Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
You think Gophers would win 50 out of 100 times, if we played them? That's what 50/50 actually means.

No chance. I could see 10 out of 100.
We only play them twice, not 100 times.

And 50/50 has nothing to do with 100 times. It is a percentage play. 50-percent on each side, no matter how many times.

Literally, by definition from Merriam Webster: "half favorable and half unfavorable"
 

MplsGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
21,379
Reaction score
4,664
Points
113
We only play them twice, not 100 times.

And 50/50 has nothing to do with 100 times. It is a percentage play. 50-percent on each side, no matter how many times.

Literally, by definition from Merriam Webster: "half favorable and half unfavorable"
I grabbed a coin out of the drawer. I flipped it twice. It landed on heads twice. Do you think it's correct to conclude that this coin will land on heads 100% of the time, based on two samples?
 

FullBanana

Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2019
Messages
98
Reaction score
75
Points
18
One would think we would have to win a road game once this year, right? Crazy to think we haven’t won one.
 

Some guy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2014
Messages
8,746
Reaction score
1,817
Points
113
The Gophers must win one of the two games this week (@IU, Illinois) or they are done, IMO.
Not at all.

maybe losing both means they don’t take care of business in others...
But objectively, 16 wins is a lock...
15 is a maybe
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
51,084
Reaction score
8,500
Points
113
Not at all.

maybe losing both means they don’t take care of business in others...
But objectively, 16 wins is a lock...
15 is a maybe
15 doesn't get it done. And I just don't see them reeling off 3 wins in a row when one is a road game and another is a solid Rutgers team.
 

tmvander

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Messages
1,855
Reaction score
869
Points
113
15 could be enough still...there won't be a lot of teams around the bubble that have as many quality wins as we will have. They may have a better quantity and have a few road wins but nobody is going to have 3 top 10 NET wins along with potentially 2 other Quad 1's.
 

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
15 doesn't get it done. And I just don't see them reeling off 3 wins in a row when one is a road game and another is a solid Rutgers team.
15 quite likely gets it done. Who do you think the Gophers are going to be compared to?

They will be compared to Utah State, Colorado State, Boise State, Penn State, San Diego State, Western Kentucky, St. Louis, St. Bonaventure, BYU, VCU, Drake, Furman and others. Minnesota will have five wins better than many of those teams' best wins.

And, if things continue as they are and Michigan/Ohio State each get #1 seeds, then the Gophers will have double-digit wins over TWO #1 seeds in the tourney. No one can say that.

Currently, Minnesota holds wins over NET RANKING #3, #7, #8, #27, and #32. The Gophers have almost no chance for a bad loss (even losing at home to NW would be only be a Quad 3 loss, which isn't devastating.)

And, assuming they get to 15 wins, that means they will add at least one additional Quad 1 win (@Ind, vs. Ill, @PSU, vs. Rutgers would all be Quad 1.)

Six Quad One wins will likely be twice as many as most anyone on the bubble has. Plus, no bad losses. 15-11 likely gets it done.

Heck, Maryland might get in with 13 wins.
 
Last edited:

Some guy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2014
Messages
8,746
Reaction score
1,817
Points
113
15 doesn't get it done. And I just don't see them reeling off 3 wins in a row when one is a road game and another is a solid Rutgers team.
15 wins does get it done if they win a game in the big ten tourney. Teams that are .500 overall are “on the bubble”
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
51,084
Reaction score
8,500
Points
113
15 quite likely gets it done. Who do you think the Gophers are going to be compared to?

They will be compared to Utah State, Colorado State, Boise State, Penn State, San Diego State, Western Kentucky, St. Louis, St. Bonaventure, BYU, VCU, Drake, Furman and others. Minnesota will have five wins better than many of those teams' best wins.

And, if things continue as they are and Michigan/Ohio State each get #1 seeds, then the Gophers will have double-digit wins over TWO #1 seeds in the tourney. No one can say that.

Currently, Minnesota holds wins over NET RANKING #3, #7, #8, #27, and #32. The Gophers have almost no chance for a bad loss (even losing at home to NW would be only be a Quad 3 loss, which isn't devastating.)

And, assuming they get to 15 wins, that means they will add at least one additional Quad 1 win (@Ind, vs. Ill, @PSU, vs. Rutgers would all be Quad 1.)

Six Quad One wins will likely be twice as many as most anyone on the bubble has. Plus, no bad losses. 15-11 likely gets it done.

