Best/Worse Case Scenarios for CFP by Conference (ESPN)

CurveballJesus

Well-known member
The worldwide leader continues to speak out of both sides of their mouth. They have on air personalities like Rece Davis and David Pollack pounding the table MN that they are legit, while other "journalists" like Heather here continue to trash them. There is 0 chance that a 1 loss Big Ten Champ doesn't make the playoffs.


Big Ten
Best-case scenario: The selection committee considers Minnesota, Penn State and Ohio State. This could happen if Penn State runs the table and beats an undefeated Minnesota team for the Big Ten title. That would mean Ohio State is sitting there with one loss and no title, Minnesota is a one-loss Big Ten runner-up and Penn State would likely be in the top four as a one-loss Big Ten champ. Minnesota, in spite of losing to PSU in the Big Ten title game, would have beaten the Big Ten champs during the regular season -- and Ohio State would not. The Golden Gophers also would have wins against Iowa and Wisconsin. Would that be enough to overcome an otherwise dreadful schedule? What would the committee do with the one-loss Buckeyes?

The Big Ten also could possibly get two teams in if Ohio State and Minnesota are both undefeated and play for the conference championship game, with the committee taking the winner and considering the loser. The difference here, though, is that if Minnesota loses to Ohio State, it couldn't argue that it had a win over the Big Ten champs.

Worst-case scenario: Minnesota finishes as the one-loss Big Ten champ. The selection committee has made it clear that Minnesota's strength of schedule is holding it back. The Golden Gophers beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern -- each by a touchdown or less.

"The conversation is when you're looking at Minnesota, their schedule was a concern, particularly their nonconference schedule; and just as it laid out up through Week 10, they had only played one team in their league that had a winning record," Mullens said. "But the added win against Penn State obviously impressed the committee."


Most realistic scenario: Ohio State runs the table and finishes No. 2 as the league's only legitimate playoff contender. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Buckeyes have an 88.5% chance to make the playoff. ESPN's FPI gives Minnesota less than a 40% chance to beat Iowa and Wisconsin.



https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/gamedaykickoff191114/college-football-playoff-best-worst-most-realistic-conference-scenarios
 

Joe Hardy

Member
ESPN should keep trying. Our resume compared to ‘bama’s. A win over Iowa puts us 4/5. Its time to quit talking about September games. It’s November now, when the games really matter.
 

tmvander

Well-known member
What is honestly so dreadful about our schedule compared to Oregon, Utah, Alabama, and Clemson? I know the SOS numbers don't like us but the argument could be made that Illinois (our second best win) is on par with Clemson and Alabama's best and Oregon and Utah's best.
 

fmlizard

Well-known member
What is honestly so dreadful about our schedule compared to Oregon, Utah, Alabama, and Clemson? I know the SOS numbers don't like us but the argument could be made that Illinois (our second best win) is on par with Clemson and Alabama's best and Oregon and Utah's best.
We knew at the start the Gophers were playing the worst kind of non-con schedule... 3 10+ win good teams from 2018 with no national brand. We're seeing that now. The good news is that Iowa, Wisconsin, and a potential Big Ten title game ought to make the SOS rise rapidly.
 

MNfootballfan

Active member
ESPN should keep trying. Our resume compared to ‘bama’s. A win over Iowa puts us 4/5. Its time to quit talking about September games. It’s November now, when the games really matter.
+1
You are it... it is November, I can hardly wait to see the score of Alabama vs. West Carolina. I sure hope they pass the 'eye test' vs the 3-7 West Carolina Catamounts.

If we finish the regular season with 1 loss, it doesn't matter which metric you use our resume is better than Alabama's.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold

Well-known member
The catch 22, beating Iowa knocks them out of the top 25. It's no longer a "quality" win.
This reminds me of several years ago with the basketballs quality win definition. We split with Iowa. Iowa finished just outside RPI top 50, we finished just inside. Both were bubble teams. I heard the justification being pur lack of top 50 wins. The irony there, is that iowa made it because they beat quality teams like Minnesota, but we were left out because our wins game against weaker teams like Iowa.
 

leib0039

Member
Bama has played the actual worst team in the FBS (NM St) and next week is playing Western Carolina, a team that lost to NC St 41-0 and to Wofford by 52. If anyone tells you they have a better non conference schedule than the Gophers you can dismiss them because they clearly don't know football.

Also a note I heard today that I liked, UGA is ranked 4th because "just great wins" and "Minnesota didn't even play a QB1 for 4 straight weeks" Wouldnt ya know, UGA last 5 weeks Tenn--Backup QB SCar--Backup QB Kent--Moved a WR to QB mid season FLA--Back up QB Mizzou--Back up QB.

