Field of 68 Projection

SelectionSunday

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Projections are for games played through Dec. 12. Future results are not projected. Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

An * denotes conference leader or, if a tie, team with best NET.

FIELD OF 68 (through Dec. 12)
America East (1): Vermont (110)

American (3): *Houston (11), Cincinnati (24), UCF (60)

ACC (8): *Virginia (1), Duke (2), North Carolina (16), NC State (18), Louisville (20), Virginia Tech (23), Syracuse (29), Florida State (30)

Atlantic Sun (1): Liberty (36)

Atlantic 10 (1): VCU (59)

Big East (5): *Marquette (22), Saint John's (27), Villanova (34), Butler (43), Creighton (58)

Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (89)

Big South (1): Radford (83)

Big Ten (10): *Michigan (3), Michigan State (9), Wisconsin (12), Ohio State (14), Nebraska (15), Indiana (19), Purdue (28), Maryland (41), Iowa (45), Minnesota (56)

Big XII (6): *Texas Tech (4), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (17), Iowa State (31), TCU (54), Texas (75)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (100)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (103)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (51)

Horizon (1): IUPUI (142)

Ivy (1): Penn (71)

MAAC (1): Rider (165)

MAC (1): Buffalo (13)

MEAC (1): Howard (224)

Missouri Valley (1): Southern Illinois (94)

Mountain West (2): *Nevada (8), Utah State (32)

Northeast (1): Saint Francis-NY (189)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (38)

Pac 12 (4): *Arizona State (25), UCLA (33), Arizona (37), Washington (47)

Patriot (1): Colgate (137)

SEC (5): *Tennessee (5), Auburn (10), Mississippi State (26), LSU (40), Arkansas (61)

Southern (1): Furman (35)

Southland (1): Abilene Christian (143)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (163)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (129)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (79)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (7), San Francisco (21)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (86)
______________________________

Last 4 In: Utah State (32), LSU (40), Creighton (58), UCF (60)

First 4 Out: Oregon (44), Ole Miss (52), Saint Louis (73), Seton Hall (85)

10 to Watch: Kentucky (39), Kansas State (42), Colorado (46), Loyola Marymount (53), Belmont (57), San Diego (62), Georgetown (64), Toledo (77), Temple (80), Alabama (92)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): San Francisco (21), Cincinnati (24), Utah State (32), UCF (60)
 
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I always appreciate the effort, so thank you. I would love to hear your argument of why Minnesota would get in over Kentucky. I can't imagine a world where they don't get in over quite a few teams, let alone Minnesota.
 

fmlizard

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Yeah in this scenario Gophers might be Last 4 In. NET's pretty iffy on the Gophers, Texas, Arkansas, etc. But the number of P5 wins in the can already suggests the Gophers would be in today.

Of course, the Big Ten season will decide it all.
 

SelectionSunday

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I always appreciate the effort, so thank you. I would love to hear your argument of why Minnesota would get in over Kentucky. I can't imagine a world where they don't get in over quite a few teams, let alone Minnesota.
Regarding Gophers vs. Kentucky, specifically, Gophers have wins over Nebraska (home) and Washington (neutral court), both strong at-large candidates at this early juncture. Kentucky’s best wins are NC-Greensboro and Southern Illinois, both in Lexington.

Honestly, though, with so little data, it’s more about how UK has looked. They’ve been mostly unimpressive. I suspect Calipari and the Wildcats will figure things out, but they have looked nothing like a tournament team. I’m not an “eye test” kind of a guy, but for projections this early in the season some of that comes into play. (that’s why I have San Francisco in the field, even though they haven’t beaten anybody; been really impressed when I’ve seen Dons)

I appreciate the question, one I was kind of expecting!
 
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bizzle22

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One team I'm keeping an eye on leading into B1G play is Purdue. They've played a tough non-conference schedule, but their problem is they haven't really won any of the high-end games. Best non-conference win is Davidson on a neutral floor. None of their remaining non-conference games are gimmes either, especially vs Notre Dame in Indy and Belmont at home. If they lose one or both of those they may need to do some real damage in B1G play to make up for it.

All of the computer rankings are very high on them, so I definitely see why they are in the field right now, but they need to be careful.

I don't see the B1G ending up with ten bids, and even 9 might be a stretch. Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska, and the Gophers are going to be fighting for 2-3 spots IMO. Might put Northwestern into that group too if they can beat Oklahoma. Despite being 0-2 in B1G play they gave Indiana all they could handle in Assembly Hall and played Michigan much closer than anyone has all season. Non-conference schedule will be a problem for the Wildcats though.


Outside of the B1G:

Going to be interested in how Pac 12 conference play goes. There are 4-5 teams that could win the league IMO, but all of them have major flaws to the point where I don't feel good about picking any of them.

SEC seems the most likely to add to their bid total. Gotta believe Kentucky will figure it out, at least enough to get in the tournament, though I can't disagree with having them out for now.

Going to be some good late night games from the WCC.
 

SelectionSunday

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One team I'm keeping an eye on leading into B1G play is Purdue. They've played a tough non-conference schedule, but their problem is they haven't really won any of the high-end games. Best non-conference win is Davidson on a neutral floor. None of their remaining non-conference games are gimmes either, especially vs Notre Dame in Indy and Belmont at home. If they lose one or both of those they may need to do some real damage in B1G play to maoke up for it.

All of the computer rankings are very high on them, so I definitely see why they are in the field right now, but they need to be careful.

I don't see the B1G ending up with ten bids, and even 9 might be a stretch. Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska, and the Gophers are going to be fighting for 2-3 spots IMO. Might put Northwestern into that group too if they can beat Oklahoma. Despite being 0-2 in B1G play they gave Indiana all they could handle in Assembly Hall and played Michigan much closer than anyone has all season. Non-conference schedule will be a problem for the Wildcats though.


Outside of the B1G:

Going to be interested in how Pac 12 conference play goes. There are 4-5 teams that could win the league IMO, but all of them have major flaws to the point where I don't feel good about picking any of them.

SEC seems the most likely to add to their bid total. Gotta believe Kentucky will figure it out, at least enough to get in the tournament, though I can't disagree with having them out for now.

Going to be some good late night games from the WCC.
Good stuff.

I agree about Big Ten. I still think 7 or 8 is the number that gets in. 9 possible, but 10 everything would have to fall perfectly. Northwestern definitely a wildcard. Huge game with Oklahoma coming up. Win that one, and they’ll join in the conversation.
 

bizzle22

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I’m no longer certain the Pac12 is a multi bid league
 

gopherguy15

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I’m no longer certain the Pac12 is a multi bid league
I'm guessing they'll get at least two teams in the NCAA tournament, but at this point the ceiling is three, and even that's being generous. Regardless, in all my years of watching college basketball, I've never seen the Pac-12 (or Pac-10) this bad. I watched UCLA get taken out to the woodshed last night by an average (in my opinion) Cincinnati team. Santa Clara just beat USC. Also, Arizona recently lost to Alabama (who's lost to Northeastern and Georgia State) and Baylor (who's lost to Texas Southern, Wichita State, and Stephen F Austin). I saw a stat somewhere that the entire conference only has three top-50 wins. For reference, the Big Ten has almost 30.
 
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