Heck, Maryland might get in with 13 wins.
I think 15-11 would require 2 wins in the BTT (assuming we'd be playing on Wednesday in that case.) We were ~6 spots from the play-in game and 10 spots from being out as of Friday. If we go 2-4 down the stretch, I don't see how we don't fall at least that many spots.
 

tmvander

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Messages
1,855
Reaction score
869
Points
113
I think 15-11 would require 2 wins in the BTT (assuming we'd be playing on Wednesday in that case.) We were ~6 spots from the play-in game and 10 spots from being out as of Friday. If we go 2-4 down the stretch, I don't see how we don't fall at least that many spots.
They'd be on the bubble for sure but one of those wins is another quad 1...the quality wins would make it very hard to leave them out.

I'm not saying they're a lock at 15 wins but it's still plenty doable to get in with 15.

Knowing the gophers they'll get 15 just to make everyone sweat
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
51,084
Reaction score
8,500
Points
113
They'd be on the bubble for sure but one of those wins is another quad 1...the quality wins would make it very hard to leave them out.

I'm not saying they're a lock at 15 wins but it's still plenty doable to get in with 15.

Knowing the gophers they'll get 15 just to make everyone sweat
15 and a loss to Nebraska on weakling Wednesday would be most fitting.
 

tmvander

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Messages
1,855
Reaction score
869
Points
113
Haha well if that
15 and a loss to Nebraska on weakling Wednesday would be most fitting.
Haha buzzer beater...actually the gopher way would be to just lose out the rest of the way
 

WriterGoph

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2009
Messages
3,857
Reaction score
2,173
Points
113
I don't see how you can leave out a team who handily beat two #1 seeds and has 6 Quad 1 wins.

Any other year, that's a lock. It's only because there is so much anti-Pitino bile going around right now that people on this board are even having these kinds of hallucinations.
 

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
If we go 2-4 down the stretch, I don't see how we don't fall at least that many spots.
We wouldn't fall that many spots because the two wins would be decent to really good, and the other bubble teams are bubble teams for a reason -- not all ten are going to keep winning games. They will also potentially and likely be losing. The bubble, in fact, most years gets weaker as Selection Sunday approaches, not stronger. Who knows what this year holds, but right now it looks like an extremely weak bubble.

It would be hard to keep a team out which has wins over two #1 seeds and 6 Quad One wins, while keeping in other bubble teams with 1 or 2 Quad One wins, which most of the bubble will have. I mean for the fun of it, go check out the schedule and quality of wins of much of the bubble.

As an example, take Colorado State at 13-4 right now. They have played five Quad One games total (remember the Gophers have WON six Quad One games). The Rams are hanging their hat on wins over NET RANKING #23 San Diego State and #50 Utah State. That's it. They have two Quad One wins. UConn is bubbling at 9-5 overall and has two Quad One wins over #15 USC and #40 Xavier. They have played only two other Q1 games (four total). That's it.

Those are the type of teams the Gophers (with wins over #3, #7, #8, #23, #32, with at least one more) are going to be going against.

Look, getting in with 15 wins is no lock, but it is more likely we get in than miss out if we have 15 wins, in my opinion. Anything at 16 wins or over and we are locked.

You can't let your own passionate knowledge of the Gopher blemishes this year cloud your thinking when it comes to tourney chances. Be pissed with how they are playing. But, think like the committee when judging their resume. The committee is going to see the Gophers have wins over two #1 seeds and a bunch more. The committee in recent years has put the greatest value on quality of wins. The Gophers have that more than any other bubble team.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
51,084
Reaction score
8,500
Points
113
We wouldn't fall that many spots because the two wins would be decent to really good, and the other bubble teams are bubble teams for a reason -- not all ten are going to keep winning games. They will also potentially and likely be losing. The bubble, in fact, most years gets weaker as Selection Sunday approaches, not stronger. Who knows what this year holds, but right now it looks like an extremely weak bubble.

It would be hard to keep a team out which has wins over two #1 seeds and 6 Quad One wins, while keeping in other bubble teams with 1 or 2 Quad One wins, which most of the bubble will have. I mean for the fun of it, go check out the schedule and quality of wins of much of the bubble.

As an example, take Colorado State at 13-4 right now. They have played five Quad One games total (remember the Gophers have WON six Quad One games). The Rams are hanging their hat on wins over NET RANKING #23 San Diego State and #50 Utah State. That's it. They have two Quad One wins. UConn is bubbling at 9-5 overall and has two Quad One wins over #15 USC and #40 Xavier. They have played only two other Q1 games (four total). That's it.

Those are the type of teams the Gophers (with wins over #3, #7, #8, #23, #32, with at least one more) are going to be going against.

