Chip: When (not if) Gophers test COVID-19-positive, time to listen to doctors and not loudest voices

BleedGopher

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per Chip:


Gophers football players returned to campus last week, soon to be joined by basketball players and then athletes from other sports in a gradual reopening of Athletes Village.

Based on what has transpired at schools that allowed athletes to return sooner than the U did, one outcome is certain: It’s a matter of when, not if, a Gophers athlete tests positive for COVID-19.

As one university official asked privately: How much would be too much? In other words, how many positive tests would cause leaders to rethink the timeline? Five? Ten? More than that?

This is the question schools must navigate. Like every other university, the Gophers crafted a detailed plan in an attempt to create a safe-as-possible environment. But no amount of health measures and protocols can eliminate risk entirely.

The Gophers have 675 athletes. There will not be 675 negative tests. Athletic department officials aren’t naive about that. They have response plans for that inevitability.


Go Gophers!!
 

Plato

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I believe it was five positive tests in Phillies players that just led to spring training in AZ and FL to be shut down.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Ok, traveling back and forth to to campus. Take your pick. Can anyone quote the absolute risk to an 18-22 year old healthy individual?
 

Pompous Elitist

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Chip does have a good point in that the media and some others will be besides themselves when clusters pop up at the school (and they will). Will leadership panic and shut down immediately, or lead a discussion on the realities of the virus, the relative risk vs normal times and activities, and accommodations and protective measures for the vulnerable students and employees.
 

short ornery norwegian

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I don't think anyone is arguing that players are going to wind up in ICU or dead if they test positive.

The issue is whether a player tests positive and then transmits the virus to someone else - maybe a parent, a coach, or a relative with a pre-existing condition.

The truth is in the middle - not on either extreme.

It's not a case of "everyone is going to die" or "no one is going to die."

The truth is that some people who become infected will get sick. Some will get really sick, and a small percentage will die.

And sports teams/leagues have to weigh the level of risk in resuming play.

How many infections - how many people hospitalized - and how many potentials deaths are you willing to chalk up to the cost of doing business?

Remember the media climate we live in.

Imagine headline - "Player X's Grandmother dies of covid-19. Relatives blame Gophers for resuming season during a pandemic."

it's easy to say "go ahead and play" when you have no stake in the situation. College Presidents and AD's are going to be a lot more careful about how these decisions are made.
 

Pompous Elitist

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It’s probably good to have a baseline awareness of causes of death by age group. This is a bit dated but largely still true. COVID-19 is much worse than the seasonal flu and will be a top 5 cause of death in 65+ but the age distributions hold true and despite PIMS initial numbers indicate it may be less risky for young children.

Second graph CDC data on COVID deaths, pneumonia deaths, influenza deaths as of June 17, 2020. Legend for x axis is available at link.



12181D6C-0AAD-417F-A470-A0A6B9F0A030.jpeg
9AB13BBA-0E89-48B3-977D-ECDF5FDB6164.jpeg
 

PitinoFan

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I don't think anyone is arguing that players are going to wind up in ICU or dead if they test positive.

The issue is whether a player tests positive and then transmits the virus to someone else - maybe a parent, a coach, or a relative with a pre-existing condition.

The truth is in the middle - not on either extreme.

It's not a case of "everyone is going to die" or "no one is going to die."

The truth is that some people who become infected will get sick. Some will get really sick, and a small percentage will die.

And sports teams/leagues have to weigh the level of risk in resuming play.

How many infections - how many people hospitalized - and how many potentials deaths are you willing to chalk up to the cost of doing business?

Remember the media climate we live in.

Imagine headline - "Player X's Grandmother dies of covid-19. Relatives blame Gophers for resuming season during a pandemic."

it's easy to say "go ahead and play" when you have no stake in the situation. College Presidents and AD's are going to be a lot more careful about how these decisions are made.
Player X could give Covid to grandma whether they play football, or not. Keep grandma away. As for the coaches, come up with some ways to keep them safe. I’m assuming you know how the virus spreads by now. Granted, not everyone practices social distancing consistently, but those who don’t will probably get it eventually anyway.
 

Pompous Elitist

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.Remember the media climate we live in.
This is the crux of the matter IMO. We are now in a bizarro world where legal, public health, economic issues are decided based on a minority of public opinion, politics, and irrational fear. Perception is reality. The Orwellian part is so much of it is NOT science based because the science is still coming in or suggests something altogether different than what is being spread (virally) on mass and social media.
 

Go4Broke

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I just cannot take much more of this... it is insanity. A few years down the line there will be books and movies about this boondoggle on society.
Your dead wrong, Vandy. A few years down the line this is how Covid-19 will be written about and portrayed in books and movies:

In countries keeping the coronavirus at bay, experts watch U.S. case numbers with alarm

As coronavirus cases surge in states across the South and West of the United States, health experts in countries with falling case numbers are watching with a growing sense of alarm and disbelief, with many wondering why virus-stricken U.S. states continue to reopen and why the advice of scientists is often ignored.

