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Go4

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There have been grand re-openings/never closings in 30 plus states. Might one look to their experience? Why MN is the grand failure in this thing is beyond me. We are "smart", healthy and have incredible healthcare. But we're going to peak in July/August when everyone else is near the finish line.. Brilliant.
let's hear old wise one which states are "near the finish line." put it out there. i'm sure your list will be precise and billiant.
 

MplsGopher

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I'm not so sure that is going to be the case. Hope I'm wrong.
Depends what normal is. Until a proven effective vaccine is out and widely distributed, we won't get back close to what normal was last fall.

Looks like a lot of hopes are being pinned on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. Cross your fingers, I guess.

I thought I heard on the news last night that they were hoping to have 1billion doses by the end of 2021. Not 20, but 21. The US has given them over $1billion and wants 300M doses at the front of the line. Supposedly the first doses will arrive in October.

Just in time for the election. :sneaky: All but guarantee it'll be like a million doses, peanuts, and Trump will claim it has been cured. Oh well, lies that like only convince the choir that was going to vote for him no matter what.
 

Go4

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to ogee, on the original post, good thoughts. i hope you are right.

i don't see concerts going back to the way they were any time soon, nor big festivals like the state fair. i do think we'll have fans in some seats for sports.

i worry about the schools but hope for the best.
 

balds

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let's hear old wise one which states are "near the finish line." put it out there. i'm sure your list will be precise and billiant.
States that had peak daily deaths in April and have been trending down since: Every state except MN and PA. (PA peaked on May 5, MN on May 20) Throw a dart at a map and that state is doing/trending better than MN as of today.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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Not quite. The CDC estimates that since 2010 flu-related deaths are estimated to have ranged from 12,000 to 61,000. And that is for a November to April flu season.

I read an article several weeks ago in which a doctor expressed his skepticism about the CDC death estimates for seasonal flu. The CDC numbers are estimates because no one actually tries to keep track of seasonal flu deaths. The doctor thinks the actual numbers are much lower than the CDC estimates.

He had recently sent an email to a number of his colleagues asking them if they had ever had a patient die of seasonal flu. Not one of them could remember even one of their patients dying from the flu. This may be anecdotal, but it's very interesting all the same.



https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/about.html
I'm not only talking about estimated deaths. Look at the reported excess deaths during the 17-18 flu season, at the US and state level. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Covid has been worse for the US as a whole, but the majority of those excess deaths are coming from only a few states, mostly in the northeast. Other states have had fewer excess COVID deaths than 17-18 flu deaths. Most of those excess flu deaths came in a 6-7 week period, and not over several months.

Screen Shot 2020-05-22 at 8.37.51 AM.pngScreen Shot 2020-05-22 at 8.37.35 AM.pngScreen Shot 2020-05-22 at 8.37.18 AM.png

And like I mentioned, that's a bad flu WITH a vaccine. People thinking COVID death will magically go away with a vaccine is 'happy talk'.
 
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MplsGopher

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States that had peak daily deaths in April and have been trending down since: Every state except MN and PA. (PA peaked on May 5, MN on May 20) Throw a dart at a map and that state is doing/trending better than MN as of today.
Much better to get most of your deaths, including extra deaths that could've been avoided with flattening, out of the way quickly? Why? It won't help economically.
 

MplsGopher

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I'm not only talking about estimated deaths. Look at the reported excess deaths during the 17-18 flu season, at the US and state level. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Covid has been worse for the US as a whole, but the majority of those excess deaths are coming from only a few states, mostly in the northeast. Other states have had fewer excess COVID deaths than 17-18 flu deaths. Most of those excess flu deaths came in a 6-7 week period, and not over several months.

View attachment 8107View attachment 8108View attachment 8109
Hence why we've been on a temporary lockdown, that is gradually being lifted, and will be mostly off at some point later in the summer!

Thanks for proving the point!
 

Go4

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States that had peak daily deaths in April and have been trending down since: Every state except MN and PA. (PA peaked on May 5, MN on May 20) Throw a dart at a map and that state is doing/trending better than MN as of today.
you didn't answer the question, not surprisingly. brilliant.
 

Section2

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Cnc must not have seen this thread yet. He knows exactly what’s going to happen, so I can’t wait to read his predictions.
 

balds

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Much better to get most of your deaths, including extra deaths that could've been avoided with flattening, out of the way quickly? Why? It won't help economically.
If that's true, MN is in trouble. 37th in deaths per capita and we're saving our best for last?
 

MplsGopher

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Do I really need to type out 48 states?
You just said 37th ... hmmm .... beginning to wonder if you have a clue what you're talking about.

Now granted, you yourself haven't done jack squat of research. You're just parroting what you've seen other people on Fox News, Twitter, etc. say and are assuming/hoping it is correct.
 

balds

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You just said 37th ... hmmm .... beginning to wonder if you have a clue what you're talking about.

