Football Scoop: Study: Five-stars are worth $650,000 per year; 2-star recruits cost his school $13,000 per year

BleedGopher

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per Zach:

A study attempting to isolate the value of blue-chip recruits found that a 5-star recruits is worth, on average, $650,000 per year to his college program.

The study, led by Ohio State economics professor Trevon Logan and to be published in Journal of Sports Economics, examined Rivals recruiting classes and attempted to parcel out what each recruit was worth to his school’s revenue from 2002 through ’12.

“There have been a lot of numbers put out there about how much college athletes should get under various compensation proposals,” Logan said. “But it’s hard to do that when you don’t know how players affect the bottom line. That’s what we’re trying to do here.”

The study found that each 5-star was worth .437 wins per season, but allowed that an individual 5-star may be worth more to Rutgers than Alabama. Four-stars were worth .159 wins, finding that one 5-star was worth more than two 4-stars.

The study found that even when removing team factors — essentially, controlling for the fact that Alabama’s roster isn’t that different with 10 5-stars versus 11 — the study found each 5-star “increase revenue by nearly $200,000, while four star recruits increase revenue by nearly $90,000.”

Conversely, the study found that each 2-star recruit cost his school $13,000 per year.


Go Gophers!!
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon

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I wonder how they measure that since 5* guys largely go to successful / highly profitable teams and others do not... IMO it would dramatically change the math if a 5* guy went to backwater U in terms of what kind of $ profit they represent.

I'm not at all sure how you decouple some of that.
 

GopherPete

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I agree in that there are certainly variables that simply cannot be controlled and therefore you cannot apply equally to each school.
 

kix4kix

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Breaking news! Good players are worth far more than tuition in a free market environment!!!!

It's a terrible study based off the article, but the overarching message is that players should be paid.
 

short ornery norwegian

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If the research is valid, then it would seem to indicate that schools should go all-out to try and land 5* or 4* recruits, because having more high-end players helps you win games. (thank you, Captain Obvious).

Obviously, that is easier said than done - but I mean that in the sense that some schools seem to have a recruiting strategy of "Well, we may not land any 5* or high 4* players, but we'll get a bunch of 3* players and coach them up."

If the study is valid, it would seem to suggest that you would be better off expending more recruiting resources to land higher-rated recruits.
 

Lakeville Goldy

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Breaking news! Good players are worth far more than tuition in a free market environment!!!!

It's a terrible study based off the article, but the overarching message is that players should be paid.
By that logic non-revenue athletes should not only not get scholarships, they should have to pay to participate in athletics.
 

Yah-E

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When do you think we'll even get a 5* player?

Do you think Coach just doesn't go for 5* players because he wants/likes to prove something with 3* and 4* players? I get that he only wants players that fits "us" and his team, but wouldn't be nice to land a 5* player someday? What are your thoughts on why we don't even have a 5* player for official visits even (Pre-COVID19 years)?

I'm looking down on all of the 5* players in 2021 class, NONE of them have a Minnesota offer? WTF?
 

noamfromm

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When do you think we'll even get a 5* player?

Do you think Coach just doesn't go for 5* players because he wants/likes to prove something with 3* and 4* players? I get that he only wants players that fits "us" and his team, but wouldn't be nice to land a 5* player someday? What are your thoughts on why we don't even have a 5* player for official visits even (Pre-COVID19 years)?

I'm looking down on all of the 5* players in 2021 class, NONE of them have a Minnesota offer? WTF?
We were recruiting Dontae Manning in the last class --- and just off the top of my head I know your claim is wrong because we offered Michigan's 2021 QB recruit and he is a 5*.
 

Keyser Söze

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When do you think we'll even get a 5* player?

Do you think Coach just doesn't go for 5* players because he wants/likes to prove something with 3* and 4* players? I get that he only wants players that fits "us" and his team, but wouldn't be nice to land a 5* player someday? What are your thoughts on why we don't even have a 5* player for official visits even (Pre-COVID19 years)?

I'm looking down on all of the 5* players in 2021 class, NONE of them have a Minnesota offer? WTF?
1587170492985.png
 

rugger14

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PJ is not avoiding 5 stars. They don't really want to come here yet. We are not Bama, Clemson, or tOSU. Give PJ a few years.
 

Keyser Söze

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In due time they will if they start performing like a CFB Playoff team in succeeding years.