It really does feel like the U.S. has given up,” said Siouxsie Wiles, an infectious-diseases specialist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand a country that has confirmed only three new cases over the last three weeks and where citizens have now largely returned to their pre-coronavirus routines. “I can’t imagine what it must be like having to go to work knowing it’s unsafe,” Wiles said of the U.S.-wide economic reopening. “It’s hard to see how this ends. There are just going to be more and more people infected, and more and more deaths. It’s heartbreaking.”

Commentators and experts in Europe, where cases have continued to decline, voiced concerns over the state of the U.S. response. A headline on the website of Germany’s public broadcaster read: “Has the U.S. given up its fight against coronavirus?” Switzerland’s conservative Neue Zürcher Zeitung newspaper concluded, “U.S. increasingly accepts rising covid-19 numbers.”





Whereas the U.S. response to the crisis has at times appeared disconnected from American scientists’ publicly available findings, U.S. researchers’ conclusions informed the actions of foreign governments. “A large portion of [Germany’s] measures that proved effective was based on studies by leading U.S. research institutes,” said Karl Lauterbach, a Harvard-educated epidemiologist who is a member of the German parliament for the Social Democrats, who are part of the coalition government.

Regarding the effectiveness of face masks, Lauterbach added, “we almost entirely relied on U.S. studies.” Germany was among the first major European countries to make face masks mandatory on public transport and in supermarkets.

European researchers dispute that the U.S. government’s reliance on scientists to inform decision-making comes anywhere near the degree to which many European policymakers have relied on researchers. After consulting U.S. research and German studies, for instance, German leaders agreed to make reopening dependent on case numbers, meaning restrictions snap back or reopening gets put on hold if the case numbers in a given region exceed a certain threshold.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-case-numbers-with-alarm/ar-BB15HYrB#image=2
 

MplsGopher

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This is the crux of the matter IMO. We are now in a bizarro world where legal, public health, economic issues are decided based on a minority of public opinion, politics, and irrational fear. Perception is reality. The Orwellian part is so much of it is NOT science based because the science is still coming in or suggests something altogether different than what is being spread (virally) on mass and social media.
Fake post.

Maybe one day, someone will listen to you on this conspiracy theory.
 

tjgopher

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The problem in simply "listening to the doctors" is they really don't have the answers either.

Almost every model has been terribly off-base, leading to some guidelines that ended up doing more harm than good. Many of the data points have been tainted by political and emotional motivations rather than simply inputting the science.

Some well-respected doctors are saying masks don't help, others are saying we should require wearing masks at all times; some well-respected doctors are saying this virus cannot be transmitted outdoors, others are saying it can. Some well-respected doctors say based on science we should be closing things down, others are saying based on data we need to move forward with opening things up.

So, the question for Chip is -- to which doctors should we choose to listen?
 

MplsGopher

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The problem in simply "listening to the doctors" is they really don't have the answers either.

Almost every model has been terribly off-base, leading to some guidelines that ended up doing more harm than good. Many of the data points have been tainted by political and emotional motivations rather than simply inputting the science.

Some well-respected doctors are saying masks don't help, others are saying we should require wearing masks at all times; some well-respected doctors are saying this virus cannot be transmitted outdoors, others are saying it can. Some well-respected doctors say based on science we should be closing things down, others are saying based on data we need to move forward with opening things up.

So, the question for Chip is -- to which doctors should we choose to listen?
Hahahaha. "Well respected" doctors saying don't wear masks. That's funny.

Are they telling you to eat grass fed bone broth, on Alex Jones' radio show?
 

Mulligan

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The problem in simply "listening to the doctors" is they really don't have the answers either.

Almost every model has been terribly off-base, leading to some guidelines that ended up doing more harm than good. Many of the data points have been tainted by political and emotional motivations rather than simply inputting the science.

Some well-respected doctors are saying masks don't help, others are saying we should require wearing masks at all times; some well-respected doctors are saying this virus cannot be transmitted outdoors, others are saying it can. Some well-respected doctors say based on science we should be closing things down, others are saying based on data we need to move forward with opening things up.

So, the question for Chip is -- to which doctors should we choose to listen?
I imagine the irony of you claiming politics and emotions tainting the science is pretty much lost on you. BTW, would you name some of your "well-respected doctors" please?
 

short ornery norwegian

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Slightly off-point but the Executive Director of the MN State High School League was interviewed recently about the prospects for Fall Sports.

to summarize: the MSHSL is dividing sports into three categories: low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk. (in terms of covid-19 concerns)

Cross-Country is low risk. Volleyball is medium risk. Football is High Risk.