Now granted, you yourself haven't done jack squat of research. You're just parroting what you've seen other people on Fox News, Twitter, etc. say and are assuming/hoping it is correct.
Not assuming anything. 37th in deaths per capita, with our ridiculous "orders". Pick a state, any state, and let me know when their peak daily deaths occurred. Pick a state, any state and let me know if their daily deaths are going up or down.
 

balds

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my bad. didn't realize you were actually predicting 48 states are near the finish line.
Finish line is the wrong term. We're in a tough spot and NOTHING will change that. MN's response has beed abysmal. I'm not predicting anything, simply pointing out that everyone else has had peak deaths and trending down, except us.
 

Go4

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Finish line is the wrong term. We're in a tough spot and NOTHING will change that. MN's response has beed abysmal. I'm not predicting anything, simply pointing out that everyone else has had peak deaths and trending down, except us.
so you've dramatically changed your prediction. brilliant.
 

Winnipegopher

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Some thoughts.
Sports will happen but fans will kept our or severely limited. NHL and NBA will start by mid June. MLB will play a short season. NFL and NCAA will also play with limited fans (although there may be variation- some teams full attendance, others none). Any major outbreak and a new lockdown begins.

Stock market will eventually tank. I am completely liquid right now (and lost a fair bit in doing that) but can't see the market holding up. I sold out as I see the worst case as catastrophic (loss of 50-75%) while best case seemed to be the former status quo. Hope I am wrong.

US election will be the real wildcard. No idea what will happen with voting.
 

RememberMurray

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Finish line is the wrong term. We're in a tough spot and NOTHING will change that. MN's response has beed abysmal. I'm not predicting anything, simply pointing out that everyone else has had peak deaths and trending down, except us.
"The wrong term"?

Then why did you use it in Post #28? It's your term, balds.
 

mjfelton15

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If we don’t get to attend Gopher games, I better get a damn refund. I’m not paying $890 to watch from my house.
 

balds

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"The wrong term"?

Then why did you use it in Post #28? It's your term, balds.
Because I'm human and make mistakes. Deaths trending down for weeks isn't a finish line, but it's what nearly every other state has done, except MN. Not a prediction, a fact.
 

balds

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Not assuming anything. 37th in deaths per capita, with our ridiculous "orders". Pick a state, any state, and let me know when their peak daily deaths occurred. Pick a state, any state and let me know if their daily deaths are going up or down.
Prove me wrong. I've read the insults. PROVE ME WRONG!
 
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Bad Gopher

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Answering the OP, a few things for starters:

If 5% of people wearing masks by Labor Day is the over/under, I've got the over, and I'd put big money on that.

I don't see what "optimism" has to do with the percentage of people wearing masks. If it does, then I'm going to be optimistic that people are going to have the common sense and stick-to-it-ness to continue to do what's necessary to slow this thing down as long as it takes, and 'as long as it takes' is going to be way longer than three months.

I like people's resilience and adaptability. That's why the species has gotten this far. I don't mind that the sports leagues are trying to have seasons or continue seasons. We need our recreations. I just hope they don't make too much of jokes out of their sports. We don't need clown shows. But the larger point is that people are going to continue to try and normalize things within reason, and that's awesome and as it should be.
 

MplsGopher

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Some thoughts.
Sports will happen but fans will kept our or severely limited. NHL and NBA will start by mid June. MLB will play a short season. NFL and NCAA will also play with limited fans (although there may be variation- some teams full attendance, others none). Any major outbreak and a new lockdown begins.

Stock market will eventually tank. I am completely liquid right now (and lost a fair bit in doing that) but can't see the market holding up. I sold out as I see the worst case as catastrophic (loss of 50-75%) while best case seemed to be the former status quo. Hope I am wrong.

US election will be the real wildcard. No idea what will happen with voting.
I don't think so. I see no reason for it. If it was going to tank, it would have by now.

It would take a major, major negative turn of events (lethal virus mutation) to have another crash. I just can't see any type of bad news to that level, that would send people back into that panic selling state.

If I was your advisor, I would be telling you to get back in at the best discount you can, ie right now.
 

MplsGopher

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Answering the OP, a few things for starters:

If 5% of people wearing masks by Labor Day is the over/under, I've got the over, and I'd put big money on that.

I don't see what "optimism" has to do with the percentage of people wearing masks. If it does, then I'm going to be optimistic that people are going to have the common sense and stick-to-it-ness to continue to do what's necessary to slow this thing down as long as it takes, and 'as long as it takes' is going to be way longer than three months.

I like people's resilience and adaptability. That's why the species has gotten this far. I don't mind that the sports leagues are trying to have seasons or continue seasons. We need our recreations. I just hope they don't make too much of jokes out of their sports. We don't need clown shows. But the larger point is that people are going to continue to try and normalize things within reason, and that's awesome and as it should be.
Here's the thing, and this has always been the case: the crazy people are in the statistical niche.

The problem is, and this has also always been the case: the crazies get the airtime.


When 0.0001% of the population marches on capitols, that gets 90% of the airtime. It lets those people have a farrrrrrrrrr more outsized voice, than they deserve based on their numbers.


Most people, aren't crazy. Most people, aren't willing to die, as a protest to their "rights" being violated. Most people, will wear masks.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe

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Answering the OP, a few things for starters:

If 5% of people wearing masks by Labor Day is the over/under, I've got the over, and I'd put big money on that.