Remember, they are serious with the ultimate goal of a National Championship.
Love how recruiting is going and where PJ is taking the program. I have no doubt we will get 5-stars at some point. The post I was responding to implied that the reason we aren't getting them now might be because PJ is deliberately avoiding them or just hasn't considered the idea of going after them.
 

builtbadgers

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Seems to that he has already recruited and coached several 5 stars. His evals are all that matter.
 

noamfromm

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Big Ten Teams by 5* offers (30 total 5*)

Michigan --- 22
Ohio State --- 20
Penn State --- 20
Nebraska --- 17
Maryland ---12
Indiana --- 8
Purdue --- 8
Rutgers --- 8
Michigan State --- 8
Northwestern --- 5
Minnesota --- 4
Illinois --- 3
Iowa --- 3
Wisconsin --- 3
 

MplsGopher

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Big Ten Teams by 5* offers (30 total 5*)

Michigan --- 22
Ohio State --- 20
Penn State --- 20
Nebraska --- 17
Maryland ---12
Indiana --- 8
Purdue --- 8
Rutgers --- 8
Michigan State --- 8
Northwestern --- 5
Minnesota --- 4
Illinois --- 3
Iowa --- 3
Wisconsin --- 3
Nebraska LOOOLLLLL

What 5* would go to that shit football program? Not even 4* kids from Omaha will go there.
 

btowngopher

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Big Ten Teams by 5* offers (30 total 5*)

Michigan --- 22
Ohio State --- 20
Penn State --- 20
Nebraska --- 17
Maryland ---12
Indiana --- 8
Purdue --- 8
Rutgers --- 8
Michigan State --- 8
Northwestern --- 5
Minnesota --- 4
Illinois --- 3
Iowa --- 3
Wisconsin --- 3
Also do we really know how reliable 247 is at reporting these offers? It’s not like Fleck has to notify them when he offers someone.
 

noamfromm

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Also do we really know how reliable 247 is at reporting these offers? It’s not like Fleck has to notify them when he offers someone.
That is a fair point, but I don't think that there are too many recruits (especially the 5* variety) who do not tweet out their offers.
 

Deleted_User

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His two star players were routinely some of our best players. Cedric Thomson, Derrick Wells, Josh Campion, Theiren Cockran, Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Eric Murray, Isaac Fruechte, and Ben Lauer.
You don't say. Not a great list.
 

Polski

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As long as we're talking dollars, look at it through lens of: How much is a "5-star" head coach is worth to a university? Millions upon millions?

And how much does a "2-star" head coach cost his school?
 

Ron Johnson Super Fan

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By that logic non-revenue athletes should not only not get scholarships, they should have to pay to participate in athletics.
If we start paying football and basketball players that’s the way it’s going to have to go. It’s not like athletic departments are operating on huge budget surpluses. The money made of revenue sports supports non revenue sports. Not saying that changes whether football or basketball players should be compensated but that’s going to be part of the deal.
 

Crosby

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This thread is beautiful. So far we have:

1) 5* players generate more successful football teams, which generate more revenue. Now that is hard-hitting analysis.
2) Minnesota hasn't landed any 5* recruits and it sure would be nice to get some. Ummm... Yes.
3) PJ is avoiding 5* recruits. Hmmm.
4) Not only is PJ avoiding 5* recruits, he is doing it because he wants to prove something. LMAO.

So in summary, if PJ stopped trying to prove a point, stopped ignoring 5* players, offered a bunch of them, then MN would be more successful and we'd make more money.

Got it. Someone should call PJ and let him know.
 

Some guy

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I agree in that there are certainly variables that simply cannot be controlled and therefore you cannot apply equally to each school.
100%
If for 1 year Ohio State took nothing but 2 star players and for 1 year 5 5-star players went to G5 schools, then entire “study” would have completely different numbers
 

MplsGopher

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100%
If for 1 year Ohio State took nothing but 2 star players and for 1 year 5 5-star players went to G5 schools, then entire “study” would have completely different numbers
Would the actual revenue that comes into Ohio State and those G5 schools be much different, in your scenario?

I think we can mostly agree the answer is no.
 

Some guy

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Would the actual revenue that comes into Ohio State and those G5 schools be much different, in your scenario?

I think we can mostly agree the answer is no.
That’s the point.
People go to games to see Ohio State.
If the Bosa twins didn’t go to Ohio State and some other 2-4 star was playing instead...the stadium would still be packed.

There is a reason all the duke and Arizona basketball games will be sold out yet the G league team that gets the top prospect will still be playing in front of mostly empty arena.

the brands of universities sell tickets more than individual athletes do
 
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