Gophers #4 seed in Jerry Palm bracketology

golf

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Not sure if this deserves its own thread, but imagine the reaction to a suggestion two weeks ago that we would be in line for a 4 seed.

 

builtbadgers

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10 days ago i had us as a 5. Seems about right at 4. Hope people remember the very thin line between 4-5's and 8 or 9.
 

Cayman

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A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
 
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builtbadgers

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A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
Many people want to see the Hauser-Hauser match up but that is not how things are put together. Besides, i would be surprised to see UVA even make it.
 

Otis

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Not sure if this deserves its own thread, but imagine the reaction to a suggestion two weeks ago that we would be in line for a 4 seed.

I have been looking for at least a #2 seed since we beat Iowa.

I demand satisfaction!
 

leib0039

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5 seed in Lunardi's update. I guess the good news is we likely wont be a 5 seed ha With a tough big ten feels like we get up to a 4 or higher of if we lost a few down in the 7-9 range.

overall a good "problem" to have!
 

golf

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A 4 seed would be great. The 12 seed line seems to usually be where the last of the at-large bids go, where you play either a power conference team or a high-tier mid-major, both of which can put up a fight, while 13 seeds are more often the auto-bid winners from mid- and low-major conferences, and likely a bigger drop off in quality than from an 11 to a 12 seed team, or a 13 to a 14 seed. In other words, I think a 13 seed has a good chance to be a substantially easier opponent for us than a 12 seed, and makes a first round win and round of 32 appearance much more likely.

A couple matchups here that don't seem like accidents:

8 Michigan State vs. 9 Virginia. Michigan State knocked Virginia out of the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2015, and they were supposed to play this year as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the game was canceled.

3 Missouri vs. 14 Norfolk State. 15 seed Norfolk State upset 2 seed Missouri in 2012.
The dreaded 5 seed. Just looked it up and 4 seed loses 21% of time while 5 seed loses 36% in first round. 6 seed loses 37% of time in first round.

Could make an argument that 6 seed is better than 5 seed as wouldnt theoretically meet a 1 seed until the elite 8.
 

golf

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5 seed in Lunardi's update. I guess the good news is we likely wont be a 5 seed ha With a tough big ten feels like we get up to a 4 or higher of if we lost a few down in the 7-9 range.

overall a good "problem" to have!
Yeah, he has 10 big ten teams in the tournament. Maryland are Purdue are out.
Purdue is first 4 out and Maryland next 4 out.
 

howeda7

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I remember when we were a #5 seed a few years ago. Total trap game. That Middle Tenn team was probably also deserving of a 7-9 seed, not a 12. Let's avoid the #5 seed, lol. I'll take it but, total trap games!
They over-seeded us as a 5 when we should have been a 7. But made up for it by giving MTSU a 12 when they should have been a 10.
 

gopherguy15

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I have a bad feeling that we're going to get Drake if we make the tournament
The NCAA loves drama in the tournament. They'd do everything possible to pit Hauser vs Hauser, or Pitino vs Pitino (we would need a really high seed for that). Liam vs his old team would definitely fit that mold.

I watched Drake last night, and don't get me wrong. They have a nice team, but they had an EXTREMELY weak non-conference. According to Kenpom, their non-conference SOS was 309. That doesn't mean I don't respect a perfect record, but they basically haven't been challenged yet.
 
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