Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

howeda7

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So we have to win out to get to the magic 17 win mark prior to the B1G tournament.

Northwestern - Injuries alone make this a hard game to predict. A full strength squad would have this in the bag one would think, but who knows this year. I expect a closely fought victory. 55% chance of winning.

@ Nebraska - Um, it's a road game. But, it is Nebraska! Maybe the Gophers get a 90% healed Robbins for this game and pass him the ball inside and get 40 FT attempts like they should. this is a 50-50 game here.

@ Penn State - Nothing is ever easy in Happy Valley. Even when PSU really really stinks we struggle to win at Happy Valley. I give us a 37.5% chance of stealing victory from the clutches of defeat in this one. In other words, if we win, it won't be pretty.

Rutgers - Let's face it. Rutgers plays hard Pat Riley Knicks type basketball. The Gophers try to play Loyola Marymount Paul Westhead type basketball without the shooting ability. Which means while the Gophers almost certainly will NOT WIN this game. They most likely will not get blown out. Look for a long boring game where the Gophers never hold a lead except for maybe in the early minutes and never quite put together a run to get control and reclaim control of the game. 15% chance of victory.

16-11 at best 15-12 most likely and 14-13 staring the Gophers in the mirror.

Weakling Wednesday here we come!
15% chance of beating Rutgers at home? Come on. They will be favored in all likelihood.
 

Otis

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Liam played for 14 minutes the first time they played but contributed 7 points and 8 boards plus 3 blocks. Nebraska has legitimately zero players who can match up with him when healthy. This would be like our OOC games in terms of matchups for him. Yes I watch the games. Do you? CBB is about matchups and Nebraska doesn't matchup well against us when healthy. We didn't feed him the ball that game either and shot 22% from 3 and won by 18. If Liam isn't healthy, yeah it's a 50/50 game but that wasn't the point of the post
It's a toss up no matter what is all I'm saying.
 

Otis

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15% chance of beating Rutgers at home? Come on. They will be favored in all likelihood.
I like your confidence! We will have to see by then.

If Pitino is complaining about injuries to everyone from Carr to the lead cheerleader by then, 15% may be a little high.
 

tjgopher

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That sounds like a strong prediction if they end the regular season 16-11. However, if they do that, they will have achieved 16 wins at the end of the regular season by virtue of playing three of last four against teams with overall losing records. If they lose the first game of the Big Ten tournament to Maryland, Indiana, or Rutgers that won't advance their cause. The magnitude of their losses (9 double digit losses) is as impressive as their quality wins and there are more of them.

Except those losses aren't terrible in comparison to the other bubble teams.

Losing at the BTT to Maryland (#31), Indiana (#53) or Rutgers (#30) is a Quad 1 loss.

That's the beauty of playing in the toughest league in the country.

We are about to play the four worst teams in the Big Ten, but in relative terms, they are all Top 150 teams.

Northwestern (#96) is a Quad 3 game
Nebraska (#143) is a Quad 3 game.
Penn State (#39) is a Quad 1 game.
Rutgers (#30) is a Quad 1 game.

There are bubble teams playing Net Ranked teams in the #200s and #300s.

For example, Minnesota's final four games come against Net Ranked teams #96, #143, #39, and #30.

Other bubble teams last four games:

St. Bonaventure: #82, #92, #146, #92
Xavier: #80, #20, #99, #86
Colorado State: #317, #317, #304, #190
Western Kentucky: #296, #296, #136, #136
Stanford: #186, #121, #47, #94
Seton Hall: #77, #130, #41, #99
Louisville: #73, #15, #51, #49
 

Go Gophs

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15% chance of beating Rutgers at home? Come on. They will be favored in all likelihood.

I think it is closer to 5% they win that game.

Most likely scenario is a win tonight a win against Nebraska and 2 blowout losses to the other 2.

We are not playing well at all right now, we are injured, our coach has given up and so have many of the fans and people surrouding the program. Nebraska and NW are really bad. The other 2 are legit teams.

By the way, I would love to eat my words, but we can get away not playing well, and not playing hard and beat Neb and NW. The other 2 they will have to work(rare) and play well(also rare).

Does 2-2 - 15-12 get them in? Because I see this as the most likely scenario.
 

cjbfbp

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Except those losses aren't terrible in comparison to the other bubble teams.

Losing at the BTT to Maryland (#31), Indiana (#53) or Rutgers (#30) is a Quad 1 loss.

That's the beauty of playing in the toughest league in the country.

We are about to play the four worst teams in the Big Ten, but in relative terms, they are all Top 150 teams.

Northwestern (#96) is a Quad 3 game
Nebraska (#143) is a Quad 3 game.
Penn State (#39) is a Quad 1 game.
Rutgers (#30) is a Quad 1 game.

There are bubble teams playing Net Ranked teams in the #200s and #300s.

For example, Minnesota's final four games come against Net Ranked teams #96, #143, #39, and #30.

Other bubble teams last four games:

St. Bonaventure: #82, #92, #146, #92
Xavier: #80, #20, #99, #86
Colorado State: #317, #317, #304, #190
Western Kentucky: #296, #296, #136, #136
Stanford: #186, #121, #47, #94
Seton Hall: #77, #130, #41, #99
Louisville: #73, #15, #51, #49

There are only so many teams they can take from one conference. I know Lunardi still has 10 conference teams going but I'm not convinced that will happen.
 

bmb5270

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Two years ago there was talk that Pitino was in danger. Then we beat Purdue late in the season then again in the BTT to get in to the NCAA. While the victory over Louisville was great it didn’t do anything to get this program to a higher level. I feel we’d e much better off if we were in year two of Nate Oats or Musselman. If they don’t make the move this year it just delays the inevitable.
 

