Bracketology 2019-2020

Ignatius L Hoops

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Creme has (with projected seeding):

2 Maryland
4 Minnesota
6 Indiana
6 Michigan
7 Michigan State
8 Rutgers

First four out: Ohio State, Northwestern
 

CutDownTheNet

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Creme has (with projected seeding):

2 Maryland
4 Minnesota
6 Indiana
6 Michigan
7 Michigan State
8 Rutgers

First four out: Ohio State, Northwestern
Note that (as usual) these are rankings within each of the four hosting locations of 16 teams each. So you can roughly multiply by four to get an estimate of Creme's overall ranking of these teams within the field of 64 ...

~8 Maryland
~16 Minnesota
~24 Indiana
~24 Michigan
~28 Michigan State
~32 Rutgers

~64 Ohio State
~64 Northwestern
 

thatjanelpick

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No one would love to see the Gophers earn the right to host the first rounds of the tourney more than me (which would come with an overall 16 seed) but even this homer thinks that'd be a really big jump for this team.
 
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CutDownTheNet

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No one would love to see the Gophers earn the right to host the first rounds of the tourney (which would come with an overall 16 seed) but even this homer thinks that'd be a really big jump for this team.
Yeah, we’d all love to host a first-round game, but Charlie may be a little too optimistic. For one thing, his numbers are probably accurate to one bit. So ~16 might mean anywhere from #8 to #32. Next, another (also probably inaccurate) estimator, the College Sports Madness Top 44, has the Gophers at #23 (and MSU at #16), so factoring that in, one might guess the Gophers to be closer to #32 than to #8. It’s almost like he flip-flopped the Gophers and the Spartans, relative to CSM pre-season rankings.

What would it take for the Gophers to be ranked #16 by end of season? We’d almost need to win out the non-conf schedule again in spite of a tougher schedule, and so this time get “over-ranked” at about #8 at mid-season instead of last year’s #12. Possible if we beat the Irish, which may be a 50/50 chance. But then we’d need to lose only about 2-3 Big Ten games to “only” get dragged from #8 down to #16 (as opposed to last year, when we got dragged down to the WNIT). Knowing how tough it is to win away games in the B1G, it’s likely we lose more than 3 Big Ten games. So #16 at end of season would be very hard to achieve.

On the other hand, could we start out the NCAA tourney not hosting, but make it to the Sweet Sixteen? I say there’s a positive probability of that happening, if we have all key players healthy. To do that, we might need decent match-ups in the first two rounds.

Probably way too early to talk about tournament time, but what the heck, why not set our goals high. I’m sure the Gopher players do.
 
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thatjanelpick

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Yeah, we’d all love to host a first-round game, but Charlie may be a little too optimistic. For one thing, his numbers are probably accurate to one bit. So ~16 might mean anywhere from #8 to #32. Next, another (also probably inaccurate) estimator, the College Sports Madness Top 44, has the Gophers at #23 (and MSU at #16), so factoring that in, one might guess the Gophers to be closer to #32 than to #8. It’s almost like he flip-flopped the Gophers and the Spartans, relative to CSM pre-season rankings.

What would it take for the Gophers to be ranked #16 by end of season? We’d almost need to win out the non-conf schedule again in spite of a tougher schedule, and so this time get “over-ranked” at about #8 at mid-season instead of last year’s #12. Possible if we beat the Irish, which may be a 50/50 chance. But then we’d need to lose only about 2-3 Big Ten games to “only” get dragged from #8 down to #16 (as opposed to last year, when we got dragged down to the WNIT). Knowing how tough it is to win away games in the B1G, it’s likely we lose more than 3 Big Ten games. So #16 at end of season would be very hard to achieve.

On the other hand, could we start out the NCAA tourney not hosting, but make it to the Sweet Sixteen? I say there’s a positive probability of that happening, if we have all key players healthy. To do that, we might need decent match-ups in the first two rounds.