So they are using the "SEC" to hide behind the fact that UGA/Bama/Minn are essentially the same, we just havent lost, just giving the big boys the advantage, which has been and always will be the case.
 

tmvander

Well-known member
We knew at the start the Gophers were playing the worst kind of non-con schedule... 3 10+ win good teams from 2018 with no national brand. We're seeing that now. The good news is that Iowa, Wisconsin, and a potential Big Ten title game ought to make the SOS rise rapidly.
Clemson's non conference includes wins over 5-5 Charolette and 6-3 Wofford
Alabama - 4-5 Duke, 0-9 New Mexico St, and 3-7 Western Carolina
Oregon - wins over 6-4 Nevada and a worse FCS team in 8-2 Montana
Utah - 5-4 BYU, 4-6 Northern Illinois, and horrible FCS Idaho St at 3-7

Don't really see the difference between theirs and ours TOO much where it is a huge talking point. Considering that we have 1 (maybe even 2) better wins and no losses
 

BeerFueledFF

Active member
Clemson's non conference includes wins over 5-5 Charolette and 6-3 Wofford
Alabama - 4-5 Duke, 0-9 New Mexico St, and 3-7 Western Carolina
Oregon - wins over 6-4 Nevada and a worse FCS team in 8-2 Montana
Utah - 5-4 BYU, 4-6 Northern Illinois, and horrible FCS Idaho St at 3-7

Don't really see the difference between theirs and ours TOO much where it is a huge talking point. Considering that we have 1 (maybe even 2) better wins and no losses
The issue, which I think is overblown, is we didn't blow out our "weak" non-conference schedule.

If we'd beaten them all by 3 scores no one would give a ****.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold

Well-known member
The common denominator on all of these arguments is that there are various justifications used to justify rating other teams (especially non-helmet schools) worse than SEC schools with worse records, but the powers that be dont apply those same standards to the SEC schools. You are punished for bad losses....unless you are Georgia. You are punished for the absence of quality wins.....unless you are Alabama. You are punished for weak out of conference......unless you are most of the teams in the SEC.
 

gopher56

Member
I really think the issue is strength of Victory over the weaker opponents. at a certain point, I don't think anyone cares if a team is ranked 100 in the FBS or 150. or in the FCS. They are not good teams, you should have blown them out if you are a good team, so now prove you are a good team. The Gophers are not getting the benefit of the doubt i think because of this.
 

Nokomis

Nothing To Say
Best case: the only way I see the B1G getting two teams in the CFP is if OSU loses to PSU and we beat PSU again. Gophers are in as undefeated B1G champs, and OSU is in with one quality loss but didn't play in conference championship game. Kind of like Alabama in 2017.
 

Otis

Well-known member
Best case: the only way I see the B1G getting two teams in the CFP is if OSU loses to PSU and we beat PSU again. Gophers are in as undefeated B1G champs, and OSU is in with one quality loss but didn't play in conference championship game. Kind of like Alabama in 2017.
Why wouldn't this work if Minny beat OSU for their only loss?
 

cemba99

Bruce Smith for Governor
Why wouldn't this work if Minny beat OSU for their only loss?
Someone else pointed out on a similar thread the loser of a conference championship game has never finished in the top 4. One loss teams have made it, and teams that did not qualify for their championship games have made it, but the loser of the championship game has not (at least to date)
 

HoustonTXGopher

Well-known member
The catch 22, beating Iowa knocks them out of the top 25. It's no longer a "quality" win.
I agree with this theory early in the year when all the pundits are guessing who will be good. The AP and Coaches poll mean nothing. Now, once there is a clear body of work and you beat a team ranked by the CFP Committee, the ranking at the time of beating the opponent should be what is counted.
 

Gopherfan1000

New member
I'm pretty Sure Alabama has to play Chattanooga (or a cupcake) before the Auburn game every year if I'm not mistaken? Their resume is on par with Minnesota and they got thrashed by LSU last week...
 

Spoofin

Well-known member
I guess I’m in the minority thinking Alabama is better than us.

I like Gopher fans. We can find ‘disrespect’ almost anywhere - and keep looking until we do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

bleedsmaroonandgold

Well-known member
I guess I’m in the minority thinking Alabama is better than us.

I like Gopher fans. We can find ‘disrespect’ almost anywhere - and keep looking until we do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You can think that, and so do many others. But our on field resume is better than theirs this year. Minnesota has not lost, Bama has. Alabama has beaten no really good teams, MN has. The CFP's got feeling that MN is not as good as Bama shouldn't be what keeps us below them.
 

Plato

Member
It is to to start whining after MN beats IA and WI. Then if tOSU is in the BIG championship game beat them. Then MN will be in the final four. If not then MN got jobbed.
Any other scenario will not get MN as a one or two loss team into the final four.
 

Nokomis

Nothing To Say
Why wouldn't this work if Minny beat OSU for their only loss?
Someone else pointed out on a similar thread the loser of a conference championship game has never finished in the top 4. One loss teams have made it, and teams that did not qualify for their championship games have made it, but the loser of the championship game has not (at least to date)
Right, I just don't see the B1G championship game loser making it -- too late in the season & especially if other teams hold. Now if LSU, Clemson, & Baylor all lose, then maybe. But that would be a major sh-tshow with all those one-loss teams.
 



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