Gary Parrish: Second-semester, conference-only basketball schedules are becoming a real possibility

BleedGopher

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per Parrish:


The National Junior College Athletic Association announced Monday that it will not conduct any "close-contact" sports -- like football and basketball -- in the fall semester. Instead, the NJCAA's new plan is to start basketball season in January and football season in March. And though this isn't necessarily a sign of what's to come at the Division I level, it sure feels like it could be as COVID-19 cases continue to spike in a way that makes playing college sports in the United States any time soon difficult bordering on impossible.

In short, things are not going well.

The Big Ten and Pac-12 have already announced they will not play non-league football games this fall, and more power conferences are expected to eventually do the same (if they even play football at all in the fall, which is obviously in question). Meantime, few people outside of college basketball are really focused on college basketball right now because college football is scheduled to start sooner, it's bigger, more profitable and thus the priority. But almost nobody I've spoken with connected to the sport in the past week believes college basketball will start on time. And the growing assumption among decision-makers is that second-semester, conference-only schedules are a real possibility.

It's easy to understand why.

First and foremost, COVID-19 cases in many states are increasing in a way that they are either starting to stress hospitals or are on a trajectory to do so soon. And as SEC commissioner Greg Sankey more or less said on radio Monday, don't expect to see college sports happening in the fall with an overwhelmed healthcare system. Beyond that, think about what comprises most power-conference programs' non-league basketball schedules: buy games. And buy games -- i.e., games created when schools pay other schools to come and play a single game -- don't look like they're going to be worth playing in November and December because they're likely to be money-losers that present unnecessary risks.

Let me walk you through it.

Under normal circumstances, a school like Louisville might pay a school like Youngstown State $85,000 to visit the Yum! Center for a game. Then that game is made part of a season-ticket package, fans are asked to pay just as much for that game as they would for a game against Duke or Virginia, and Louisville makes lots and lots of money. That's why the Cardinals played seven buy games last season -- because it's a great way to spend $85,000 to make hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions of dollars, in return.

But not if you can't sell tickets!


Go Gophers!!
 

Biggsohnasty

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I'm confused as to why so many believe, if things continue to get worse and worse, why in January, things will suddenly be better?

Parrish didn't cite January as the start date, but that's the date that always gets floated when people are thinking of of solutions. But are things going to be fixed in January if they aren't in November?
 

TruthSeeker

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Collegiate sports aren't happening.

We should start asking if all collegiate sports will completely vanish.
 

MplsGopher

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I'm confused as to why so many believe, if things continue to get worse and worse, why in January, things will suddenly be better?

Parrish didn't cite January as the start date, but that's the date that always gets floated when people are thinking of of solutions. But are things going to be fixed in January if they aren't in November?
Literally everything depends on the success of the vaccine candidates that are in phase 3 trials.

If those pass, later this year, they’ll be treated as a magic wand.
 

leib0039

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Collegiate sports aren't happening.

We should start asking if all collegiate sports will completely vanish.
While if I was forced to wager money, I would probably bet on the first scenario of them not happening this year, I also think the second statement is a total overstatement.

There is way too much money, history, and necessity on the line for them to ever go away. Sure things will change, but there is no way Duke cancels their bball program or Texas doesnt have a football team, that just is never going to happen. I think it could cause some smaller D3 level schools to drop sports and will cause a big shift in how D1 schools operate their sports budgets, but the big ticket items simply can't go away. How viable a rowing, squash or bowling team is to fund I don't know, but that may have been something a school was looking to dump anyway, this just gives them a shot at that. It is too bad for the kids in those sports who aren't going to have that opportunity but in the grand scheme of things that is fairly minor of an issue.
 

short ornery norwegian

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if D1 schools don't get their NCAA Hoops TV money, that will really be when the stuff hits the fan.