And the kicker - the head of the State HS League said that, depending on what's happening with the virus, there is a possibility that high-risk sports may be limited to "training and practice only."

In other words - potentially no HS football games this Fall in MN.

He also said the MSHSL will "follow the guidance of the State Dept of Health and the State Dept of Education."
 

Pompous Elitist

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I’m fairly certain that if you take away the opportunities that football provides these kids, they’ll be more likely to die from some other cause than Covid.
Yep, unknown unintended consequences. How many lives (and their physical and mental health) are positively affected by social activities and sports?
 

Pompous Elitist

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Slightly off-point but the Executive Director of the MN State High School League was interviewed recently about the prospects for Fall Sports.

to summarize: the MSHSL is dividing sports into three categories: low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk. (in terms of covid-19 concerns)

Cross-Country is low risk. Volleyball is medium risk. Football is High Risk.

And the kicker - the head of the State HS League said that, depending on what's happening with the virus, there is a possibility that high-risk sports may be limited to "training and practice only."

In other words - potentially no HS football games this Fall in MN.

He also said the MSHSL will "follow the guidance of the State Dept of Health and the State Dept of Education."
High risk for what is the question? What are the numbers of high schoolers that are hospitalized from COVID, long term sequelae, dead. The story above is an example of belief inertia despite confrontation with new evidence. Difficulty changing strongly held beliefs particularly when fear based is common with all of us. It’s also the sticky aspect of many anxiety disorders.

I’m a bit concerned Stefan “model has good bones” Gildemeister MA at state dept is being consulted on this...

Nice pun SON.
 

PitinoFan

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Yep, unknown unintended consequences. How many lives (and their physical and mental health) are positively affected by social activities and sports?
Right.

Hanging around friends back home vs. hanging around PJ, the rest of the staff, and teammates. What could go wrong?

If they don’t play the season, it’s hard for me to imagine some football programs not folding, not to mention non-revenue sports being cut from many of the larger schools, including Minnesota.
 
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Right.

Hanging around friends back home vs. hanging around PJ, the rest of the staff, and teammates. What could go wrong?

If they don’t play the season, it’s hard for me to imagine some football programs not folding, not to mention non-revenue sports being cut from many of the larger schools, including Minnesota.
What’s so bad about hanging around friends back home?
 

hungan1

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Your dead wrong, Vandy. A few years down the line this is how Covid-19 will be written about and portrayed in books and movies:

In countries keeping the coronavirus at bay, experts watch U.S. case numbers with alarm

As coronavirus cases surge in states across the South and West of the United States, health experts in countries with falling case numbers are watching with a growing sense of alarm and disbelief, with many wondering why virus-stricken U.S. states continue to reopen and why the advice of scientists is often ignored.

It really does feel like the U.S. has given up,” said Siouxsie Wiles, an infectious-diseases specialist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand a country that has confirmed only three new cases over the last three weeks and where citizens have now largely returned to their pre-coronavirus routines. “I can’t imagine what it must be like having to go to work knowing it’s unsafe,” Wiles said of the U.S.-wide economic reopening. “It’s hard to see how this ends. There are just going to be more and more people infected, and more and more deaths. It’s heartbreaking.”

Commentators and experts in Europe, where cases have continued to decline, voiced concerns over the state of the U.S. response. A headline on the website of Germany’s public broadcaster read: “Has the U.S. given up its fight against coronavirus?” Switzerland’s conservative Neue Zürcher Zeitung newspaper concluded, “U.S. increasingly accepts rising covid-19 numbers.”





Whereas the U.S. response to the crisis has at times appeared disconnected from American scientists’ publicly available findings, U.S. researchers’ conclusions informed the actions of foreign governments. “A large portion of [Germany’s] measures that proved effective was based on studies by leading U.S. research institutes,” said Karl Lauterbach, a Harvard-educated epidemiologist who is a member of the German parliament for the Social Democrats, who are part of the coalition government.

Regarding the effectiveness of face masks, Lauterbach added, “we almost entirely relied on U.S. studies.” Germany was among the first major European countries to make face masks mandatory on public transport and in supermarkets.

European researchers dispute that the U.S. government’s reliance on scientists to inform decision-making comes anywhere near the degree to which many European policymakers have relied on researchers. After consulting U.S. research and German studies, for instance, German leaders agreed to make reopening dependent on case numbers, meaning restrictions snap back or reopening gets put on hold if the case numbers in a given region exceed a certain threshold.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-case-numbers-with-alarm/ar-BB15HYrB#image=2
The US Pandemic Team that was dismantled by the current administration stopped the SARS and MERS virus from gaining foothold in the US.

Between the Chinese delaying/lying to tell the world when the first CoVid cases occurred in China, the world has missed an opportunity.
 
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