Look, getting in with 15 wins is no lock, but it is more likely we get in than miss out if we have 15 wins, in my opinion. Anything at 16 wins or over and we are locked.

You can't let your own passionate knowledge of the Gopher blemishes this year cloud your thinking when it comes to tourney chances. Be pissed with how they are playing. But, think like the committee when judging their resume. The committee is going to see the Gophers have wins over two #1 seeds and a bunch more. The committee in recent years has put the greatest value on quality of wins. The Gophers have that more than any other bubble team.
If they win two more games, one of them will be Northwestern. The other might be Penn State. Not great wins. You might be right, but I think 15-12 with an opening round BTT exit is less than 50/50 at best. Finishing 5-10 over your last 15 games does matter.
 

leib0039

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2019
Messages
401
Reaction score
316
Points
63
I do ultimately agree IF (its a hypothetical so RELAX) we won out at home and lost out on the road we would get in. Those wins are too good, that said I still wouldn't feel comfortable watching the selection show because 0 road wins feels like a pretty valid reason to leave a team out.
 

WriterGoph

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2009
Messages
3,857
Reaction score
2,173
Points
113
If they win two more games, one of them will be Northwestern. The other might be Penn State. Not great wins. You might be right, but I think 15-12 with an opening round BTT exit is less than 50/50 at best. Finishing 5-10 over your last 15 games does matter.
Its funny you're making the assumption our two wins would be over Northwestern and Penn State when we just beat Purdue a few days ago.

Our two wins could just the same be over Illinois and Rutgers.
 

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
If they win two more games, one of them will be Northwestern. The other might be Penn State. Not great wins. You might be right, but I think 15-12 with an opening round BTT exit is less than 50/50 at best. Finishing 5-10 over your last 15 games does matter.
Penn State is currently #37 in Net Ranking. A win at Penn State would actually be a strong Quad One ROAD win on the resume. That would be huge on a blind resume. Again, think like the committee, not like a fan.

All eight of Minnesota's losses have come to Net Ranked teams #36 or better.

As much as we hate how the Gophers are playing, they have a strong resume. They are currently not on the bubble. If they go 2-4 and finish with 15 wins, they will be firmly on the bubble, but have a superior resume to most bubble peers. That's why I feel a 15-12 Gopher team will get in over a 17-5 Western Kentucky, or a 15-4 St. Bonaventure, or a 16-6 Utah State, although the bubble is so weak, all four could make it.
 
Last edited:

tmvander

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Messages
1,855
Reaction score
869
Points
113
I do ultimately agree IF (its a hypothetical so RELAX) we won out at home and lost out on the road we would get in. Those wins are too good, that said I still wouldn't feel comfortable watching the selection show because 0 road wins feels like a pretty valid reason to leave a team out.
3 wins including wins over Illinois and Rutgers will not leave us sweating...they'll be closer to a 6 seed than out of the tourney
 

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
I do ultimately agree IF (its a hypothetical so RELAX) we won out at home and lost out on the road we would get in. Those wins are too good, that said I still wouldn't feel comfortable watching the selection show because 0 road wins feels like a pretty valid reason to leave a team out.
If we win out at home, we are an absolute lock, road wins or not. There will be no need to be nervous on Selection Sunday if we win out at home.

Winning out at home would give Minnesota wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #4, #7, #8, #27, #29, and #32, #91, and #94 (of course those rankings will change slightly before tourney selection time). That is nine wins over the Top 100.

Bubble team Xavier (11-3), for example, has four wins over Top 100 teams, but only one win over a Top 70 team (#17 Oklahoma). The other three Top 100 wins are ranked #70-#81.

Zero chance a 16-10 team with that stack of wins and no losses from anything worse that #50 gets left out of the tourney, even if winless on the road.
 
Last edited:

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
I grabbed a coin out of the drawer. I flipped it twice. It landed on heads twice. Do you think it's correct to conclude that this coin will land on heads 100% of the time, based on two samples?
Yes, you clearly have a trick coin.

No, I get it. Obviously, Michigan was the clear favorite and we pulled off an upset.

I was just messing with you.
 

howeda7

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 22, 2008
Messages
51,084
Reaction score
8,500
Points
113
Penn State is currently #37 in Net Ranking. A win at Penn State would actually be a strong Quad One ROAD win on the resume. That would be huge on a blind resume. Again, think like the committee, not like a fan.

All eight of Minnesota's losses have come to Net Ranked teams #36 or better.

