Gophers Path To NCAA Tournament Bid (21 Wins) As We Reach Big Ten Re-Start

SelectionSunday

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Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 8

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-2)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (7-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 8-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1)

Big Ten: 12-8 (3-3 so far)
 

BleedGopher

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After tonight's close win over Penn State, the Gophers are now 8-0 in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

60's Guy

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With a little juggling of the outlined path, I can see a way to 21 wins. But, wow! If we make it, it's going to be a struggle.

Winning Tuesday, is one of the possible crooked paths. Go Gophers!
 

SelectionSunday

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Updated through Michigan game

Wins Obtained: 14

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 7

Gut-wrenching loss.

Protect the home court, Gophers. For the most part you’re on track with the path to 21. I’ll go into every home game expecting Gophers to win.

Beat Iowa.

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-1)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-2)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (8-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 9-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1)

Big Ten: 12-8 (4-4 so far)
 
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Unregistered User

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Florida state in trouble vs boston college
#11 FSU is now 1-4 in the ACC with their loss to BC

Leonard Hamilton is now one game under .500 in the ACC since joining FSU in 2002. He has 7 NIT appearances and 6 March Madness appearances and 3 no shows to either since joining FSU
 
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SelectionSunday

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Updated through Michigan game

Gut-wrenching loss.

Protect the home court, Gophers. For the most part you’re on track with the path to 21. I’ll go into every home game expecting Gophers to win.

Beat Iowa.

Wins Obtained: 14

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 7

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-1)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (3-2)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (8-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 9-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1)

Big Ten: 12-8 (4-4 so far)
 

BleedGopher

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After today's fun win over Iowa, Minnesota is now 4-2 in Hodger's "Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

SelectionSunday

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Through Iowa game

Wins Obtained: 15

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 6

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-1)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (4-2)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (8-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 10-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1)

Big Ten: 12-8 (5-4 so far)
 
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Livingat45north

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Wins Obtained: 15

Estimated Number of Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 6

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-1)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan (Lost 57-59)
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (2-2)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State (Lost 59-79)
Dec. 5: Nebraska (Won 85-78)
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin (Won 59-52)
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 5: Purdue
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (4-2)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (Won 83-76)
Jan. 8: Maryland (Lost 67-82)
Jan. 16: @ Illinois (Lost 68-95)
Jan. 27: Iowa (Won 92-87)
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (8-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State (Won 72-56)
Dec. 11: North Florida (Won 80-71)
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T (Won 86-67)
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's (Won 71-53)
Jan. 12: Rutgers (Won 88-70)
Jan. 19: Penn State (Won 65-64)
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 10-1 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (finished 10-1)

Big Ten: 12-8 (5-4 so far)
Winner of the "Best Thread" Award. Thanks Selection for putting this together.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold

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Worth noting that last nights win puts us on pace in all four categories. Here's hoping we close out the gimmes on Wednesday.
 

WanderingGopher

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Worth noting that last nights win puts us on pace in all four categories. Here's hoping we close out the gimmes on Wednesday.
21-10 is probably right about where we are going to finish (assuming we win most of our remaining home games and lose most road games). Also will finish right around SS's benchmarks in each category. If we then lose our BTT opener (Day 2), however, I'm not so certain that will result in a "stress free" selection sunday.
 

WanderingGopher

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FWIW, our RPI currently is 30. Really stinks they picked this year to change the formula. I don't like the way NET and some of the other formulas use margin of victory/margin of loss.
 

Winona Gopher

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I know Selection you have 21 wins as your benchmark for being in without a sweat, but I have a hard time seeing them being left out if they take care of their home court. That would leave them at 20 wins, but includes wins over Purdue, Michigan and a sweep of Wisconsin.
 

Holy Man

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FWIW, our RPI currently is 30. Really stinks they picked this year to change the formula. I don't like the way NET and some of the other formulas use margin of victory/margin of loss.
Any system that gives more credit for a close loss than a win is really messed up. Here is hoping the Gophers are not the example used as a team that "would have made it" under the old system of actually winning games, but missed out based on possession by possession metrics. I am hopeful that winning will take care of all of this, but currently it is maddening that the Gophers trail significantly in the NET teams they have beaten. Head to head should mean something, too, but faceless committees always worry me.
 

MinnGopher

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Im with you on this being the best thread! Looks like we are right on track, but man I'd really love a W over one of the Michigan schools or a nice road win against Maryland/Purdue. If we could end up 21-10 and then win a B1G tourney game I would imagine we are an 8 seed or better?
 