I don't see what "optimism" has to do with the percentage of people wearing masks. If it does, then I'm going to be optimistic that people are going to have the common sense and stick-to-it-ness to continue to do what's necessary to slow this thing down as long as it takes, and 'as long as it takes' is going to be way longer than three months.

I like people's resilience and adaptability. That's why the species has gotten this far. I don't mind that the sports leagues are trying to have seasons or continue seasons. We need our recreations. I just hope they don't make too much of jokes out of their sports. We don't need clown shows. But the larger point is that people are going to continue to try and normalize things within reason, and that's awesome and as it should be.
I don't disagree with much of what you're saying here, just some additional clarification I guess. My guess on the masks has as much to do with how comfortable people will grow over the coming months as it has to do with the advancements I think we'll see in that time period. We are literally seeing almost every week a new/different drug that proves to be extremely effective in battling the symptoms of the virus. And just because the typical "norm" for a vaccine for anything has been 12-18 months, I wouldn't rule out major advancements in this area in the next 3-6 months. At some point, we'll be going much more on the offense against this virus than what has up to this point been being on the defensive and reacting instead of being proactive.

In the end, how the media wants to spin this will go a long ways towards shaping what people think is acceptable behavior and what is not. We kind of see that already.

We're also learning more and more about the virus all the time. A few days ago it comes out that it may very well not be transmitted on certain surfaces nearly as much as was originally thought. What if we find out 2-4 weeks from now that masks do even less than we thought?

My overlying point is, it's still May. This thing is going to look DRAMATICALLY different in 3 months than it does now. In just the last week or two, it's obviously clear some of the doomsday scenarios that were being predicted just a month or so ago are just plain wrong. I have faith in the thousands of people all over the world who are working to mitigate the effects of this.
 

RememberMurray

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I don't disagree with much of what you're saying here, just some additional clarification I guess. My guess on the masks has as much to do with how comfortable people will grow over the coming months as it has to do with the advancements I think we'll see in that time period. We are literally seeing almost every week a new/different drug that proves to be extremely effective in battling the symptoms of the virus. And just because the typical "norm" for a vaccine for anything has been 12-18 months, I wouldn't rule out major advancements in this area in the next 3-6 months. At some point, we'll be going much more on the offense against this virus than what has up to this point been being on the defensive and reacting instead of being proactive.

In the end, how the media wants to spin this will go a long ways towards shaping what people think is acceptable behavior and what is not. We kind of see that already.

We're also learning more and more about the virus all the time. A few days ago it comes out that it may very well not be transmitted on certain surfaces nearly as much as was originally thought. What if we find out 2-4 weeks from now that masks do even less than we thought?

My overlying point is, it's still May. This thing is going to look DRAMATICALLY different in 3 months than it does now. In just the last week or two, it's obviously clear some of the doomsday scenarios that were being predicted just a month or so ago are just plain wrong. I have faith in the thousands of people all over the world who are working to mitigate the effects of this.
I like and admire your optimism, and I fervently hope it is warranted. But I'm scratching my head over the two bolded parts.

— How is the media "spinning" the situation (specific examples)? What do you feel their purpose is in doing so?

— Which (specific) scenarios do you feel were "doomsday" ones? How off-base were those specific scenarios? We'll hit 100,000 deaths in the U.S. pretty soon, possibly by the end of next week.
 

Bad Gopher

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I like and admire your optimism, and I fervently hope it is warranted. But I'm scratching my head over the two bolded parts.

— How is the media "spinning" the situation (specific examples)? What do you feel their purpose is in doing so?

— Which (specific) scenarios do you feel were "doomsday" ones? How off-base were those specific scenarios? We'll hit 100,000 deaths in the U.S. pretty soon, possibly by the end of next week.
If the media is spinning or distorting this in any way, it's been giving way too much airtime to a fringe minority of dissenters as well as legitimacy to crackpots and their theories. A Star Tribune poll that just came out a short time ago shows the public in strong support of the safety restrictions. That's the silent majority here.
 

RememberMurray

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If the media is spinning or distorting this in any way, it's been giving way too much airtime to a fringe minority of dissenters as well as legitimacy to crackpots and their theories. A Star Tribune poll that just came out a short time ago shows the public in strong support of the safety restrictions. That's the silent majority here.
I agree.

If anything, the gun-toting crazies on the fringe — a tiny, tiny minority — get far too much screen time.

I've had conversations with many people, representing a pretty wide political spectrum. Some folks tend to put a lot of emphasis on the economic impact of the stay at home orders, which is perfectly understandable. I've asked those people — who focus mainly on the financials — if they want to see everything opened up immediately. They almost always pause, then say, "Well, no... not right away".
 
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Costa Rican Gopher

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to ogee, on the original post, good thoughts. i hope you are right.

i don't see concerts going back to the way they were any time soon, nor big festivals like the state fair. i do think we'll have fans in some seats for sports.

i worry about the schools but hope for the best.
What's the likelihood of healthy children getting seriously ill or dying? 0.000000001?
 
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