As much as we hate how the Gophers are playing, they have a strong resume. They are currently not on the bubble. If they go 2-4 and finish with 15 wins, they will be firmly on the bubble, but have a superior resume to most bubble peers. That's why I feel a 15-12 Gopher team will get in over a 17-5 Western Kentucky, or a 15-4 St. Bonaventure, or a 16-6 Utah State, although the bubble is so weak, all four could make it.
If we beat Illinois, I agree 8-11 might do it. Penn State is a paper tiger and the committee isn't blind, they're not going to give us big credit for that win.
 

tjgopher

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,675
Reaction score
369
Points
83
If we beat Illinois, I agree 8-11 might do it. Penn State is a paper tiger and the committee isn't blind, they're not going to give us big credit for that win.
Paper tiger? Have you seen the teams Utah State, Richmond, VCU, BYU, Boise State, Western Kentucky, and Drake have played and beaten? Beating Penn State would be most of those team's first or second best win, period.

Penn State was just 5 spots away from being "IN" Joe Lunardi's most recent bracket projection on Friday. Losing to Nebraska clearly ended that, but still, a Gopher win at Penn State will not be ignored.

Again, you have to compare a 16-11 or 15-12 Gophers to teams they would be fighting for spots. None of them are really very good. Maryland might make it at 13 wins. Syracuse hasn't beaten anyone and they could make it.
 
Last edited:

tmvander

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
Messages
1,855
Reaction score
869
Points
113
If we beat Illinois, I agree 8-11 might do it. Penn State is a paper tiger and the committee isn't blind, they're not going to give us big credit for that win.
Hard to say...committee can't use net rankings to establish quad wins then say a quad 1 win is trash on paper. If that's the case they need a new system even if penn st is trash.
 

Northeastgopher

Active member
Joined
Nov 9, 2019
Messages
76
Reaction score
103
Points
33
If we win out at home, we are an absolute lock, road wins or not. There will be no need to be nervous on Selection Sunday if we win out at home.

Winning out at home would give Minnesota wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #4, #7, #8, #27, #29, and #32, #91, and #94 (of course those rankings will change slightly before tourney selection time). That is nine wins over the Top 100.

Bubble team Xavier (11-3), for example, has four wins over Top 100 teams, but only one win over a Top 70 team (#17 Oklahoma). The other three Top 100 wins are ranked #70-#81.

Zero chance a 16-10 team with that stack of wins and no losses from anything worse that #50 gets left out of the tourney, even if winless on the road.
Seeing posts like this really makes you realize how difficult the schedule has been this year. The big ten is crazy good.
 
  • Like
Reactions: sal

WriterGoph

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 21, 2009
Messages
3,857
Reaction score
2,173
Points
113
Just saw a blurb in Chip's column that just went up on the Strib: our 5 ranked wins is tied for first in the country and also tied for a school record (and we are playing at least 6 fewer games this year).
 

GopherGangsta

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 19, 2019
Messages
651
Reaction score
409
Points
63
Just saw a blurb in Chip's column that just went up on the Strib: our 5 ranked wins is tied for first in the country and also tied for a school record (and we are playing at least 6 fewer games this year).
54-90
 

Otis

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2014
Messages
4,171
Reaction score
923
Points
113
The Gophers should get in based on their Quality wins even with a winless road record.

As Clint Eastwood would say, "Disserve's got nothing to do with it."
 

Some guy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2014
Messages
8,746
Reaction score
1,817
Points
113
If we win out at home, we are an absolute lock, road wins or not. There will be no need to be nervous on Selection Sunday if we win out at home.

Winning out at home would give Minnesota wins over NET RANKED teams #3, #4, #7, #8, #27, #29, and #32, #91, and #94 (of course those rankings will change slightly before tourney selection time). That is nine wins over the Top 100.

Bubble team Xavier (11-3), for example, has four wins over Top 100 teams, but only one win over a Top 70 team (#17 Oklahoma). The other three Top 100 wins are ranked #70-#81.

Zero chance a 16-10 team with that stack of wins and no losses from anything worse that #50 gets left out of the tourney, even if winless on the road.
Yes.
to get jumped by teams on the bubble watch right now the gophers would need to lose AND the bubble teams would need quality wins. And they likely don’t have enough games to pick up the quality wins.

15 wins is more likely in the tourney than not.
16 wins is a lock
 

Otis

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2014
Messages
4,171
Reaction score
923
Points
113
Ok, SS, What if this happens:

@ Indiana L

Illinois W (by double digits)

NW L
@PSU L
Rutgers L


Gophers end up with 14 wins but have beaten Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State and Illinois. Add in their other Quad 1 wins.

Is that enough to get a way under .500 B1G team into the tournament? (which isn't played at the barn.)
 
Top Bottom