Probably way too early to talk about tournament time, but what the heck, why not set our goals high. I’m sure the Gopher players do.
My math skills may not be up to snuff, so I apologize if I'm misunderstanding you, but Creme has the Gophers as a 4, meaning either the 13, 14, 15 or 16 overall seed (rather than "anywhere from 8 to 32"), with the matches listed in Minneapolis. (But, again, he is oddly high on the Gophers.) (And, as long as we're reading imaginary tea leaves, it may be worth noting that he has Notre Dame at a very-low-for-them 5 seed, below the Gophers, so I guess he's projecting a Gopher win there? That would certainly boost both an undefeated OOC and the RPI.)
 

CutDownTheNet

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My math skills may not be up to snuff, so I apologize if I'm misunderstanding you, but Creme has the Gophers as a 4, meaning either the 13, 14, 15 or 16 overall seed (rather than "anywhere from 8 to 32"), with the matches listed in Minneapolis. (But, again, he is oddly high on the Gophers.) (And, as long as we're reading imaginary tea leaves, it may be worth noting that he has Notre Dame at a very-low-for-them 5 seed, below the Gophers, so I guess he's projecting a Gopher win there? That would certainly boost both an undefeated OOC and the RPI.)
OK, I was being over-skeptical about the potential accuracy of Creme’s pre-season picks. He is one of the best experts, after all. So let’s (still conservatively) give him credit for 3 significant bits worth of accuracy (not the 1 bit that I glibly threw out there before). In that case, the dice would say that maybe Charlie is spot on (Gophers earn 16th overall seed); or maybe he is overly pessimistic (Gophers get overall seed #12 through #15); or maybe he is overly optimistic about our Gophs (they get overall seed #17 through #20). In 50% of those potential outcomes, the Gophers host Round 1-2 games. So, to the extent that one might believe that Creme’s pre-season estimates might be approximately accurate, one could then conclude that we have about a 50% chance of hosting a Round 1.

As noted, Notre Dame gets a 5 seed in their group, thus an estimated ~20 ranking overall, just a bit worse-off than Minnesota. It was on that basis that I estimated that we have about a 50% chance of beating the Irish on the road. If we do best them, that helps a lot toward realizing at-home first-round playoff games (but we would still have to take care of business in the Big Ten). It might well be that Charlie has us beating Notre Dame. Make it so, team.
 

Ignatius L Hoops

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The big story is that Charlie has 11 B1G teams:

3 Indiana
4 Maryland
6 Michigan
6 Minnesota
7 Michigan State
7 Rutgers
8 Purdue
9 Iowa
10 Northwestern
11 Ohio State
12 Nebraska
 

tripledouble

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Oh, what a cluster the BIG could be. From early season results, it's looking like Maryland might be closer to the field than originally thought. Of the 11 teams Charlie has in today, I'm thinking that Iowa and Nebraska may not be there at the end of the season. Purdue is a bit suspect also, but they have enough veterans where they should be able to make it. Rutgers and Northwestern more formidable than I thought they would be. Indiana looking like they have a slight chance to challenge Maryland. Can't wait until conference play. I'm curious why the BIG has opted not to have some early conference games like they have on the men's side.
 

Ignatius L Hoops

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I'm curious why the BIG has opted not to have some early conference games like they have on the men's side.
Probably because the men play 20 conference games and the women 18. Although there was a time years ago when the women went from 16 to 18 conference games for a couple of years, the women played an early December game.
 

Shades

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Updated Bracketology has lifted SC to a #1 seed. Stanford drops off the top line. Texas joins as a #9 seed. Minnesota remains flat at #6.
 

Shades

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Creme drops Minnesota to a #9 seed in the UConn region.

The UConn part isn’t nearly as scary as past seasons. They’re probably the most undeserving #1 seed, until they can beat someone elite... like Baylor who is coming up on their schedule.
 

Waffle

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Gophers are the last team in on the latest 1/10/20 update.
 

Katogopher

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ASU beating Oregon helps but unless this team goes at least 9-9 in conference and beats a team or 2 above them, I’m afraid it’s WNIT again. Hopefully the players coach Whalen brings in can be competitive in the BIG
 
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