The FB money tends to be handled on a conference-by-conference basis. But the Hoops TV money runs through the NCAA - and that is the real cash cow for the NCAA.

the NCAA will do everything possible to have the tournament. even if it means playing a short regular season, skipping conference tournaments, and going right into the NCAA Tournament. as long as that TV $ shows up in the bank account.

of course, it all depends on the virus and whether a vaccine is viable and available by late this year or early next year. March Madness could wind up being April or May Madness if necessary.
 

alchemy2u

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Collegiate sports aren't happening.

We should start asking if all collegiate sports will completely vanish.
ha ha ha ha..... College sports will take a hit, but to think it will fold up is ridiculous. There is an incredible demand for college sports. They are not demolishing the arenas, institutions, conferences, etc... As soon as they are able to play the fans will pay to watch.
 

alchemy2u

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if D1 schools don't get their NCAA Hoops TV money, that will really be when the stuff hits the fan.

The FB money tends to be handled on a conference-by-conference basis. But the Hoops TV money runs through the NCAA - and that is the real cash cow for the NCAA.

the NCAA will do everything possible to have the tournament. even if it means playing a short regular season, skipping conference tournaments, and going right into the NCAA Tournament. as long as that TV $ shows up in the bank account.

of course, it all depends on the virus and whether a vaccine is viable and available by late this year or early next year. March Madness could wind up being April or May Madness if necessary.
The NCAA is what could take a hit. With teams switching to play only conference games, the big conferences could just squeeze out the NCAA.
 

jovs

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ha ha ha ha..... College sports will take a hit, but to think it will fold up is ridiculous. There is an incredible demand for college sports. They are not demolishing the arenas, institutions, conferences, etc... As soon as they are able to play the fans will pay to watch.
Not sure I agree, non revenue sports are going to be squeezed big time, some are probably not going to exist long term.
 

goldenboy

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Only a small percentage of athletic departments run budgets in the black in a normal year. If the revenue sports don’t play we will absolutely see spirts being cut and some struggling schools drop athletics altogether. A year from now there will be more schools that look like the University of Chicago, who most people have never heard about since they dropped out of the Big Ten.
 

MplsGopher

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Only a small percentage of athletic departments run budgets in the black in a normal year. If the revenue sports don’t play we will absolutely see spirts being cut and some struggling schools drop athletics altogether. A year from now there will be more schools that look like the University of Chicago, who most people have never heard about since they dropped out of the Big Ten.
UChicago is correctly world renowned. If you don’t care at all about academics, that’s fine. But it wasn’t a good example, for an otherwise good point.
 

short ornery norwegian

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IF there is a vaccine by early next year, and this becomes a fairly limited event, then I think college sports will survive with minor impact.

BUT - if there is no vaccine and this goes into next summer, then you could really see some long-term consequences with schools dropping sports or scaling way back on budgets.

and, unfortunately, as the most expensive sport to operate, football will take a big hit at the D3 and D2 levels where there is no TV money to cushion the blow.
 

eker0016

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I wonder if a guy like Suggs sticks with Gonzaga if this happens. How worthwhile is it to move to rural Washington so you can play Santa Clara, Pepperdine, Pacific University and San Francisco?
 

howeda7

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if D1 schools don't get their NCAA Hoops TV money, that will really be when the stuff hits the fan.

The FB money tends to be handled on a conference-by-conference basis. But the Hoops TV money runs through the NCAA - and that is the real cash cow for the NCAA.

the NCAA will do everything possible to have the tournament. even if it means playing a short regular season, skipping conference tournaments, and going right into the NCAA Tournament. as long as that TV $ shows up in the bank account.

of course, it all depends on the virus and whether a vaccine is viable and available by late this year or early next year. March Madness could wind up being April or May Madness if necessary.
You might have said all of this about 2020 March Madness and it didn't happen. Obviously the odds are better that it will happen in 2021. But far from a lock.
 

GophersInIowa

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Collegiate sports aren't happening.

We should start asking if all collegiate sports will completely vanish.
The revenue sports will be alright. But we might start to see more of the non-revenue sports become club.
 