SelectionSunday

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I know Selection you have 21 wins as your benchmark for being in without a sweat, but I have a hard time seeing them being left out if they take care of their home court. That would leave them at 20 wins, but includes wins over Purdue, Michigan and a sweep of Wisconsin.
I wouldn't disagree with that. Would be hard to leave them out. However, I'd be concerned about only 1 true road win if that's how it ended up. Generally speaking, committee isn't always kind to homecourt heroes, but that's where the neutral-site win over Washington could really come in handy.
 

AO54

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I'd like to see Northwestern lose a few more games before I believe we're likely favored over them on the road. As of now, I'd say we're only the definite favorite in 3 of the remaining 11 games. Definite underdogs in 3 of the 11, and the remaining 50-50s includes @Nebraska and @Maryland which could quickly change things to 5 definite underdog games.

Getting 5 wins out of this last 11 will be very tough. I'd feel very comfortable on Selection Sunday if that happened. I think the B1G will continue to beat itself up, so 10-10 might put us top half of the league.
 
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Holy Man

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I'd like to see Northwestern lose a few more games before I believe we're likely favored over them on the road. As of now, I'd say we're only the definite favorite in 3 of the remaining 11 games. Definite underdogs in 3 of the 11, and the remaining 4 50-50s includes @Nebraska which could quickly change to a 4th definite underdog game.

Getting 5 wins out of this last 11 will be very tough. I'd feel very comfortable on Selection Sunday if that happened. I think the B1G will continue to beat itself up, so 10-10 might put us top half of the league.
The question for me is whether some of the middling teams give up. That's always the X factor late in the season. Teams like Northwestern, Indiana, and even potentially Iowa who had high expectations and haven't met them are at risk of mailing it in later in the season. That happens all the time. Conversely, teams like Illinois and Rutgers should scare the crap out of the middle of the pack. Young teams with some talent and nothing to lose are the worst ones to be facing in the late season and the tournament. Illinois is going to cost someone's tourney bid. I hope it's not ours.
 

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I would like to see, and I think they have a good chance, to go 4-0 against Illinois, Indiana, @ Rutgers, @NW.

Hoping they can sweep Nebraska in Lincoln as well.


But that means we need one more from: Purdue, @Purdue, Michigan, @Mich St, @Maryland, Wisconsin ......
 
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Some guy

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I would like to see, and I think they have a good chance, to go 4-0 against Illinois, Indiana, @ Rutgers, @NW.

Hoping they can sweep Nebraska in Lincoln as well.


But that means we need two more wins from: Purdue, @Purdue, Michigan, @Mich St, @Maryland, Wisconsin ......
Team is 5-4 in conference. Do you really think they need to go 12-8 in conference to make the tourney?
Washington might not lose a game in the pac 12
Utah currently 3rd in the pac 12
 

Gophers_4life

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Team is 5-4 in conference. Do you really think they need to go 12-8 in conference to make the tourney?
Washington might not lose a game in the pac 12
Utah currently 3rd in the pac 12
I'm going by the posts in the thread, it says 21 to be "comfortable" on selection Saturday. I think that can easily mean we still get in with less than 21 wins, but maybe not "comfortably".

EDIT: oops! I screwed up the post before. It should have been one more from ... not two. So anyway, that would be 11-9 in conf to be "comfortably" in.
 

AO54

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The question for me is whether some of the middling teams give up. That's always the X factor late in the season. Teams like Northwestern, Indiana, and even potentially Iowa who had high expectations and haven't met them are at risk of mailing it in later in the season. That happens all the time. Conversely, teams like Illinois and Rutgers should scare the crap out of the middle of the pack. Young teams with some talent and nothing to lose are the worst ones to be facing in the late season and the tournament. Illinois is going to cost someone's tourney bid. I hope it's not ours.
It would be a good year to play any of those 3 teams you mentioned twice, but instead the teams we play twice are either the really good teams or the scrappy teams --Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois and Rutgers.
 
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upnorthkid

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NET seems like a metric that rewards teams like Wisconsin and Virginia as those two will rarely if ever get blown out due to style of play (slow, limited possessions) thus rewarding them for close losses even when they lose.
 

Holy Man

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NET seems like a metric that rewards teams like Wisconsin and Virginia as those two will rarely if ever get blown out due to style of play (slow, limited possessions) thus rewarding them for close losses even when they lose.
So far, yes. I have no arguments with Virginia, but Wisconsin is NET 12 or 13, and it is really hard to see them as 3 or 4 seed in the tournament.
 

WoodburyTim

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The NET surely seems to be skewed away from simply winning games. Makes you wonder what it cost us to not finish that game out yesterday winning by 10 or 15?
 
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