Golden Gophers Open @ +6.5 vs Penn State

Pompous Elitist

Well-known member
Implies about a 30% chance of winning. Seems about right although I lean towards 40/60 coming out of a bye, motivation level, prep time, getting essential guys healthier.
 

swingman

Well-known member
I would not be shocked or surprised...I would say most informed observers would not be either...say a Herbstreit or Revsine type.

We were dead even with Penn State on the road three years ago. Beat them last time they were here. They were close with Iowa and Pitt this year, two teams I, and most metrics, think we are better than. Homefield in November. Should be a pumped crowd.
 

Great Plains Gopher

Well-known member
My mind sends a message: Gophers can't win against such a powerhouse, but some wicked little fly, the last before winter, keeps buzzing around my head whining that they can win a close game with a heroic effort. As others here have pointed out, it may come down to oddball happenstances, fumbles, bad breaks, some weird football accident like a tipped interception, a field goal bouncing off the posts. Gophers win by two. The fly will be dead by the time Gophers play Iowa.
 
I would not be shocked or surprised...I would say most informed observers would not be either...say a Herbstreit or Revsine type.

We were dead even with Penn State on the road three years ago. Beat them last time they were here. They were close with Iowa and Pitt this year, two teams I, and most metrics, think we are better than. Homefield in November. Should be a pumped crowd.
Then you should be it
Statistically it should be 2.5. Perceptions of people who bet influence where the line is set.
 

hello-world

Active member
I booked this one. This line looks out-of-whack to me, but sports gambling is fickle. You can make a lot of money being right 54% of the time, but you have to make a lot of bets.

I'm up over the course of my life, and I'm up over the course of this year, but I'm also wrong nearly as often as I'm right.
 

cncmin

Well-known member
Given the way both teams have played the past month and a half - and I've watched plenty of both - this game is a toss-up when played @TCF. The keys to this games are to (1) contain KJ Handler, (2) contain their passing game to the TE, and (3) block well against the PSU D-line, which is filled with high-end players. In the cold, I'd be surprised if both teams score more than 20.
 

RememberMurray

Well-known member
My mind sends a message: Gophers can't win against such a powerhouse, but some wicked little fly, the last before winter, keeps buzzing around my head whining that they can win a close game with a heroic effort. As others here have pointed out, it may come down to oddball happenstances, fumbles, bad breaks, some weird football accident like a tipped interception, a field goal bouncing off the posts. Gophers win by two. The fly will be dead by the time Gophers play Iowa.
Why would anyone think the bolded part?

Minnesota has won 5 of the last 10 meetings. The majority of the games played between these teams have been quite close.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota–Penn_State_football_rivalry
 

noamfromm

Member
Why would anyone think the bolded part?

Minnesota has won 5 of the last 10 meetings. The majority of the games played between these teams have been quite close.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota–Penn_State_football_rivalry
Other than the '99 team, the gophers did not beat powerhouse PSU teams. In our last 4 wins only the '13 PSU team finished above .500. I don't think its unreasonable to think that the Gophers may not compete well with a top 10 team regardless if I think that we will win comfortably on Sat.
 
I would not be shocked or surprised...I would say most informed observers would not be either...say a Herbstreit or Revsine type.

We were dead even with Penn State on the road three years ago. Beat them last time they were here. They were close with Iowa and Pitt this year, two teams I, and most metrics, think we are better than. Homefield in November. Should be a pumped crowd.

The point spread surprised me for this reason, and also because the Gophers have been completely dominant for the past month and are at home in possibly harsh weather. Obviously, public sentiment is that PSU is a top 5 team, and the Gophers 'haven't played anyone', and this line reflects that. But, I thought Vegas might play off of that and take a side in this game (yes, they occasionally do), and make the line tighter to suck in Penn St money.
 
Other than the '99 team, the gophers did not beat powerhouse PSU teams. In our last 4 wins only the '13 PSU team finished above .500. I don't think its unreasonable to think that the Gophers may not compete well with a top 10 team regardless if I think that we will win comfortably on Sat.
PSU didn't beat powerhouse Gopher teams, either.
 

PitinoFan

Well-known member
It went to +7, then back down to +6.5.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is a 44 point favorite at home against Maryland.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

RememberMurray

Well-known member
Other than the '99 team, the gophers did not beat powerhouse PSU teams. In our last 4 wins only the '13 PSU team finished above .500. I don't think its unreasonable to think that the Gophers may not compete well with a top 10 team regardless if I think that we will win comfortably on Sat.
And has Penn State ever beaten an 8-0 Minnesota team? Let's check:


Nope.


Yes, you're correct in saying that Penn State 2019 is a better team than recent Penn State teams.

But it's also true that Minnesota 2019 is better than any recent Minnesota team.

I think the Gophers will compete very well. And if the Gophers beat Penn State, I'm betting some local media types will say, "Well, it's obvious that this really isn't a great Penn State team."
 
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