper so I could the stats from the previous week;)
 

SelectionSunday

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Through Illinois game

Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-1)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-4 so far)
 
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Otis

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This list update is like crack SS!

Thanks!
 

WanderingGopher

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The list is fun, but at this point all you need to know is 5-5 on the back half of the B1G schedule will get us in. Doesn't matter which games. An 11-9 conf record would put us in the top-7 in a conference that is going to get 8 or 9 bids, to go along with a 10-1 nonconference record. We would be a lock.
 

SelectionSunday

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The list is fun, but at this point all you need to know is 5-5 on the back half of the B1G schedule will get us in. Doesn't matter which games. An 11-9 conf record would put us in the top-7 in a conference that is going to get 8 or 9 bids, to go along with a 10-1 nonconference record. We would be a lock.
I think we're pretty much all aware of that.

Everybody loves a killjoy. Thanks.
 

cjbfbp

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This is my favorite thread to check out after games. Thanks SS!


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Some of these categorizations need revision based on subsequent information. Indiana is no longer a "big boy." At Purdue is not a 50/50 game and I question whether Purdue at home will be "likely favored." I'd say at Maryland is less than a 50/50. Perhaps at Nebraska should be moved into the "likely favored" category.
 

SelectionSunday

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Some of these categorizations need revision based on subsequent information. Indiana is no longer a "big boy." At Purdue is not a 50/50 game and I question whether Purdue at home will be "likely favored." I'd say at Maryland is less than a 50/50. Perhaps at Nebraska should be moved into the "likely favored" category.
I already did some slight tweaking (see latest update), primarily the Indiana and Purdue games (as you pointed out). Tried not to change the number of games in each group, but found it impossible.
 
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Otis

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Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-1)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-4 so far)

I think the remaining games and the teams performances make for the above changes as put in BOLD.

Wisconsin could be moved into the 50-50 category but I'm thinking we are favored at home for that game, they are no better than Iowa. Tempting to move Indiana and @Nebraska into the Expected to win category, but why mess with perfection!
 
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SelectionSunday

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Wins Obtained: 16

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 5

The Big Boys -- no worse than 3-4 (1-1)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

50-50s -- no worse than 3-4 (2-3)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-2 (4-1)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (9-0) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois (Won 86-75)

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 11-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1) -- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Big Ten: 12-8 (6-4 so far)

I think the remaining games and the teams performances make for the above changes as put in BOLD.

Wisconsin could be moved into the 50-50 category but I'm thinking we are favored at home for that game, they are no better than Iowa. Tempting to move Indiana and @Nebraska into the Expected to win category, but why mess with perfection!
I now like Gophers' chances much better of winning in Lincoln, but even without Copeland there's no way I'd put that into the expected win category. At this point I'm not even convinced we'll be favored at Northwestern or Rutgers, but I'm leaving them in their original spots (likely favored).
 

Otis

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I now like Gophers' chances much better of winning in Lincoln, but even without Copeland there's no way I'd put that into the expected win category. At this point I'm not even convinced we'll be favored at Northwestern or Rutgers, but I'm leaving them in their original spots (likely favored).
"Expected wins @Nebraska should never be taken for granted." - P.J. Fleck
 

bga1

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4-6 the rest of the way would make us a lock. I want 12-8 or 11-9 but 10-10 will do. It is interesting the way the Big Ten standings are shaping up. With the way the conference performed in the non-conference games I have to believe 9 teams go to the tourney. We are going to have a ton of games against highly rated teams coming and if we play everyone tough, it is possible that even 9-11 gets in with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament. Right now the team in 8th place (Rutgers) is 4-6 and while they are tougher this year, that is probably not going to last. Next is OSU at 3-6. Right now it looks like MSU, Mich, Purdue, Wisky, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, and OSU with someone else from below sneaking up with a good second half of the conference and getting to 9-11 or 10-10 and getting in.

If we keep playing like we are right now- we will be fine.
 

Lincoln gopher

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"Expected wins @Nebraska should never be taken for granted." - P.J. Fleck
As a Gopher fan living in Nebraska, can't agree more. I have been to every Gopher football and basketball game played here in Lincoln and haven't been able to celebrate very many times. Basketball victories here in Lincoln have been surprisingly few and far between.
 

SelectionSunday

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What's getting lost in the shuffle is winning at Northwestern and/or Rutgers are likely to be quality wins (Quad 1 or Quad 2). Or, for the glass half-empty folks, they wouldn't be bad losses. That's where having a strong conference from top to bottom really kicks in.
 

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Something is off from the 50-50 category and the likely favored category. In the 50-50 you say no worse than 3-4, but there are only five games listed and we've gone 2-3. Did we fail? In the likely favored you say no worse than 6-2, but there are 10 games.

For those main five games that we need, Wisc, @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW .... some of them I think are definitely 50-50, and some of them are not quite that bad but I don't think of them as likely favored. That seems like no worse than 65-35. Those games seem more like 60-40 or maybe 55-45.
 

Otis

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Something is off from the 50-50 category and the likely favored category. In the 50-50 you say no worse than 3-4, but there are only five games listed and we've gone 2-3. Did we fail? In the likely favored you say no worse than 6-2, but there are 10 games.

For those main five games that we need, Wisc, @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW .... some of them I think are definitely 50-50, and some of them are not quite that bad but I don't think of them as likely favored. That seems like no worse than 65-35. Those games seem more like 60-40 or maybe 55-45.
I proposed re-shuffling the categories to match results and we didn't mess with the required wins.
 

cjbfbp

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I already did some slight tweaking (see latest update), primarily the Indiana and Purdue games (as you pointed out). Tried not to change the number of games in each group, but found it impossible.
Thanks. I see that with the most recent ones posted. Don't know why the previous posters didn't include the updated ones.
 

Gophers_4life

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I proposed re-shuffling the categories to match results and we didn't mess with the required wins.
Regardless how you label them, it shows we need five more wins to feel safe. So if you bump Wisc up into the "hard games", then we still need all four of @Neb, Indiana, @Rut, @NW, plus then one of the hard games ... Purdue's, Michigan, @MSU, @Mayland, Wisc.
 

Otis

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Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.
 

Gophers_4life

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Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.
They beat Michigan, I seem to recall. Just went to Neb and pulled away in the 2nd half.

Even if they aren't that good, it will still be that tough of a game for us because of the rivalry.
 

Otis

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They beat Michigan, I seem to recall. Just went to Neb and pulled away in the 2nd half.

Even if they aren't that good, it will still be that tough of a game for us because of the rivalry.
That would put them in the 50-50 category. Not Big Boy material.

Oh yeah, we nearly beat Michigan at Chrisler.
 

Bordergopher

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Wisconsin does not belong with the Michigan, @MSU, @MD or the Purdue games! They just aren't that good.
It feels like they aren’t that good, but they keep winning, and against good teams. None of us (myself included) like to call them good, so maybe that makes them a “really adequate” or “highly average” team?


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