Bad Gopher

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Two years ago there was talk that Pitino was in danger. Then we beat Purdue late in the season then again in the BTT to get in to the NCAA. While the victory over Louisville was great it didn’t do anything to get this program to a higher level. I feel we’d e much better off if we were in year two of Nate Oats or Musselman. If they don’t make the move this year it just delays the inevitable.
We had our chances to hire either of those superstars, and we stuck with someone that we all have known the whole time was a dead end. When opportunity knocks... This will be a classic case study of what happens when you kick the ball down the road, when you choose the path of least resistance instead of ripping the band-aid off. Missing out on those guys could potentially end up as bad as missing out on John Wooden, except in this case it was our own stupidity rather than an act of nature.
 

Some guy

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Back to the thread topic. I'm going to slightly disagree from the group and offer up the idea that 16 total wins is still likely enough to get them in the NCAA Tournament.

The Gophers have enough good wins over quality teams to be a tourney team now. If they go 3-1 and get to 16 wins, that will ensure they have at least one more Quad 1 win and at least one road win. Those two things help. There will be no bubble teams with the quantity of quality wins the Gophers have, and in most cases not even close. The Gophers will have 4 or 5 wins better than many of the bubble teams' best win. So, that's a good thing.

So, why would they NOT make the tourney? Two reasons. The Gophers have two things going against them right now.

1) A Net Ranking of #61
2) An overall record close to .500

The overall Net Ranking is a problem because they haven't play efficiently and have been blown out in too many games. So, that will be a problem that likely won't be fixed in a big way. However, going 3-1 and playing reasonably well and getting to 16 wins would likely push MN Net Ranking closer to 40 than 60. So, that helps. Anything in the 40s will be acceptable for the committee.

Going 3-1 puts them at 16-11 overall heading to Indianapolis. A loss in the BTT first game would put MN at 16-12 for the selection committee. The thing we forget is 16-12 this year, when only playing 28 total games is a lot like 20-12 most years when you have an addition four buy games on the schedule. I believe the Gophers at 16-12 will be enough over .500 to be acceptable by the committee in a year that many teams will be trying to get in with 22 games played or fewer against much less competition.

At the end of the day, the quality of wins, the strength of schedule, especially when compared to the rest of the bubble will be too good to leave a 16-win MN out.
16 could get them in.
17 would get them in.

They aren’t getting to either of those numbers
 

Face The Facts

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This is become an annual tradition where SS sets the number, and Gopher Basketball inexplicably struggles all year to get to the number SS sets.

Don't recall any year where the Gophers hit the number without sweating it out.
 

Blizzard

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The BracketMatrix still has the Gophers in a number of brackets. Big change from yesterday though.

 

MplsGopher

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I could see getting the @Neb win if Robbins can get back.

@PSU and especially Rutgers, just don't see it.
 

Some guy

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The BracketMatrix still has the Gophers in a number of brackets. Big change from yesterday though.

Yeah they are firmly on the bubble right now. All depends on how you balance:
SOS
Wins
Quality wins
Metrics

People whose number one is SOS and Quality wins are still going to have MN in. Which is why finishing 3-0 and I still think MN is an 8-9 seed.
but I think they finish 1-2 or 0-3
 

howeda7

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SS, How many wins to get into the NIT?

I'm afraid the NCAA ship has sailed.
I'm shocked they're having an NIT and I expect a boatload of schools to pass on it. These kids are tired and not interested in more bubbles etc. to play in the freaking NIT.
 

leib0039

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I'm shocked they're having an NIT and I expect a boatload of schools to pass on it. These kids are tired and not interested in more bubbles etc. to play in the freaking NIT.
Would be interesting to see what the Gophers would do if that played out. Robbins/Carr/Gabe not 100%, Pitino on his way out, seems unlikely they would play right?
 

howeda7

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Would be interesting to see what the Gophers would do if that played out. Robbins/Carr/Gabe not 100%, Pitino on his way out, seems unlikely they would play right?
If Pitino is fired, it gives them an easy excuse to pass. But in general, I expect teams to give players a vote, I bet a lot of the power 5 ones will vote no.
 

cjbfbp

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I'm shocked they're having an NIT and I expect a boatload of schools to pass on it. These kids are tired and not interested in more bubbles etc. to play in the freaking NIT.

Supposedly the NIT will have only 16 teams this year and probably no automatic qualifiers. The games are also supposed to be in the same place so no team will play at home. Seems like an NIT worth playing in but I don't suspect the Gophers will even make that if the current trajectory continues.
 

Bad Gopher

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This gets the juices flowing. If this bracket holds, MSU would beat Maryland and get a crack at Michigan on Friday. That would be appointment TV.

 

MplsGopher

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So the best possible case is a 10v7 and a "third time's the charm" game against Rutgers or Maryland?
 

howeda7

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This gets the juices flowing. If this bracket holds, MSU would beat Maryland and get a crack at Michigan on Friday. That would be appointment TV.

Wouldn't that make like 3 Sparty - Michigan match ups in like 8 days or something? Crazy.
 

howeda7

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How many wins to avoid Weakling Wednesday in the BTT?
 

Otis

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Weds we are a lock for after the next 2 losses
 

howeda7

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We have to win the last two to match the B1G record of the vaunted 2019-20 team.
 
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