SelectionSunday

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The revenue sports will be alright. But we might start to see more of the non-revenue sports become club.
Bingo.

If football & men’s basketball don’t happen in 2020-21, it’s coming, the next hot button topic will be women’s sports & Title IX. Because a lot of women’s sports are going by the wayside without those two breadwinners.
 

MplsGopher

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What a sissified society this has become, if so. Scared to live.
Encourage you to stay in your underground bunker and don't come out.

We don't need you up here on the ground, anyway.
 

MplsGopher

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Bingo.

If football & men’s basketball don’t happen in 2020-21, it’s coming, the next hot button topic will be women’s sports & Title IX. Because a lot of women’s sports are going by the wayside without those two breadwinners.
Title IX will never go away. There will always be some number of women's teams to balance out the opportunities given to male athletes.

What I could see is them lowering the minimum number of varsity sports that are required to be sponsored in Division I. Could legit see schools saying: we're only going to have football, men's basketball, women's basketball, women's soccer, women's volleyball, and softball as varsity sports.

The rest will be supported as club teams, free to join their own regional/national governing associations of club teams in those sports.
 

GopherBlood666

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Encourage you to stay in your underground bunker and don't come out.

We don't need you up here on the ground, anyway.
Because he doesn't want to live in fear? I think his point is that he refuses to retreat to an underground bunker.
 

Mulligan

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Because he doesn't want to live in fear? I think his point is that he refuses to retreat to an underground bunker.
Good grief! Nobody is retreating to underground bunkers. The hyperbole and hysteria from the right is every bit as ridiculous as what they constantly accuse the left of. I'm not "living in fear," but 140,000 deaths and counting gets my attention. Beating the same drum, but the folks who whine about distancing and wearing masks because it takes away their weird definition of liberty are the ones who are making having sports more unlikely.
 

bga1

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Good grief! Nobody is retreating to underground bunkers. The hyperbole and hysteria from the right is every bit as ridiculous as what they constantly accuse the left of. I'm not "living in fear," but 140,000 deaths and counting gets my attention. Beating the same drum, but the folks who whine about distancing and wearing masks because it takes away their weird definition of liberty are the ones who are making having sports more unlikely.
Do these numbers get your attention?
Over 600,000 abortions per year (yes real humans) in the US
80,000 alcohol related deaths
65,000 drug overdose deaths
60,000 annual flu deaths

Let me know when we are doing something about those and I will take you seriously.

Most of the Covid 19 deaths this year will be people who would have died anyway this year. There is very little danger to those who are not old or have co-morbidities. Those of us who are healthy should go about the business of life and protect those who are old or sick. Keep your distance, wash your hands and stay away from others while sick. There is no reason to cancel life.
 

MplsGopher

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Same old bulls__t about things that have nothing to do with a contagious disease, and lying about the deaths being people who were about to die anyway. Different day. :rolleyes:
 

bga1

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Same old bulls__t about things that have nothing to do with a contagious disease, and lying about the deaths being people who were about to die anyway. Different day. :rolleyes:
97,000 of 121,000 deaths on this CDC chart over 65 years old. Almost all of them with co morbidity factors.
 

MplsGopher

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And? Very few of them would have died this year if covid never happened.
 

bga1

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And? Very few of them would have died this year if covid never happened.
R-i-g-h-t. Almost none of the 81% of Minnesota deaths which were in nursing homes would have died this year.... :rolleyes: . Neil Ferguson the UK epidemioligist famous for his covid models estimated that 67% of the people dying in the UK of covid would have died anyway this year.
 

MplsGopher

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R-i-g-h-t. Almost none of the 81% of Minnesota deaths which were in nursing homes would have died this year.... :rolleyes: . Neil Ferguson the UK epidemioligist famous for his covid models estimated that 67% of the people dying in the UK of covid would have died anyway this year.
In other words, you don’t have the slightest clue how many of the nursing home covid deaths in MN would have died this year and are lying your ass off to suit your extremist agenda.
 
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