Gophers open as 2.5 point favorite over Michigan

HoustonTXGopher

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So let me ask this. If you see P.J. at a restaurant do you go up and say something? I chose not to last night but our waitress said he’s there all the time and people come up to him all the time and he’s very nice to everyone who approaches him. I could of asked him about the Faalele and Dunlap rumors lol!
Anything more than a thumbs up after making contact is out of line as an adult. Bring your kids and they can go sit on his lap and eat his French fries.
 

Plato

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You'd think Auburn would've tried that, too?

If Michigan is going to try that, and especially if Dunlap isn't ready to go for the game, we need to have our screen game in tip-top form.

Screens eat blitzes for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
The success of screen plays depends on playing against a defense with dumb defensive backs and ends.
 

MplsGopher

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The success of screen plays depends on playing against a defense with dumb defensive backs and ends.
Perhaps normally, but like I was saying, vs. the blitz it's the best play you can have dialed up.
 

BilldGopher

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Can someone familiar with "betting-speak" explain what the "smart money" is doing with this line?
 

MGGopher

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Gophers +2.5 down here at FanDuel today, what info changed?
Wondering myself. I see MN +3.5 now at Draftkings. I'm about to get all over that, but I'm paranoid there's injury news or something I'm missing. To move 6 points in a day or two is crazy. Can that possibly all be from the public hammering Michigan?
 

Plato

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The "line" at this early stage without any ames played is arbitrary and subject to wide swings.
There is little "smart money" in sports betting. Do it as a hobby with $ you can afford to lose but have a day job.
The spread changes to keep the money bet at 50/50 for each team.
 

gophereric30

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Surprised. I had the Gophers as 3-7 point dogs in this one, especially since home field will be muted.

Solid respect from Vegas against a brand opponent. Will be a tease to the betting public to take points and Michigan against Minnesota
I may be wrong, but how would Michigan who hasnt beaten anybody on the road in a big game be favored over a ranked team? I'll be taking minnesota all day long. We will see though.
 

fmlizard

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I may be wrong, but how would Michigan who hasnt beaten anybody on the road in a big game be favored over a ranked team? I'll be taking minnesota all day long. We will see though.
Because it's Michigan and the Gophers have beaten them 4 times since 1968. The Gophers had failed in basically every big game for decades until November of last year. There's a lot of trends working against the M&G too.

The home field advantage will be minimal, as they all will in be the Big Ten this fall. Michigan is already up to 2.5 point favorites. What I think is curious is that ESPN's NumberFire and TeamRankings they reference moved the computer model of the game in the last day by a good amount, making Michigan now the favorite. What moved the computers??
 

RememberMurray

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Because it's Michigan and the Gophers have beaten them 4 times since 1968. The Gophers had failed in basically every big game for decades until November of last year. There's a lot of trends working against the M&G too.

The home field advantage will be minimal, as they all will in be the Big Ten this fall. Michigan is already up to 2.5 point favorites. What I think is curious is that ESPN's NumberFire and TeamRankings they reference moved the computer model of the game in the last day by a good amount, making Michigan now the favorite. What moved the computers??
Regarding the bolded part, I have a serious question, posed for posters who bet games and for those who don't:

What impact do games from the distant past have on games played in 2020? I'm only asking because the past history between the two teams gets mentioned frequently. How are Minnesota vs. Michigan games played in 1968, 1969, 1970, etc., relevant in any way to Minnesota vs. Michigan next Saturday at TCF?
 

Gophers1992

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Wondering myself. I see MN +3.5 now at Draftkings. I'm about to get all over that, but I'm paranoid there's injury news or something I'm missing. To move 6 points in a day or two is crazy. Can that possibly all be from the public hammering Michigan?
The Nebraska-OSU line started at 21.5 and is now at 26. From what it seemed the public just hammered money on OSU. I'm thinking the same happened when we were favored against Michigan.
 

Gophers1992

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Regarding the bolded part, I have a serious question, posed for posters who bet games and for those who don't:

What impact do games from the distant past have on games played in 2020? I'm only asking because the past history between the two teams gets mentioned frequently. How are Minnesota vs. Michigan games played in 1968, 1969, 1970, etc., relevant in any way to Minnesota vs. Michigan next Saturday at TCF?
They aren't, it's just a dumb talking point people like to bring up. Fun (or in our case not fun) to talk about, but zero impact on a game played 50 years later.
 

fmlizard

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Regarding the bolded part, I have a serious question, posed for posters who bet games and for those who don't:

What impact do games from the distant past have on games played in 2020? I'm only asking because the past history between the two teams gets mentioned frequently. How are Minnesota vs. Michigan games played in 1968, 1969, 1970, etc., relevant in any way to Minnesota vs. Michigan next Saturday at TCF?
They don't have an impact in the real sense. Obviously it doesn't matter what happened in the 1978 Minnesota Michigan game, or even the one a couple years back. Jerry Kill went from losing 58-0 to running Brady Hoke out of Michigan in 3 years.

But if you want to explain why the public moved a line relatively far and fast towards Michigan, it's because few are comfortable giving points sight unseen on something historically uncommon. It just looks like a line to jump on for the public who doesn't follow either team.
 

gophereric30

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The fact that minnesota has beaten michigan only 4 times since 1968 means absolutely nothing, but people not in the know are going to look at michigan vs. minnesota and bet michigan because of the name. It looks to easy. Thats whats driving the number to michigan being favored by 3 or 3.5. Thats a good sign for minnesota bettors because what does the betting public usually do? THEY LOSE! lol
 

MNVCGUY

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The fact that minnesota has beaten michigan only 4 times since 1968 means absolutely nothing, but people not in the know are going to look at michigan vs. minnesota and bet michigan because of the name. It looks to easy. Thats whats driving the number to michigan being favored by 3 or 3.5. Thats a good sign for minnesota bettors because what does the betting public usually do? THEY LOSE! lol
Agree, honestly, betting on any Big Ten games right now feels foolish because early season games are already a crap shoot most of the time in terms of how teams are going to look and that is especially valid coming off one of the strangest off seasons ever. Really tough to say how good anyone is going to look right off the bat in the BIG.
 

Otis

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When the line came out favoring Minny people started betting heavy Michigan and they moved the line. Not surprising considering the history and the reputations of the two teams.

Fleck and the Gophers don't pay much attention to what they are supposed to do and what they are expected to perform like so expect Michigan to get all they can handle and more.

I don't see the Jug leaving Minneapolis Saturday.

Gophers by 7.5
 

Face The Facts

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Regarding historical significance, it's likely a reason why Michigan is now favored (6-7 point swing).

Of any rivalry in sports, this one may be as one-sided as any, so it's not hard to believe that people may doubt the Gophers ability to beat Michigan.

Last time they played, it was a bigger blowout than the score indicates.

People aren't hammering the Michigan side right now because of what they've seen from the two teams over the last 9-10 months. That's for certain.
 

saintpauljeff

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Wondering myself. I see MN +3.5 now at Draftkings. I'm about to get all over that, but I'm paranoid there's injury news or something I'm missing. To move 6 points in a day or two is crazy. Can that possibly all be from the public hammering Michigan?
+3.5 at FanDuel too, guessing the COVID news was out yesterday although I didn't see anything public... someone somewhere had the inside track and all the books knew it too
 

Cayman

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This is what I’d like to know. When is the last time the Gophers were favored vs Michigan?
First guesses that come to mind are 2014 and 2015, but wouldn’t surprise me if we were underdogs in both. Maybe against Michigan’s rock bottom 2008 team that finished 3-9?
 
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