spermophilus
Active member
As always, per the Vegas Insider site, and for entertainment purposes only.
Golden Gophers Open @ +6.5 vs Penn State
- Thread starter spermophilus
- Start date
GophersInIowa
Well-known member
That seems about right.
Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0
New Orleans 2020
No respect!!
saintpauljeff
Active member
Circa PSU -7, Westgate PSU -6.5
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Hollinsanity
Active member
My strategy
+6.5 or less: hammer the ML!!
+7: could go either way!!
+7.5 or more: take the points!!!
+6.5 or less: hammer the ML!!
+7: could go either way!!
+7.5 or more: take the points!!!
A_Slab_of_Bacon
Well-known member
Are we using machine learning?
PoockItInfor6
Member
Line should be 2.5
Pompous Elitist
Well-known member
Implies about a 30% chance of winning. Seems about right although I lean towards 40/60 coming out of a bye, motivation level, prep time, getting essential guys healthier.
die hard gopher
Well-known member
crack in the shoulder should be expanding
gopherbadgerman
Active member
Sounds about right. Goal is to split the money. Interested to see how it’s gonna move.
upnorthkid
Well-known member
Then you should be it
I would not be shocked or surprised...I would say most informed observers would not be either...say a Herbstreit or Revsine type.
We were dead even with Penn State on the road three years ago. Beat them last time they were here. They were close with Iowa and Pitt this year, two teams I, and most metrics, think we are better than. Homefield in November. Should be a pumped crowd.
We were dead even with Penn State on the road three years ago. Beat them last time they were here. They were close with Iowa and Pitt this year, two teams I, and most metrics, think we are better than. Homefield in November. Should be a pumped crowd.
Great Plains Gopher
Well-known member
My mind sends a message: Gophers can't win against such a powerhouse, but some wicked little fly, the last before winter, keeps buzzing around my head whining that they can win a close game with a heroic effort. As others here have pointed out, it may come down to oddball happenstances, fumbles, bad breaks, some weird football accident like a tipped interception, a field goal bouncing off the posts. Gophers win by two. The fly will be dead by the time Gophers play Iowa.
PoockItInfor6
Member
Statistically it should be 2.5. Perceptions of people who bet influence where the line is set.
hello-world
Active member
I booked this one. This line looks out-of-whack to me, but sports gambling is fickle. You can make a lot of money being right 54% of the time, but you have to make a lot of bets.
I'm up over the course of my life, and I'm up over the course of this year, but I'm also wrong nearly as often as I'm right.
I'm up over the course of my life, and I'm up over the course of this year, but I'm also wrong nearly as often as I'm right.
Pompous Elitist
Well-known member
I know, but as a team with less depth it’s more helpful to us in terms of health. And, as an underdog time to prep for the biggest test of the season by far.
hello-world
Active member
I trust SP+ far more than I trust Sagarin.
Replacement Gopher
Well-known member
I’m going with the emotional hedge and taking PSU on the money line.
Given the way both teams have played the past month and a half - and I've watched plenty of both - this game is a toss-up when played @TCF. The keys to this games are to (1) contain KJ Handler, (2) contain their passing game to the TE, and (3) block well against the PSU D-line, which is filled with high-end players. In the cold, I'd be surprised if both teams score more than 20.
BroncoRedux
Member
I believe PSU opened as a 5.5 favorite at MSU. Have they gotten better or is MSU seen as a tougher opponent?
RememberMurray
Well-known member
Why would anyone think the bolded part?
Minnesota has won 5 of the last 10 meetings. The majority of the games played between these teams have been quite close.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota–Penn_State_football_rivalry
Other than the '99 team, the gophers did not beat powerhouse PSU teams. In our last 4 wins only the '13 PSU team finished above .500. I don't think its unreasonable to think that the Gophers may not compete well with a top 10 team regardless if I think that we will win comfortably on Sat.
Bring back the Axe
Member
The point spread surprised me for this reason, and also because the Gophers have been completely dominant for the past month and are at home in possibly harsh weather. Obviously, public sentiment is that PSU is a top 5 team, and the Gophers 'haven't played anyone', and this line reflects that. But, I thought Vegas might play off of that and take a side in this game (yes, they occasionally do), and make the line tighter to suck in Penn St money.
Gopherlife
Member
PSU didn't beat powerhouse Gopher teams, either.
RememberMurray
Well-known member
And has Penn State ever beaten an 8-0 Minnesota team? Let's check:
Nope.
Yes, you're correct in saying that Penn State 2019 is a better team than recent Penn State teams.
But it's also true that Minnesota 2019 is better than any recent Minnesota team.
I think the Gophers will compete very well. And if the Gophers beat Penn State, I'm betting some local media types will say, "Well, it's obvious that this really isn't a great Penn State team."